Buy-Sell Dice.1a


Dynasty Stock Watch 2015: Week 2


By Jeff Melbostad (@Jeff_DFW)

Welcome back to DFW’s own Dynasty Stock Watch in-season article. Each and every week we cover a number of players who fall into the buy, sell and hold categories based on current values, performance, and player trends. Player values are of the utmost importance to the fantasy football community. Striking on a player when his value is low or high makes all of the difference in the world. These concepts are especially true in dynasty leagues where player values stretch out over a much longer period of time. So while we’ll focus on some immediate news and production remember that in dynasty we can’t overreact. One game (or even a few games) a career does not make, but it does definitely give us an idea of what to expect.

Let’s take a look at my selections:

 

Buy Low

Tyrod Taylor QB BUF – Taylor looked very good this weekend and seems to have the full endorsement of both coaches and teammates. He threw for 195 yards and a touchdown while adding 41 yards on the ground. His dual threat rushing ability is what makes him even more intriguing since it raises his potential floor each week with guaranteed yardage. For me, at least, he passed the eye test on Sunday and I think now is the time to try and acquire the QB. There’s plenty of talent on this offense (McCoy, Watkins, Harvin) so if he secures the long term starting gig he can be a fine QB2. The best part about Tyrod is he still should come relatively cheap (potentially even on some waiver wires) so make sure you check on him in your league.

Matt Forte RB CHI – Age be damned, Matt Forte IS the Chicago Bears offense. He managed to rack up 166 total yards and a touchdown against the Packers this week. With Jay Cutler on relatively thin ice the only steadying force on this team will be Forte. You may scoff at his age (turns 30 in December) but he’s shown no signs of slowing down and is a dual threat. Even if you only get a couple more seasons out of him he’s a guaranteed top 5 guy at the RB position in my opinion. His price will still be high, but you may get the old age discount especially if he resides on a team who won’t compete this year in your league. Future picks (likely a first) for an upgrade to Forte is a dream trade scenario on my dynasty squads.

Sammy Watkins WR BUF – The dreaded goose egg is always a tough thing to stomach for fantasy owners. Even worse, Watkins was only targeted once on the day. I’m not saying that Watkins will bounce back and be an every week must start this season but he’ll assuredly improve on 0 catches and he’s a very talented player. Even if he’s unreliable all year he’s a great buy in dynasty leagues right now because situations change quickly in the NFL, but talent stays constant. The low-volume passing attack he’s currently in won’t always be the case and if Taylor improves like I think he will then change could come quicker than many think. Explore a trade with the Watkins owner in your league and just maybe the price will surprise you, in a good way.

Greg Olsen TE CAR – Olsen was limited to 1 catch for 11 yards in week 1 which is FAR from what fantasy owners were expecting from him. Still, don’t let the bad day fool you, he’s a top tier TE1 in this offense. The fact that he’s the best (some say only) reliable pass catcher on the squad right now is both a good and bad thing. He’ll get his fair share of work and targets but also be the focal point of defenses each and every week. Carolina will find ways to get him the ball and he’ll rebound in a big way. He’s a definite buy after a down first week.

 

Sell High

James Jones WR GBP – Take advantage of the massive James Jones hype right now. After it looked like the man’s career might be over he lands in the best possible scenario with his old team and Aaron Rodgers at the helm. After a 2 touchdown day he has people VERY excited about his prospects for the year. Still, level headed people know that Cobb and Adams are the main guys in this Green Bay offense. Adams was actually the most targeted packer with 8 targets and while I expect Cobb to secure the lead role going forward, this shows that Adams is definitely the #2 option. Jones is definitely a solid NFL WR3 and will flash occasionally in fantasy football with touchdowns, but is still the 3rd or 4th option on the team and you could likely net something nice for him in trade right now. Acquiring future picks or a player in a more stable position is the shark move. Hell, he might even be on your league’s wavier wire so pick him up and move him if he is.

Percy Harvin WR BUF – Harvin had a wonderful 51 yard TD catch this week and put up solid numbers en route to a 5/79/1 stat line. That said, Harvin is a gadget player who will occasionally and inconsistently flash like he did this week. Overall production should be unreliable though. He’s a great own in a best ball type format but in traditional leagues I’d look to move him after a solid week 1. Some may see his solid game as good rapport with the new QB, but I think it’s just a talented gadget player getting his occasional big play.

Jordan Reed TE WAS – Reed owners got just what they were looking for in week 1 after he caught 7 passes for 63 yards and a touchdown. Owners already know that this man has talent but it’s just a matter of time before injuries derail his season again. The young TE hasn’t managed to have an entirely healthy season once in his career and it’s hard to bank on him doing it for the first time in 2015. If you have another dependable option Reed can be a nice guy to own since he should put up solid numbers when healthy. That said, if you have another dependable option my advice would be to trade Reed BEFORE he gets hurt and net yourself something solid in return.

 

Hold Steady

Lamar Miller RB MIA – A dismal 53 rushing yards from your starting RB is not what fantasy owners are looking for. Miller had plenty of promise entering 2015 after an excellent season in 2014. At the young age of 24 he was definitely trending up and in the right direction. Well, after a tough week 1 all of that still holds true so don’t you dare panic. He’s the workhorse in this offense even if his being limited to 13 carries on Sunday seems to suggest otherwise. The good news is his backup Damien Williams only touched the ball twice so Miller is entrenched as the bell cow. He’ll get his in 2015 and into the future. Don’t give up on him now.

Travis Kelce TE KCC – This type of performance (6 catches, 106 yards, 2 touchdowns) is what dynasty owners have been expecting from a highly promising Kelce. I fully expect that it will continue and people will be hot after him in the trade market. Keep him on your squad unless you get a kings ransom because he’s the real deal and a perfect target for Alex Smith, the check-down master. Ride him as your TE1 going forward.

Andre Johnson WR IND – Managing just 4 catches for 41 yards was a bit disappointing for AJ owners, but don’t get too discouraged. He’s a perfect fit for this high powered passing offense and will get his in terms of catches and touchdowns. Just because he’s 34 years old doesn’t mean he’s no longer beastly. AJ had 11 targets on the day and that’s tied for 5th most among WRs in week 1. He should be reliable in this offense and because of age concerns won’t likely net you much in return if you tried to trade him. Keep him on your squad and enjoy the benefits as he, and the entire Indy offense really, hits their stride.

 

There you have it folks. These are just a few guys that, in my opinion, you should be looking at this week and deciding what to do with them. Whether you have them on your roster or are thinking about acquiring someone the buy low and sell high philosophy is a powerful one. And one you should always look to take advantage of.  Obviously the final decision on these players (and others) is up to you. If you have thoughts on these guys or opinions that differ

I’d love to hear them. Hit us up in the DFW forums or post a comment and I’ll respond in kind. Differing opinions is what makes fantasy football fun after all.