Buy-Sell Dice.1a


Dynasty Stock Watch 2016: Week 12


By Jeff Melbostad (@Jeff_DFW)

Welcome back to DFW’s own Dynasty Stock Watch in-season article. Each and every week we cover a number of players who fall into the buy, sell and hold categories based on current values, performance, and player trends. Player values are of the utmost importance to the fantasy football community. Striking on a player when his value is low or high makes all of the difference in the world. These concepts are especially true in dynasty leagues where player values stretch out over a much longer period of time. So while we’ll focus on some immediate news and production remember that in dynasty we can’t overreact. One game (or even a few games) a career does not make, but it does definitely give us an idea of what to expect.

Let’s take a look at my selections:

 

Buy Low

Jimmy Graham TE SEA – Some will say the ship has already sailed on acquiring Graham.  After seeing him score three touchdowns in the previous three weeks they may just be right.  Graham currently sits as the #3 TE in DFW48 scoring and that’s worth taking note of.  I may be the last one but Jimmy has finally proven to me that he’s back healthy and can return to form as the dynamic, pass catching playmaker that he is.  I think Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are realizing the same thing.  Look for his targets to grow beyond his current top 10 TE numbers.  It’s only a matter of time before folks are clamoring over him again so nab him before that’s truly the case.

AJ Green WR CIN – What a disappointment it was to see AJ Green go down but the good news is that he escaped what was originally feared to be a fully torn hamstring.  He’ll miss some time but not as much as we thought he might a few days ago.  It goes without saying that AJ is a stud fantasy WR given the fact that he’s never caught fewer than 1000 yards in his 6 year career and is just a shade under that number through 10 games in 2016.  The fact of the matter is that injuries scare owners, especially those that happen right before the playoffs/trade deadline.  Capitalize on that even if owners now know the injury isn’t as severe as it could have been.  Those making a title run will likely sell at a discount for someone they know will put up points for them this season.  If that’s the case in your league you need to make a play for him now.

Marcus Mariota QB TEN – Yes I’m aware that Mariota is currently on an impressive 3 game tear (some would even go 7 games back) and that he sits as a top 5 fantasy QB in DFW48 scoring.  He’s far from flying under the radar, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s not a buy low candidate.  As a young guy on a mediocre team that flies under the radar there are many that don’t see him as the top 5 fantasy QB that I now do.  Make a play for him while that is still the case.  He’s got a long and prosperous career ahead of him and if he’s on your team you’ll be happier for it.


Sell High

LeGarrette Blount RB NEP – Blount has been a mad man for owners thus far in 2016.  Through the first 11 weeks he’s put up RB6 numbers and leads all RBs in touchdowns with 12.  Still, I think the best is behind him.  Blount will assuredly lose looks with Dion Lewis now back from IR and James White drawing lots of compliments from his coaching staff.  Blount was never going to be much of a 3rd down or pass catching back but he’ll start to lose 2-down carries as well as we move forward.  He’ll always be a goal line and short yardage threat but the way he’s performing his owners are expecting more.  Time to sell for someone who doesn’t have the downside that he does or for a pick or two.  I think it’s just a matter of time before Blount, who isn’t a supremely talented back, is relegated to the complementary role he’s been accustomed to his whole career.  Folks quickly forget that he finished with RB40 stats in 2015.

CJ Fiedorowicz TE HOU – Since week 4 of the NFL season Fiedorowicz ranks as a top 10 producing fantasy TE in DFW48 scoring.  He’s been putting up fairly consistent numbers during that period and has proven a reliable outlet for struggling Houston QB Brock Osweiler.  That said, I attribute his production more to the fact that Brock isn’t much good at all and just checks down to his reliable TE rather than any type of talent CJ has.  If someone is willing to pay for his services then the time to sell is now.  It’s certainly possible that the 3rd year pro has suddenly figured things out and will be solid go forward but I’m not gambling on that.  I’ll sell while his value is high (aka he actually has any value) and take whatever I can get for him.

Tyreek Hill WR KCC – There are many owners out there who will disagree with me on my classification of this breakout rookie.  Why sell a guy who is just now breaking out and showing his ability to make big plays?  Well, to be honest other than two games this season his production has been pretty iffy and very up and down.  In his two best games on the year Tyreek has averaged roughly 7 catches for 95 yards and half a TD.  In his other 9 games that average drops to a mediocre 2 catches for 21 yards and 0.3 TDs.  Those suffering from recency bias will likely buy the hype that he’s breaking out but once Jeremy Maclin returns that hype will be squashed.  Sell while the hype is still there and be happy you did.  Don’t get me wrong.  I’m not saying Hill is or will be a bad NFL or fantasy player especially since he’s still a rookie and developing as a player.  I’m simply saying you can get more for him right now than he’s worth.  And in the stock market that is dynasty fantasy football that’s the name of the game.  Capitalize.


Hold Steady

Tyler Boyd WR CIN – Everyone knows that AJ Green partially tore his hamstring in week 11 and it could have been much worse than it was.  Regardless, it’s likely that the superstar WR will miss time and that could be just the opportunity that the promising rookie, Boyd, needed.  He’s likely to still play in the slot and that’s probably the spot he’s best suited for, but the tremendous number of targets normally going Green’s way will be distributed elsewhere.  When Green got hurt last week it was Boyd who seemed to be the guy that Dalton locked on to.  He “went off” to the tune of 6 catches for 54 yards and 1 TD.  The point is that Boyd’s best days are ahead of him and he should see a good bump in value very quickly if he capitalizes on the opportunity ahead of him.  Don’t let a savvy owner who sees that same opportunity nab him from you before he proves himself.

Kenneth Dixon RB BAL – After putting up relatively solid numbers in week 10 (5 catches, 80 total yards) Dixon roughly split carries with Terrance West evenly in week 11.  That’s trending in the right direction for the rookie back who I definitely feel is better than West who is likely the more popular back to own now.  If you own Dixon you likely drafted him and that investment will pay off sooner than later.  I don’t have a lot of confidence in West holding down that position and think the team has shown they want Dixon more involved and, in my opinion, want him to carry the load.  Patience is a virtue with some rookies as they evolve slower than others.  Sure those that drafted Dixon a pick or two after Ezekiel Elliot are disappointed but he’ll produce for you if you stick with him so don’t do anything rash right now.

Christine Michael RB GBP – It’s always shocking to see a productive player get outright released by an NFL team, but Michael landed in a pretty solid place with plenty of opportunity.  Sure, the Packers are a bit of a mess right now but they can still put up points when they want/need to.  Michael has proven he can produce in Seattle and Green Bay is in desperate need of a playmaking RB so sit tight and wait for him to do start putting up numbers again. I still don’t like his long term prospects beyond 2016, but wait for his value to go up again before selling.  In that offense I think it will and it’ll be sooner than later.  Just be sure you’re ready to flip him as an asset when it does.

There you have it folks. These are just a few guys that, in my opinion, you should be looking at this week and deciding what to do with them. Whether you have them on your roster or are thinking about acquiring someone the buy low and sell high philosophy is a powerful one. And one you should always look to take advantage of. Obviously the final decision on these players (and others) is up to you. If you have thoughts on these guys or opinions that differ

I’d love to hear them. Hit us up in the DFW forums or post a comment and I’ll respond in kind. Differing opinions is what makes fantasy football fun after all.