Buy-Sell Dice.1a

Dynasty Stock Watch 2015: Week 10

By Jeff Melbostad (@Jeff_DFW)

Welcome back to DFW’s own Dynasty Stock Watch in-season article. Each and every week we cover a number of players who fall into the buy, sell and hold categories based on current values, performance, and player trends. Player values are of the utmost importance to the fantasy football community. Striking on a player when his value is low or high makes all of the difference in the world. These concepts are especially true in dynasty leagues where player values stretch out over a much longer period of time. So while we’ll focus on some immediate news and production remember that in dynasty we can’t overreact. One game (or even a few games) a career does not make, but it does definitely give us an idea of what to expect.

Let’s take a look at my selections:

Buy Low

Dion Lewis RB NEP – Obviously we all know that Dion Lewis suffered a torn ACL in week 9 and is lost for the season.  That’s precisely why I’m advocating that you purchase him… at a discount.  After coming out of nowhere this offseason, Lewis has been a main attraction in that New England offense and has been averaging just over 17 points per game in DFW48 scoring.  He’s a bit smallish but a dynamic playmaker who will remind some of us older dynasty owners of Kevin Faulk, but better.  He looked so good through 4 games that New England gave him a two year extension which ensures his future value will be fantastic.  That’s why you must attempt to buy him now.  A player who just landed on IR will most definitely carry less value than he did.  Even if you have to give up someone who is producing this season I think Lewis is worth the wait.  He’s a dynamic, pass catching PPR monster who will be a consistently high scorer in that offense.  See what it’ll take to secure his future services in your league.

DeVante Parker WR MIA & Breshad Perriman WR BAL – For two rookies who went as likely mid 1st round picks a whopping 4 catches for 49 yards between them is more than a little disappointing.  Still, both guys haven’t been the picture of health in their first crack at the NFL.  Don’t let injury fool you, these two are extremely talented wideouts.  For those of us who didn’t land these guys in rookie drafts things have unfolded just as we’d like.  You should be able to net them at a solid discount.  I’ve seen the likes of Parker being moved for has been Michael Crabtree and the still injured Perriman will surely go for less.  Both guys are in excellent situations and primed for a large chunk of the receiving pie once they start.  Now is the time to get on board.

Jordy Nelson WR GBP – It’s been a while since Jordy went down for the year so why the sudden “buy” tag now?  Well, it’s that time of year when you should have a pretty solid idea of your playoff picture.  With only 4 (plus or minus) weeks left depending on your league schedule you likely know whether you’ve got a shot at that title or not.  If you don’t then next year is all you have in dynasty.  Jordy is one of the best fantasy WRs in the game namely because of the QB throwing him the ball.  If you’re out of the running then the shark move is to send a currently over producing player like Allen Hurns or Travis Benjamin and some additional picks/players for one of the top WRs in football.  Sure Jordy will be 31 years old next season and his value will trend downward due to age at some point, but the guy scored as the 13th and 3rd best WR respectively in the past two seasons.  He’ll win you games next year so trade this year for next if you’re in the right situation.

Sell High

DeAngelo Williams RB PIT – I know you’re smart enough that you don’t need me to tell you this, but at this stage in his career Deangelo is purely a product of LeVeon Bell injuries.  Without that opportunity he’s just another 32 year old RB who’s on his way out of the league.  Williams has averaged a staggering 29.3 fantasy points in DFW48 scoring in the 3 games that Bell has missed so far in 2015.  That’s worth something to somebody.  It’s likely worth a lot to someone shooting for the 2015 title.  Move him now, move him for a lot and you’ve just gotten yourself a nice future chess piece for a player with no future.  The one caveat to my advice (I sense the collective sigh here) is that if he’s the one piece that will win you the title you hold this guy.  He is producing at a higher level than anyone thought possible and that’s the kind of thing that wins a contender a championship.

James Jones WR GBP – It seems a bit odd for me to advise selling James Jones “high” after his worst two weeks of the season but it’s time to move on.  He was a waiver wire wonder early in the year, but with the recent offensive struggles the Pack have been going through and the return of Davante Adams to the lineup the writing is on the wall for Jones.  Jones impressed everyone by putting up solid WR2 numbers through 7 weeks of the season but he was a WR that was nearly without a job early in the preseason preseason.  His career is far closer to being over than it is to being a mainstay in the Packers starting rotation.  Move him now for whatever you can get and consider it a “sell high”.  You’ll be happy you did once Devante Adams starts showing his true potential.

Delanie Walker TE TEN – Damn Delanie!  In week 9 Walker caught 7 of his 8 targets for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He’s been a pretty dependable and underrated TE for a while now but the wow factor just hasn’t been there.  Now it has.  If this latest performance opens the eyes of some owners in your league and they look a bit closer at the stats that have made him a top 10 TE the past two seasons then it’s time to sell.  You can likely net a draft pick that you can use at a higher impact position or a higher upside TE at this point.  His current TE7 ranking in 2015 is solid, but at age 31 he’ll never be a tope tier guy.  Trade him for a chance at a guy who could be.

Hold Steady

Willie Snead WR NOS – Besides having a cool name, Willie Snead has become a legitimate option for eventual hall of fame QB Drew Brees.  Brandin Cooks is only 22 years old and leads the team in both targets and receptions.  This should surprise no one.  Cooks is a household fantasy name and a fantastic player to own.  The fact that Snead has a mere 9 fewer targets and 4 less catches than his teammate should surprise a few.  He’s just one year older and has fantastic upside himself.  Don’t sell Snead to folks looking to take advantage of you lack of awareness.  He’s a keeper so don’t go selling him for anything less than WR2 dynasty value.

Tavon Austin WR STL – The 24 year old Austin is a 3rd year breakout candidate.  There’s no question that the Rams have recognized his playmaking potential.  He and Todd Gurley are really the only two things a defense need be concerned with at this point.  His 300 receiving yards, 200 rushing yards and 6 total touchdowns combine to make him a pretty solid WR3 in fantasy football.  Is that the kind of player that will win you a championship?  Not at this point, but he’s a dual threat, Percy Harvin in his infinitesimal prime type of player.  I think you have to wait Austin out because his future is too bright to pass up.  Sure there’s a chance he flames out in the same way Harvin or other gadget type players have, but he’s worth the risk at this point and he’s got none of the head-case type tendencies of his predecessors.  I like what I see from this kid and I’ll be patient if you will.

Eddie Lacy RB GBP – The consensus dynasty and redraft top 5 RB is currently tied with Antonio Andrews for the 50th best RB in DFW48 fantasy scoring.  He’s been dealing with nagging injuries, has been purportedly overweight and has been outperformed by fellow RB James Starks.  Buyers will be knocking at your door with these facts.  Don’t be fooled by the rough 2015 Lacy has put up or by the owners looking to take advantage.  We’re looking long term here at DFW.  The offensive woes the Packers are going through, the nagging injuries Lacy has been experiencing and the weird glasses he’s wearing in his profile shouldn’t distract you from his actual value.  His finish as RB6 and RB7 the past two years in fantasy points don’t lie.  He’s a legitimately dominant fantasy back.  Don’t think of selling him for anything less, regardless of your 2015 standing.

There you have it folks. These are just a few guys that, in my opinion, you should be looking at this week and deciding what to do with them. Whether you have them on your roster or are thinking about acquiring someone the buy low and sell high philosophy is a powerful one. And one you should always look to take advantage of.  Obviously the final decision on these players (and others) is up to you. If you have thoughts on these guys or opinions that differ

I’d love to hear them. Hit us up in the DFW forums or post a comment and I’ll respond in kind. Differing opinions is what makes fantasy football fun after all.