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Dynasty Experts Q and A: 2015 Offseason #15


Each and every week we will ask our dynasty experts several questions regarding fantasy football. Our expert panel will answer anything you throw at them. We’ll look at buy-low and sell-high players along with trade questions we receive during the week from our followers as well as other general dilemmas. Here we go:

1.) Was Tom Brady’s and the Patriot’s punishment appropriate and why do you feel that way?

Burgandy – I think it is what it is. There is no right answer any more in terms of “punishment”. How do you compare beating your wife with deflating footballs? I know it’s easy to do so, but the reality is these two things aren’t even in the same stratosphere in terms of there relative nature. The integrity of the game needs to be protected on some level. It doesn’t matter if “everyone” does it. It matters what happens when you get caught. This punishment is enough to make all the teams bending or breaking the rules sit up and take notice. It probably won’t stop it, but the precedent has been set. The most frustrating part is that it SEEMS like the NFL is making it up as they go along. Which of course will be necessary on some level. A little more transparency regarding their decision would probably go a long way. They will never get a decision right again in my opinion.

Brian Hawkes – Yes. The NFL’s discipline for player and team conduct should be viewed as BRR (Before Ray Rice), and ARR (After Ray Rice). The league has been consistently strict in the ARR era. Plus, there is no disputing tampering with footballs impacted the outcomes of games. The Pats had an astounding average of one fumble per every 187 plays from 2010-2014, almost twice the league average of one fumble per 105 plays during that span. Turnovers are one of the biggest stats in relation to wins and losses.

Bill Cervi – I think there is no doubt that Brady intentionally had the balls deflated and there should be at least some minimum punishment. That said, I do not think it changed the outcome of any games and this this whole situation has gotten way out of hand. I think that Brady will win his appeal in the end and have his suspension reduced to 1-2 games and that seems fair to me.

Josh Johnson – This story is bigger than it needs to be. Many feel the punishment is steep because the Pats denied involvement for so long. Yet if they had admitted to any wrong doing right away would Brady have been suspended for the Super Bowl? It seems crazy to even ponder. With so many other similar deflation stories coming out of the woodwork I think four games seems like too much. It will be appealed down and New Englanders will still complain. Personally I would rather wax my tender areas than hear another opinion on this matter.

Mike Krafick – No I do not think that The Patriot’s punishment was appropriate at all. The NFL is so inconsistent in the way they hand out punishment, it’s always based on the public reaction to the incident. This is a big deal in the media so The NFL will hand down a stern punishment. This incident is no different that The Browns GM texting coaches or Atlanta pumping up the crowd noise but no one is talking about that, so the punishment was not a severe. Brady’s suspension will be reduced or possibly overturned, the money is chump change to New England, but the draft picks is the part that I find most excessive. All of that being said…….I am so tired of this topic, I wish some other player or team would screw up so we can stop talking deflated footballs!

2.) Which rookie RB do you have ranked higher than the main stream fantasy crowd and why?

Burgandy – Johnson and Johnson. David and Duke. They are the two best pass catchers in the draft. David is a complete physical freak who is still only now hitting his stride as a RB converted from a WR. He is a beastly man with the athleticism to match. Andre Ellington doesn’t stand a chance next to this guy and I fully expect the next Matt Forte to emerge sometime this year. Duke may have landed in a perceived poor situation, but I’m not so sure. Duke adds an entirely different dimension to the Cleveland running game. He is easily their best pass catcher and most dynamic back. In addition to that that he is a strong runner and has at least a decent shot to hold up to every down work. It would not surprise me at all to see a “Gio Bernard” type role for him early and as his explosive plays mount, seeing him siphon off more and more carries from West and Crowell. He is my bet to be the most fantasy-relevant back in Cleveland starting by the 2nd half of the season. Especially in PPR leagues.

Brian Hawkes – Jeremy Langford. Forte has been very consistent and productive back for a long time, but he’s closer to the end of his career than we realize (turns 30 this year). Plus, new OC Adam Gase has already made comments about reducing his workload in 2015. I like the well rounded skillset Langford offers to be Forte’s replacement (long term), and I like him to contribute as early as this year.

Bill Cervi – At this point of the offseason it has to be Tennessee RB David Cobb. I am not a Bishop Sankey fan so I believe that Cobb will have the opportunity to win the starting job early in the season, if not week one. I know he is not a burner, but he fits Whisenhunt’s power running scheme perfectly and with a rookie QB and a 4th round pick used on FB Jalston Fowler, the writing is on the wall that the Titans will try to run the ball. Cobb is a compact, powerful downhill runner that has great size (5′ 11″ 229 lbs.), above average vision, quick feet, soft hands and he will not be brought down with arm tackles. He is consistently available in the mid to late second round in rookie drafts and I love his risk/reward value at this point.

