Building a Dynasty: Part 2
By Brian Luzier (@TheFFBoss)
Since January DFW has held nine mock drafts to help our readers establish an ADP baseline. This info is valuable in a plethora of ways, some of which have been touched on, and some which haven’t yet. Today I will be explaining to you how I would use this data in a startup draft to build a powerhouse dynasty capable of running your league for years.
This is the second of four articles in which I will break down how I would draft a team using the ADP data DFW has provided. I will spend three articles breaking draft slots down into three tiers, top (picks 1-4), middle (5-8), and bottom (9-12), and one article focusing on deeper sleepers I like in general. I will select players who are picked either within the pick range, or slightly after, nearly assuring you of being able to mimic my draft if you choose to. Obviously not all drafts are the same, and especially when it comes to later picks, player values can vary dramatically depending on who’s in the room, but using ADP to plan your build is a proven way of building a strong team. I’ve touched on how I think trading in a startup is a necessity before, but for this article I’ll assume no trading is allowed. I’ll go ten rounds deep into the draft to show you how to build the nucleus of a team. After round 10 I think drafting ANYONE is fair game, I’ll have more on this later.
Other assumptions I’m working with:
- 12 Team PPR
- 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 WRT FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF
- 25 PYADS/PT, 10 RuYDS/PT, 10 ReYDS/PT
- No return bonuses
- No yardage or big play bonuses
In this article I’ll show you the team I’d want to build if I was drafting cleanup, enjoy!
Round 1, Picks 5-8
LeSean McCoy (8), RB, PHI – There’s no better way to push for a title run than anchoring your team with a consistent, top tier running back. Coming off a 20 TD campaign in 2012 expectations were unreasonably high for the Pitt product and he was in the discussion for the 1st overall selection along with Rice and Foster. While last season was a minor disappointment he did manage to put up almost 100 yds/gm and scored 5 TDs in only 13 games. I’m happy to grab a player who I expect to rebound and play like a top 5 RB. Additionally he’s got 5 years of experience but is only 24 years old. His concussion last season doesn’t bother me.
Round 2, Picks 17-20
Jimmy Graham (18), TE, NOS – There are a lot of things to like about Jimmy Graham, and very few I can think of to dislike his prospects for 2013. He’s getting Sean Payton back, and is coming off back to back seasons with 85+ catches and an average of 1146 yds/season. I’m probably beating a dead horse here but he’s my number one TE and is in a league of his own after the recent Gronk/Hernandez news. The positional advantage he gives you week in and week out is hard to replicate.
Round 3, Picks 29-32
Chris Johnson (30), RB, TEN – Another bounceback candidate, his stock has slipped entirely too far. I can understand some wanting to avoid him if you’re in “rebuild” mode, but as a team looking to win I love CJ as my RB2. He has missed only one game in the last 5 seasons (although he has had some serious duds along the way) and has had at least 1,047 yards every season of his entire career. Add in the additions the Titans have made to their line this offseason and a healthy Britt to take a player out of the box and you have a recipe for success.
Round 4, Picks 41-44
Justin Blackmon (42), WR, JAC – Interestingly enough I made this choice just as news of his suspension was breaking. Is it bad news? Yes. Is it devastating? No. Blackmon appears to be headed toward the depths of knuckleheadedness at times (2 DUIs prior to being drafted) but his skills were fully on display towards the end of last season. He is not an ideal WR1, but he can evolve into a stud and has his whole career ahead of him. We can compensate for this by picking up an older receiver later on.
Round 5, Picks 53-56
Matt Stafford (60), QB, DET – Averaging 5,000 yards over the past two seasons and this man is getting no love. He isn’t sexy, and his mechanics sometimes make me want to cry, but when you air it out 727 times and have the best receiver in the game catching your toss ups I can’t be too worried about a lack of production. Also remember that Megatron was stopped inside the 1 yard line SIX TIMES last season, so his TD numbers should rise. I’m expecting him to hover around 30.
Round 6, Picks 65-68
Josh Gordon (66), WR, CLE – While another young receiver sitting at my WR2 spot may seem questionable, when you think of what this man has done, and what he’s capable of doing your heart should start to race. Seriously, he didn’t even play football in 2011 and still finished with the 3rd most catches of any rookie. His ceiling is sky high.
Round 7, Picks 77-80
Kendall Wright (86), WR, TEN – I know, I know, another sophomore WR, and one who’s team just drafted Justin Hunter none-the-less. Still, any receiver leading his team in receptions is worth looking at this late as an upside WR3. Britt will be drawing doubles the whole season which will allow for some room for Wright to run free. In 2014 Britt is a free agent and the offense could belong to Hunter and Wright.
Round 8, Picks 89-92
Steve Smith (98), WR, CAR – Here’s the veteran WR selection which we can count on to stabilize us throughout the season. Expecting Gordon, Blackmon, and Wright to reach their potential is a very risky proposition, but adding an older but still productive player is a great way to balance your team out. He is 33, but should have 2-3 more years of top 20 production in him, and that will be more than enough of a stop gap to bring along our younger receivers.
Round 9, Picks 101-104
Ben Tate (103), RB, HOU – An upside play. I feel comfortable slotting Tate in as a top RB2 if Foster goes down for a stretch, and a mid-level RB2 on another team. Fortunately, if I’m reading the Houston front office correctly Tate will be released at the end of 2013 and will be free to choose a team he feels is best for him. With the absurd amount of rookie RBs the Texans have brought in this offseason (5 I believe), and the way the have been running Foster into the ground I think they plan on letting Tate walk when his rookie deal is up rather than paying him the money he deserves. I expect his value to rise steadily over the next 12 months.
Round 10, Picks 113-116
Lance Moore (118), WR, NOS – Another underrated and productive WR we can count on to start in case of an emergency. Moore has always been spot startable but last year he really emerged as a legitimate receiver posting 65 receptions on 105 targets for 6 touchdowns- the fewest TDs he’s put up since 2009 (2). He is receiving very little respect given the opportunity he has, and I am expecting him to improve next season. He is 29 though, and you can only count on him for another few seasons.
That is a team I’d be happy to be leading to the field Sundays this season. I have productive RBs anchoring my team, along with the best TE in the game, a top 10 quarterback and solidly producing WRs. My bench looks good too, and I already have multiple commodities I expect to appreciate over the course of the season.
I touched on this towards the beginning of the article, but I am hoping to build a team which can get to the playoffs for the next couple of years, while not sacrificing future competitiveness. Part of this strategy is being able to take older and undervalued players, and trust in your own ability to scout young’uns and make moves for players you believe in before everyone else does. Don’t be afraid to follow your instincts if a player jumps off the screen at you. Everyone has at least one player they “knew” would hit it big before everyone else, but so long as you don’t have the cojones to act on your instincts you will always be in line with the mainstream.
That will do it for today folks, I hope you enjoyed it! Be sure to take a look at DFW’s ADP data and let me know where you think I went wrong. I switched up my Twitter handle to @TheFFBoss so be sure to hit me up, it’s still me, promise.