By: Luke Grilli (@LGrilli88)
Some dynasty fantasy football leagues are in a lull right now. The time between the Super Bowl and The NFL Draft can be No-Man’s Land when it comes to our beloved game. However, some owners need to act now. Depending on your league, deadlines to make decisions on players could come as early as late February. Of course, between late February and the end of training camp, a lot can happen in terms of player movement. Buy, Sell or Hold will focus on a player whose future may be in question and give you some guidance in the asking price in each situation.
A prime example of a player with the “where the hell will he be next year” tag is Percy Harvin. The supremely talented, yet very temperamental, player has made it know that he has issues being in Minnesota. Not getting paid enough? Not involved in the offense enough? Jealous of Christian Ponder’s smoking hot wife? Who knows.
Much has been made of Percy Harvin’s issues with coaching in the past. On top of that, a report has come out that Harvin was sent to the IR in 2012 mainly to rid the headaches he was causing in an otherwise positive locker room. GM Rick Spielman has made it clear that he would like to keep the talented 5th year wide out, but knows that sometimes the player isn’t worth the trouble.
The weapons in Minnesota are few and far between on offense. Adrian Peterson is obviously not human and Kyle Rudolph is coming off a promising 2012 season. Other than those two, Harvin is probably the only other player worthy of your fantasy roster. Minnesota knows how important the swiss-army knife WR is; as Spielman has reiterated that he will not be made available this off season. This could be posturing on the part of the Vikings to get the best deal possible, but I don’t see that being the case.
There is a huge risk here if you invest in Percy Harvin as your WR1 for 2013 and beyond. If Percy stays put in Minnesota and unhappy about it, he could pull a “Vincent Jackson” and sit out until he is forced to report. If that is the case, you could be missing an important player on your squad.
So, when it comes to fantasy, what can you expect to get or be asked to give up for Percy Harvin? In most leagues, the trade ban has been lifted and you are free to make moves as you see fit. In a perfect world, you have to believe that Percy Harvin is the perfect WR1 for your team over the next 3-5 years. He is electric, makes people miss and was the WR5 before going down with the ankle injury in Week 9. He was on a tear with a 16 game pace of 120 catches and 1,334 yards, easily besting any of his previous NFL seasons by a long shot. Obviously this isn’t a perfect world and you may play around with the idea to avert a potential disaster by jettisoning Percy Harvin for whatever you can get.
Below are some realistic deals based on what I feel is fair value for Percy Harvin. Each header (Buy/Sell) represents what market YOU are part of. Side Note: To give you an idea to how I stand, in these trade scenarios I am valuing Percy Harvin as the PPR overall WR5 behind Dez and ahead of Demaryius Thomas.
Buy: You give up Stevie Johnson and Mikel LeShoure for Percy Harvin
If you have nice RB depth, you can afford to make this deal. Essentially, you’re giving up a WR2 and RB2 for a WR1. This is your classic 2-for-1 deal. If you cannot afford to give up Mikel LeShoure, insist on the other owner taking back a first round pick in your rookie draft or another WR2 that will put up 10-12 ppg in a PPR league.
Sell: You give up Percy Harvin and a 2nd round pick in your rookie draft for Stevan Ridley and Eric Decker
Is this deal fair for both sides…mehhhh probably not, but this is what I would want if I moved Percy Harvin. Decker finally came on in 2012 with Peyton Manning at the helm and Stevan Ridley looks like the best back in New England.
In conclusion: Hold
I’m only moving Percy Harvin if I’m in full rebuild mode or am offered deal I can’t refuse. We saw glimpses of greatness in 2012, but the injuries slowed Percy down. I think that a rejuvenated and healthy Percy Harvin ends 2013 as a Top 5 WR in PPR leagues. I expect, and am insisting, that you tell me your trade scenarios in the comments below or on Twitter . Call me an idiot (you definitely would have called me an idiot if I kept in the original Sell offer as Percy for Spiller and Colston…oops) or call me a genius, our opinions are what keeps us coming back for more!