Josh Johnson – I still have Melvin Gordon #1 over Todd Gurley. Why do I persist with this you ask? Simply put I do not understand why the same people that downgrade Jay Ajayi because of an ACL injury two years ago continue to insist Gurley is our Lord and Master. I very strongly that Gurley and Gordon are on the same parallel. They are very different players with a similar ceiling. Given the landing spots and the seemingly uncharted waters of the NFC West, is why I choose Gordon.

Mike Krafick – I want to say TJ Yeldon for this question but I have him at #3 and I don’t think that’s much higher than most people have him, except Josh Johnson who hates TJ Yeldon. I think I will go another direction with this question, a RB that I have lower than the consensus is Duke Johnson. I hate his situation in Cleveland with Crowell and West and I have questions about ability to be more than a situational player. At Miami Duke Johnson was consistently dealing with injuries, leaving games early and playing through nagging injuries. There’s something to be said for his toughness, but I also think there’s something to be said for his lack of durability. I do not see Duke as a 3 down back in the NFL and I do not see him as a 1st round Rookie Draft pick. He is a player that is just not on my draft board.

3.) Which rookie WR do you have ranked higher than the main stream fantasy crowd and why?

Burgandy – Tyler Lockett. I love the guy. Like “Antonio Brown” love the guy. He may not be 6’5″ 220, but he will be open. Every .. single … play. Or damn close anyway. He is already making headlines in rookie training camp and this does not surprise me at all. Lockett will find a home early on special teams returning kicks. He will work his way into 3 -WR sets and they will try to ease him in as an extension of the running game. He is also more than capable of beating any DB deep which plays to Seattle’s play action-based offense. Where Lockett will eventually shine is his comeback and timing routes where the guy is virtually uncoverable. As soon as Wilson and Lockett figure each other out, Lockett could be in line for 100 receptions/year as Wilson’s first “nukey blankey”.

Brian Hawkes – Phillip Dorsett. I’m blown away with the ADP of Dorsett since he was drafted by the Colts (2.9 on DFWs post draft list). Let me get this straight… Drafted in the 1st round? Check! Paired with the best young QB in the game? Check! Depth chart in front of him not locked up long term? Check! I know Andre and TY currently reside at the top of the Colts depth chart, but one is aging, and the other is a free agent after this year. If anything, I’d be nervous as a TY Hilton owner that the Colts just drafted his replacement.

Josh Johnson – I have Tyler Lockett as my #7 Rookie WR. Please hold off on your Seattle being WR wasteland chatter. Lockett might be the best athlete of this entire draft class. He makes adjustments on the fly like a NFL veteran at the peak of their career. If he was 6-foot-3 Burgandy and Cervi would fist-fight to the death over his services. He looks and moves like running back with ball in his hands and his lack of size means he is more agile than all of the over 6-foot twitchers. In many ways he may be to WRs what Russell Wilson is to QBs. You can call it overachieving but when he is making plays for your dynasty teams you will call yourself a genius for drafting him

Bill Cervi – WR Nelson Agholor. I know he is a USC wide receiver and that they have not had a great deal of success in the NFL lately, but Agholor is not one of those WRs. In my opinion, this is a perfect combination of skill, opportunity and scheme. As long as Agholor can pick up the playbook early in OTAs and preseason, I think he has the potential to be a top 20 WR this season. And no Mr Johnson I would not be interested in Tyler Lockett if he were taller and Burgandy has been driving the Lockett hype train. :) The Seahawks are a run first team and will not throw it more than 550 times this season. Jimmy Graham should be the #1 target on the team and I just do not see Lockett seeing enough targets to be fantasy relevant above the WR #3/4 range.

Mike Krafick – Jalen Strong is getting no love since slipping to the 3rd Round in the NFL Draft. He’s a player that I thought had 1st Round talent but because of a wrist injury he slipped in the NFL Draft and therefore he’s not getting the hype he was Pre-Draft. Strong was going in the middle of the 1st round in Rookie Mocks but now I am seeing him available in the middle of the 2nd round. DFW ADP had Strong at 1.12 pre-draft and he’s currently 2.02 post-draft but I think that’s because I have been in those drafts taking him at the end of the first. Strong is very young, he turned 21 only 4 months ago and is going into a situation where he will not have to be the #1 option for his team. Check back at DFW for my Rookie Impact article on Jalen Strong coming soon.

4.) Who is your favorite late round deep sleeper RB? (selected on average in round 4 or later in rookie mocks)

Burgandy – If we are going 4th or later I will go Karlos Williams with honorable mention to Matt Jones at 3.12. Jones has already been compared to Lynch, which is only “coach-speak” but still. The real intrigue is that Alf is a free agent next year. I can totally see Jones being the reason they let the Morris walk into free agency. Washington has used and abused Morris. I hope they reward him, but the NFL is fickle and I can easily see this as the play from an organization standpoint.

