The Daily Dose – DraftKings


By Bryan Sweet, DFW Senior Writer and Co-Owner, @FantasyFreakDFW

Welcome to your DFS Daily Dose!  Our goal with this article is to bring to light some players who can help you profit in daily fantasy football.  If you’re new to the scene, I suggest you read this post to get a general overview of what we’re going to be talking about in this article every week.  Once you’ve finished getting caught up, rejoin us for some strategy for taking down both cash games and GPPs on DraftKings.

Well DFS fans, this is it.  The last weekend to participate in daily fantasy football.  Much like last weekend, keep your money in play down as the volatility makes for a tough weekend to predict and profit from.  I hope you’ve enjoyed following along this season as much as I’ve enjoyed bringing these articles to you!  Maybe it was a profitable venture and we can look forward to increasing our bankroll next season.  Enjoy your final dose and let’s see if we can make some money!

CASH GAMES

Cash games are the bankroll builders of daily fantasy football.  Everyone wants to hit a life-changing GPP, but you’ve got to have money to enter those tournaments.  If you can be successful in cash games, and play a higher dollar amount in these versus GPPs, you should be able to build a sustainable bankroll to last throughout the season and beyond.  So, who are some targets on DraftKings that can help lead us to a profit in cash games?

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys ($6,000, 20.1 projected points)
The Dallas-Green Bay matchup is the best on the slate on paper, and checks in with the highest expected point total (O/U 52.5) according to Vegas.  This game could very well turn into a shootout, which bodes well for both QBs.  For this lineup, we’ll look towards the less expensive option and lock in Prescott.  Green Bay has been in the holiday spirit recently, allowing QBs to run up gaudy numbers on a weekly basis.  Sam Bradford hit 29.78 DK points in week 16, Matthew Stafford got to 20.88 in week 17 and Eli Manning (in a game where his WRs couldn’t catch a cold) managed 14.06 points.  Prescott lit up this defense for 19.48 points back in week six, and we think a repeat performance might be in order.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys ($8,500, 24.1 projected points)
Elliott is almost certainly going to be the highest-owned player on this slate, mainly because of the $2,000 price difference between him and Le’Veon Bell.  Dallas is favored by Vegas against Green Bay, and if they’re correct that means a healthy dose of Zeke to chew up clock and close out the game.  Elliott put up 22.4 DK points in week six, and that was without Dez Bryant to attract some of the defense’s attention.  Elliott is a three-down back and has a presence in the passing game (32 receptions on the season) and should be the focus of the Cowboys offense to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field as much as possible.

Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers ($7,000, 23.8 projected points)
We now know that Jordy Nelson will miss this week’s game against Dallas, although it was suspected all week, and Adams immediately rises to the top of the WR value heap.  Randall Cobb was the biggest beneficiary of Nelson’s injury last week, but Adams saw the most targets on the day (12) and put together a nice line of eight catches for 125 yards and one TD.  While Cobb is the big play threat, Adams seems to be who Rodgers looks to most often when Nelson is off the field.  As mentioned above, we expect the Packers to lean on the right arm of Rodgers and somebody is going to benefit.  Cobb is the cheaper option, but Adams has the higher floor and is a better fit for cash games this week.

Utilizing these players, and remembering our goals of 150 total points and players with consistently high floors, we could put together a lineup consisting of the following.

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY  PROJECTION
QB Dak Prescott/DAL $6,000 20.1
RB Ezekiel Elliott/DAL $8,500 24.1
RB Devonta Freeman/ATL $5,900 17.6
WR Davante Adams/GB $7,000 23.8
WR Dez Bryant/DAL $6,600 15.6
WR Jermaine Kearse/SEA $3,300 8.4
TE Jason Witten/DAL $3,500 10.6
FLEX Spencer Ware/KC $5,200 15.0
DEF New England Patriots $4,000 14.6
TOTAL $50,000 149.8

Going all in on Dallas in our cash games, and I feel OK about it.  Elliott is going to get his, and Bryant didn’t even play the first time these two teams met.  Witten is a solid option and should see a decent workload against a porous Green Bay defense.  Freeman will be a key cog in Atlanta’s offensive attack and should see plenty of work.  Kearse is our cheap WR option, but just needs a long play to make value.  Ware should be the centerpiece of the Kansas City gameplan as their focus should be to keep Ben Roethlisberger and that potent offense off the field as much as possible.  New England’s defense might be 100% owned, but they are BY FAR the best defense on the board this week.  Plug and play.

GPPs

Life. Changing. Money.  That’s the draw for GPPs with seven-figure top prizes and low entry fees, but how can one be taken down?  The easy answer is it can’t without everything going your way, but we can try and tilt those odds just a little by focusing on those with high ceilings and low projected ownership.  Let’s see if we can find some of the players who fit that bill.

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons ($7,000, 20.7 projected points)
Ryan might be quite popular this week, but the chance that the Seahawks defense of old shows up has to be somewhat of a concern.  Ryan has put up an MVP-caliber season, and might be looking for some revenge after falling to Seattle in week six, partially due to a missed pass interference call.  Ryan still posted 335 yards and three TDs in that game with one INT (26.6 DK points).  With defensive cornerstone Earl Thomas out, however, those numbers could improve.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots ($5,800, 11.7 projected points)
The Patriots enter this game as one of the biggest favorites ever in the divisional round as Vegas has them as more than a two-TD favorite.  While it stands to reason Tom Brady and his receiving corps will do most of the heavy lifting, Blount often goes unnoticed as an integral part of this offense.  Blount pounded in 18 TDs this season and had a good outing against Houston back in week three with 105 yards and two TDs.  Houston also had J.J. Watt on the field in that week three game and New England was without Brady, so things are much different this time around.  If Houston can hang around into the latter part of the second half, Blount could crush value at a pretty low price.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($4,300, 10.2 projected points)
The recent emergence of Tyreek Hill and the evolution of Travis Kelce have seemingly made Maclin an afterthought in Kansas City, but he’s the perfect candidate for a GPP lineup this week.  Maclin will be very low owned, mainly because of his struggles this season and the nature of Kansas City’s short passing game.  However, Pittsburgh will certainly be focused on stopping Hill and Kelce in the passing game, leaving Maclin in advantageous situations he still has the ability to excel in.  This is a true boom-bust option, but one that could lead to the top of the leaderboard in GPP contests this week..

Here is what one of my lineups will look like this week, including the players I listed above.

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY  PROJECTION
QB Matt Ryan/ATL $7,000 20.7
RB LeGarrette Blount/NE $5,800 11.7
RB Ezekiel Elliott/DAL $8,500 24.1
WR Jeremy Maclin/KC $4,300 10.2
WR Davante Adams/GB $7,000 23.8
WR Eli Rogers/PIT $3,900 9.0
TE Jason Witten/DAL $3,500 10.6
FLEX Devonta Freeman/ATL $5,900 17.6
DEF New England Patriots $4,000 14.6
TOTAL $49,900 142.3

We’ve got a lot of crossover with our cash game lineup, but it usually only takes a couple “against the grain” players to finish high in GPP contests.  With Ladarius Green ruled out, Rogers gets a nice bump in the receiving game and moving the game to Sunday night to avoid the icy weather will benefit both teams.

Thanks for checking out the last edition of the Daily Dose.  Best of luck!