Dynasty Experts Q and A: 2015 Week 3
Each and every week we will ask our dynasty experts several questions regarding fantasy football. Our expert panel will answer anything you throw at them. We’ll look at buy-low and sell-high players along with trade questions we receive during the week from our followers as well as other general dilemmas. Here we go:
1.) After a blistering pace how much is enough to move Julio in dynasty PPR right now? Would you consider the following real offer of Randall Cobb, Kelce and Martavis Bryant for your Julio?
Burgandy – Absolutely. If this is a league with deeper starting requirements, then I would make this trade all day. If I am insanely “top heavy”with no real depth or backup options, I would make this deal all day. If it’s a smaller league (10 team) or it has shallow starting requirements, I would have to think long and hard about it. Julio is still human. And it’s funny to me that Antonio Brown is still neglected when it comes to these type of questions, but that’s a conversation for a different day. On paper this trade is a no-brainer, with a few exceptions that I mentioned above.
Josh Johnson -I am going to copout and say Julio and Antonio Brown are even as the top PPR option. They both have ridiculous skill sets and unbelievable strengths. That being said I would accept that offer but I would not make that offer. I believe Martavis to be a top 30 WR option and Cobb is certainly a top 15 WR right now. So if I could net those two players and a top 3 TE, I would have to bite.
Brian Hawkes – Yes please. I would accept that offer as quickly as humanly possible. The point differential in my weekly lineup would easily offset the drop off from Julio down to Cobb over the course of the season. Assuming there would be a drop…last year Julio and Cobb finished within 1.5 points on a weekly average in a PPR scoring format. If I didn’t own a tight end named Gronk, the gain in my weekly scoring average would easily exceed 1.5 points with the addition of Kelce, which could be the assumed push value for this deal. Bryant is just icing on the cake.
Mike Krafick – Unless it is a really shallow league, I’m absolutely accepting this trade (quickly before the other owner comes to his senses). Every player has a price and this trade is a good example of what you can get for a player like Julio.
Luke Grilli- Like all trades, it depends on how your team is constructed. If I had Gronk as my TE1 and a solid WR3, no shot I’d make this move. If I had a guy like Delanie Walker and no WR depth, I’d make this move. In a vacuum, it is a pretty even deal and both owners would come out happy in the end. Julio, Antonio Brown and Gronk have all cemented their spots in the Top 3 of start ups and it will take 3 stud return like the proposed deal to even make their owner consider moving them.
Alex Onushco – I’ve been pounding the table for a career year out of Julio all offseason, and through two weeks he hasn’t disappointed. As mentioned by others, he is the 1A. to Antonio Brown’s 1B in dynasty leagues. That said, it would be awfully tough to pass on this trade. Cobb is no slouch in his own right, and Kelce is arguably the 2nd best dynasty TE. Getting Bryant on the back end of the deal is just a plus.
2.) Dynasty Dilemma – Yeldon vs David Johnson vs Matt Jones. How would you rank these 3 players?
Burgandy – Nothing has changed for me in terms of my feelings on David Johnson and TJ Yeldon. David Johnson is currently my and has remained my #3 OVERALL rookie RB from the 1st day our rookie rankings came out. I have had TJ Yeldon at #6 and have been much lower on him then most. I am both concerned about his bizarre running style and the Jacksonville offense that continues to struggle. The only thing I have changed a little on is Matt Jones. David Johnson is going to be a super stud once coach Arians takes the rookie reins off. All this guy has done for 2 straight weeks is make big play after big play. 2 TDs over 50 yards. One return and one pass. And another 40+ yard pass as well. He’s already flashed more than these other two combined when you look at actual opportunity. Matt Jones just forced a meeting between Alfred Morris and his agent to discuss free agency plans next year. He is the clear heir apparent in Washington. So after all that babbling, I would put David Johnson as my clear #1 in this equation (although you will have to be patient), Matt Jones at my solid #2, and Yeldon close after. All decent “owns”.
Josh Johnson -I would have to go Matt Jones here. I even surprised myself by making that decision but ‘Skins offense is predicated on having a work horse tailback and Jones should be their RB1 in 2016. David Johnson is going to be gimmick player for the next two seasons in a pass heavy offense. Johnson is going to be an up and down performer and a frustrating lineup decision week-to-week. Yeldon will be good when the Jags are nailing down double-digit wins. Until then however he is an RB3 option with a limited upside.
Brian Hawkes – Yeldon, Johnson, Jones. I know Jones has had the most success through two weeks, but I like Yeldon’s situation best of this trio. He was drafted the highest of these three because he is the most gifted player, and the depth chart supports him being a 3-down back for the foreseeable future (assuming he grabs the opportunity). Jones will likely take over as the lead back in the near future, but as many pre-draft scouts would agree, Jones skill-set is not as complete as Yeldon’s. Johnson could emerge as a Matt Forte-esque player in time. In short, this is how I had these three backs ranked into the draft, and I’m not changing that ranking after two weeks.
