Dynasty QB Rankings: The Top 10
By Joe Kilroy (@KilroyDFW)
When building a dynasty team it’s important to not only consider what a player’s immediate impact will be, but to also look ahead and project his status a few years from now. In this portion of the rankings we’ll focus on the top ten quarterbacks to own with rankings 11-40 to come throughout the remainder of the week.
There’s no formula to give us a definitive set of rankings that one can set in stone, so with that in mind I’d caution readers to view this more as a guide or cheat sheet one should follow as opposed to thinking every quarterback should drafted or valued in the exact order listed. For that matter I may not even take them off the list I’m about to provide in the order I have them ranked. It all depends on which round I could ultimately get certain players (whose ADP is lower than I value them such as Matthew Stafford; and which are way above where I’d select them such as Andrew Luck) along with the overall make-up of my roster.
In addition to this list provided below and what’s to come I’d also like to remind viewers to check DFW’s Dynasty Rankings which are updated frequently at the beginning of every month.
Now onto the list…
1. AARON RODGERS, Green Bay Packers | DOB: 12/2/1983 (29)
Short Term Outlook (STO):Rodgers has never thrown for less than 28 touchdowns or 3922 yards during his five seasons as a starter. He has surpassed 4000 yards passing in all but one of those seasons and has combined for 84 touchdown passes during the last two years. He should be a lock for no less than 30 touchdowns and 4000 passing yards once again.
Long Term Outlook (LTO): At just 29-years of age Aaron Rodgers offers dynasty leaguers the best combination of youth and guaranteed elite production at the quarterback position. He’s signed long term with the Packers and surrounded by strong, relatively youthful talent. There’s no reason to believe he’ll suffer a significant decline in production or value anytime soon.
2. DREW BREES, New Orleans Saints | DOB: 1/15/1979 (34)
STO: Brees has offered fantasy owners outstanding production on a regular basis over the past five years. During that span he has thrown for no less than 33 touchdowns or 4388 yards passing. He has surpassed the 5000-yard passing and 40-touchdown mark in each of his last two seasons. With Sean Payton back in place as head coach following his one-year suspension there’s good reason to believe Brees will continue on his torrent pace.
LTO: Brees is getting older, but even at 34 he should still have enough elite seasons left in him to warrant a selection in dynasty start-up leagues over everyone at his position aside from Rodgers. He’s signed through the 2016 season with the Saints and has shown no signs of slowing down.
3. MATTHEW STAFFORD, Detroit Lions | DOB: 2/7/1988 (25)
STO:Stafford’s 20 touchdown passes were a major disappointment last year, but he still produced as one of the better fantasy quarterbacks while throwing for just under 5000 yards. The Detroit Lions tend to pass the ball more than any other team in the league, so expect Stafford to approach the 5000 yard mark once again. The addition of Reggie Bush should only increase his chances of reaching that goal. Its doubtful Calvin Johnson will be limited to just five touchdowns again as well, so expect Stafford’s touchdown output to be no less than 28. And remember he’s only one year removed from throwing for more than 40.
LTO: The Lions are reportedly trying to sign Stafford to a long term deal but may not be able to do so prior to the season. There really isn’t any rush however because Stafford is currently signed through 2014 with a team option at $15 million for 2015. Expect him to be the Lions franchise quarterback for a long time to come and regularly throw for 4500-plus yards and no less than 26 touchdowns per season.
4. MATT RYAN, Atlanta Falcons | DOB: 5/17/1985 (28)
STO: The Falcons opened their offense up last year under new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter and sure enough Matt Ryan reached career highs in both passing yards (4719) and touchdowns (32). With Roddy White and Julio Jones forming possibly the best wide receiver duo in the league and Tony Gonzalez returning for yet another season expect Ryan to produce similar results in the year ahead. Steven Jackson is expected to increase Atlanta’s run production, but not so much that it will hinder Ryan’s fantasy value.
LTO: Ryan’s current contract expires after the 2013 season, but he and the team are in negotiations to settle on a long term deal. Whether or not they come to agreement before the season starts won’t matter all that much, however. If needed they’ll simply place the franchise tag on him after the season and sooner or later a long term deal will be struck. As for his fantasy outlook Roddy White and Julio Jones should remain an excellent wide receiver tandem for a few more years. And whenever Roddy does show signs of aging Julio will be sure to pick up the slack.
