Dynasty Experts Q and A: 2016 Week 11
Each and every week we will ask our dynasty experts several questions regarding fantasy football. Our expert panel will answer anything you throw at them. We’ll look at buy-low and sell-high players along with trade questions we receive during the week from our followers as well as other general dilemmas and draft questions. Here we go:
1.) What is the biggest misconception or mistake people make in-season with their dynasty squad?
Burgandy – Waiting on players to turn it around or waiting for the other shoe to drop on a player out performing their expectations. The only thing we know for sure is that there will be a large handful of players that either drastically over perform or drastically under perform. It is tricky to determine who to be patient on, but typically its a stud. Dez Bryant is a perfect example. His situation is simply one of being dinged up and having a new QB to build chemistry with. You wait that out. However in the case of someone like Tyrell Williams in SD, you have a rookie WR who was thrust into a prominent position with an injured Keenan Allen and a very good QB. After a week or two of exceptional production, you have to look at that situation and be willing to buy for maybe a little more than you would want. Even with Allen back, he’s a dynasty asset. He’s young and he’s in position to be a relatively cheap WR2 with WR1 upside for you to dominate THIS year. I hope that makes sense.
Brian Hawkes – Moving on too quickly from a slow to start rookie. There are always a couple rookie that make an immediate impact, but since the 2014 WR class I feel the dynasty communities expectation for rookies to come in and dominate is not realistic. Some players take a minute to get up to speed, some battle circumstance or injury. A perfect example is CJ Prosise – he appeared to be buried on the depth chart until a couple weeks ago… and suddenly, his situation has changed dramatically. Trust your scouting, and trust player pedigree – Players like Laquon Treadwell are not busts. Stay patient – these guys can be very valuable dynasty assets.
Josh Johnson – Most people enter the dynasty realm after years of redraft experience/success. They likely have the know how to hit on certain rookies in redraft. In turn the will go too heavy on rookies whether it be in a rookie draft or by trading veteran talent away. If you play against anybody with more dynasty experience than you they will spot this trend and exploit it by eating your lunch. Rookies are fun to scout and debate over but a small percentage of them find immediate success. If you have taken over a orphaned team I understand you will want to fill our your roster with “your” players. Yet nobody dominates there league with a medium age of 24. Trading veteran talent for picks is often an overused practiced during rookie drafts. Again if your league mates are savvy they will defer to the veteran talent leaving you to draft Tyler Ervin or Josh Robinson (RB out of Mississippi State who was practice squaded and released by the Colts). What’s worse is that you will find getting those vets back is even harder to accomplish. That is unless you want to trade Jalen Richard for Justin Forsett. Trust me I have learned these lessons the hard way and I have seen the mountain I still have to climb.
Shaun Laibe – I have seen too many fringe playoff teams selling off high quality dynasty assets well below their value in an attempt to win now. Naturally, everyone wants to win their league’s championship, and if you have a chance to do it, I’d always recommend going for it. The problem is when a team sells their soul to win now, it can be severely damaging to their team’s long term success. Take for example the CJ Anderson owner in one of my dynasty leagues. A few weeks ago, that owner traded Sammy Watkins straight up for Devontae Booker. It has been about 3 weeks since the trade and already it looks foolish. Holding onto guys like Derrick Henry, Laquon Treadwell, and Kenneth Dixon will take up precious roster space now, but you’ll be glad you did in 2017.
Jamie Will – There’s too much focus on the extremes, as in it’s almost always “win now or bust” or full firesale mode. There are too many stories like the one Shaun mentioned in which an owner of a fringe team mortgages too much of the future in order for a CHANCE to win now. If you’re a front-running team and can fill a clear need, that’s one thing and I would advise someone in that scenario to make a calculated move for the short-term. But if you’re a fringe team, mortgaging valuable future assets for just a chance at the short-term often ends up leaving you with a whole lot of nothing. The same goes for those who rely too much on rookies and always look at the future. There needs to be an eye on both the current and the future if you want to have sustained success.
2.) Make an argument for both sides of this Dynasty Trade. Jordan Matthews & Andy Dalton for Tom Brady & Julian Edelman?
Burgandy – Andy Dalton is underrated and JMatt is just beginning a beautiful and productive relationship with a up-and-coming stud QB in Carson Wentz. Father Time will catch Brady as well and Edleman is a dime a dozen slot receiver on his own team. On the other hand, Brady has far more consistent upside than Dalton and Edleman might be the most undervalued WR1 in the history of fantasy football.
