Buy-Sell Dice.1a

Dynasty Stock Watch 2015: Week 12

By Jeff Melbostad (@Jeff_DFW)

Welcome back to DFW’s own Dynasty Stock Watch in-season article. Each and every week we cover a number of players who fall into the buy, sell and hold categories based on current values, performance, and player trends. Player values are of the utmost importance to the fantasy football community. Striking on a player when his value is low or high makes all of the difference in the world. These concepts are especially true in dynasty leagues where player values stretch out over a much longer period of time. So while we’ll focus on some immediate news and production remember that in dynasty we can’t overreact. One game (or even a few games) a career does not make, but it does definitely give us an idea of what to expect.

Let’s take a look at my selections:

Buy Low

Alshon Jeffery WR CHI – Jeffery has appeared in just 5 games this season and sat out again last week.  It’s easy for people to dismiss, or at least devalue, a player like this who isn’t producing well this season while others are.  While other owners in your league are focusing on Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry have a go at Jeffery and net yourself a WR who is better than all three for a cheaper price.  Sure Jeffery doesn’t rate when looking at the top WR’s in your league by fantasy points, but if you look a bit closer at average fantasy points per game he rates as the 4th best wideout in the league (DFW48 scoring).  He’s a legit WR1 who’s just been dinged so welcome him to your team while those seeking immediate production pass.

Andrew Luck QB IND – For a guy who entered 2015 as the consensus #1 dynasty QB, sitting outside the top 20 after 11 weeks is more than a little disappointing.  Sure the young QB has only played in 7 of the 10 games the Colts have played this season, but he’s still barely a QB1 in points per game.  All of this adds up to one thing.  You can obtain the unobtainable.  Luck is a 26 year old superstar who could anchor your dynasty team for the next 10+ years comfortably.  Having a player of his caliber (regardless of recent struggles) allows you to eliminate the need to worry about the QB position and allows you to focus on one less thing.  Owners looking to move him right now should be inundated with offers.  Just make sure you get him at the below market price his current situation and production would demand.

Matt Forte RB CHI – I like Matt Forte a lot.  He’s a superstar RB capable of doing it all for whatever team he plays for.  That doesn’t change the fact that he’s turning 30 in a few weeks and is in the final year of his contract with a Bears team that looks likely to move on.  Situational uncertainty can cause fear and avoidance.  Age can cause concern and dismissal.  A replacement performing at a high level (Jeremy Langford) can cause all out panic.  Add his recent injury into the mix and you have a bunch of owners looking to bail on Forte as soon as possible.  I’d recommend doing just the opposite.  The past two seasons Forte finished as the #1 and #2 RB in DFW48 PPR scoring respectively.  Other than his latest injury, he’s shown no signs of slowing down.  All of those concerns I listed earlier mean you have to get him at a significant discount though.  Do that, and you’ll have a guy that can be your RB1 for the next couple years regardless where he goes.  He’s too talented and too well rounded not to.

Sell High

Eddie Lacy RB GBP – I know I advised holding Lacy back in week 10, but he has me legitimately concerned.  Changing one’s mind may, on the surface, seem like flip flopping but with situations changing quickly in the NFL, a smart owner changes his or her opinion of players to match.  In the ever fluid stock market of fantasy football the fact that Lacy had a solid 100 yard performance versus the Vikings last week should instill confidence in those who were worried as well.  This means you can possibly sell for near his original value with league mates dismissing what I’m starting to feel are telling signs. Weight issues, inconsistency and nagging injury are things that start to add up and stick with a guy.  Plus he’s a dreaded Alabama RB.  I’m moving on from Lacy and think others should too.  You just need to make sure you get good value for him and I think you should be able to after him once again showing signs of life.

Doug Martin RB TBB – After a ridiculous 235 yard rushing performance on Sunday was there any doubt you’d see Martin in the sell high category?  Martin currently ranks 2nd among all RBs in yardage and is a top 5 RB in DFW48 scoring.  There’s no doubt that the 26 year old bounced back after the Bucs failed to pick up his 5th year options (something I’m sure they’re regretting).  Still, we’ve seen DMart look fantastic in the past and we’ve also seen him regress and be inconsistent.  I’m just not sure exactly what to expect from him on a regular basis and that scares me.  That and the fact that we don’t know if he’ll be in the same offense next season since he’s a free agent this offseason make me feel fine about selling him.  You should be able to get top 10 RB prices and I just don’t think that Martin is a consistent top 10 performer go forward for his career.  Plus that 235 performance is an easy thing to flaunt.

Gary Barnidge TE CLE – Barnidge currently trails only the mighty Rob Gronkowski in fantasy scoring.  He averages 16+ points per game and only has 3 games where he scored less than 18 points in PPR scoring.  That’s some impressive consistency for a guy who came out of nowhere in 2015.  Barnidge has shown he can produce regardless who is slinging him the ball as well.  He’s a guy that can make a difference for a competing team this season, so why am I advising a sell?  Well, he’s a 30 year old player who came out of nowhere and he plays for the Browns.  We’ve seen a large number of flashes in the pan at the TE position but very few guys have real staying power.  I’m not certain Barnidge does.  Even if I’m wrong, he plays a position that just doesn’t typically produce at the level he is producing.  I’m looking to move the 2nd best TE in the league right now for a solid player at a different position.  Or for a high draft pick where you can net a RB or WR in the draft.  

Hold Steady

Dion Lewis RB NEP, Justin Forsett RB BAL, LeVeon Bell RB PIT – This week under hold steady we feature an IR SPECIAL!  Everyone is expecting to buy these guys at deep discounts right now because they’re just not going to play again in 2015.  Unless you’re desperate for help to make the push for a title this season, don’t make the mistake of falling into that trap.  No doubt you’ve already received a number of offers for these RBs if you own them, but I’m advising you hold strong.  All three of these guys are dual threats that are still in the future plans of their respective teams.  Each carries a different value because of age, talent and situation, but they all have one thing in common.  If you try to move them you won’t get fair value.  Something to always avoid in fantasy football.

Jeremy Langford RB CHI, Thomas Rawls RB SEA – These two rookies look like the real deal replacements for two aging stud RBs in Matt Forte and Marshawn Lynch.  Rawls is fresh off a 200+ yard performance and looks like Beastmode v2.0.  Langford is no slouch himself, averaging 25 PPR fantasy points per game in Forte’s absence.  Both guys have gotten a shot and proven themselves capable.  Both guys have a bright future and will develop into workhorses for their respective, run first teams.  Don’t let someone swindle you out of them before that happens because their value WILL go up.

There you have it folks. These are just a few guys that, in my opinion, you should be looking at this week and deciding what to do with them. Whether you have them on your roster or are thinking about acquiring someone the buy low and sell high philosophy is a powerful one. And one you should always look to take advantage of.  Obviously the final decision on these players (and others) is up to you. If you have thoughts on these guys or opinions that differ

I’d love to hear them. Hit us up in the DFW forums or post a comment and I’ll respond in kind. Differing opinions is what makes fantasy football fun after all.