Buy-Sell Dice.1a

Dynasty Stock Watch 2016: Week 2

By Jeff Melbostad (@Jeff_DFW)

Welcome back to DFW’s own Dynasty Stock Watch in-season article. Each and every week we cover a number of players who fall into the buy, sell and hold categories based on current values, performance, and player trends. Player values are of the utmost importance to the fantasy football community. Striking on a player when his value is low or high makes all of the difference in the world. These concepts are especially true in dynasty leagues where player values stretch out over a much longer period of time. So while we’ll focus on some immediate news and production remember that in dynasty we can’t overreact. One game (or even a few games) a career does not make, but it does definitely give us an idea of what to expect.

Let’s take a look at my selections:

Buy Low

Keenan Allen WR SDC – Before you jump all over me in the comments, I am indeed aware of the fact that Allen tore his ACL and is out for the remainder of 2016 as a result.  But there are few instances where you can buy a star player at a terrific discount.  Said player being put on IR is generally one of those times.  Especially when it happens in week 1.  Check out the Allen owner’s team in your league and see if he’s desperate enough to take a middling player who will produce this year and a draft pick or some type of similar package.  Sure, you won’t gain any production this year, but Allen is a player who has averaged nearly 6 catches for 70 yards and half a touchdown per game since entering the league.  Those are solid numbers and, since this is dynasty, you’ll be reaping the rewards of a severe discount in future years.  You at least owe it to yourself to explore his cost whether a deal is made or not.

Tevin Coleman RB ATL – It’s lucky for me that you’re reading this article from top to bottom or you might question why the hell I’m advising buying Coleman AND holding his teammate Devonta Freeman.  Oops, guess I spoiled my own trick.  Anyway, I’m advising buying Coleman because he’s an awesome runner as evidenced by his week 1 numbers (117 total yards and 5 receptions).  Many forget that he won the starting RB job outright last preseason before getting injured and Devonta having his breakout year keeping Coleman on the pine ever since.  He’s not a slouch and someone that is a terrific dynasty prospect whether he remains on the same team as Freeman or not.  I’ll explain more in the Freeman writeup below but I guess what I’m advising is owning both, not one or the other.  If you own Freeman then your team is not complete without Coleman and vice versa.

Kevin White WR CHI – It’s only a matter of time before this young man breaks out in a big way.  He was an elite talent coming out of the NFL draft and injuries have kept him from seeing the field.  Predictably, he didn’t rip it up in his first NFL game netting just 34 yards on 3 catches.  That just means that the window to buy him at a lower cost has widened another week.  He was the most targeted Bear on the roster in week 1 which means something.  He’ll be given plenty of chances to make plays and I think he’ll make them sooner than later.  Acquire him while his cost is still less than his production.  It won’t be so easy later on.

Sell High

Carson Wentz QB PHI – In dynasty it sure seems like a 22 point, QB11 score in DFW48 scoring from your new rookie QB is a fantastic sign and a reason to latch on and hold.  I think it might be the opposite if you can get a solid price (future 1st or early 2nd) from a believer.  Wentz may have had a good outing in week 1 but there is plenty of downside here.  The Eagles are not nearly as good as they looked in week 1 and they were playing an abysmal Browns team that may have trouble winning a game this year.  Wentz will have ups and downs and struggle at some point as all rookie QBs do.  Plus, next years draft class is going to be a rich one so if I can net an early 2017 2nd round pick or an upside skill position player (WR or RB) I’d make that trade all day.  Let someone else buy into the next promising young QB.

Christine Michael RB SEA – Michael started for the Seahawks in week 1 and put up some reasonably decent numbers, running for 66 yards on 15 carries and catching two balls.  Certainly those aren’t awe inspiring numbers but the key here is that you’re selling a starting NFL RB who leads his team in rushing.  At least for an extremely short period of time here.  The window is already closing on the CMike renaissance and while it’s a feel good story for him to get it all together after struggling and jumping to various teams, it’s one that I don’t think has a happy ending.  I just don’t see him being a long term starter based on his past and the fact that the team has already hinted at the fact that his role will diminish go forward with Rawls healthy enough to take on a full workload.  Sell this guy as fast as you can for what diminishing value you can get.

