Buy-Sell Dice.1a


Dynasty Stock Watch 2016: Week 7


By Jeff Melbostad (@Jeff_DFW)

Welcome back to DFW’s own Dynasty Stock Watch in-season article. Each and every week we cover a number of players who fall into the buy, sell and hold categories based on current values, performance, and player trends. Player values are of the utmost importance to the fantasy football community. Striking on a player when his value is low or high makes all of the difference in the world. These concepts are especially true in dynasty leagues where player values stretch out over a much longer period of time. So while we’ll focus on some immediate news and production remember that in dynasty we can’t overreact. One game (or even a few games) a career does not make, but it does definitely give us an idea of what to expect.

Let’s take a look at my selections:

 

Buy Low

CJ Anderson RB DEN – Four pretty mediocre weeks in a row has got to make CJ Anderson owners at least a little squeamish.  After starting off red hot with 24.1 average PPR points and ranking RB3 overall through the first two weeks, owners are currently looking at an average of 9.4 points and a RB27 ranking over the four weeks since.  While that still represents somewhat respectable numbers, it isn’t what folks had in mind when drafting Anderson as their 1st or 2nd back in startups.  Seek out his owner and see if they’ll entertain offers at his current performance level.  Chances are there’s a solid happy medium between his value from the first two weeks and his value since.  Find that happy medium and make it happen because I think his numbers will also be somewhere in between making him a borderline RB1 who should be attainable at lower prices than that.

Tyler Lockett WR SEA – I’m sure there aren’t a lot of fantasy owners more disappointed in their highly hyped, young WR than those that own Lockett.  He’s got just 11 catches and 152 through 5 games this year and looks more like a WR6 than the WR3 that many owners were hoping they owned heading into 2016.  There’s no question that Lockett has fantastic speed and explosiveness and that’s what made his expectations so high.  Unfortunately he’s been banged up with a knee injury that has limited that burst.  Likewise, the Seattle passing offense has been a bit of a mess so far this season.  I’m not worried on either count.  Once healthy and once Russell Wilson’s offense gets on track Lockett will show us all why we liked him.  Use the fact that he barely ranks inside the top 100 WRs after 6 weeks to buy him on the cheap and reap the rewards later this season and go forward.  The 24 year old, 2nd year pro has plenty of playmaking to do in his career. 

Tajae Sharpe WR TEN – Perhaps no one player has suffered a more dramatic drop in value than Sharpe has this season.  The preseason darling started off with 14.6 points (DFW48 scoring) in week 1 and has scored just 22.4 points in the 5 weeks since.  After putting up a goose egg in week 6 coach Mike Mularkey spoke about how Sharpe needs to improve and there’s no question he’s regressed to the point of being a complete non factor for fantasy owners.  Still, he’s a rookie WR in a mediocre passing offense.  The fact that they believed in a 5th round pick strongly enough to unload Dorial Green-Beckham and trot him out as a starter in week 1 means something.  Sure, he’s got growing and learning to do but let him do so on your roster.  You should get him much, much cheaper than you could’ve after week 1 and I think you’ll be happy you did long term if you can make a deal happen.


Sell High

Lamar Miller RB HOU – Miller has long been a favorite of mine.  I thought highly of him coming out of college and have enjoyed owning him in many leagues since.  Still, he just never seems to be able to secure the bell cow, lead back type numbers we all expect of him.  It’s time to stop relying on the “situation” excuse and face the facts that he may just be fools gold for the long haul.  Don’t get me wrong, Miller has performed as a RB2 after 5 weeks (prior to last week) and that’s about how I view him.  He’s an upside RB2 who can put up RB1 numbers on occasion but also will throw a few stinkers at you like he did his 3.4 point (DFW48 scoring) performance in week 5.  After a gigantic week 6 in which he put up a 27/178/2 stat line I’d be tempted to move him if you can get RB1 value for him which you should be able to do.  Sell Miller for a more consistent option or a nice package of picks and youth depending on your team’s situation.  