Mike Krafick – Prior to the season starting I had Yeldon, Johnson, Jones and I’m not ready to change that at this point. Yeldon is the only one with a Bell Cow role and the Jags aren’t as terrible as everyone expected them to be. Johnson is an exciting player with the ball in his hand and can take it to the house on any play but I’m not convinced that Arians is going to give him enough volume to be a reliable every week starter, he has 3 TD’s on 7 touches and that is just not sustainable. Matt Jones blew up in week 2 and his value has taken off, but it’s only one week and he’s still in a RBBC. I think Jones takes over as the lead back in that committee but Alfred Morris will still get carries, Washington will not have many games this year where they run the ball 37 times.
Luke Grilli- Can I say 1a, 1b and 1c, or is that too cheap? As of TODAY, I guess I have to go with Jones, Yeldon and Johnson. Jones should continue to split reps with Alfred Morris and see some looks out of the backfield. TJ Yeldon is clearly the lead back in Jacksonville, but has had trouble producing numbers so far. Meanwhile, David Johnson looks electric, but he has Bruce Arians hatred of rookies holding him back. We also can’t forget that Andre Ellington, though he is injury prone, will be around for a few more years. Unless Johnson absolutely blows us away with his production, he is stuck in a RBBC.
Alex Onushco – I’d have to go Yeldon, Jones and then Johnson on this one. Yeldon is what we thought he was: a talented RB being featured as an every-down back on a struggling (but improving) offense. As the offense continues to improve, so should Yeldon’s numbers. Jones definitely proved me wrong in Week 2, and his start over Alfred Morris in Week 3 confirms that the team wants him to become the lead dog. Morris won’t simply disappear, however, which means Jones’ touches on any given week are hard to project. Johnson has also looked great, but I need to see how he operates as the lead back before he receives my blessing.
3.) With a lot of teams freaking out after going 0-2 to start the season when do you really start to hit the panic button and start looking towards the following season?
Burgandy – Not until I’m about 0-4 or 0-5. A lot of it has to do with how badly I am losing the games. If I am being very competitive but things just are not “clicking” I will stick it out till at least week 5. It only takes a little shift on the luck meter to have you rattle off 5 or 6 in a row. However there are a couple teams I own, that I was already looking to 2016 before kick off of 2015. One of those teams is miraculously 1-1 but my 1 win came on a pathetic stroke of luck for my opponent. I know this team isn’t going anywhere and I am already planning for next year.
Josh Johnson -Well as a Raider fan (insert laugh track) it is very easy to abandon ship. But four games under .500 is pretty much a death sentence in the NFL. Then you are left with just the pride of beating your division rivals and the hopes of a high draft pick. Conversely I cannot imagine enduring a 0-16 season a fan of a team or even as a stadium worker for that team. It was bad enough watching that happen a general football fan.
Brian Hawkes – Depends…If I’m losing while scoring amongst the top teams in my league, I chalk those losses up to fluke head-to-head matchups and short luck. If this is the case, I don’t freak until I’m eliminated from the playoffs (likely 0-6). If I’m losing while scoring amongst the lowest scoring teams in the league, I’m looking to make some changes at 0-3.
Mike Krafick – I have started a season 0-6 and rallied to make a playoff push (finishing in 2nd place) but that is not the normal situation. With head to head matchups crazy things can happen and you can lose by one point to the highest scoring team each week, there is still random luck involved in fantasy football. That being said, each owner needs to assess their team and be realistic about their ability to compete that year. After week 4 I have a pretty clear picture of what my team is and can make moves accordingly.
Luke Grilli- Usually around the 4 or 5 game mark. If you have won 0 or 1 game at that point, and it isn’t due to injuries to your squad, it is time to trade off whatever assets you may have and look towards next year. Also, teams that are contending are far more willing to move a 1st or 2nd round pick for the aging veteran that could put their team over the top. A great example is Frank Gore. He has underwhelmed thus far and many are writing him and the Colts off. What some may not realize is that Gore and the Colts have gone against Buffalo and the Jets, both teams that have pretty stout run defenses. The Colts schedule will get much softer over the next few weeks (Titans, Jags, Houston, New England, Saints), so Gore will have a chance to produce some numbers. Today, you can probably get a 2nd round pick for him. After Week 5, you can probably get a 1st rounder for him, or at least a 2nd round pick plus a little added bonus.
Alex Onushco – I usually begin trying to make moves once I go 0-4. That said, it is important to not simply blow up your team: rather, take stock of your team and identify which players are worth trading away and which ones should be kept as building blocks for the future. If you are trying to trade away older players, your best bet may be to wait until a few weeks before the playoffs, as that is time when owners on the cusp will be looking for ways to put them over the top.
4.) Who do you think will be the better NFL prospect, LSU RB Leonard Fournette or OSU RB Ezekiel Elliot?
Burgandy – What a fantastic question. I think Elliot is the more polished of the two backs. His pass blocking is already at an NFL level. He is extremely well rounded and extremely talented. Fournette is the better “pure” talent. And I am nit-picking here. Leonard is very special. His talent is right in line with a Todd Gurley or Adrian Peterson when he ultimately comes out of college. The safe bet is on Elliot and that is where I will put my $$. With only a slightly lesser “wow” factor combined with the intangibles of the position that FORCES coaches to keep you on the field, Elliot will immediately be a workhorse back with extremely high upside the second he arrives in the NFL.
Josh Johnson –They are both power backs but Fournette has quicker feet. Elliott is no slouch but I see him run away from contact to much for me to think of him as an every down RB in the NFL. His breakaway speed might pigeon hole him as third down back. Fournette on the other hand breaks tackles and ankles. He seems like a more of a volume back at the next level. He also has a sturdier lower body that will get him the extra tough yards between the tackles.
Brian Hawkes – “Man Crush Alert” – Fournette. He has everything you look for in a running back – size, speed, elusiveness, explosiveness, vision, strength. He is one of the best running back prospects to come along since Adrian Peterson. Both players will be very good pros – but Fournette’s ceiling is higher.
Mike Krafick – I do not think there is a wrong answer to this question, both will be great players at the next level and what will likely ultimately determine who is better is their landing spot after the NFL Draft. But if I have to choose one right now give me Ezekiel Elliot.
5.) What do you guys make of 5’8″ 195 pound Dion Lewis after two weeks, is he the next Justin Forsett?
Burgandy – He’s the next Shane Vereen. This is New England we are talking about. I jumped on the Dion Lewis train about 3 days before everyone else and fortunately I was able to put him on every roster (minus DFW IDP36 who shut down waivers for the last week of the season for some reason and allowed him to flash in week 1). This is New England. Start him if you will, but don’t be surprised if James White gets all the carries this week. Just saying.
Josh Johnson -I am simply waiting for a week when Lewis has three carries for seven yards and one reception for five yards. Basically his volume will trickle off as opponents figure how to slow him down. He is not this year’s Forsett and I expect more from LeGarrette Blount as early as this week versus the Jags. Being a Pats RB is sort of like being a playboy bunny, hence your spotlight or prime can be very brief and somewhat degrading. I own Lewis is a dynasty and a redraft so I hope he is the MVP but I have not started him yet and I am still on the fence about using him this week.
Brian Hawkes – Dion Lewis plays for the New England Patriots. He is a running back. He’s had two nice games. Jonas Gray played for the New England Patriots. He is a running back. He had two nice games. In all seriousness, Lewis has had two nice games, but he did this while Blount was suspended and returning to action. I need to see this production over a longer period of time before I’m interested in Lewis.
Mike Krafick – I picked up Dion Lewis after week 1 in a few leagues but didn’t have the stones to start him against the Bills, I thought with Blount coming back he would see the majority of the carries and Lewis would be the 3rd down back………well I was wrong. Blount had only 2 carries for 4 yards but Lewis only carried the ball 7 times in that game. New England threw the ball 59 times in a shoot out game with Buffalo and Lewis racked up his fantasy production in the passing game. One thing I do know about New England Running Backs is I usually have little to no idea how they will be used week to week. Lewis is a sell high right now, we could be having the same conversation about Brandon Bolden in a few weeks.
Luke Grilli- Considering that I was able to grab Lewis at the end of one of my drafts, I’m pumped about him! While he’s has been awesome, we have to pump the brakes a bit on him. In Week 1, LeGarrette Blount was suspended. Week 2, the Pats went against the Bills who have a great run defense. If we know anything about Belichick, we know he is the master of game planning and using personnel that best fits the Patriots offense approach that week. Though I expect Lewis to continue to be a factor in the Patriots high octane offense, I would expect to see more of the Blount battering ram over the next few weeks, leaving Lewis with the no huddle and pass catching responsibilities. That is still a VERY valuable role for fantasy purposes, but can be inconsistent as we have seen with Shane Vereen’s usage in the past.
Alex Onushco – Lewis won’t be finishing every week with double-digit fantasy points, but he certainly has proven to be a capable RB3 or FLEX player. The trick with him is trying to identify games where his skill set is better mismatch for the opposing defense than LeGarrette Blount’s. But good luck with that.
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