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Dynasty Experts Q and A: 2016 Week 9

Each and every week we will ask our dynasty experts several questions regarding fantasy football. Our expert panel will answer anything you throw at them. We’ll look at buy-low and sell-high players along with trade questions we receive during the week from our followers as well as other general dilemmas and draft questions. Here we go:
1.) Roll the clock ahead three years who do you want to own on your dynasty squad, Carson Wentz or Dak Prescott?
Burgandy – Its more or less a coin flip right now, but ultimately I would go Wentz on this one. I know I know..Dak Attack looks a little better statistically, but those things tend to get blown out of proportion when your team is 6-1.  Both of these kids have already proven they are winners and can handle the game at an NFL level.  I just believe that Dak has been gifted not only a very talented offense, but the best offensive line in the game. Things change very rapidly in the NFL…just ask Sammy B and the Vikings.  At this point, things can only go down for Dak in terms of O-line and skill players, meaning his game has to improve enough to compensate for a less talent… whereas Wentz is dealing with an extremely young offense with skill players in particular that can only improve. 

Brian Hawkes – I’m not overly high on either of these rookies as long-term, elite level, fantasy producers…but if I had to choose, I’m going Dak. Depending on your league scoring, Dak is far and away the better fantasy producer at this point (QB10 v. Wentz, QB28). That being said, Dak has yet to throw for 300 yards. He’s getting production from touchdowns, primarily rushing (4). I like the talent around Prescott, and for this reason I trust him more as a dynasty asset. Wentz isn’t surrounded by elite offensive talent, and despite the media love and PFF ratings for his actual football acumen – he isn’t a fantasy producer. In fact, he’s downright mediocre as a fantasy producer with four of his six starts producing 202 passing yards or less.

Luke Grilli – I’m gonna say Wentz here. The big pocket QB seems to have a longer shelf life of consistent success, whereas the QB who relies on their athleticism instead of touch passes and poise in the pocket tends to flame out quicker. Remember when Colin Kaepernick was the next great NFL QB? Now, I’m not saying that Dak is the next Kaepernick, BUT if you put Wentz and Dak side by side, I’m taking Wentz every time.

Josh Johnson – Who would have thought that he even two months ago that this would be a conversion.  Both have such great poise for rookies and they are miles ahead where we would have positively imagined. I really want to pick Prescott. His o-line is more solid and his RB1 is already on a ridiculous level. His WR1 is brittle but so far that has not mattered. What intrigues me about Wentz is his young fleet of WRs (Jordan Matthews/Nelson Agholor/Dorial Green-Beckham). Now I might be the minority thinking that this situation is okay. Trade rumors swirled, putting either Alshon Jeffery or Torrey Smith in Eagle green earlier this week. Nothing happened and I for one am not surprised. Ultimately they will grow together as a unit and that will frustrated all in their wake.  Both maybe better real QBs than Fantasy studs. Ultimately, I think Wentz has the longer and more reliable career. Prescott struggles have been masked by wins. He is not immortal.

Bill Latin – Give me Wentz.  I am a big fan of draft pedigree.  This is especially true for QBs!  The odds of Dak being viable long term are against him despite his good showing early.  

2.) Who is one player you were down on this summer that is currently performing better than you expected?
Burgandy – I’m stealing Josh’s answer below.  He nailed it…I am always dismissing players that change positions from college to the NFL. Pryor is going to make a hell of a WR2 when Coleman gets back. 

Brian Hawkes – Christine Michael. After years of hype, I simply couldn’t push myself to accept that his success this preseason was different from previous years. I did not expect Michael to contribute, let alone become a starting RB and reliable fantasy producer for the majority of 2016. 

Luke Grilli – Nobody. I was spot on in all my drafts and am 8-0 in every league I’m in. Ok that was just a bad attempt at humor to deflect how wrong I was about Melvin Gordon. After a lackluster rookie season, I was quick to write off Gordon, but he has been one of fantasy’s best backs this year and I see no reason why he won’t continue to be a RB1 as Philip Rivers and the Chargers continue to feed their bell cow back the football. 

Josh Johnson – Okay I will point out the obvious one Terrelle Pryor! On one hand we knew the tools were there, on the other it’s Cleveland. In most formats (including full IDP) Pryor is a top 40 scorer. That has maybe caused some sell high scenarios but he is still a legitimate threat. This summer I simply thought that he was a nice story. Also the Browns drafted seven other pass catchers to add to the target mix with Andrew Hawkins, Gary Barnidge and Josh Gordon. I just didn’t see consistent targets for Pryor for any sustained amount of time.

Bill Latin – Latavis Murray is the guy that I thought was doomed this season.  I was certain the Washington was going to take over.  Murray has been “ok” and has been able to keep his job.  He has a super RB friendly schedule the rest of the way as well.  It’s guys like Murray that allow people to go zero RB and be successful.  I like his price relative to how he is performing.  

3.) Name one player that will outperform their first half production?
Burgandy – DeAndre Hopkins is sitting at the WR25 position.  It just makes you want to puke. They will get more dialed in and have a much easier schedule moving forward.

