Dynasty Stock Watch 2015: Week 5
By Jeff Melbostad (@Dynasty_DFW)
Welcome back to DFW’s own Dynasty Stock Watch in-season article. Each and every week we cover a number of players who fall into the buy, sell and hold categories based on current values, performance, and player trends. Player values are of the utmost importance to the fantasy football community. Striking on a player when his value is low or high makes all of the difference in the world. These concepts are especially true in dynasty leagues where player values stretch out over a much longer period of time. So while we’ll focus on some immediate news and production remember that in dynasty we can’t overreact. One game (or even a few games) a career does not make, but it does definitely give us an idea of what to expect.
Let’s take a look at my selections:
Andrew Luck – If there was ever a time to try and acquire Luck at a discount then now is that time! I doubt you’ll get much of a discount, but maybe folks are at least open to selling him at this point in the season with his struggles. He’s a top-2 dynasty asset at the QB position and has years of top-end production. He’s been a turn-over machine this season, but he was last year too in his breakout monster season. More than anything the yards and TDs need to start flowing which they will if you’re just patient. R-E-L-A-X.
David Johnson RB AZ – DJ has been great so far this year and will be a more consistent stud next season, but some owners might be worried about Ellington coming back and making a mess of the AZ RB situation for the rest of this year. There will be a lot of mouths to feed between DJ, CJ?K and Ellington so there will be some ups and downs. Take advantage as some of his owners might be more desperate for immediate production this season for their title chances. I know I am personally considering moving him in deals where I get the slightly lesser overall talent long-term but get some short-term relief with production for the rest of the year.
Jeremy Langford RB CHI – With the rumor of Chicago possibly trading Forte due to his age and the direction of the team now is the time to make a move for Langford before it’s too late. Forte is 30 years old and the team is going nowhere fast, so they may want to take the rookie for a test drive this season if they move on from Forte. To start I’d offer a 3rd for him, if that’s not enough I’d consider a 2nd for Langford and a 3rd.
Eddie Lacy RB GB – Eddie looks good when I watch him play, but his production has been a bit disappointing so far this season as the 36th ranked RB in ppg in PPR. Especially his work around the goal-line, they are relying more on Rodgers’ arm more than pounding the ball into the end-zone with Lacy. I truly think the TDs will come as he had 13 total last season and 11 the year before. He’s still a lock for double-digit TDs even though he only has one to this point.
Allen Robinson WR JAC – There were huge expectations for ARob this season and while he’s been solid along with a monster game in week 2 he’s still got room to improve. He’s had some tough match-ups so far this season. Last week he matched up with Vontae Davis which is a tough match-up for any elite WR. The week before that the Patriots game-planned to take him out of the game which is their specialty limiting key players from the opposing teams they face on a week-to-week basis. and Targets so far this season are 6, 12, 9 and 12 again last week. The schedule will get easier moving forward, the targets will continue and the FF points will come!
Andy Dalton QB CIN – Andy is currently 4th in ppg in most leagues and has scored over 20+ points every week in 4-point per TD leagues. The Cinci offense is well-rounded and he should find continued success, but I think he’ll finish the season closer to low-end QB1 status opposed to the top-5 where he sits now. Bottom line for me is that I just wouldn’t want to rely on him as my QB1, so I’d rather trade him to a team that is struggling for production at QB. There should be a few options in every league, so track down the owners of Romo, Big Ben, Tannehill or anyone else with a QB not currently in the top-10 in ppg. The odds are that he is the backup for most teams so it shouldn’t be heart-breaking to move him for a 2nd round draft pick or a slight upgrade at RB/WR/TE.
Jeremy Hill RB CIN – Didn’t have the best rushing day in week 4, but the 3 TDs really gave his value a spark. He is a tempting sell target as there will be a down games when the team is trailing and in catch-up mode with Gio. A lot of his dynasty value is tied up in rushing TDs which are hard to predict, take away his 3 TD’s and he has 4 points on Sunday. Gio is young and the coaching staff has proven that game-flow will dictate usage between the two RBs. I’d be looking to sell to the owner who still thinks he’s a 2nd round start-up talent.
