By: Luke Grilli (@LGrilli88)
Sometimes guys have off years and their stock heading into the next year’s draft/off season has plummeted. A player may find themselves as a 1st round pick and a valuable trade chip (ya I’m talking to you Ryan Mathews) in 2011, only to be drafted in the 5th round of start ups in 2013 and can be had for a package of lesser players/picks in a trade. Using DFW’s ADP, I have found a few players who are due for a bounce back season in 2013 and beyond.
Matthew Stafford- QB Detroit Lions
2012 ADP: 2.05
2012 Positional Ranking: QB3
2013 ADP: 6.08
2013 Positional Ranking: QB9
What happened in 2012?: You can take a look at one stat category and see why owners have soured on Matthew Stafford. In 2011, Stafford threw for 41 TDs vs. 20 in 2012. Even though Stafford’s passing yards were similar from 2011 to 2012, his passing attempts increased by 64 in 2012 to 727 total attempts. So if his attempts were up and yardage was similar, where did all the TDs go? In 2012, the Lions lost both Nate Burleson and Ryan Broyles to injury for an extended period of time. While it already was to begin with, the Lions were even more so the Calvin Johnson show. Stafford targeted a heavily covered Calvin Johnson a ridiculous 204 times (28%!), and unfortunately for Stafford and Megatron owners, the blanketed corners were quick to bring the receiver down inside the red zone. Out came trotting Mikel LeShoure who proved to be one of the best red zone scoring backs in the league, scoring nine TDs and converting six of his seven goal line carries.
On top of the lack of TDs, 2012 was the year of young QBs. Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, RG3 and Russell Wilson all jumped onto the scene, sending Stafford down a few spots.
What can we expect in 2013 and beyond?: 41 was a high TD number, but Stafford will be tied to Calvin Johnson for the foreseeable future and is only 25. The Lions should be getting Broyles and Burleson back from injury and have added pass catching extraordinaire Reggie Bush, making the Lions offense scarier than it has ever been. Stafford will flirt with 5,000 yards year to year and I expect 30-35 TDs perennially.
I currently have Stafford locked in as my QB5 and would take him late in the 4th round or early in the 5th.
Ahmad Bradshaw- RB Indianapolis Colts
2012 ADP: 4.12
2012 Positional Ranking: RB18
2013 ADP: 9.10
2013 Positional Ranking: RB38
What happened in 2012?: Ahmad Bradshaw has always had a “buyer beware” tag associated with him. While he is a powerful runner that is great at pass blocking and catching the ball out of the backfield, injuries have always been a problem. On the Injury Report 12 our of the 16 games in 2012 (and missing 2 games), Bradshaw can be a frustrating player to have on your squad. Yet with all those injuries, he still had his 2nd 1,000+ yard rushing season and finished as a low end RB2.
What can we expect in 2013 and beyond?: With the emergence of Andre Brown and drafting of David Wilson in 2012, the writing was on the wall for Ahmad Bradshaw’s departure from the Big Apple. After rumors of signing with the Bengals and Packers pre draft, Bradshaw eventually found a great situation in Indianapolis. His ADP is a bit skewed as most of the drafts took place before he was signed, but I would expect him to be taken in the 6th-7th round in most drafts and take Vick Ballard’s spot as the RB28, making him a solid Flex with RB2 potential.
Antonio Brown- WR Pittsburgh Steelers
2012 ADP: 4.08
2012 Positional Ranking: WR20
2013 ADP: 6.06
2013 Positional Ranking: WR25
What happened in 2012?: Between injuries to his starting QB and himself, Antonio Brown had a let down season in 2012. Let’s be real here, the whole Steelers offense was a mess once Roethlisberger went down and the running game struggled to do anything of significance. Unfortunately for those who grabbed Brown as a 4th round pick in 2012, the numbers put up were not worth the price they paid for him. Brown finished as a borderline WR3, far off his pace of WR2 from 2011.
What can we expect in 2013 and beyond?: OK so the drop from a positional standpoint isn’t much to fret over, but the two round drop is something you can capitalize on. Instead of drafting Antonio Brown in 2013 as your WR2 (I have him pegged as my WR20 right now.), you can wait a few rounds and grab him in the 6th and possibly get him as your WR3. By doing that, you give your team a chance to grab another quality RB and/or WR, while having Brown as your WR3 when he has the skills to put up WR2 numbers.
Kenny Britt- WR Tennessee Titans
2012 ADP: 3.01
2012 Positional Ranking: WR8
2013 ADP: 7.09
2013 Positional Ranking: WR34
What happened in 2012?: 2012 was a miserable year for Kenny Britt and his fantasy owners. A 2011 Week 3 ACL injury ended what could have been a career year for Britt. Not only did it kill his 2011 season, but also his 2012 season. Britt failed to fully recover and was never 100% healthy during the 2012 season, as he finished with a 45/589/4 stat line. Definitely not the numbers of a WR1, which he was drafted as in 2011.
What can we expect in 2013 and beyond?: I firmly believe that 2013 will be the first complete season that Kenny Britt puts together in the NFL. Reports say that he looked great in OTAs and is not having any knee issues. While Jake Locker will keep Britt from ever becoming a true WR1, I think that 2013 could see Britt post a 75/1100/10 stat line and be drafted as a WR2 in the 5th round. Now, what is going to happen in 2014 after he gets paid? We all know Britt is a talent, but he needs to keep his head on straight. So far (knock on wood), he has been fairly quiet and kept himself out of trouble. Let’s see how long that lasts…
These are a few guys I think you can get a decent return off of in your 2013 draft and off seasons. If you have any players you think will out produce their ADP, let it be known in the comments or tweet them to me.