Buy Low, Sell High, or Hold Steady: Week 7

By Jay Myers – Founder / CEO

Welcome back to DFW’s own Buy Low, Sell High, Hold Steady article.  Each and every week we cover a number of players who fall into each category based on current values, performance, and player trends.  Player values are of the utmost importance to the fantasy football community.  And striking on a player when his value is low or high makes all of the difference in the world.  These concepts are especially true in dynasty leagues where player values stretch out over a much longer period of time.  So while we’ll focus on some immediate news and production remember that in dynasty we can’t overreact.  One game (or even a few games) a career does not make, but it does definitely give us an idea of what to expect.

We decided to give Jeff the week off, so I thought I would try my hand at one of my favorites dynasty topics. I’ll try to live up to what has become the legend of Jeff, I mean the man does have a dynasty start/sit rating system modeled after his first name so he must be doing something right. I can only hope that my article will be awarded 5 out of 5 Jeff’s, we’ll have to wait to see what Quinn thinks.  On to the good stuff:

 

Buy Low:

Stevan Ridley, RB NE - First he has the fumbling issues, a hot rookie Bolden and then he struggled versus the stout Seattle run defense last week. Not all of his owners are down on him, but I would bet that some of them are currently a little uneasy about his situation with a no-nonsense coach who doesn’t stand for fumbling. I’d use this time to try and buy-low if possible, I love his skill-set in an explosive offense where teams can’t stack the box along with tons of scoring opportunities. I’m sure the fumbling issue is one that he’ll be focusing on in order to correct.

Calvin Johnson, WR Det - The true King of Dynasty is playing well, but not quite to the levels that we saw last season. Stafford has struggled due to the coverages that defenses are throwing at Megatron. He’s seeing constant double and triple teams. Any WR playing versus this coverage would be a complete non-factor, so I’m really impressed with his stats despite teams game planning to take him out of the game. He’s never going to come cheap, but this is as good a time as ever to get him “cheaper”.

Josh Gordon, WR Cle - Some will say he’s a sell after the last two weeks, but in my opinion even if someone thinks they’re selling high then he’s still cheaper now than he will be in the off-season.  This offense should only get better throughout the year and now that he’s starting he should have a strong finish to the season.  He’ll have some ups and downs like any other rookie WR, but he’s going to flash big time giving folks a lot of optimism about his future.  He could be special with his size/speed combo which is comparable to Brandon Marshall, and he can actually catch unlike the other Cleveland WR.

Martellus Bennett, TE NYG - Bennett started the year off hot, but has struggled the past few weeks while dealing with a hyper-extended knee.  Grab him now while his stock is down, he’s going to be healthy soon enough.  When that happens his stat-lines of 5 for 60 and a TD will be back on a regular basis.

David Wilson, RB NYG - Last week Jeff mentioned that Bradshaw was a great sell, well for that exact reason Wilson is a great buy.  I am a Bradshaw believer, however I’m not blind to Wilson’s talent.  This kid is special, and my belief is that by next season this will be a 50/50 timeshare where both backs have RB2 value.  Bradshaw has dominated the last two weeks, and if any of the Wilson owners haven’t watched him closely they may not realize how good he is.  I would at least approach them to see what Wilson’s price tag is.  You never know how cheap a player will be sold for unless you ask.  Grab him now if possible before his role grows throughout the remainder of the season.

Dwayne Bowe, WR KC - His two bad games in a row coupled with a concussed QB means that his stock is currently down or should be down depending on the owner.  Bowe still has a lot of football in his future, so he is a prime target for a team whether it’s a compete now or rebuild.  Some owners get worried about uncertain futures, so play up the fact that he could move on from KC after the season.

Joe Flacco, QB Balt - They’ve lost their best DL, LB and DB to injuries (Suggs, Lewis and Webb), and if you’re a betting man you’d have to think they’ll struggle moving forward which means this team should have to score a lot of points on offense to keep winning games.  Average Joe Flacco has already shown flashes of being elite this season with a wide-open hurry-up offense, and now with these injuries he’ll have the chance to really solidify that he’s a top-12 QB in fantasy football.  His last two games haven’t been too hot, but he should bounce back moving forward.  He’s definitely worth a shot based on his current price tag if you’re having issues at QB.