5. CAM NEWTON, Carolina Panthers | DOB: 5/11/1989 (24)
STO:The Panthers offense doesn’t tend to excite anyone, but nonetheless Cam Newton finds a way to provide his fantasy owners impressive results. Until proven otherwise it’s hard to claim he’ll suddenly drop off a cliff in terms of production.
LTO:I generally shy away from quarterbacks that rely heavily upon their legs for fantasy output due to injury concerns and other reasons. Newton tends to be the one current exception for me at the moment however. While he would lose a lot of value if his rushing stats diminished his passing yardage totals have been impressive. The fact he’s avoided injury through his first two seasons despite his tendency to run plays in his favor as well. His current deal expires after the 2014 season.
6. ANDREW LUCK, Indianapolis Colts | DOB: 9/12/1989 (23)
STO: Luck put together an impressive rookie campaign last season, but offensive coordinator Bruce Arians has left Indianapolis to sign on as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. The Colts have signed Luck’s college coordinator, Pep Hamilton, to replace Arians which should benefit the second-year signal caller but Hamilton’s first time stint as an NFL coordinator may mean we don’t see as much growth from Luck in 2013 as many might expect.
LTO:Luck may be without Bruce Arians this year, but it’s doubtful that will cause him any long term setbacks during his career. I tend to think he’s currently being valued a bit too highly in dynasty start-up drafts, but nonetheless he is still one of the best young quarterbacks for dynasty leaguers to target.
7. RUSSELL WILSON, Seattle Seahawks | DOB: 11/29/1988 (24)
STO:As a third round pick in the 2012 draft Wilson wasn’t expected to start right away. He won the job in training camp however and made the most of it throughout the season. Despite attempting just 393 passes Wilson still threw for 26 touchdowns. He added another four on the ground while rushing for 489 yards. With the addition of Percy Harvin expect Wilson to throw the ball a put more this year and his overall production to rise.
LTO:The offseason addition of Percy Harvin bodes well for Wilson’s long term prospects. The Seahawks may still be a ground oriented offense in 2013 but expect them to lean more and more on Wilson’s abilities in the years to come. Given what he accomplished last year with so few pass attempts it stands to reason he’ll do even better the more he gets to operate with the ball in his hands.
8. PEYTON MANNING, Denver Broncos | DOB: 3/24/1976 (37)
STO:After missing all of 2011 due to a neck injury Manning returned last year on a new team as if he never missed a beat. His 4659 yards passing were the second highest total of his storied career – as were his 37 touchdown passes. With the addition of Wes Welker to his cast of wide receivers it’s well within reason to believe he’ll match or surpass those totals in 2013.
LTO: At 37-years of age Peyton is nearing the end of his career. He is signed through the 2016 season though and based upon last year’s production shows no signs of age slowing him down. He’s likely to play as long as his body allows. It’s possible he’d consider retirement though should the Broncos win a Super Bowl before his contract expires.
9. TOM BRADY, New England Patriots | DOB: 8/3/1977 (35)
STO: Brady routinely ranks amongst the best fantasy quarterbacks available, but the offseason changes and drama that have taken place in New England this year give fair reason for fans to wonder if the Pats will move to a ground oriented attack this season. Whether they do or don’t however it’s hard to imagine Brady being any lower than the eighth most productive fantasy quarterback in 2013.
LTO:Should Brady’s numbers take a significant dip this year it’s sure to drop his value in dynasty leagues given his age and the situation. Nonetheless he is very like to have another three to four years left in him of elite production. A healthy Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski will keep him amongst the upper tier at his position. It will also help a lot if rookie receivers Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce develop into worthwhile contributors to the offense.
10. ROBERT GRIFFIN III, Washington Redskins | DOB: 2/12/1990 (23)
STO:Griffin is attempting to return in time for the Redskins season opener after tearing his ACL in the wild card round of the playoffs. Based on all the reports that have come out so far it sounds as though he’ll be able to attain that goal. Nonetheless it wouldn’t be a surprise if Griffin got off to a slow start whenever it is he actually suits up in 2013.
LTO: Griffin is capable of outstanding levels of fantasy production, but the risk of injury will likely hound him throughout his career. For that reason I’d probably pass on him in favor of safer options at the position. He the most high-risk, high-reward option for a dynasty leaguer to own at the quarterback position.
Click this link to view: Dynasty QB Rankings 11 Thru 20