Terrance West RB BAL – West is playing out of his mind right now and looks like he won’t easily relinquish his job to the young, flashy draft pick in Kenneth Dixon.  He has put up an average of 19.5 PPR points the past 3 weeks and currently sits as the 21st best fantasy RB in the game.  West was a solid RB coming out of college and was actually taken earlier in his draft than Dixon was last year, but I still think Dixon will eventually secure the job.  West has shown us some good things both this year and in the past but he’s also shown a propensity to mess things up both on and off the field with immaturity and inconsistency.  The bonehead factor is something one should never ignore as countless “stud” fantasy players have proven in the past.  I’ll take my chances with the unknown upside that Dixon represents even if you have to wait a full season for the bet to pay off.  Let West regress to the norm on someone else’s roster in the meantime.

Cole Beasley WR DAL – After putting up WR17 numbers so far this season no one can say that Beasley hasn’t been playing well. Use that fact to your advantage and seek a trade for the 5 year pro.  Beasley has earned a role in this offense, the only question is how big will that role continue to be go forward.  Dez Bryant is set to return fairly soon and will undoubtedly be the main focal point of the Cowboys’ passing offense when he does.  With Ezekiel Elliot also performing well I’m not sure how much room there will be for Beasley in this offense.  I’ll be a bit shocked if he keeps up his current WR2 pace so look to move him now while he’s hot.


Hold Steady

Terrelle Pryor WR CLE – I’ll readily admit that it took me a while to come around on Pryor.  The standout college QB who transitions to WR in the NFL rarely succeeds in my experience.  Pryor looks to be the exception.  He has always had elite altheticism but he’s finally complementing that with solid WR play to the tune of top 10 fantasy WR numbers through the first 6 weeks.  I absolutely don’t expect him to keep up that pace but I absolutely expect him to remain in the WR2/3 conversation go forward.  Don’t sell him thinking this is a fluke because I think he’s here to stay.  Other owners will try to use his sudden breakout and the fact that he plays for the Browns (really his biggest weakness) as evidence that you should deal him.  I say hold stead and enjoy owning a big play guy who is garnering tons of targets (currently the 8th most targeted WR).

Jordan Howard RB CHI – Week 6 was not a great week for Howard but he’s the best RB on this team bar none.  He had just 35 yards on 15 carries this week but maintains a steady 5.0 yards per carry over the entire season.  That isn’t an elite number but it’s far better than the 3.6 yards per carry that fantasy favorite RB Jeremy Langford averages for both 2016 and his career.  I just happen to think that Howard is the far better player in every respect and he’s the future at the position in Chicago.  Ka’Deem Carey is no real threat so Howard is the guy to own here.  After two very solid weeks prior to his down game (18.2 and 27.3 fantasy points respectively in DFW48 scoring) owners are looking to buy.  I won’t sell.

Justin Forsett RB DET – Yes, he’s a 31 year old running back who just got cut but he’s worth a spot on your roster.  He will earn a role in a Detroit backfield that is severely dinged up and in need of veteran leadership.  He’s also worth basically nothing on the trade market so don’t give him up for peanuts or drop him to your waiver wire.  At least do me (and Forsett) the favor of seeing how things shake out the next few weeks.  If nothing happens and you end up cutting him anyway you’ve lost nothing.  If he garners the role I think he might you’ll regret letting him go for nothing.

There you have it folks. These are just a few guys that, in my opinion, you should be looking at this week and deciding what to do with them. Whether you have them on your roster or are thinking about acquiring someone the buy low and sell high philosophy is a powerful one. And one you should always look to take advantage of.  Obviously the final decision on these players (and others) is up to you. If you have thoughts on these guys or opinions that differ

I’d love to hear them. Hit us up in the DFW forums or post a comment and I’ll respond in kind. Differing opinions is what makes fantasy football fun after all.