Buy-Sell Dice.1a

Dynasty Stock Watch 2015: Week 8

By Jeff Melbostad (@Jeff_DFW)

Welcome back to DFW’s own Dynasty Stock Watch in-season article. Each and every week we cover a number of players who fall into the buy, sell and hold categories based on current values, performance, and player trends. Player values are of the utmost importance to the fantasy football community. Striking on a player when his value is low or high makes all of the difference in the world. These concepts are especially true in dynasty leagues where player values stretch out over a much longer period of time. So while we’ll focus on some immediate news and production remember that in dynasty we can’t overreact. One game (or even a few games) a career does not make, but it does definitely give us an idea of what to expect.

Let’s take a look at my selections:

Buy Low

Carlos Hyde RB SFO – Hyde has really only had two good fantasy performances this season in weeks 1 and 5.  The 49ers are an absolute mess of a team right now and it’s beginning to show on the football field.  Still, Hyde is a part of the solution, not part of the problem.  His 523 total yards, 3 touchdowns and 11 catches aren’t monster numbers but they’re still good enough for him to be ranked the 18th best RB in DFW48 scoring.  That is in spite of the fact that he’s on a team that is a disaster and he’s reportedly playing through a stress fracture in his foot.  As it stands he’s a low end RB2 right now and you should be able to buy at those prices.  In my opinion he’s got RB1 upside when healthy and when this team figures out its identity.  Don’t wait for Hyde to show his owner why he should hold onto him and pounce while his production and his health are down.

Andrew Luck QB IND – Believe it or not the doubts are starting to creep in for some Andrew Luck owners.  In mid-season startup mocks I’ve seen him go in the neighborhood of the 3rd round overall.  Fantasy owners are fickle and while they are the first to jump on a bandwagon, they also tend to be the first to jump off of it.  See if the Luck owner in your league is one such owner.  Prior to the start of the season Luck was thought to be a can’t miss, top 3 QB for the next 10-15 years.  I think he still is.  That offensive line in Indianapolis is doing him no favors.  Buy while there are doubts because you rarely get the opportunity to acquire a top tier talent for anything less than a king’s ransom.

Dez Bryant WR DAL – Continuing the super high end buy segment, I’ll add Dez to the list this week.  He won’t come cheaply but it should be cheaper than he will cost in a few weeks.  Word is that he’ll return in week 8 which means this is your last chance to buy before he proves why he was DFW’s consensus #1 WR heading into 2015.  Even with horrible QBs like Matt Cassel and Brandon Weeden, Dez is capable of putting up star fantasy numbers.  The fact that Tony Romo will be coming back sometime after or around week 11 doesn’t hurt as well.  Offer up a name or two that have been over-producing so far this year and you just may get someone to bite.

Sell High

Darren McFadden RB DAL – I know it sounds strange, but there are actually owners in the market to buy DMC after his big performance last Sunday.  While it’s true that any player who blows up for 162 total yards and a touchdown in a given week will garner attention, this is Darren McFadden we’re talking about.  He will NOT be reliable no matter how many times he tricks fantasy owners into believing he could be with sporadic flashes of talent.  I’ve seen him moved a couple times already and while it wasn’t for much either time I happen to think any value you can get for McFadden is worth it at this point.  Even if he only nets you a mid-late round pick at this point it’s pretty much pure profit.  DMC is 28 years old and has shown us many times that he’s a mediocre producer with injury concerns.  Let him become someone else’s headache and net what you can for him while there’s any interest at all.

Chris Ivory RB NYJ – I really like Chris Ivory so it pains me to recommend selling him right now.  The fact is he’s playing at a very high level and it’s something he’s always been capable of.  He’s got 574 total yards and 5 total TDs through 5 games which is good for a ranking of RB9 in DFW48 scoring.  Still, injury concerns are real when it comes to Ivory and are starting to creep up again with hamstring and quad issues.  These are things that can become nagging issues and destroy your fantasy team down the stretch.  Again, I like Ivory to be a great producer when healthy but you’re likely to be able to get so much more from him in a trade than you invested in him that I think he’s a great sell.  RB9 prices are not what folks had in mind this offseason but he should demand a top 10 price so ensure you get that if you do sell him.  I think you’ll eventually be happy you did even if it isn’t right away.

