Dynasty Stock Watch 2015: Week 3
By Jay Myers (@Dynasty_DFW)
Welcome back to DFW’s own Dynasty Stock Watch in-season article. Each and every week we cover a number of players who fall into the buy, sell and hold categories based on current values, performance, and player trends. Player values are of the utmost importance to the fantasy football community. Striking on a player when his value is low or high makes all of the difference in the world. These concepts are especially true in dynasty leagues where player values stretch out over a much longer period of time. So while we’ll focus on some immediate news and production remember that in dynasty we can’t overreact. One game (or even a few games) a career does not make, but it does definitely give us an idea of what to expect.
Let’s take a look at my selections:
Kind of a disappointment so far, but TJ Yeldon definitely will get better and is going to get the chance and work load to prove it. While he didn’t explode vs Miami’s stout defense he did get 25 carries and caught 3 balls which is what you want to see from your RB2. Now Denard Robinson has a knee injury and he gets the Patriots, Colts, Bucs and Texans over the next 4 weeks who are ranked 27th, 22nd, 19th and 25th vs the run through the first 2 weeks. I think the arrow will start to be pointing up for him during this 4-game stretch.
What in the world is going on with Norv Turner’s offense in MN??? It is weird not seeing his offense stretch the ball downfield vertically and it’s especially interesting when they have Charles Johnson and Mike Wallace. It’s coming, don’t worry. It may not be this week (SD) or next vs Denver and their #1 ranked defense vs the pass, but after their bye the schedule gets easier and hopefully Bridgewater can build up his confidence and start taking more chances instead of trying to prove to the world that he can be a 70% completion type of guy which he previously stated was a goal this season. If you can get him on the cheap and just be patient you’ll definitely get a good ROI.
Talk about panic city here, Jimmy Graham had 1 catch on Sunday and it’s like he’s got the plague. While I have tried to move him laterally myself in deals where I get a slight upgrade elsewhere no one wants to touch him. There will be brighter days for Graham who has had to block a bit more than he’d like. Overall I just think the whole team is in a funk with the safety Kam Chancellor situation looming over everyone’s head, once they come out of it they’ll be rolling and Graham will too. Grab him now on the cheap if you can!
While things look rough for Sam Bradford and the Philly offense I’d take a gamble on things turning around and especially if I needed a QB. He looks rushed at times and is fragile but things really can’t get much worse unless he tears his ACL again which is always a strong possibility. There were so many moving parts this off-season between the lost of Maclin, the additions of Bradford, Murray, Matthews and the drafting of Agholor. Why wouldn’t we expect that it would take some time to gel in the regular season?!? Preseason is just that, playing vanilla defenses and not truly testing the offense. Give it time and see if you can get Bradford for a low-end QB2 like Alex Smith and a 3rd.
What happens when you play two horrible defenses in week 1 and 2 (NO and Chi)? Well, we just saw Carson Palmer torch them both for a total of 7 TDs between the two games. While I like him to continue a pretty solid pace odds are he is more than likely your backup and expendable. There are teams out there that are struggling at QB with the Romo injury, Peyton questions, Cam’s lack of quality options, etc. I’d take this moment to try and pedal him for a 2nd rounder or for a slight upgrade at another position. Scan the rosters in your league looking for that team that is in need of an injection of points at the QB position and see if there is anything reasonable that you can get in return.
The Saints offense just hasn’t looked right, Brees is banged up and CJ Spiller is only going to get more and more work as his knee gets healthier. I would push really hard to sell Mark Ingram this week after 2 decent weeks, I just don’t see his situation getting much better than it has been. Maybe the offense picks up and they start scoring more, but maybe CJ Spiller gobbles up all the receptions out of the backfield. Just too much risk to not sell right now if you can. I’d move him for Yeldon plus something or add something small and go after Jamaal Charles.
The Bronco’s passing game showed signs of life on Thursday and Emmanuel Sanders and DT were the biggest recipients. Well, there is still a power struggle between Kubiak and Peyton on how the offense will be run. That’s issue #1, but issue #2 is that Sanders hasn’t proven that he can be an elite option without Peyton throwing him the football. This should be Peyton’s last season so I would strike while the iron is hot with Sanders. Any smart dynasty mind knows all this, but we are also all greedy and want to win championships. If he’s the missing piece they will fork up some dough for him. The key is you have to be brutally honest about the assessment of your team and whether you’re a true contender or pretender. If you’re not a top-4 team I’d sell to the highest bidder.