Allen Hurns WR JAC – Lots of chatter on whether Hurns is for real or not. He’s currently the 22nd ranked WR in PPR, but if I were a betting man which I am I would say he’ll finish the year as a WR3 in 12-team PPR leagues which means anywhere in the 25-36 range. Julius Thomas should be back soon and I think Allen Robinson will start to pickup steam as the season goes on. Hurns can still be a valuable depth piece for byes and injuries, but I’d at least try shopping him for someone looking to plug a whole at WR assuming you don’t need his production.
Martellus Bennett TE CHI – He had a great game Sunday with 11 catches for 83 yards and a TD, but that is far from the normal day for Bennett. Truth is the team will more than likely be going in a new direction soon enough which means lots of changes. If that includes Cutler then Bennett’s value goes right down the toilet as all of his biggest games as a Bear have come with Jay the helm. He’s talented and can keep putting up numbers if things stay as-is, but similar to the stock market you have to hedge your bets and I’m not betting on things staying status-quot after the trade deadline.
Todd Gurley RB STL – This one is simple, most owners will get a flood of offers after his breakout game. Don’t get cute, just keep him. Nuff said.
Danny Woodhead RB SD – Some folks might come sniffing around to gauge the price-tag on Woodhead in an effort to get some RB production for bye weeks and to help cover for slumping players like CJ Anderson and others. He just doesn’t carry much value for it to be worthwhile, you might as well keep his production unless you’re a guarantee to not make the playoffs. In that case you could consider moving him for a 2nd which is the cheapest I would let him go for at this point. Woodhead is currently the 10th best RB in PPR in PPG and there is no reason to think he’ll let up as the Chargers have always had a passing down specialist who catches tons of passes, but he’s also getting carries every week too. His carries per game are 12, 7, 5 and 8 to go with catches per game of 4, 6, 3, 4 on 21 total targets so far this season. At his current pace he’s trending for 572 yards rushing, 816 yards receiving which is 1,388 total yards, 68 catches and 8 total TDs. That would be 254.8 points for the season in PPR which would’ve put him as the 8th ranked RB in ’14. Sounds crazy, but I truly think only an injury holds him out of the top-10 in PPR. He should also be on the buy list here as well.
Lamar Miller RB MIA – Consider me the fantasy football teacher who says, “do as I say and not as I do”. Well, I recently sold low on Miller in an attempt to shore up my RB2 spot on a championship team, but the smart move is to ride it out for better days. HC Philbin has been removed from the equation so let’s hope that has a positive effect on the team and more specifically the running game which has been non-existent. Miller is still the most explosive RB on the team and he will rebound with a strong 2nd half of the season similar to last season when he finished as RB9 in PPR format. His upside is worth the gambling on and holding even while you get owners trying to buy-low for him.
Travis Kelce TE KC – While he’s the 2nd ranked TE he’s been a bit inconsistent and most of his points have were in week 1 when he exploded for 3 TDs on 5 catches. The folks that will be looking to acquire him will be trying to do so at a discount based on the last 3 games with 10 points, 16 and 8 over that stretch. While you could’ve moved him for a King’s ransom after week 1 now is not the time to consider moving him. Maclin has been getting the love the last two weeks but as defenses adjust you’ll see Kelce getting more involved. His targets have been 6, 5, 10 and 7 over the first 4 weeks, but he should be getting close to 10 per game which will hopefully start happening very soon.
Denver Defense – I’m personally looking to acquire the Denver defense for a 3rd in many leagues, but I wouldn’t be selling them for a 3rd if I owned them and was a contender. While it’s true that it’s just a defense, this unit should rack up points all year while finishing as #1. More value to a championship team than the potential of a 3rd round rookie.
There you have it folks. These are just a few guys that, in my opinion, you should be looking at this week and deciding what to do with them. Whether you have them on your roster or are thinking about acquiring someone the buy low and sell high philosophy is a powerful one. And one you should always look to take advantage of. Obviously the final decision on these players (and others) is up to you. If you have thoughts on these guys or opinions that differ
I’d love to hear them. Hit us up in the DFW forums or post a comment and I’ll respond in kind. Differing opinions is what makes fantasy football fun after all.