Brian Hawkes – Tom Brady and Julian Edelman are primed for stackable success. If you look at the target trends for Edelman, you know the touchdowns are coming. Edelman has proven to be a reliable target for Brady, and Brady might be the most steady, elite QB in the league. This is a combination I really like. Andy Dalton is often overlooked, but his fantasy production speaks for itself especially when he has his full compliment of weapons. I’m very bullish on Dalton to close this season with Eifert and Green healthy (QB8-QB10 finishes in 4 of his last five weeks). Matthews is the guy in the Eagles passing game, and he brings consistent target opportunity to trust as a WR2, with potential for WR1 production any given week.
Josh Johnson – I might be an even bigger fan of “the Red Rifle” (Dalton) than Luke Grilli is but this season has not been awe inspiring. JMatt’s inconsistency lies with his at times questionable hands, his new coaching staff and his rookie QB. If I am rebuilding I want the Dalton/JMatt side but I would probably hold out for a 2017 3rd if possible. We know how great Brady and Edelman can and will be. Brady is a definite upgrade at QB over Dalton at this point of the season if you are in a win now scenario. The recent Gronk punctured lung situation is the reason I would ask for the additional 3rd round pick. Edelman is a reception vacuum but he only has 22 TDs in his eight year NFL career.
Shaun Laibe – I want the Brady and Edelman side if my team has a chance to win a championship this year. Brady has returned from his suspension with a vengeance, averaging 327 yards per game and having thrown 12 touchdowns in only five games. Edelman has been a prime beneficiary, seeing an uptick in targets since Brady’s return. The argument for Dalton and Matthews has much to do with the age factor. Both are still in the prime of their careers and will likely play longer into the future…unless Brady plays until he’s 50. I especially like Jordan Matthews long term. As Carson Wentz continues to develop, Matthews’ production is sure to follow.
Jamie Will – If we’re taking these two options in a vacuum without any other context, I’d say that the Brady/Edelman side has the higher upside for up to a 2-year window. Brady could very well play at a high level forever because he is truly a machine, but the reality is that these things typically hit and fall off the proverbial cliff at some point. I expect him to still be the same Brady we see now for at least two more years, which would still make him a valuable dynasty component. Edelman’s value ties directly to two principles: Brady and PPR. I’m more concerned about Edelman breaking down than Brady, though, because he’s starting to have injury issues and the decline for slot receivers who rely on quickness can come quickly, and harshly (see Wes Welker.) On the other side, I love Jordan Matthews’ long-term potential as he grows with Carson Wentz. I could see him being a reliable possession weapon and red-zone option for many years, which gives him a lot of dynasty upside. I’m not worried about the drops because I feel that they’re more a product of trying to do too much as a young player without much help from his WR brethren. As for Dalton, I’m not a huge fan but he still has a number of prime years left and he has A.J. Green, so there is plenty of built-in upside. If Tyler Boyd can develop into another quality WR, then Dalton has every chance to be a viable starter for many years.
3.) Despite many lackluster performances by Brock Osweiler the Texans are still 6-3. Do you want any part him in your dynasty future?
Burgandy – No. I have seen enough of Brock to know his upside is limited to that of a game manager. QB3 with QB2 upside.
Brian Hawkes – No.
Josh Johnson – Brock has job security right? He can’t get much worse? Like Brian Hoyer in the playoffs bad I mean. The bar for QBs in Houston is in the latter stages of limbo (that means low). Because of his job security he a far better asset in two QB leagues than the likes of Cody Kessler and Nick Foles. I certainly want Osweiler over Jay Cutler, Tony Romo and Ryan Fitzpatrick. He is more secure than Colin Kaepernick, Jared Goff and any 2017 rookie QB. I would even trade both Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford for Osweiler all day because he can’t get worse right? His most recent game saw him throw for a laughable 99 yards but he did throw two TD passes and zero INTs. That performance tied what Matt Ryan did in week 10 and Osweiler out scored Andy Dalton, Tom Brady, Alex Smith and Carson Wentz.