After a week where Larry Fitzgerald caught 3 touchdowns why wouldn’t he be a sell-high right? Well, most will see this one coming a mile away, but you still have to try. He’s aging with a QB who is very injury-prone, we saw what happened last year once Palmer tore his ACL. Some might have a whole at WR they want to plug, take advantage if you can.
Seller beware, I’d personally be selling Torrey Smith. While it’s more than likely the right move, there isn’t enough sample size between he and Kaep to ensure that you aren’t selling a guy who could keep putting up solid numbers. You could regret it, but odds are that you won’t.
Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady are the #1 and #2 QB’s after two weeks and while it may be pretty tempting to sell Big Ben to upgrade another position I just don’t see the advantage with Martavis Bryant coming back in week 5. His numbers could actually get better. Don’t worry about Tom’s age and trying to cash out while there’s still time, just ride the wave for the next 2-3 years and then go fishing for a QB. Brady is on a mission to destroy the league after Goodell tried to tarnish his legacy. Both are locks to finish as top-5 QBs this season if not 1 and 2 like they are right now.
Bill is at it again in NE, everyone thought that Blount was going to be the man this year although there were a fair share of skeptics. He just doesn’t like Fantasy Football and he will do anything in his power to mess with our crowd. However, the one thing that is constant is that the receiving back in his offense usually gets enough work to be a low-end #2 or flex guy. In the forums I’ve seen folks asking if they should move Dion Lewis for a 2nd. Definitely worth considering if he is at the back-end of a crowded backfield on your, but if you need his production I’d hold and use him for a title run this season. He has looked electric through two weeks and he’s the same size (5’8″ and 195 lbs) as last year’s breakout star Justin Forsett so there is hope that he could capture a full load and hold up during the season which is the concern of most.
Some folks might be tempted to sell-high on Jordan Matthews due to questions about the QB situation in Philly or a few drops or the eventual emergence of Agholor, but I wouldn’t be too worried if I were you. He’s proven that he can play at this level and even if they move to Sanchez I think his production will be similar. Will he continue this pace next season and beyond, I don’t think there is any reason to think he won’t as the team will have too many other holes to fill to worry about drafting WR high in the draft.
On Sunday Allen Robinson did what many of us here at DFW thought he would do this season, he exploded in the first half and proved that his upside is gigantic. Don’t get sneaky thinking that now is the time to sell, back away from the ledge. Will he score two TDs every week, no way. But, he’s the #1 target in an offense starving for someone to be that target-monster until JT gets back. Even the I don’t expect JT to hurt his numbers, he’ll have more of an effect on Hurns in my opinion. Ride the wave and let the good times roll.
Today I got an offer of R.Cobb, Kelce and Martavis Bryant for my Julio Jones. Some might instantly accept but I just couldn’t do it. While fair it may be I just couldn’t stand losing my #1 rated dynasty player who has been beasting through the first 2 weeks. He is the target-hog in ATL’s offense where Roddy is declining. Kyle Shanahan has proven that he will just feed his X receiver all day long, recent examples are AJ and Garcon in his breakout year two years ago. Only an injury can stop him from having one of the best WR seasons of all-time.
In week 1 Tyler Eifert exploded and week two he came back down to earth a bit. He obviously won’t put up 2 TDs every week so it was to be expected, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have a bunch of other great games where he puts up 5-7 catches for 100 yards and a score. Barring health he is a top-4 TE moving forward in dynasty and should command a 1st round pick to even think about moving him.
There you have it folks. These are just a few guys that, in my opinion, you should be looking at this week and deciding what to do with them. Whether you have them on your roster or are thinking about acquiring someone the buy low and sell high philosophy is a powerful one. And one you should always look to take advantage of. Obviously the final decision on these players (and others) is up to you. If you have thoughts on these guys or opinions that differ
I’d love to hear them. Hit us up in the DFW forums or post a comment and I’ll respond in kind. Differing opinions is what makes fantasy football fun after all.