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Dynasty Experts Q and A: 2016 Week 6


Each and every week we will ask our dynasty experts several questions regarding fantasy football. Our expert panel will answer anything you throw at them. We’ll look at buy-low and sell-high players along with trade questions we receive during the week from our followers as well as other general dilemmas and draft questions. Here we go:
1.) Who benefits the most from Colin Kaepernick starting for San Francisco?
Burgandy – Colin Kaepernick owners. #rimshot

Brian Hawkes – Carlos Hyde. This move cements his status as the focal point of the 49ers offense. I’m not sure there is much of a difference between the play of Gabbert or Kaepernick…but if we assume Kap is a modest upgrade, it should open things up for Hyde.

Josh Johnson – I know Carlos Hyde is the easy choice. However, we have seen that mobile QBs open up the field by requiring an LB to spy or mirror them. Remember RGIII’s rookie campaign when Alfred Morris exploded for 1,600 yards and 13 TDs. If you don’t like that analogy, please track Morris’s game logs when was RGIII hurt or ineffective. What should also be noted is that when Kaep broke through he favored the sure-handed Michael Crabtree. That means his top target getter this week could be a player worth riding.

Mike Krafick – Can I pick the Bills DST and every defense they face moving forward?  I am not optimistic that Kaepernick will have success in Chip Kelly’s offense, he was a great fantasy QB when the Read Option was working in 2012 and 2013 but those days are long gone.  His scatter-shot arm will lead to lots of interception opportunities for the opposing team.  My initial thought when I heard this news was that Torrey Smith will benefit because of Kaep’s strong arm but the more I think about it the less confident I feel in that take.  

Bill Latin – The opposing defense! #Rimshot 2.0

2.) With OC Marc Trestman getting the Ax, who benefits with Marty Mornhinweg “running” the show?
Burgandy – You have to expect and improvement.  And it’s not because Mornhinweg is some running game wizard. It’s because it couldn’t be any worse.  Expect all the RBs to improve in some degree. Baltimore however is still a mess at that position fantasy-wise. It’s still a wait and see situation. 

Brian Hawkes – On the surface, this change appears to offer potential to commit to the running game. As Mornhinweg, most recently the OC for the Jets in 2013-2014, was behind one of the most productive rushing attacks in the NFL. However, if we look deeper at his coaching history – we see mixed results that show a tendency to cater his play calling to his personnel. In fact, in his 16 seasons as a Head Coach or Offensive Coordinator, Mornhinweg’s teams have leaned towards the run in only four of those seasons. The majority of his playcalling tendencies (San Francisco, Detroit, Philadelphia) lean towards the pass. So, my expectation is that he will maximize his personnel..and with the Ravens’ personnel, your guess is as good as mine as to what that will lead to – my bet is not much of a change from what we’ve seen thus far in 2016.

Josh Johnson – It appears the plan is to run more and when that is effective run even more. Sorry Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Kamar Aiken and Breshad Perriman and their owners. So I guess Kenneth Dixon and probably more so Terrance West will yardage logging beasts. Oh wait, maybe the Ravens opponents will think the same thing. Mornhinweg’s offense has never been stellar or creatively adjustable besides the year he had Steve Young, Garrison Hearst, Terrell Owens and some Division II WR named Jerry Rice.

Mike Krafick – The Ravens offense is a stay away for me, regardless of who is calling the plays.  I do not expect this coaching change to have that much of an impact on the on-field performance of the players.  Like Brian said, Mornhinweg has been a pass first play-caller historically so I do not think the move from Trestman will have that much of an impact.  The Ravens just have so many guys they will use at each position that it makes any of them difficult to trust for fantasy.

Bill Latin – Terrance West now goes from serviceable to high end RB2.  This is going to get even uglier.

3.) Cameron Meredith and Adam Thielen were hot waiver claims this week but who would you prefer long term?
Burgandy – I would pick Thielen. He’s that guy who just produces. Never drops a pass. Always gets the first down.  From walk on to starter. This story makes me smile. Even if Diggs and Treadwell develop to their fullest potential, I could see Theilen manning the slot or outside with Diggs hopping in the slot from time to time. Bradford loves him.  He’s here to stay in MN. He’s also a hometown MN boy and the fans love him. Don’t expect him to be a regular starter, but he will be the Jeremy Kerley-type who ends up on a roster and in a starting lineup more weeks than not. 

Brian Hawkes – Neither is fantasy relevant long-term. Both are depth plays behind players (Kevin White and Laquon Treadwell) who will be given every opportunity to succeed due to the investment each team made in the player. These guys make for a good story, but the likelihood they become regular fantasy contributors is not very high.

Josh Johnson – I like Meredith here as Alshon Jeffery could walk at season’s end. Thielen is a tremendous story but with Diggs, Treadwell and even Patterson will be future target eaters. Meredith was silky smooth versus a bad Colts secondary and I am not ready to start him against the Vikings or anything crazy like that. But, he seized an opportunity in major way. Kevin White owners might offer up real talent or picks to fill their void.

