Written by Josh Haymond @JPesoFF
Buy, sell, and hold analyses can set apart the top dynasty owners from the average ones. But little can be gathered from the analysis without consideration of price. At what cost should I buy? At what cost should I sell?
A “buy” and a “hold” is essentially one in the same – if you don’t own the player, you should be trying to acquire him, and if you do own the player, don’t let him go at the market rate – either way, you want him on your roster. “Sell” is a category by itself – if you don’t own the player, you are running for the hills.
Now on to the goods.
Rueben Randle, WR, NYG, 6’2’’, 208 lb., 5/7/1991
After notching his first 100-yard game in week 1, the second-year LSU product is on pace for 44 catches, 648 yards and no touchdowns through the first four weeks of the season. With Hakeem Nicks on pace for just 48 receptions, 920 yards and no touchdowns, it appears more likely each week that the Giants will let Nicks go in free agency. In 2014 Randle will be primed for a huge increase in targets. At 0-4, the Giants are sure to increase the Randle’s work as the season wears on. Randle is a smooth receiver with great body control and deceptive quickness out of breaks. He is a big man that will eventually mold in to a monster red zone threat once the game slows down. The opportunity to buy may be available so long as both Nicks and Cruz stay healthy, but better to buy before an injury rather than scramble to buy afterward.
Conclusion – HOLD/BUY up to WR22
Michael Floyd, WR, ARI, 6’3’’, 220 lb., 11/27/1989
Despite receiving a slew of red zone targets, Michael Floyd has yet to reach pay dirt. Through four weeks, Floyd is on pace for 64 catches, 960 yards and no touchdowns. With Larry Fitzgerald drawing top coverage, expect Carson Palmer to continue to give his young horse more opportunities to make plays as the season wears on. With a wingspan that channels Vincent Jackson, Floyd has the ability to win 50/50 balls in his sleep. Adding elite long speed and reliable hands, Floyd will be a difficult player to stop. Floyd’s NFL sample size has not displayed his run-after-catch upside that will shine in time. Although the Cardinals are will continue having trouble moving the football, the buy of Floyd will be for 2014 lineups more than 2013 lineups.
Conclusion – HOLD/BUY up to WR8
Lamar Miller, RB, MIA, 5’11’’, 212 lb., 4/25/1991
After a week 1 that left much to be desired, Lamar Miller has posted three straight games above 60 yards rushing. Through four weeks, the Miami Hurricane is on pace for 784 rushing yards and 8 TDs, adding an average of 1 catch per game. Miller is crystal clearly the best back for the Dolphins, and will undoubtedly get a larger piece of the pie prospectively. Daniel Thomas is a far inferior option in every facet of the game. Miller pairs elite speed with above average vision for a player his age – he’s at his best when he feels a hole and attacks. He has the skill-set to be an every-down player, and will continue to gain the coaching staff’s trust on third downs. It might be 2014 before you have a rock solid RB2 on your roster, but you must buy immediately.
Conclusion – HOLD/BUY up to RB7
Colin Kaepernick, QB, SF, 6’4’’, 230 lb., 11/3/1987
Through four weeks, the bicep-kissing Colin Kaepernick has notched 68 completions on 117 attempts (58%) for 856 yards, a 5 TD to 4 INT ratio, and added just 26 rushes for 140 yards and no TD. Times like these are where you must look past the box scores – Kaepernick is a hyper-elite talent. While true that Kaepernick needs other playmakers to step up, it isn’t imperative that happens this season for his dynasty standing. He throws the football like few in the league can, and should add to his rushing total more than the currently projected 560 yards and no touchdowns. It seems silly to assume that Kaepernick has reached his ceiling at just 25 years old. Owners of a Drew Brees would be wise to sell out now, take the short-term hit, and enjoy the next 10 years of production from Kaepernick.
Conclusion – HOLD/BUY up to QB4
Frank Gore, RB, SF, 5’9’’, 217 lb., 5/14/1983
After a slow start to the season, Gore exploded against the division rival Rams in week 4 for 153 yards and a TD on 20 carries. On the year, Gore has 295 yards and 2 TD on 61 carries. Gore does not run like a 30 year old, but you cannot ignore his age. Luckily, Gore runs behind one of the better offensive lines in football. Gore has not been involved in the passing game as much as prior years, catching just 5 passes through 4 weeks. Gore owners in a position to sell should approach running back needy teams (aside – Gore was dealt in one of my leagues for Christine Michael, a beautiful sell of Gore). On the flipside, Gore is a decent low-cost option for teams needing that solid RB2 for the playoff push.
Conclusion – SELL at RB25; SHORT-TERM BUY at mid 2nd round value
Arian Foster, RB, HOU, 6’1’’, 229 lb., 8/24/1986
Arian Foster has dispelled the notion that Ben Tate would push him for a bigger piece of pie. This past week Foster racked up 33 touches for 171 yards and a TD to Tate’s 8 touches. On the season, Foster now has 76 attempts for 292 yards, adding 14 catches for 106 yards and 2 total TD. Foster is averaging just 3.8 yards-per-carry, but is an every-down player who should continue to stat well. Foster dynasty owners need to sell now, when there are 6-8 teams that want to buy, rather than later in the season when there might only be 4. Keeping Foster in to next off-season is dangerous when owners can sell out now for a higher in-season premium. You shouldn’t have trouble finding at least one suitor.
Conclusion – SELL at RB8
Alfred Morris, RB, WAS, 5’10’’, 219 lb., 12/12/1988
Through four weeks, Morris is on pace for nearly 1,200 yards and 8 TDs but only 12 receptions. It was rumored that Morris would be more active in the passing game this year, but the sharp play of Roy Helu has made it difficult Morris to remain on the field every down. Morris is a talented football player and will continue to be the bellcow running back for the Redskins, but unfortunately his fantasy production, especially in PPR leagues, does not justify the cost to acquire, or in this case the value you can obtain by selling. He’s not a world beating talent. Morris is a back-end RB1 at best – owners should sell at that back-end RB1 value before it’s too late.
Conclusion – SELL at RB12
Reggie Wayne, WR, IND, 6’0’’, 198 lb., 11/17/1978
With the lack of receiving threats outside, Reggie Wayne has continued to be a reliable target for future Hall of Famer Andrew Luck. Don’t expect that to end. Wayne is on pace for 88 catches, 1,200 yards and 8 TDs. While these numbers might dip some, Wayne should remain a rock solid WR3. Owners of Reggie Wayne should assess their rosters – if you need Wayne to be your WR3 for the playoff push, or you need to a WR3 for the playoff push, Wayne is a hold/buy. If you are either rebuilding, or can afford to lose Wayne and continue to win games, Wayne is an obvious sell.
Conclusion – SELL at WR40; SHORT-TERM BUY at mid 2nd round value