Buy-Sell Dice.1a

Dynasty Stock Watch 2015: Week 4

By Jeff Melbostad (@Jeff_DFW)

Welcome back to DFW’s own Dynasty Stock Watch in-season article. Each and every week we cover a number of players who fall into the buy, sell and hold categories based on current values, performance, and player trends. Player values are of the utmost importance to the fantasy football community. Striking on a player when his value is low or high makes all of the difference in the world. These concepts are especially true in dynasty leagues where player values stretch out over a much longer period of time. So while we’ll focus on some immediate news and production remember that in dynasty we can’t overreact. One game (or even a few games) a career does not make, but it does definitely give us an idea of what to expect.

Let’s take a look at my selections:

Buy Low

Tevin Coleman RB ATL – As I’m writing this it looks as if 2nd year man Devonta Freeman has passed Coleman as the #1 RB on the Falcons depth chart.  Don’t let that fool you.  Whether it’s tomorrow, next week or next year this is Coleman’s job for the taking.  Coleman obviously did enough as a rookie in training camp to win the starting job and, as such, I’d say the team wants him to shine.  He’ll get plenty of chances and certainly has more athleticism and pedigree than Freeman.  A Coleman injury and a big game by Freeman in his absence does nothing to change that.  Find the Coleman owner in your league who is worried about this depth chart move and exploit him.  He’s the better RB.

Arian Foster RB HOU – You may be questioning my judgement for recommending you buy an injury prone, 29 year old RB in dynasty, but hear me out.  Foster will return soon and to a team that sorely needs his playmaking ability.  They will ride him and they will ride him hard, which is the best thing a fantasy owner could hear.  His age and injury history only make his price lower than it will be once he starts putting up RB1 numbers again.  This may be your last shot at landing him before he starts reminding fantasy owners why he’s a top tier player at his position.  Many dynasty owners exaggerate the importance of youth and landing a back who has averaged 121 total yards and 1.2 TDs per game over the past 5 NFL seasons will help your squad.

C.J. Anderson RB DEN – Currently ranked as RB55 in my favorite PPR dynasty league, Anderson is quite possibly the most disappointing fantasy player yet this season.  Averaging just 2.3 yards per carry and 34 yards per game is not what owners had in mind for a guy who as thought to be a RB1.  Still, it’s very early and Anderson hasn’t been fully healthy.  I’ll admit that there is some concern that he just isn’t as good as he looked in 2014.  He has me worried a bit so the key here is to buy LOW.  Owners looking to unload him at a deep discount are your friend.  Those looking for sticker prices are not.  If you can get Anderson for a future pick or a lesser RB or WR then go for it.  Just don’t pay for a RB1 because I’m not sure he’ll return to that form, but I think RB2 or RB3 production is very realistic going forward.  Especially if he can get healthy.

Max Williams TE BAL – Maxx is the forgotten rookie now that Crockett Gilmore has “emerged”.  The 2nd year man Gillmore has done pretty darn well as the starting TE in Baltimore by already outdoing his 2014 stats with 10 catches, 151 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Sure it doesn’t take much to garner fantasy relevance at the TE position but an average of 3+ catches and 50+ yards per game isn’t world beating.  Don’t be the guy who thinks Williams will be dismissed for Mr Gillmore.  He was the best TE prospect in this incoming draft class and is as talented as any who have come out recently.  He’ll take time to get up to speed much like Eric Ebron last season but once he does he’s got far more upside than what we’re currently seeing for Gillmore.  Target him at a nice discount compared to expectations right now.

Sell High

Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI – I like Fitz as much as (probably more than) anyone, but it doesn’t take a genius to realize he can’t keep up this torrid 28 PPR fantasy points per game pace.  At the ripe age of 32 he’s still an excellent WR but the 4th overall fantasy WR spot he’s currently sitting at is a ruse.  Especially if you’re looking to get younger or to rebuild your dynasty squad Fitz is a must move after a really fantastic start to the 2015 season.  I like Fitzgerald to put up solid enough stats the rest of his career but he is not a WR1 or really even a WR2 at this stage of his career.  Move him at those prices and profit.