Shaun Laibe – I wouldn’t touch Brock Osweiler with a 10-foot pole. The Texans maybe be 6-3, but it has been in spite of Osweiler. Coming off of a 99-yard passing performance against the Jaguars, he has entrenched himself as one of the worst Quarterbacks in the league, at least statistically. I’m not sure whether it is worse that he had just 99 yards, or that it took him 27 passes to get there. Either way, the numbers are just downright bad. His completion percentage is also among the lowest in the league at just under 59%. Fortunately for you and me, we can completely avoid Brock Osweiler in dynasty leagues. Unfortunately for the Texans, they are stuck with Mr. Osweiler and his 4-year, $72 million contract. I’m not ruling out a possibility of his eventual fantasy relevance, I’d just rather take a shot on about 25 other Quarterbacks
Jamie Will – Let’s just say my phone autocorrects to “Assweiler,” so that’s just the beginning of what I think of this guy… Whoever sold his mythical skillset to the world is a P.R. genius, because the Texans (and many fantasy owners) bought the magic beans. We’re at a point where the Texans are hiding Assweiler way more blatantly and aggressively than Rex Ryan ever did with Mark Sanchez in New York. I continue to be astonished that he has actually rendered DeAndre Hopkins irrelevant, which in turn has likely led many Texan faithful to yearn for the glory days of Brian Hoyer… That should NEVER HAPPEN. He was billed as a big, strong-armed QB who was ready to take over thanks to many years of tutelage under Peyton Manning and Gary Kubiak. The reality is that the only thing worse than his grossly overrated, shitty arm is his ability to read defenses, which I would say is somewhere around a 3rd grade level.
4.) Team defenses are impossible to predict but pick one for the rest of the season?
Burgandy – I like Dallas. The key to any defense is the ability to play aggressive. Nothing allows you to be aggressive better than a lead. Dallas is looking scary. The O-line is simply dominant and Zeke is taking advantage of it. Constantly being in the lead, with allow that defense to be opportunistic. That bodes well in a division with Eli Manning, rookie Carson Wentz, and the ever turnover-prone Kirk Cousins.
Brian Hawkes – Denver. I don’t care who they play because their defense dictates how the opponent performs. How can you not like a defense that ranks: 2nd in Sacks, 4th in Interceptions, and 1st in Fumble Recoveries. As for who they play…the Jaguars and Titans are on the schedule in weeks 13-14.
Josh Johnson – New England plays at San Francisco, at NY Jets, vs Los Angeles, vs Baltimore, at Denver and vs NY Jets to close the season. Now I haven’t check every team’s schedule but that looks pretty damn good. I doubt they are on the waiver wire but they are certainly a team defense worth trading for if you want to set it and forget it. After that brutal home loss to Seattle the Pats should be on a blood thirsty rampage.
Shaun Laibe – If I had to choose one defense to ride for the rest of the year, I’d take the Legion of Boom in Seattle. Coming off of a huge goal line stand against Tom Brady and the Patriots in Week 10, Seattle now gets to play four of their next six games at home. The aid of the “12th man” cannot be calculated with fantasy points, but it no doubt adds to their overall defensive strength. The remaining schedule includes a slew of struggling offenses as they will get Philadelphia, Green Bay, LA, and Arizona in the coming weeks.
Jamie Will – I am riding with New England here, largely thanks to the schedule that Josh laid out above. Two Jets games and home matchups with L.A. and Baltimore would have my attention regardless of the defense. But when you factor in that game flow will likely require these offenses to be in complete comeback mode, it could be a fantasy goldmine. None of the offenses on that schedule are built to survive that kind of scenario. I’m in.
5.) Turkey Leg Award Time: Who will be top Fantasy scorer on Thanksgiving?
Burgandy – Antonio Brown vs the worst pass defense in the league (Indy). Brown is due for a gaudy game. Something like 9/186/2 or something like that. Zeke could be a good honorable mention.
Brian Hawkes – Stefon Diggs (PPR scoring). Diggs just roasted the Lions for 13/80 (and followed with 13/164 v. WSH). He’s due for some touchdowns, his targets are ridiculous, and his market share is through the roof. Diggs is the Vikings’ offense right now and he will deliver on Thanksgiving.
Josh Johnson – Win: Antonio Brown 8/104/2
Place: Stefon Diggs 8/92/1
Show: Zeke Elliott 19/102/1
Shaun Laibe – I’m going to ride the hot hand with Zeke Elliott as my Turkey Leg Award winner. Elliott has averaged more than 22 carries and 124 yards per game on the ground over the last seven weeks, tops among all running backs. He has also scored a touchdown in all but three games this year. Look for him to continue that success against Washington on Thanksgiving Day.
Jamie Will – I hate to say it, while I sit here in a “Welcome to Wentzylvania” t-shirt, but it is going to be Zeke. It makes too much sense. He’s on an incredible roll, Washington’s defense is extremely beatable, and the national spotlight will be all over his first Thanksgiving Day game. It almost seems too easy, but in this case I believe that the easy call is the one to make.
Do you have any burning questions you want us to answer for next week’s Q&A? If so send them to [email protected] and if your question is used in the weekly article you’ll receive a $5 discount towards a Gold or Silver DFW Insider membership.