Building a Dynasty: Part 3
By Brian Luzier (@TheFFBoss)
Since January DFW has held 12 mock drafts to help our readers establish an ADP baseline. This info is valuable in a plethora of ways, some of which have been touched on, and some which haven’t yet. Today I will be explaining to you how I would use this data in a startup draft to build a powerhouse dynasty capable of running your league for years. Specifically I’ll be looking at late round players I’m targeting in startups and trades this year. Some can be had as a throw-in on a larger deal, while some may require a future 1st or 2nd to acquire.
This is the last of four articles in which I will break down how I would draft a team using the ADP data DFW has provided. I will spend three articles breaking draft slots down into three tiers, top (picks 1-4), middle (5-8), and bottom (9-12), and this article focusing on deeper sleepers I like in general. In the past few articles I selected players who are picked either within the pick range, or slightly after the specified pick, nearly assuring you of being able to mimic my draft if you chose to. In this article I’m throwing ADP out the window. I think after Round 10 you should be targeting your guys, as there is simply no telling when a player will be picked. Not all drafts are the same, and especially when it comes to later picks, player values can vary dramatically depending on who’s in the room.
Assumptions I’m working with:
- 12 Team PPR
- 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 WRT FLEX, 1 K, 1 DEF
- 25 PYADS/PT, 10 RuYDS/PT, 10 ReYDS/PT
- No return bonuses
- No yardage or big play bonuses
Here are the 7 late round targets I’m hoping to scoop wherever I can, enjoy!
Stephen Hill, WR, Jets (11.08)
You could do worse in the 11th than picking up one of the most gifted athletes in last years class. After posting a 4.36 40, 14 Reps on the bench, a 39.5” vertical, a 133” (11′ 1”) broad jump, a 6.88 second 3 cone, a 4.48 20 yd shuttle and an 11.43 60 yd shuttle, there was much buzz about the Georgia Tech product. His athleticism is unquestionable, on the other hand his receiving prowess is questionable at best. After starting 2012 with 5 catches for 89 yards and 2 scores in Week 1 he posted a measly 21/252/3 on the season. I expect both Hill and the Jets offense to improve this year with the departure of Mark Sanchez and the addition of Chris Ivory (another Jet to go out and get! When’s the last time you could say that?).
Greg Little, WR, Browns (11.09)
While Little’s hands were the brunt of many punchlines early in his career, he turned it on towards the end of the season posting 22/287/2 over the last 5 weeks of 2012. That prorates to 70/918/6.5, good for 200.8 fantasy points, or halfway between Lance Moore and Jeremy Maclin, and just above what Wallace, Austin, Shorts, and Blackmon put up last year. That’s good for the 22nd best WR. That’s a steal in the 11th if you ask me.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins (13.09)
Lost in last years Rookie QB fever was the fact that Tannehill put up respectable numbers (fantasy-wise, if nothing else) converting 282 completions into 3,294 yards, 12 TDs and 13 INTs. While these numbers aren’t eye popping, for a rookie QB thrust into the starting lineup he performed better than expected. With a much improved receiving corps and an upgraded offensive line I suspect we will see a nice improvement in his efficiency and rushing stats in 2013. As an upside QB2 I think Tannehill presents great value for an owner who scooped a more reliable starter early on and can see where his career leads him. I’m also interested in Brandon Weeden (3385/14/17) for his current (non-existent) price tag.
Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys (14.04)
I am not spearheading the Randle bandwagon, but I think he presents decent value given Demarco Murray’s injury plagued career. Any back on the Dallas roster has an opportunity to start multiple times over the course of a season, and we’ve seen what Dunbar and Tanner have to offer- not much. Randle seems like he possesses the most upside of any of the backs on the Cowboys with a floor that can’t be any lower. A good value this late.
Rod Streater, WR, Raiders (15.03)
A preseason darling, Streater has no competition standing between him and a starting WR spot in Oakland now that DHB has left town. After posting only 39/584/3 there may be some doubt about his ability against real competition, but his season was highlighted by a 4 catch-100 yard outing against the Broncos, a 3/96/1 performance against the Browns, and a 5/62 outing against the Chiefs. With an offseason as a starter coming up, I hope he can build a rapport with Flynn (or Wilson) and lead many of my teams to greatness. I’ve been getting him for about a third-round rookie pick which is a price I’m happy to pay. As you know, I don’t value 3rds very highly.
Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints (19.09)
Pierre has always been one of my favorite players, ever since the 2008 season where he lead my team to the promised land. I have been unimpressed by Mark Ingram so far, and don’t view Cadet or Sproles as direct threats to Thomas’ value. He is much older than many would expect at 28, but he consistently performs when called upon, averaging 4.8 yds/carry in his career. I can’t see him being much more than a flex unless an injury occurs to 1 (or 2) players in this backfield, but there will be stretches this year where he’ll be productive. He’s good depth to grab later on in a draft. I think he and Cadet are the backs most helped by the Ivory trade.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Redskins (20.02)
Cousins played very well in limited action, leading a victory drive in Baltimore, and looking calm and composed in his limited playing time elsewhere. Completing 68.8% of his passes last year while averaging 9.71 yards per attempt with a 4:3 TD:INT ratio Cousins looked capable of developing into a reliable player in the league. I wouldn’t be very interested in him, however, if he was playing behind someone less prone to injuries than RG3. People talk of his otherworldly healing, and his commitment to avoid hits next season as well as rush less, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting him week in and week out in a dynasty league since I believe his career will be shorter than Luck’s or Wilson’s. The best bet with Cousins is to hold him for a year and hope he is traded or called upon to replace RG3 during the season. If that happens you should be able to flip him for a 2nd and grin at the return on your investment.
Especially with these later picks, don’t be afraid to follow your instincts if a player jumps off the screen at you. Everyone has at least one player they “knew” would hit it big before everyone else, but so long as you don’t have the cojones to act on your instincts you will always be in line with the mainstream.
That will do it for today folks, I hope you enjoyed it! Be sure to take a look at DFW’s ADP data and let me know where you think I went wrong. I switched up my Twitter handle to @TheFFBoss so be sure to hit me up, it’s still me, promise.
If you lost track of my previous articles in the series check them out here: