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Dynasty Experts Q and A: 2015 Offseason #13 – NFL Post-Draft Edition


Each and every week we will ask our dynasty experts several questions regarding fantasy football. Our expert panel will answer anything you throw at them. We’ll look at buy-low and sell-high players along with trade questions we receive during the week from our followers as well as other general dilemmas. Here we go:

 
1. What was the most surprising pick of round one and why?
 
Burgandy – Todd Gurley going to St. Louis has got to be at the top of the list.  From a “Jeff Fisher” perspective this is not as shocking as it is from a fantasy perspective. Jeff Fisher not only hates all things fantasy football, but he clearly is desperate for a bell cow back. Whether it be Eddie George, Chris Johnson, or now Todd Gurley, it is clear Fisher wants to focus the offense around the running back. Pretty good plan, but Tre Mason owners just got kicked in the groin. Hard and without warning.
 
Bill Cervi – I am sure that Todd Gurley will be the consensus pick and rightfully so, but I will go a different direction and say that Marcus Mariota “NOT” going to the Eagles was the biggest surprise in round 1 for me. I thought Chip Kelly had done a great job of assembling the pieces that he would need to move up. Sam Bradford, Mychal Kendricks, Fletcher Cox, Brandon Boykin, pick 1.20 and a 2016 first round pick were all in play and I thought surely the Titans would bite with that kind of talent to choose from.
 
Josh Johnson – Fantasy wise it has to be Phillip Dorsett, with Todd Gurley to the Rams a close second. I do not get why a team like the Colts who already have four talented WRs would tab a WR with their first pick. This class has depth at all positions but the WR class is beaming! Maybe they are thinking that T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson are the now. While Dorsett and Donte Moncrief are the future for their golden boy QB. Edge guys like Eli Harold or Randy Gregory would have made better sense. Also RB Jay Ajayi or safety Landon Collins have far superior upsides compared to the tiny Dorsett.
 
Mike Krafick – For me the most surprising pick of the first round was Phillip Dorsett, WR to the Indianapolis Colts at 29th Overall.  Dorsett is more of a day 2 pick in my opinion but that isn’t the surprising part, it’s the team that drafted him that shocked me.  The Colts are already loaded at WR with Hilton, Andre Johnson, Donte Moncrief, and Duron Carter.  Dorsett is basically the same receiver as TY Hilton, this pick tells me that Hilton will probably not be a Colt after this year. He is set to be an Unrestricted Free Agent in 2016.
 
Brian Hawkes – Phillip Dorsett to the Colts. Dorsett was expected to go in the range that he did, so it’s likely a case of Indianapolis taking the best player available, but it does create a log jam at wide receiver for the Colts. Having Dorsett paired with Luck is ideal… But who’s the odd man out: Hilton, Johnson (age), Moncrief, Dorsett, Carter? Due to the fact that they drafted Dorsett in the first round, I have to believe he is a key piece to their plan going forward… But I would have liked that he go to a team with fewer options to compete with on the depth chart.
 
Gianni Maffeo – Gurley to the Rams and Dorsett to the Colts definitely warrant consideration here, but I’m going with Shaq Thompson to Carolina. It’s a surprise for two reasons. First, Shaq Thompson was a consensus day-two pick because he doesn’t seem to have a true position. In college, Thompson played linebacker, safety, and even running back. Second, the Panthers already have two great linebackers in Luke Kuechley and Thomas Davis, so I think the team could have addressed its other needs at offensive line, wide receiver, and defensive back. Although he’s athletic and extremely versatile, the Thompson pick definitely caught me by surprise.
 
Sean Kirby [IDP] – Shaq Thompson, LB/S, Washington was a surprising selection by Carolina for me.  I was initially excited, but the pick isn’t sitting well with me over time.  I’ve been pretty adamant that Shaq Thompson is a LB.  Now I’m not so sure.  A Mid-first round selection isn’t typical for an undersized off-ball LB, so I wonder about potential intentions to play him at SS.  The selection was announced by Thomas Davis, who has been a pretty steady LB2 as a 4-3 OLB when healthy.  Thompson actually profiles to fill Davis’ role, which could open up after the aging and oft-injured Davis moves on.  This seems highly possible within a year or so.  Before then, Thompsons IDP’s debut may be delayed or he may be trialed at DB, where he’d make a nasty in-the-box dime player.  Tom Bradbury’s breakdown can be seen here.
 
2. What was the most surprising pick of round two and why?
 
Burgandy – I will go Yeldon because I admittedly don’t know enough about some of the IDP players taken.  Yeldon isn’t a surprise to many, but he’s a surprise to me. I have serious reservations about his running style and his ability to be successful in the NFL. I felt there were better “bigger” backs in the draft that JAX could have targeted here. AZ scored HUGE with David Johnson. Yeldon will need to “get smaller” carrying the ball or he’s going to be a fumble machine that gets crushed. Too wide open for my liking.
 
Bill Cervi – The most surprising pick in round 2 for me was the Cowboy’s selection of DE Randy Gregory. Once considered a top 5 talent his stock has been steadily falling since failing his drug test at the combine. What really disturbed me was all the the recent news pertaining to him missing interviews with teams. One appointment he was 90 minutes late and one he blew off completely. Seriously? Someone wants to interview you for a multi-million dollar job ad you do not show up? To me those are GIANT red hurricane flags waving and if I were a GM, I would not select him regardless of the perceived value. The Cowboys have an excellent infrastructure to deal with troubled players and I hope it works for everyone, but there is no way I would have wasted a second rounder on him.
 
Josh Johnson – Mario Edwards DE from Florida State going to Oakland. With Owamagbe Odighizuwa on the board I just smacked my coffee table after I heard the pick. I like Edwards and I would have loved him in round four. Since Odighizuwa fell through the second it is clear many teams were also down on him for some reason. Nate Orchard and Markus Golden who both also went in second were higher on my board. Oakland needs an aggressor on the edge to help their LB corps out. Edwards can play along the line but he does not make the kind of impact plays you want out of a high second round pick. #upsideunknown.
 
Mike Krafick – The biggest surprise of the second round was the pick that wasn’t made……Jalen Strong was my 4th ranked WR in this year’s draft class but was the 11th receiver drafted.  I think the Houston Texans got a steal with this pick at 70th overall.  Strong will line up opposite DeAndre Hopkins for years to come and that will help him with the coverage he will see.
 
Brian Hawkes – Funchess to Carolina. Carolina basically gets a Kelvin Benjamin clone! Carolina has two huge WRs to go along with Greg Olsen. I would have thought a smaller, more refined receiver would have been a better pairing to go with Benjamin, but this still adds intrigue. To me, this pick comes as a direct result of the success Benjamin had last year. Carolina is going back to the well again, hoping a big bodied target can create matchup problems for opponents. Red zone targets should be interesting in 2015.
 
Gianni Maffeo – It’s not a flashy surprise pick, but I’ll say Jake Fisher to the Bengals. I actually think Fisher was a great value pick for Cincinnati, but the team already drafted an offensive lineman in Cedric Ogbuehi in round 1. On top of that, the offensive line did not seem to have many issues last year. The Bengals allowed the 3rd fewest sacks in the league last season and seemed to have no problem opening up running lanes for Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard. Youth and depth is important, but I was very surprised to see the Bengals use their first two picks on offensive lineman.  
 
Sean Kirby [IDP] – I was very surprised to see Eric Kendricks land behind numerous off-ball LBs, but Randy Gregory takes the cake.  Like Ajayi, we learned that NFL concerns about the player are very very real.  He also lands on a newly upgraded, albeit troubled, depth chart with Greg Hardy and Demarcus Lawrence.
 
3. Which first round player’s FF value was enhanced the most by his landing spot?
 
Burgandy – This is much harder.  I love the Cooper/Carr combo.  I love Kevin White sliding into Brandon Marshall’s starting role opposite Alshon.  I love Todd Gurley everywhere.  Gordon got a huge bump for me. He was my clear #2 RB but I am just not quite as high on him as others.  Landing in San Diego is a definite plus. But the clear winner in this category is Nelson Agholor. I am not a huge fan of him or USC WRs in general, but you just can’t deny the Chip Kelly offense and Nelson has clear experience and upside in this offense.  I still won’t end up with him, but I am forced look at him differently now.
 
Bill Cervi – Nelson Agholor. I had Agholor in my final pre-draft top 10 WRs, but his selection by Philadelphia may place him at number 1 on my post draft board.  I know that sounds crazy, however post draft rankings are based on opportunity combined with talent and unless both are present the production will not be at its full potential (Sammy Watkins). Only four WRs played more snaps than Maclin (1,043 snaps) last year and I do not see any reason why Agholor, who is a Maclin clone, should not be able to pick up at least 90% of those unless he is injured. I will need more time to analyze the numbers and see the final post draft WR depth chart for the Eagles, but I am thinking Agholor is at least a WR2 this year in PPR leagues and his ceiling may be even higher.
 
