Jordy Nelson obviously busted out last year in a big way. My concern is the limited number of targets he received (94), basically he did a lot with a little. His YPC and TD/catch ratio was through the roof. I’m not saying he can’t repeat that success, but fantasy football is about limiting risk and selling or buying at the right time.
For me personally Jordy is a top 3 dynasty sell this offseason due to what you can fetch for him right now added in with what I think will be a regression in production moving forward. Rodgers is one of the best at spreading the ball around. Case in point, Mr. Finley, his expectations last preseason were gigantic. Well, many of his owners were pulling their hair out due to his inconsistent performance in 2011. He wasn’t hurt, his athletic ability was as good as ever, so why the decline in per game numbers? Simply enough, it was Rodgers spreading the ball around to the open guy. If you’re not the #1 target Jennings then your numbers will probably fluctuate quite a bit year to year.
Back to Jordy, if you think his targets increase dramatically this year then he has a chance to match last year’s numbers. Personally, I’m just not buying it, my opinion is that his targets will remain flat due to the offense he plays in and skilled players around him. This means he has to match that ridiculous TD to catch ratio and YPC average. I’ll let someone else take that gamble. He won’t be on any of my teams. If I was an owner I’d be selling high, and I’m definitely not buying his current inflated market price which seems to be a top 16 WR. He’ll be lucky to beat out Finley just to be the #2 target leader on his own team, and don’t forget the possible emergence of Cobb who flashed big time talent last year. I just don’t understand how anyone can value him as a high-end #2 WR when you really break his numbers down and study them from last season.
What’s your take?