 

 

Sell High

Wes Welker, WR NE - If you are a top 4 contender you can’t move Welker, but anyone not in that boat really needs to be considering the move.  Unlike the uncertainty with Bowe stated above it’s just not the same for Welker.  My belief is that the system and Brady are what make him so special.  Do you really want to bet on a 32 year old slot receiver going to a new team with a new system and a new QB?  With his recent play they’ll definitely try to keep him, but will he give them a discount to stay?  I don’t think so, and that’s what makes me nervous.  They have so much money wrapped up in Gronk and Hernandez that I just don’t think they’ll be able to give him the money he “deserves”.

Mike Williams, WR TB - Mike busts out with a successful rookie year, then a sophomore slump only due to the drop in TD’s.  Now in year three he has VJax helping with defensive coverages which means he’s getting a lot of one on one matchups.  He’s responded with a solid season so far, should you sell or hold steady though?  You could honestly go either way, but I personally would package him with another player for an upgrade at another position.  He’s going to be inconsistent as the second best WR on a team that really wants to dominate running the ball.  He’s played well so his trade value should be up, but it just depends on the trade partner as to how much.  If you can get the upgrade then he’s definitely a sell, if not then he’ll be a serviceable WR3 moving forward.

Michael Vick, QB Phi - Some will say why sell now while his stock is in the toilet?  I say that you better get something now before it’s too late after the season is over.  Odds are that this team won’t make the playoffs in what is a stacked NFC conference which means that more than likely he and Andy Reid won’t be back next season.  Getting twenty five cents on the dollar is better than getting zero cents on the dollar after the season is over which is what could potentially happen.  If you’re stacked everywhere else and he’s really your only option at QB you should probably stay put and ride it out as I’m of the belief that they won’t make the switch to Foles unless they lose every game for the next 6 weeks or so.  Just because he’s not a good NFL QB right now doesn’t mean he can’t put up good fantasy football numbers for you for the rest of the season if needed.

James Jones, WR GB - Jeff mentioned him as a sell high last week as well, but it’s definitely time after three straight games with 2 TD’s.  Sell the other owner on the fact that Jennings could be gone next season which means that what we’ve been seeing with Jennings injured could be the exact role for Jones next season with Cobb in the slot.  To be honest though, that could happen which could make Jones very valuable.  But, I’m betting they keep Jennings around which kills Jones long-term value once again.  Jones has been the ultimate tease, and I would bet on that continuing.

Obvious Sell High – Shonn Greene, enough said.

Handcuff Sells: If you don’t need to start Felix Jones I’d be looking to sell to a Murray owner during these tough bye weeks.  Blount rushed seven times for 58 yards and a touchdown, I’d be looking to move him to the Martin owner for insurance.  Try for a 2nd round pick.

 

 

Hold Steady:

Torrey Smith, WR Bal - He’s off to a great start, but he’s been a little inconsistent.  Just remember he’s only a 2nd year WR who came into the NFL as a raw talent with a lot to learn as far as the route tree is concerned.  This kid is talented and has the same ceiling as Mike Wallace who has a similar skill-set.

Dez Bryant, WR Dal - If you own him I would definitely fight the urge to sell after his last two studly games which some will see as a great sell-high opportunity. Now, if you really hate the guy and think he’s destined for failure then do what you feel you need to do. I’ve been a big supporter all off-season while others keep pointing at his work ethic and off-the-field issues. All players come with some sort of risk or another, but I’m truly excited with his recent play. Is he still making some mistakes? Yes, but he’s getting better and better performance-wise and we are starting to see his potential flourish right before our very eyes. I’d gamble on his monster talent while accepting the occasional drop or bad route. As long as Romo keeps chucking him the rock he’ll be fine.

Jordy Nelson, WR GB - This one should be obvious, but some folks think that 3 touchdown games are an opportunity to sell high.  Jordy has proven that he’s not a fluke after last season, he plays with the best QB in one of the top passing offenses in the league.  Plus, there are no guarantees that Jennings will be back next year which could make him option 1A in this pass attack.

Jeremy Maclin, WR Phi - Finally had his coming out party for the season with 130 yards and a touchdown on six receptions.  He had a rough year and a rough start to this season.  If you don’t believe in his talent then he is a sell, but I think he has a lot more of these games in his future assuming he can stay healthy.