Mike Krafick – Cameron Meredith and it’s not close for me!  Meredith is 6’3″ 200 lbs and he has enough speed to play the X receiver role after Jeffery moves on in free agency this off-season.  I’m not sold that Meredith will be a fantasy star or anything but between the two players listed I’ll take Meredith over Thielen every time.  Meredith may end up as the #1 WR in Chicago next year, I’m not sold on Kevin White just taking that role until he shows something on the field (which he has not done yet).

Bill Latin – Cameron Meredith has a nice combo of college pedigree and metrics.  The situation in Chicago with the QB and Alshon being in a contract year is not ideal.  I believe Meredith gets a low WR2 high WR3 valuation at this point.  

4.) Do the Falcons have the best RB tandem in Football?
Burgandy – I can’t think of another one that is even close to the combined talent of Freeman/Coleman. Just when you think Freeman is a thing of the past, he torches a team up the middle. Just when you think Coleman has assumed a bench role, he catches a 40 yard TD pass like the WR down the seam.  It’s pretty fun to watch honestly. Freeman is the better RB IMO. Especially between the tackles. Might be the best runner between the tackles in the NFL right now. ATL will always use him to set up Coleman to the outside and his mismatched receiving targets.  Both RBs are startable every week. 

Brian Hawkes – Yes. Although I would not expect Tevin Coleman’s production to continue considering the staggering efficiency he is experiencing with limited touches. For example, Coleman is averaging only two more rushing attempts per game in 2016 (9) than he did in 2015 (7), and his yards per carry are actually down (4.5 in ’15 to 3.5 in ’16). Where Coleman is making a difference is in the passing game, and it’s absolutely the type of production that is not sustainable. He’s averaging just over 4 targets per game in 2016, which isn’t overly impressive…but what is absolutely ridiculous, is his average yards per reception at 18.4 yards per catch! For comparison sake, Coleman averaged 7 yards per catch in 2015 and Le’Veon Bell, widely considered one of the best receiving backs in the league, has a 9 yards per catch average for his career (single season high of 10.3 yards per catch in 2014). Simply put, Coleman will regress from his current production and that will bring this duo down to earth…but yes, they might be the best tandem in the NFL.

Josh Johnson – If you would have ask me this question last week I would have said a somber maybe. After watching them saunter through the Bronco D in the thin air of mile high I will now respond with a confident yes. Denver had no idea what Tevin Coleman was doing as a route runner. Devonta Freeman after a slow start is currently cooking both as a runner and receiver. So basically yes at this very moment in time the Falcons do indeed have the best RB tandem in all of football.

Mike Krafick –  There are two teams that are up for consideration when it comes to this question, The Steelers and The Falcons.  I still give the edge to Pittsburgh because they have the best Running Back in the NFL Le’Veon Bell as well as a backup DeAngelo Williams that can fill in with nearly as much production when needed.  Atlanta uses both RB’s so evenly that it makes both of them start-able every week and that is not the case with Pittsburgh.  Think about it this way, if you owned Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman and I offered you Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams straight up in trade, how fast are you hitting accept?

Bill Latin – Why does everyone hate on Jeremy Hill?  All he does is score TD’s!  Gio Bernard is no slouch either.  I still like that duo as one of the more elite in the league.  That being said, Coleman presents the most upside in my opinion of any single RB.

5.) Who is one player you would or have considered trading low on recently?
Burgandy – The word is out on Maclin.  As a defensive target now, he has underperformed dramatically. He needs to be held, but I couldn’t resist in one league and put a package of him, Decker, and a late first together to lock down Odell Beckham Jr. As a contender, a deal, I couldn’t be happier with at this stage (even with OBJ’s underwhelming performance).  

Brian Hawkes – Blake Bortles. Bortles touchdown regression is in full effect, and there isn’t relief in sight. His playoff schedule for 2016 is terrible, as he’d have to carry you through the Vikings to advance to the next round. I am not a believer in Bortles to produce at his 2015 levels for the remainder of 2016. I think you can still get decent return for him, albeit a sell low based on his value last year or in the offseason.

Josh Johnson – Laquon Treadwell has not sniffed the field but I am not worried. Others must not be worried either as I can’t pry him away from anyone. I own one share myself so I understand you don’t want to panic on a player you drafted in the top four overall. He could be like Stefon Diggs who was inactive the first three games of 2015. Then he caught 6 passes for 87 yards versus the eventual Super Bowl champions in their house. Reports are that he not grasping the offense but once he does his god given ability should make him an exciting asset to own.

Bill Latin – Todd Gurley… Gasp!  Jeff Fisher is captain mediocrity and will continue to roll out one of the worst passing offenses in a pass happy NFL.  His value is still very insulated.  I flipped my only share a week ago for Lamar Miller, 2017 mid first, and a 2017 third.

Do you have any burning questions you want us to answer for next week’s Q&A?  If so send them to [email protected] and if your question is used in the weekly article you’ll receive a $5 discount towards a Gold or Silver DFW Insider membership.