Charcandrick West RB KCC – Duh.  West had a good game in week 7 with a 2 catch, 129 total yard, 1 touchdown performance.  Let’s be clear though, he IS NOT the RB of the future for this team.  Jamaal Charles will return in 2016 so West is little more than a 1 year fill in which is something that is best avoided in dynasty.  If you’re really in a bind at RB and just need healthy bodies I could see holding him but I’m looking to sell wherever possible.  Those focused on immediate production are most likely to be interested.  Seek out those owners in your league and shop Charcandrick around.  He’s been wildly inconsistent through the 2 weeks since Charles went down (2.9 fantasy points in week 6 to 22.9 in week 7) and I’d expect to see more of the same the rest of the way.  I don’t know about you, but that’s simply not something I want to deal with on my teams.

Michael Crabtree WR OAK – Signs of life in week 7 is just what Crabtree owners needed from a guy who is still a relatively well known name.  Owners should be encouraged by both his 6/68/1 stat line last week and the fact that the Raiders have said they plan to get him more involved in the game plan going forward.  He was targeted more than Amari Cooper on Sunday so find an owner who thinks that will happen again and get what you can out of Crabtree.  I don’t think he’ll be a large factor and it’s clear now his problems were more than just Kaepernick and the San Francisco offense.  In fact, I’d urge moving him quickly this week as he’ll likely spend week 8 on Revis Island, which should return his value back to the pitiful norm.

Hold Steady

Stefon Diggs WR MIN – After 3 fantastic weeks the Diggs hype machine is in full effect.  In his first 3 NFL games he’s amassed an impressive 19 catches for 324 yards and a touchdown.  Extrapolate those numbers and you end up with roughly a 101/1728/5 stat line which puts him solidly in the top of the WR1 camp.  It’s looking like Diggs should’ve been a 1st round pick instead of a 5th rounder (ironically the opposite of fellow Vikings WR Cordarelle Patterson).  Many will advise selling because of these impressive numbers but I think this kid is the real deal.  Those same folks may have advised selling Odell Beckham Jr after a couple big games last season (I’ll admit I did just that last year).  Don’t make that mistake with Diggs.  I saw him in training camp and he was easily the most impressive player on the field that day and that includes all Vikings players.  He’s impressed the coaching staff since joining the team and I really believe the sky is the limit with this young man.  It’s a bit dramatic, but fellow WR Mike Wallace recently compared Diggs to ex-teammate Antonio Brown and even if there’s an ounce of truth to that we need to listen.  All the offseason hype that Charles Johnson was receiving in that MN offense should now be directed at Stefon.  If you’re lucky enough to own him don’t give him up because I think you’ll end up regretting it.

Arian Foster RB HOU – Another injury for Foster (this one season ending) spells disaster for his dynasty value.  It’s times like these that the temptation to sell is strong.  Not so fast though.  You won’t get anything for him at his age (29) and with his lengthy injury history (averages 10 games per season throughout his career).  The doomsday age of 30 for a RB will come for Foster in August and he’s coming off a torn Achilles tendon which is notoriously difficult to recover from (moreso even than an ACL).  All these factors don’t make him a very attractive prospect.  If you can get anything near reasonable value for him (2nd round pick or better) I’d say move him but I just don’t see any way you will.  As such, I’d hold him on your roster and hope for the best.  He’s bounced back from injury plenty of times before and can produce as a RB1.  That’s worth way more than selling him for peanuts even if it’s based on hope alone.

Julius Thomas TE JAX – In the two weeks since he returned from injury there’s no question that Julius has been underwhelming and it seems he may even be banged up again.  Still, his talent level is too high for him not to be a solid TE when healthy.  The big TE should come fairly cheaply as owners already concerned with his landing spot are likely ready to move on after a couple of poor performances.  Especially considering the fairly large passing statistics Jacksonville has put up thus far with Bortles targeting the Allen brothers in Robinson and Hurns.  I know our numbers are dwindling but I still remain firmly in the camp who thinks Thomas’ value wasn’t nearly as tied to Peyton Manning as many would have you believe.  As such, I’d hold and wait for him to ultimately rebound. 

There you have it folks. These are just a few guys that, in my opinion, you should be looking at this week and deciding what to do with them. Whether you have them on your roster or are thinking about acquiring someone the buy low and sell high philosophy is a powerful one. And one you should always look to take advantage of.  Obviously the final decision on these players (and others) is up to you. If you have thoughts on these guys or opinions that differ

I’d love to hear them. Hit us up in the DFW forums or post a comment and I’ll respond in kind. Differing opinions is what makes fantasy football fun after all.