Dynasty QB Rankings: 11 Thru 20
By Joe Kilroy (@KilroyDFW)
Click this link to view: Dynasty QB Rankings 1 Thru 10
11. COLIN KAEPERNICK, San Francisco 49ers | DOB: 11/3/1987 (25)
Short Term Outlook (STO): The loss of Michael Crabtree doesn’t bode well for Kaepernick’s production in the year ahead. Even with the addition of veteran receiver Anquan Boldin it will be difficult for the 49ers to make up for the 85 receptions, 1105 receiving yards, and 9 touchdown receptions Crabtree delivered in 2012. If Kaepernick can make use of Vernon Davis like he had in the playoffs it will go along way in upping his fantasy output. His ability to run should allow him to retain his value as a fantasy starter however provided his passing statistics don’t suffer tremendously.
Long Term Outlook (LTO): Kaepernick became a fantasy darling after taking over for an injured Alex Smith in Week 10 last year. His production in the NFL playoffs only added to that perception. He enters 2013 as the 49ers starting QB for the first time in his career and with it comes added pressure along with heightened expectations after San Francisco’s run to the Super Bowl. A strong outing this year would go a long way in cementing himself amongst the best fantasy options at his position. It would also factor into whether the 49ers are ready to sign him to a long term deal as his current contract only runs through the 2014 season.
12. TONY ROMO, Dallas Cowboys | DOB: 4/21/1980 (33)
STO: Romo is coming off a career high 4903-yard passing season but did so while attempting a career high 648 pass attempts (nearly 100 more than in any other year). With Bill Callahan calling plays in Dallas this season that number should take a significant dip and as such so will Romo’s passing statistics. Nonetheless he should remain a quality fantasy starter in the year ahead.
LTO: Romo’s been a steady starter for fantasy owners over the years but hasn’t been amongst the elite options at his position. With the emergence of younger stars such as Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, and Colin Kaepernick – along with a few others knocking on the door (see Andy Dalton and Sam Bradford for example) – Romo’s dynasty value is starting to slide. He should be a worthwhile starter for a few more seasons, but his age along with the unlikelihood of him suddenly producing 4500-plus and 30-plus touchdown seasons on a regular basis makes it doubtful his value will climb any higher than where it currently stands.
13. ANDY DALTON, Cincinnati Bengals | DOB: 10/29/1987 (25)
STO: Dalton made some notable strides in his level of production from his rookie season to last year. He threw for seven more touchdowns and 271 more yards in 2012 than he had in 2011. If he can match that level of TD output or reach the 30-mark while upping his passing yards to something in the 4000-range he’d be in QB1 territory.
LTO: The Bengals are attempting to open their offense up a bit more going forward and if successful in their attempts to do so it will certainly make for better fantasy production from Dalton in the years ahead. This season and next will go a long way in determining which direction Dalton’s career is headed. His current deal is set to expire following the 2014 season.
14. ELI MANNING, New York Giants | DOB: 1/3/1981 (32)
STO: Whenever fantasy owners begin to feel Eli has proven himself as a weekly starter he tends to follow it up with a disappointing stretch of games that leads them to believe otherwise. In 2012 he had his least productive campaign since 2008 after having a career year in 2011. A healthy Hakeem Nicks however – along with emerging talents such as David Wilson and Rueben Randle – could result in a strong bounce back outing from Manning in the year ahead.
LTO: The two-time Super Bowl champion won’t be leaving New York anytime soon. Recent reports suggest the Giants are close to signing Victor Cruz to a long term deal, but Hakeem Nicks’ future with the team remains uncertain beyond this season. If the Giants can keep both receivers in place long term and/or Rueben Randle breaks out this year or next Eli Manning could have a few seasons like 2011 in store for his fantasy owners.
15. RYAN TANNEHILL, Miami Dolphins | DOB: 7/27/1988 (24)
STO: Tannehill had a pretty decent rookie campaign but it wasn’t nearly on par with counterparts Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, or Robert Griffin III. Entering his second season however he has better talent surrounding him with new targets Mike Wallace, Dustin Keller, and Brandon Gibson at his disposal. Recent commentary from teammates as well as NFL pundits Chris Mortensen and Ron Jaworski indicate Tannehill is poised for significant levels of improvement this year. That may prove true, but for now he shouldn’t be valued higher than QB2-terrority in 2013.