Williams is such a force. His only knock is that he is a converted safety that is still finding his “natural” running style. I don’t trust Shady and I don’t trust Fjax either. At some point Fjax will be admitted to Shady Acres rest home and Shady just flat out looked bad last year. You can call it the O-line if you want, but I saw a back that was extremely hesitant behind the line of scrimmage and lacked a certain tenacity. There is no doubt Buffalo is going all in McCoy, but if he hesitates like he did last year, he will be closer to Bishop Sankey than a top 5 RB. Williams is the opposite. He’s a bulldozer and a fast one at that. He will get nothing but positive yards. If Shady doesn’t add the occasional 50 yard burst to his negative plays, Williams could be a real breath of fresh air to that offense and the coaching staff.

Brian Hawkes – Matt Jones. How can you not be excited by a guy who coaches compared to Marshawn Lynch after rookie mini camp? He has great size/speed, and I could see him unseating Alfred in the not too distant future.

Bill Cervi – Indianapolis RB Josh Robinson. There is no clear path to playing time with veteran RBs Frank Gore, Dan Herron and Zurlon Tipton already on the roster, but if you watch his game film, you can’t help but like the kid nicknamed “Bowling Ball”. Robinson is only 5′ 8″ but weighs in at a hefty 217 pounds and like his nickname indicates he is a powerful runner, with a low center of gravity that gives him above average balance and makes him hard to bring down on first contact. He will need some luck in the form of an injury to Gore or Herron to attain fantasy relevance, but he is worth the risk in the fourth round.

Josh Johnson – Dominique Brown surprisingly went undrafted and was scooped up by Tampa as a free agent. The 6-foot-2 234 pounder could be a TD vulture to keep Charles Sims healthy. Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey are most likely nothing but third down/scat backs now. Brown can also catch very well which makes him a suitable replacement should Sims ankle reek havoc again. Brown is also a slightly cheaper, more athletic version of massive fullback Jorvorskie Lane. It is a long shot, but the dart is still hitting the board for me.

Mike Krafick – Karlos Williams is a player that I am targeting in the 4th Round of a lot of my mock drafts, his current ADP is 4.10. He landed is an ideal situation in Buffalo with Rex Ryan and his Ground and Pound philosophy. McCoy is the unquestioned starter in Buffalo but Williams could compete in year one for 2nd on that depth chart. I recently read a report that speculated Fred Jackson could be cut by the team leaving on Bryce Brown and Boobie Dixon to challenge Williams for the primary backup role. More than likely Williams will not have much opportunity with the Bills in his rookie season but could play a role as early as 2016 if McCoy should miss any time.

5.) Who is your favorite late round deep sleeper WR? (selected on average in round 4 or later in rookie mocks)

Burgandy – I will go full homer-mode here and go Stephon Diggs. Here was a guy that was a top prospect heading into his most recent and final college season. He lost a little steam from the hype train in 2014, but his talent and upside remains. He has been wowing at Viking’s rookie camp. The jury is out on Corderrelle Patterson and his development. This will be Digg’s window of opportunity.

Brian Hawkes – Darren Waller or Deandre Smelter. In the late stages of the draft, I try to swing for the fence with high upside guys. Waller and Smelter offer intriguing size/speed and they both come from a run dominant system at Georgia Tech. This leaves a lot of unknown… And potentially untapped talent. I also like that there is not a lot in front of either of them on the depth chart (Baltimore and San Fransisco).

Bill Cervi – Since Waller has already been mentioned I will go with WR Devante Davis. I only saw two of his 2014 games, but he stood out in both. Against Arizona, Davis made several highlight reel catches however he had a bad drop and lumbered off the line at times. The game vs Northern Illinois he scored 2 TDs and caught the game tying 2 point conversion with one hand. Davis’ biggest obstacle going forward will be the Eagles depth chart and his ability to gain separation in the NFL. Matthews, Agholor, Huff, and Cooper are all penciled in ahead of him at this point and he will have to earn reps as a possession WR and red zone target to gain any fantasy relevance.

Josh Johnson – Mario Alford is another one those 5-foot-9 burners you just cannot resist. He was a seventh-round pick by the Bengals who plan on using him as a returner. Phillip Dorsett certainly has more warm bodies in front of him. Alford will also see time in the slot. Can you imagine a split-back formation with Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill in the backfield, A.J. Green and Mohamed Sanu on the outside and Alford threading the needle down the center of the field. His 4.27 40-time suggest many mismatch possibilities. He reminds me a lot of Laveranues Coles. Though slightly smaller I feel he can produce very similar receiving numbers in the pros.

Mike Krafick – DeAndre Smelter has an ADP of 4.03 and he’s a player I am targeting in the 4th Round. An ACL injury in December of 2014 will keep Smelter off the field for all of 2015 but he could compete for a starting job with the 49ers as soon as 2016. Anquan Boldin will turn 35 this year and Torrey Smith is just a deep threat. Smelter is a big/physical WR from Georgia Tech, they have a history of producing really productive big/physical WR’s in the NFL (Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas). Other guys I am looking at if I can’t get Smelter are Darren Waller, Kenny Bell, and Rashad Greene (all of which are being drafted in the 4th round of rookie drafts).

Do you have any burning questions you want us to answer for next week’s Q&A?  If so send them to [email protected]