Brian Hawkes – DeAndre Hopkins – I’m with Burgundy on this one. Hopkins has been a huge disappointment through the first half, but his schedule is extremely soft coming out of his week 9 bye all the way through week 17. Too many targets, and too much talent for him not to produce.

Luke Grilli – Todd Gurley has to turn it around. I understand his line and QB both suck, but guess what…they sucked last year too and Gurley was a beast in the 2nd half of the season. I’m hoping that the Rams will use their bye week to get creative with Gurley’s usage because the constant half back dives for 3 yards strategy is really getting old.

Josh Johnson – His name is Khalil Mack. The Mack truck is currently sitting at just five sacks on the season. After 15 sacks a year ago many thought Mack was going to be 20 sack monster in 2016. He is slowing heating up and a sack per game should be coming after he gets three sacks vs Denver on the Sunday night.

Bill Latin – Alshon Jeffrey is currently the WR31.  He has had some horrible matchups and was dinged up a bit as well.  I really like his schedule down the playoff stretch.  In addition, he has his boy Cutler back as well.  He should come back to performing as an elite WR1.

4.) Name one player that cannot match their first half production?
Burgandy –  Crabtree believe it or not is the #5 overall WR in Fantasty… WTF is all I have to say.  I’m not saying the guy can’t keep producing at a fairly high level…I am saying he is definitely second fiddle to Cooper and he is not a top 5 WR the rest of the year… top 10 will be a stretch… but Carr is playing great, as is that entire offense.  Crabtree should be able to remain in the top 12 by the end of the year, but that means he is fading back from the #5 spot.  

Brian Hawkes – Marvin Jones. Jones started 2016 on fire with 85 yards, 115 yards, and a huge week three with 205 yards and two touchdowns. His production since then include two high yardage totals of 94 yards and 74 yards (no touchdowns), and also some poor yardage performances salvaged by touchdowns with 37 yards and 10 yards. In his last game – he delivered a yardage total of 33 yards, and was not saved by a touchdown. It was a nice run, but with a healthy Riddick and Ebron – Jones will not produce at the level we have seen through the first half. 

Luke Grilli – Last year I drafted LeSean McCoy and he popped a hammy in preseason and was never the same. After a blazing hot start, LeSean popped a hammy again and I wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t repeat his 1st half performance. A midseason hamstring injury can be extremely challenging to come all the way back from, so if you had him as your RB1 in the first few weeks of the season, I have bad news for you…

Josh Johnson – Nobody saw DeMarco Murray being a top 10 fantasy player this season. And now a pesky toe injury threatens his availability for this week. While it may seem weak to say an injured player will not keep up there pace, we have seen this song and dance from Murray before. Even if misses just one game it is apparent his early season over-usage has dwindle his promising start. Derrick Henry owners start your engines.

Bill Latin – Christine Michael is currently the RB13 and has been a low end RB1.  Rawls should be back within a couple weeks.  Prosise snap counts have increased and he looks good.  Lastly, Russell Wilson has been playing poorly and should improve the passing game moving forward.  I believe Michael will have his snaps cut in half or worse.  I didn’t even mention that my favorite RB on their squad is Alex Collins and has not logged very many snaps.  I’m a big fan of his college pedigree and think he can be successful.

5.) Which college prospect are currently the highest on?
Burgandy – Haven’t had the time to really dig into the college ranks so far early this year.  All I know is that between, Fournette, Chubb, Cook, McCaffery, and Freeman, the RB class is shaping up very nicely in 2017.

Brian Hawkes – Corey Davis. I put a ton of weight in breakout age and market share stats for college prospects. Davis has been a stud since he set foot on the small-school campus of Western Michigan. Do yourself a favor and watch some of his tape, then take a look at his stats. I don’t need to say much beyond that. He’s a stud.

Luke Grilli – I’ll let my fellow experts answer this one because I have watched about 5 minutes worth of college football. My wife gives me Sundays but she isn’t ready to give me Saturdays too.

Josh Johnson – I am going to say something and I don’t about the backlash it will bring. Jabrill Peppers is the next Charles Woodson. Outside of playing along the interior line Peppers can successfully play any other position on both sides of ball. I don’t believe he will be scheme dependent at the next level. He should wind up as either a safety or a hybrid-LB but he will still be trust to cover guys in the slot and in single-high situation. He has elite acceleration skills and he should clock a sub 4.4 40-time. If you missed out on Landon Collins or Karl Joseph or Keanu Neal then Peppers presents your next chance to nab an elite safety before his price skyrockets.

Bill Latin – I’m going to cheat and give two.  I love Deshaun Watson QB Clemson.  He is super efficient with over 66% completion percentage, 71-25 TD/INT ratio,  and is a very good threat in the rushing game.  I also have been high on Equanimous St. Brown, sophomore WR Notre Dame for some time now.   This season he has had 37 receptions for 683 yards (18.5 YPC) and 7 TDs. He at 6’4″ 205 pounds, he has the frame to put on a few pounds of muscle and be a very good NFL caliber WR.

Do you have any burning questions you want us to answer for next week’s Q&A?  If so send them to [email protected] and if your question is used in the weekly article you’ll receive a $5 discount towards a Gold or Silver DFW Insider membership.