2017 Dynasty Spotlight: WR Alshon Jeffery


High School

Alshon Jeffery grew up in St. Matthews, SC and before completely dominating on the football field his first love was basketball and he led Calhoun County HS to 4 straight state titles and was also the SC HS basketball player of the year as a senior.  They actually only lost one game during his 4yr basketball career which included a 101 game winning streak.  By the end of his HS career he realized he had better odds of making it to the NFL as a 6’3″ WR with size, strength and hops than he did on the basketball court where everyone was tall.  

 

College Stats at South Carolina

Year School Conf Class Pos G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
*2009 South Carolina SEC FR WR 13 46 763 16.6 6 46 763 16.6 6
*2010 South Carolina SEC SO WR 14 88 1517 17.2 9 88 1517 17.2 9
*2011 South Carolina SEC JR WR 13 49 762 15.6 8 49 762 15.6 8
Career South Carolina 183 3042 16.6 23 183 3042 16.6 23

 

NFL Combine Metrics

40 Yard Dash: 4.48 seconds

 

NFL Career Stats

Jeffery has had a roller coaster career so far in the NFL from having a stellar 2nd and 3rd year averaging 87 catches, almost 1,300 yards and 8.5 TDs and being considered as a low-end WR1 in dynasty and then dealing with injuries over the last 2 years while averaging 53 catches, 814 yards and 3 TDs.

RECEIVING
Year Team G Rec Yds Avg Yds/G Lng TD 20+ 40+ 1st FUM
2016 Chicago Bears 12 52 821 15.8 68.4 54 2 12 2 41 0
2015 Chicago Bears 9 54 807 14.9 89.7 50 4 14 3 43 1
2014 Chicago Bears 16 85 1,133 13.3 70.8 74 10 17 3 60 0
2013 Chicago Bears 16 89 1,421 16.0 88.8 80T 7 20 7 62 3
2012 Chicago Bears 10 24 367 15.3 36.7 55 3 6 2 17 0
TOTAL 63 304 4,549 15.0 72.2 80 26 69 17 223 4

 

Forecast

Heading into the 2016 season there are a lot of unknowns with Jeffery as he signed a 1yr prove it deal with Philly which really surprised me.  When you really think about it though it makes sense after missing so many games and struggling the last 2 seasons.  Instead of signing a crappy long-term deal now he’s betting on himself to have a great season and earning a monster WR contract next off-season.  Those unknowns are new coaches, playing in a new system, catching from a new QB, is still an injury risk, playing with other WR talents like Jordan Matthews, DGB, Ertz, etc.  

Jeffery is still in his prime at 27 years old and his QB Wentz is looking to build off of a successful rookie season where he threw for almost 3,800 yards and 16 TDs. Wentz completed 379 passes out of 607 (62%).  With DGB and Agholor turning out to be a busts in the NFL Wentz could definitely use a WR1 on the outside with Matthews spending most of his time in the slot along with rumors floating around that he could be traded.  2017 should make for a solid pass-catching season with Alshon on the outside, Ertz and Matthews covering the middle of the field and DGB or Agholor sprinkled in with the leftovers.

Below are the ’16 receiving stats for the Philly WR’s.  DGB, Agholor, Huff accounted for 161 targets which is where Alshon will steal most of his production from as I believe Ertz (106) and Matthews (117) will remain relatively flat on targets moving forward.  I also think that the Eagles offense will have more attempts in ’17 unless they are able to draft a RB that will allow them to be more ball-controlled which I don’t see happening at this point.

I’m expecting Alshon to have around 150 targets which will lead the team and “could” equate to 90-catches on a 60% catch-rate.  I’m a betting man and I think he stays healthy in a make-or-break year as I’m sure he’s preparing hard this off-season to avoid those in-season injuries that have derailed his career the last 2 seasons.  I’m buying his stock this off-season and selling after the ’17 as I believe he earns a big long-term contract and slips with his health again.

2016 RECEIVING
NAME REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ YDS/G FUM FUML YAC 1DN
Zach Ertz 78 106 816 10.5 4 30 9 58.3 0 0 205 42
Jordan Matthews 73 117 804 11.0 3 54 13 57.4 1 0 258 38
Darren Sproles 52 71 427 8.2 2 73 2 28.5 0 0 412 19
Dorial Green-Beckham 36 74 392 10.9 2 26 5 26.1 0 0 147 25
Nelson Agholor 36 70 365 10.1 2 40 3 24.3 1 0 115 15
Trey Burton 37 60 327 8.8 1 32 1 21.8 0 0 120 20
Brent Celek 14 19 155 11.1 0 24 2 9.7 1 0 83 8
Paul Turner 9 14 126 14.0 0 41 1 31.5 0 0 44 6
Ryan Mathews 13 14 115 8.8 1 27 2 8.8 0 0 113 7
Bryce Treggs 3 12 80 26.7 0 58 1 8.9 0 0 16 3
Josh Huff 13 17 72 5.5 1 14 0 10.3 0 0 99 4
Wendell Smallwood 6 12 55 9.2 0 18 0 4.2 0 0 51 1
Kenjon Barner 5 11 42 8.4 0 15 0 3.2 0 0 49 3
Byron Marshall 3 5 10 3.3 0 7 0 3.3 0 0 13 1
Carson Wentz 1 1 7 7.0 0 7 0 0.4 0 0 14 0
Terrell Watson 1 1 5 5.0 0 5 0 5.0 0 0 0 0
Totals 380 609 3798 10.0 16 73 39 237.4 3 0 1739 192
Opponents 333 553 4039 12.1 25 80 57 252.4 4 2 1727 177