Dynasty Stock Watch 2015: Week 13
By Jay Myers (@Dynasty_DFW)
Welcome back to DFW’s own Dynasty Stock Watch in-season article. Each and every week we cover a number of players who fall into the buy, sell and hold categories based on current values, performance, and player trends. Player values are of the utmost importance to the fantasy football community. Striking on a player when his value is low or high makes all of the difference in the world. These concepts are especially true in dynasty leagues where player values stretch out over a much longer period of time. So while we’ll focus on some immediate news and production remember that in dynasty we can’t overreact. One game (or even a few games) a career does not make, but it does definitely give us an idea of what to expect.
Lots of trade deadlines have come and gone, but some are this week or next. So, let’s take a look at my selections:
Todd Gurley RB STL – If you wanted an opportunity to pry away Gurley from his owners then this is your chance. You will likely have to pay a high price, but it’s probably 10 cents cheaper on the dollar right now than it was a few weeks ago when he was on a tear. His struggles of late open a small window of opportunity, take a swing at it to see what his price-tag is.
TJ Yeldon RB JAX – He’s been good this season, but I still think he has lots of room to grow into a perennial top-10 RB for years to come. He’s in a great up and coming offense with a solid QB, 2 good WRs and a solid TE which will allow him to be more productive than other similar RBs in worse situations. He may only be an RB2 the rest of the way this season, but watch out next season as those RB1 games will come!
Dorial Green-Beckham, DeVante Parker WR MIA, Breshad Perriman WR BALT, Kevin White WR CHI and Nelson Agholor WR PHI – There were a lot of expectations for this group of WRs, but all five have disappointed this season due to injuries (Parker, Perriman, White), lack of snaps/targets (DGB) and poor QB play (Agholor). However, this is dynasty so we should have patience for rookies who struggle year 1, but lucky for us that some owners hit the panic button far too quickly. All five of these WRs still have the same upside that they came into the season with, they just need to stay healthy and grow and refine their route running and knowledge of their playbooks which should happen with this off-season.
Tom Brady QB NE – Injuries galore in NE of late between Deon Lewis, Edelman, Amendola and now Gronk. Most folks have been holding onto Tom for a playoff run, but with the lack of weapons a lot of owners may be left feeling a bit disappointed by his production in the coming weeks. If your trade deadline hasn’t passed I’d look at moving him for slightly less immediate production but more longevity as a future QB1 with a possible draft pick or upgrade at another position.
Jon Stewart RB CAR – This is one of the more healthy and productive seasons of JStew’s career, but he’s getting up there in age in terms of RBs. Age and durability concerns will more than likely lead Carolina to draft a RB as a priority for a future RBBC situation which will leave his owners frustrated post-2015 season. With all of the injuries this season most of his owners likely need his production, but if you can move him I would.
Darren McFadden RB DAL – See Jon Stewart, same situation and Dallas will draft or sign a priority FA RB like Doug Martin.
Calvin Johnson WR DET – The fear of post-30 is setting in for owners across all leagues I’m in. After his 3-TD game this is the best and last great chance to move him for top dollar before he goes down the road of no return similar to Andre Johnson and Marshall in recent years. Those players were very productive post-30 which will be the case for Megatron, but their values tanked pretty quick compared to what you could’ve gotten at 29 and younger. Calvin has been good this year, but there are definite signs of him slowing down if you actually sit down and watch him play.
Javorius Allen RB BAL – In the last two games Allen has scored 16.5 and 18.4 points post-Forsett season-ending injury. Some might be tempted to sell him for a first to a playoff contender since he’s still relatively unproven, but he’s got the rest of the season to audition for the starting gig for next season even with Forsett coming back from a broken arm. Allen has flashed and I think he will be the focal point of the offense down the stretch due to all of the injuries, so odds are he’ll be successful and you should be able to land a bigger payday in the off-season if you really want to move him.
David Johnson RB AZ – Finally gets the opportunity to be the guy which many of us here at DFW were expecting to see at some point this season. CJ?K was having a nice little year, but Johnson has the ability to be a top-5 RB the rest of the way which will only increase his stock price by the end of the season. He is a big fast guy who can run between the tackles, has good agility and can catch like a WR. He’ll be very dynamic and Ariens will put him in situations to be highly effective. Don’t sell for a late first which is the typical offer I’ve been getting in my leagues.
Donte Moncrief WR IND – Prior to his last game he was in a slight funk due to QB play, but he finally got it going with Hass chucking him the pigskin. He and Hilton are still the future of this receiving core and I still believe in Luck as a top-3 QB asset. He’s currently ranked 26th in PPR format averaging 13 per game with 4 games in single digits. Not too shabby, but I’m expecting WR2 production in ’16 in a major 3rd year breakout.
There you have it folks. These are just a few guys that, in my opinion, you should be looking at this week and deciding what to do with them. Whether you have them on your roster or are thinking about acquiring someone the buy low and sell high philosophy is a powerful one. And one you should always look to take advantage of. Obviously the final decision on these players (and others) is up to you. If you have thoughts on these guys or opinions that differ
I’d love to hear them. Hit us up in the DFW forums or post a comment and I’ll respond in kind. Differing opinions is what makes fantasy football fun after all.