Will Fuller WR HOU – Fuller put up some awesome stats in week 1 (a 5/107/1 stat line) but his game is predicated on the ever elusive big play, deep ball.  As such he will flash at times, like he did this week, and disappear at others.  He reminds me of DeSean Jackson in that way, who has been a solid fantasy contributor at times but maddeningly frustrating to start on a weekly basis.  Fuller was drafted high (21st overall) but his small frame and propensity to drop the ball are also legit concerns.  Use his draft pedigree and week 1 boom to net yourself a more sure, stable prospect or veteran and be happy you did come mid-season.

Hold Steady

Devonta Freeman RB ATL – The panic is spreading.  Freeman owners are jumping off the ship.  I say calm down and keep your head about you.  As a Freeman owner you owe it to yourself to do so.  It’s true that Tevin Coleman outplayed a DFW favorite in Freeman, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to become a pattern.  Remember that this is the guy who lost his starting job to Coleman just last offseason and only gained it back due to an injury Coleman suffered in preseason.  From there on he only went on to be the best fantasy RB by a very large 49.7 point margin last year in DFW48 scoring.  He’s no slouch and will not be forgotten in this offense.  Sure, Coleman will get more carries and they’ll split the load but in the fantasy world of today that should surprise no one.  There are very, very few backs in the league these days that get 80-90% of their team’s carries.  Freeman and Coleman can both produce and make owners very happy.  I say own both and regardless of injury or production you’ll own two great backs.  Whether they continue to be on the same team or not in the future your fantasy team will profit from owning them.

TJ Yeldon RB JAX – The reports of Yeldon’s fantasy death have been greatly exaggerated in the wake of the Chris Ivory signing.  Yes, I know Ivory is in the hospital and, as such, unable to compete with TJ, but those owners smart enough to stick with the 22 year old back after a rough offseason are now reaping the rewards.  Weldon didn’t post fantastic numbers, but they were good enough for 16.9 fantasy points in DFW48 scoring and top 15 RB finish.  Borderline RB1 stuff for week 1.  Ivory has never been the model of health and Yeldon is a very solid, young prospect.  Hold on to him and watch him continue to develop and produce in a fantasy world that no longer relies on a single workhorse RB anymore.  Sure, Ivory will put up numbers too this year but the long term play is Yeldon and this being dynasty we’re looking both long and short term.  Something that is all too easy to forget when you’re watching the games.

Doug Baldwin WR SEA – Since coming into the league as an undrafted free agent in 2011, Baldwin has had doubters in abundance.  I’ll even admit to being one of them a couple years back.  He doesn’t have other worldly athleticism and isn’t a big name, but he flat out produces in a Seattle offense that generally doesn’t produce big passing numbers.  In 2015 Baldwin put up a ridiculous 14 touchdowns so his name is on the map, but he isn’t often as highly hyped as some younger, flashier wideouts meaning a lesser return if you’re looking to trade.  Regardless, Baldwin has found his niche, is extremely efficient and Russell Wilson locks in on him when he needs a sure-fire completion.  Keep your solid WR2 whether others think he’s an enigma or the real deal.  He’ll produce consistent numbers and make your job as a fantasy owner as simple as plug and play.  Oh yeah… and he put up a 9/92/1 stat line in week 1.  Pretty good for a “WR2”.

There you have it folks. These are just a few guys that, in my opinion, you should be looking at this week and deciding what to do with them. Whether you have them on your roster or are thinking about acquiring someone the buy low and sell high philosophy is a powerful one. And one you should always look to take advantage of.  Obviously the final decision on these players (and others) is up to you. If you have thoughts on these guys or opinions that differ

I’d love to hear them. Hit us up in the DFW forums or post a comment and I’ll respond in kind. Differing opinions is what makes fantasy football fun after all.