LTO: Long term Tannehill’s prospects appear to be bright. He’s locked in as Miami’s franchise quarterback and with the upgraded talent and recent buzz surrounding him his value in dynasty leagues could significantly rise by the end of the year. The yardage will likely come his way, but it’s the number of touchdown passes he can be relied upon on a yearly basis that will determine how close he comes to cracking the top twelve of dynasty quarterbacks.
16. PHILIP RIVERS, San Diego Chargers | DOB: 12/8/1981 (31)
STO: Rivers had a subpar year in 2012 and as such his value has plummeted in both redraft and dynasty formats. New offensive minded head coach Mike McCoy, along with offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, however, should go a long way in helping Rivers rebound. Better blocking from the offensive line would also be a tremendous help.
LTO: Although Rivers is currently signed through 2015 there are more than a few that feel he could be a cap casualty after this season. Given the options behind him however (Charlie Whitehurst, rookie seventh round pick Brad Sorensen, and undrafted rookie Mike Hermann) it’s reasonable to conclude he’ll remain in San Diego for at least one more year. How he performs under McCoy and Whisenhunt this season will factor significantly into determining his future value.
17. SAM BRADFORD, St. Louis Rams | DOB: 11/8/1987 (25)
STO: After a dismal sophomore campaign Bradford came through with a solid season last year. He isn’t likely to be a worthy fantasy starter during the upcoming season, but he seems to be nudging in that direction.
LTO: The Rams have a lot of young and new faces amongst their receiving core (Tavon Austin, Chris Givens, Austin Pettis, Brian Quick, Stedman Bailey) along with veteran tight end Jared Cook added to the mix. If one or two of these components develops into a legitimate go-to target or big playmaker for Bradford his value will rise significantly over the next year or two.
18. JOSH FREEMAN, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DOB: 1/13/1988 (25)
STO: Freeman compiled some noteworthy statistics from a fantasy standpoint, but his consistency wasn’t always that great. That has led to less than thrilling endorsements for the fifth-year signal caller from head coach Greg Schiano (although he has recently changed his tune). If Freeman pulls it all together he could be a solid starter had late in redrafts. If he falters and Tampa Bay finds themselves falling out of playoff contention however Schiano may turn things over to rookie Mike Glennon.
LTO: Freeman is set to become a free agent at the end of the year. Given that, along with Schiano’s hesitancy to strongly commit to Freeman as his quarterback of the future it’s nearly impossible to accurately determine his long term outlook. Barring a miserable 2013 campaign however it’s likely Freeman will be starting in 2014 – it’s simply a matter of where. Once settled in somewhere his value should begin to trend back upwards.
19. ALEX SMITH, Kansas City Chiefs | DOB: 5/7/1984 (29)
STO: Smith’s tenure in San Francisco is largely unmemorable for fantasy owners, but he has a golden opportunity ahead of him in Kansas City under Andy Reid. Under Reid’s tutelage while operating within a pass first offense it’d be a bit of a surprise if Smith fails to perform as a worthy fantasy back-up in 2013 that can be relied upon for sufficient production over a stretch of games if your starter misses time due to injury.
LTO: Smith had to work with seven different offensive coordinators during his eight-year tenure in San Francisco, so it’s of little wonder why he never settled in comfortably there as the starter. As such working with one of the best quarterback mentors in the league (Andy Reid) should do wonders for Smith’s career. His current deal expires after the 2014 season so Smith will have to earn an extension through his level play over the next year or two. But given the Chiefs dealt the 34th overall selection of the 2013 draft along with a 3rd round pick in 2014 (which could become a second rounder) it’s fair to say a long term deal will be reached provided Smith meets coach Reid’s expectations.
20. JAY CUTLER, Chicago Bears | DOB: 4/29/1983 (30)
STO: It’s been awhile since Jay Cutler held any amount of significant value regardless of league format. With new head coach Marc Trestman running things in Chicago however the veteran signal caller may finally post the type of numbers he hasn’t had since 2008-2009.
LTO: Cutler’s current deal expires at the end of the year. If he doesn’t show well under Trestman chances are he won’t be welcomed back in Chicago. At age 31 entering next season he’d likely get another crack at starting somewhere should he become a free agent. It’s worth noting that Chicago’s offense hasn’t attempted more than 485 passes in a season over the last three years. A more air based attack could do wonders for Cutler’s value in fantasy leagues whether it comes under Trestman this year or elsewhere in the future.
Click this link to view: Dynasty QB Rankings 21 Thru 30