Devonta Freeman RB ATL – Tevin Coleman is the back to own here despite Freeman’s 193 total yard, 3 TD performance in week 3.  I won’t argue that Freeman has shown he can produce and produce at a very high level as evidenced by last week’s game.  Still, he’s not the natural RB taken that Tevin Coleman is.  Even though he’s temporarily secured the top of the RB depth chart I don’t see it lasting.  Maybe in the short term, but long term this is Coleman’s gig.  Move Freeman to an owner who thinks otherwise.  I think he’s a replaceable talent just good enough to shine in the perfect spot.  Coleman is good enough to overcome and shine despite the situation and I like him far more.

Sam Bradford QB PHI – Sure there is still QB1 upside here simply because of the Chip Kelly offense, but Philly is an absolute mess right now.  My advice is to sell now while you can still get a pretty good return for Bradford from those who believe in the Philadelphia offensive machine.  Bradford was supposedly a perfect fit for Chip with his pin point accuracy but he’s looked erratic and the poor offensive line play has him muddled.  I’d rather sell to someone more confident in his upside than I am.  If the offense comes around sure you’ll have given up a solid producer, but you also don’t have to worry about his ridiculous injury history for the rest of the time you own him.  Selling now seems like a fine gamble to me.

Joseph Randle RB DAL – Randle had a BIG game on the national stage Sunday night, but he’s really just a placeholder at RB for Dallas.  His 87 yard, 3 TD performance last week may lead some to believe otherwise but he’s a pedestrian back and was a 5th round pick in 2013.  The Cowboys offensive line will make him look better than he is, as will the loss of Dez and Romo since the team willl focus on the running game.  I’m a big fan of Christine Michael and think he’ll eventually shine when given the opportunity.  Even if you’re not a Michael fan or he fails I still think Randle simply isn’t the RB of the future in Dallas.  He’ll be replaced by a draft pick or free agent if it isn’t someone currently on the team.  Sell while he’s in a pretty solid situation because we all know how quickly situations change in the NFL.

Hold Steady

Lamar Miller RB MIA – Miller has consistently put up underwhelming numbers in 2015 for the Dolphins averaging only 9 points per game in PPR.  The team has shown they are idiots regarding Miller’s usage before and have reversed course.  My expectation is they’ll do so again and OC Bill Lazor has a tendency toward the running game.  Miller can produce and has shown us that repeatedly when used properly.  He finished 2014 as a top 10 PPR RB and has RB1 upside.  I fully expect him to become a dependable RB2 fairly quickly and still has that RB1 upside.  Plus he’s just 24 years old.  Find a doubter and get this guy.

Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT – Big Ben and the Steelers offense looked ready to take the league by storm the first 3 weeks of the season.  Regardless who the RB or WRs were Ben and squad were putting up great numbers and looked on point.  With LeVeon Bell returning in week 3 things looked to be even better.  And then the injury hit.  While Ben is expected to miss 6 weeks with an MCL sprain and bone bruise, he’s still a top tier option and averaged 300+ yards per game without Martavis Bryant.  Don’t move him, just wait this injury out.

Jimmy Graham TE SEA – The fact that he hasn’t yet had a 100 yard game in 2015 and word that he’s frustrated with his role in the passing game with the Seahawks may have some owners concerned.  Much of the offseason was filled with gloom and doom regarding Graham’s move to Seattle and this isn’t completely unexpected.  He’s already got 2 TDs in three games, ranks as a TE1 in my favorite PPR dynasty and is still the second best pass-catching tight end in the world.  He’s too good for them not to get him more involved.  Be patient.

Andre Ellington RB ARI – Things look iffy for Ellington after CJ?K has looked very good in his absence.  Last week Johnson put up 150 total yards and 2 touchdowns which is an excellent game by any standards.  Still, don’t expect the 30 year old has-been to keep up the pace or hold off Ellington from returning from injury.  I do think that Ellington is an eventual sell because David Johnson is far and away the most talented RB on this team.  Until he takes over though, you hold Ellington, let him regain his starting job while putting up some solid weeks of production and THEN sell him for a much better return than you’d otherwise net now.

There you have it folks. These are just a few guys that, in my opinion, you should be looking at this week and deciding what to do with them. Whether you have them on your roster or are thinking about acquiring someone the buy low and sell high philosophy is a powerful one. And one you should always look to take advantage of.  Obviously the final decision on these players (and others) is up to you. If you have thoughts on these guys or opinions that differ

I’d love to hear them. Hit us up in the DFW forums or post a comment and I’ll respond in kind. Differing opinions is what makes fantasy football fun after all.