Josh Johnson – Nelson Agholor to the Eagles means big things for dynasty owners. The athleticism and the effort he puts forward are commendable. Pairing him Jordan Matthews will only help to solidify his value. The creativity of Chip Kelly will place Agholor on an amazing plain to succeed. The only WR I have seen work his tail off as hard as Agholor in recent years is Matthews. Prior to the draft I had Agholor just outside my Top 10 rookie WRs. Now I consider him a top 10 rookie overall.
 
Mike Krafick – Nelson Agholor to Philadelphia at 20th overall is the best landing spot for him.  He landed in a spot where he will start right away in a fast paced/high octane offense.  Agholor can line up inside or outside and will pair well with Jordan Matthews.  He will see plenty of targets and can be a PPR stud in this Philly offense.  I think Chip Kelly can get the most out of Sam Bradford and I’m excited about this duo of receivers the Eagles have.  For what it’s worth, I think this pick helps Jordan Matthews’s fantasy value as well.  Agholor has been compared to Jeremy Maclin and I think these two receivers will complement each other in Chip Kelly’s offense.
 
Brian Hawkes – Breshad Perriman. Going into the draft, I was intrigued by the Baltimore Ravens as a potential landing spot for a fantasy stud. They are in desperate need of skill position players, and have a WR1 on his last leg (Steve Smith). Perriman has a clear path to being a WR1 and he is paired with a stable QB. He has scary upside too, which makes him even more appealing. I see no better fantasy situation for a rookie, than for Breshad Perriman.
 
Gianni Maffeo – I’ve been going back and forth between Melvin Gordon and Nelson Agholor, but I’m picking Agholor. Since Chip Kelly has taken over in Philadelphia, the team has lost their top play-making wide receivers, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Jordan Matthews came on strong late last year, but the team desperately needs another pass-catching weapon. Not only will Agholor have an opportunity to produce, but he will also be playing in Chip Kelly’s quick-passing up-tempo offense. Arguably the fastest riser in the weeks leading up to the draft, Agholor is a sound route-runner, with good speed, and great hands. For a rookie wide receiver, it’s tough to find a better situation than Philly.
 
Sean Kirby [IDP] – Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson might threaten to become the top IDP in rookie drafts.  It sounds a touch absurd, but his ascent had begun slightly before the combine, where he was catapulted up draft boards.  He’s a very well-rounded guy, who definitely has the physical tools to be a 3-down player.  New Orleans will certainly give him that opportunity, given their black hole at ILB, where David Hawthorne shouldn’t provide more than a short-lived camp battle.  The ILB spot previously allowed Lofton to be a perennial tackle leader.
 
4. Which second round player’s FF value was enhanced the most by his landing spot?
 
Burgandy – Yeldon was ideal. I’m not a huge fan personally and I doubt I end up with him, but he really found himself in a good spot.  They will limit him a little with Denard, but ultimately it’s Yeldon’s job to lose.  I also love Maxx Williams’ landing spot.  He is an unrefined route runner, but I don’t think it will matter much. He is so athletically gifted at the position that with the lack of options in Baltimore and Pitta being injured by week 2 (over/under), Maxx could be in that rare position to actually produce solid fantasy numbers in year one at the TE position.
 
Bill Cervi – I would have to go with either RB TJ Yeldon or TE Maxx Williams. Since many will most likely go with Yeldon I will chose Williams. Baltimore pulled off a nice trade to jump in front of their division rivals (Pittsburgh Steelers) and land the best TE in the draft. The Ravens have been coy regarding the status of TE Dennis Pitta, but this selection screams to me that his latest hip injury may be the end of the road for his career. Williams should be able to earn a starting job right out of the gate and could develop faster that the normal 2-3 year learning curve that is associated with the position. The real action was in the third round with players like Tevin Coleman going to Atlanta, David Johnson to the Cardinals, and sadly one of my favorites WR Chris Conley ended up in WR hell when the Chiefs selected him.
 
Josh Johnson – Devin Funchess to Carolina is very intriguing. Carolina is clearly not concerned with the RB position like I think they should be. Funchess can now be a hybrid TE/slot weapon. He can learn from the steady Greg Olsen about how to be a proper TE. He can also learn from a player he’s shown flashes of being in Kelvin Benjamin. The young big targets can grow together and out jump the entire NFC South. Funchess is a work in progress but the ability is there and he will not be asked to be a key cog right away. Five years from now Olsen will gone and Funchess, Benjamin and Cam Newton might just be the three amigos.
 
Mike Krafick – Devin Funchess landed in a perfect spot at 41st overall to Carolina.  I’m not the biggest fan of the former Michigan WR/TE but I think he can be productive opposite Kelvin Benjamin for the Panthers.  Cam Newton now has two big targets to throw the ball to and I think Funchess will be a Red Zone threat and I can see him getting on the field right away in Carolina.  Panthers need pass catchers and now they have two big weapons at the WR position.
 
Gianni Maffeo – Without question it’s T.J. Yeldon. The Jaguars got surprisingly decent production out of Denard Robinson last year, but he is not the long-term answer in Jacksonville. Yeldon has the size, speed, vision, lateral quickness, and hands to succeed at the next level. He has had ball security issues and his upright running style has caused some concerns, but he’ll have every opportunity to be a viable fantasy option right away for the Jaguars. Yeldon enters the season as the most naturally gifted running back on the roster and the early favorite to receive the lion’s share of the Jaguars carries.
 
Sean Kirby [IDP] – I was previously low on ILB Benardrick McKinney.  However, landing in Houston gives him a huge opportunity to be a 3-down LB.  Brian Cushing hasn’t managed to do so recently, even during brief spurts of health.  McKinney needs to firm up his coverage game, but now threatens to be a top 3 LB in IDP rookie drafts.
 
5. Which player’s FF value was most negatively impacted by their landing spot in rounds 1 and 2?
Bill Cervi – Marcus Mariota. I completely believe that if Chip Kelly would have drafted Mariota he would have been a successful NFL QB, maybe even as early as this season. Mariota is a perfect fit for Kelly’s scheme and the familiarity/bond between player and coach can never be underestimated. Mariota will be thrown to the wolves if Tennessee HC Ken Whisenhunt has his way. He has already indicated that Mariota will start week 1 in a scheme that does not match his strengths and all while learning to make reads dropping back from center. The biggest loser in the draft fantasy wise was Tre Mason. Gurley erased his value over night and he will need Gurley to flop or get injured to regain FF relevance.
 
Josh Johnson – Todd Gurley has certainly lost some luster. I know Burgandy and Sir William Cervi will probably fire me but it’s a crowded backfield. I know he has elite talent but he might miss the first month of the season while recovering from an ACL. That is a big transition to make when you have had major injury and you don’t go full boar in training camp. The impact is humanizing for Gurley. So he is no longer a Bo Jackson like cyborg. The Marcus Dupree comparison is still very earnest. The Rams have also be very shaky on tabbing a RB1 for any length of time as of late. Not to mention the WRs in St. Louis scare no one and teams will key on their run game.
 
Mike Krafick – This one was easy for me……Todd Gurley going to St. Louis isn’t as bad as him going to Cleveland but the Rams are not in the top 20 spots I would have chosen for him.  St. Louis does not have an offense that will move the ball, they do not have much at the WR position so Gurley will see plenty of stacked boxes, and they have been talking all offseason about how they want to use Benny Cunningham on passing downs.  My first reaction to this pick at #10 overall was the same feeling I had when the Bills selected Sammy Watkins in 2014….what a waste of elite talent!  I still want Gurley on my Dynasty teams but I was hoping that he landed in a better spot.  Don’t forget the Rams selected Tre Mason only a year ago in the 3rd round at 75th overall, I still see them giving him some touches and using him in a committee mix with Gurley and Cunningham, at least early on. Gurley will be over drafted in Re-draft leagues. I’m not expecting too much from him in year one with St. Louis.
 
Gianni Maffeo – I’ll say Ameer Abdullah. Last year the Lions had the 11th most pass attempts in the league. With Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Golden Tate, it’s clear that the Lions will look to put the ball in the air early and often. All of this obviously does not help Abdullah’s fantasy prospects. While Abdullah has tremendous ability as a receiver out of the backfield, he will have to compete with Joique Bell and Theo Riddick for touches. At the same time, I’m still optimistic about Abdullah’s fantasy value overall. I think Abdullah and Riddick have a similar skill-set, but Abdullah appears to be a more explosive athlete. Bell may get most of the carries, but Abdullah may carve out a role for himself as the team’s 3rd down running back.  It’s not a bad spot for Abdullah, but there were certainly better situations out there.
 
Sean Kirby [IDP] – Shane Ray is basically off my draft board.  He was trending down before, but the 3-4 system really kills his IDP value, especially when his skills and attributes make him unlikely to even play a big snapcount. I had previously looked at Shane Ray in more depth.
 
 
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