By Mike Krafick (@mike_krafick)

Buy-Sell Dice.1a

 

It’s week 11 of the NFL season already and it’s time for the competitive teams to make a push for that championship.  It’s also time for those teams that aren’t in the running for a title to continue to build their roster for the future.  Let’s take a look at some players that can help teams in either situation.


Sell

Thomas Rawls, RB Seattle – With recent news of Seattle releasing Christine Michael that suggests that Thomas Rawls is ready to return from a broken leg injury that has kept him off the field since week 2.  Now is the time to unload Rawls before he even takes a snap, I believe his value will only decrease as I do not expect him to be the feature back for The Seahawks even if he is fully healthy.  C.J. Prosise has carved out a role in that backfield and at best Rawls will be stuck in a RBBC, but I think he will be used sparingly with the more talented former WR getting the bulk of touches.  A players value is almost never higher than when coming back from an extended absence, cash in while you can.

Ezekiel Elliot, RB Dallas – Seems unthinkable to move the best young Running Back in the NFL if you have him on your dynasty team, right?  But now may be the time to upgrade to a stud WR or get multiple valuable assets.  I recently traded away Zeke for OBJ straight up in an IDP league, I’m not competing for a title in that league this year but I think that’s a trade I’d make either way.  Zeke just scored 3 touchdowns in a nationally televised game against Pittsburgh and he’s one of the most valuable assets in fantasy football.  Any time a player has a hat trick in an NFL game, I’m willing to consider shopping him to see what I can get.  It needs to be a great offer, a Godfather offer that you can’t refuse but everything has a price…..What is Elliot’s?

Lamar Miller, RB Houston – Miller is not exactly a sell high but it may be time to get what you can for him before his value gets any lower.  The Texans are not a good offense (cue the Breaking News music) and Brock Osweiler is sucking the fantasy value out of every skill position player on the Texans.  How many weeks have we been waiting for Miller to have some positive TD regression?  I think it’s time to give up on expecting anything different that what we’ve seen for the past 9 games.  If I can find an owner that still values Miller as an RB1 I will gladly part ways with him.


Hold

Cameron Meredith, WR Chicago – With the news of Alshon Jeffrey getting suspended for 4 games some owners may want to cash in on a player that they picked up off the waiver wire now that he’s going to be thrust into the #1 WR role for the Bears.  I think that Meredith away now would be a mistake, he’s has shown to be an extremely efficient receiver this year on a limited 41 targets.  In the last 3 games that Meredith has played he’s only logged one reception in each of those games but now that Alshon will be sidelined Meredith can step up as a target hog receiver that can carry your fantasy team to the playoffs.  The Bears have a very favorable upcoming schedule with the Giants, Titans, 49ers, and Lions coming up in the next 4 weeks.

C.J. Prosise, RB Seattle – If you couldn’t tell how much I believe in Prosise with my Rawls take above then let me take this time to convince you of why you should keep him on your roster regardless of Rawls returning to the field.  Prosise is leading all RB’s in Yard per Touch with 7.3, admittedly it’s a small sample size with only 41 touches but Seattle has shown us the last few weeks that they want to get the rookie more involved in the offense.  He’s shown a great ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, catching 15 of 16 targets for a 93.8% catch rate and Seattle has been throwing the ball much more this season running more of an up-tempo offense.  The Seahawks are 14th in the league in % of pass plays in 2016 but over the past 3 weeks they are ranked 8th passing the ball 66% of the time.

Eli Rogers, WR Pittsburgh – Rogers has emerged as the Steelers #2 WR and is seeing a decent share of targets in one of the most pass heavy offenses in the league.  With no Martavis Bryant or Markus Wheaton and Sammie Coates sidelined with 2 broken fingers the 2nd year UDFA has put up double digit fantasy points in back to back weeks.  Over the past 2 weeks he’s had 10 receptions for 145 yards and 1 TD.  Rogers is not biggest or most athletic WR the Steelers have but he’s been reliable and consistent when given opportunity and I’m expecting that opportunity to continue.


Buy

Alshon Jeffery, WR Chicago – Normally is my policy to avoid NFL players that get suspended for substance abuse violations but I’m willing to make an exception for Jeffery.  I’m willing to believe that Jeffery’s suspension will be an isolated incident based on what he tested positive for, in his statement he claims that it was a supplement that had an ingredient on the banned substance list.  Players that test positive for drugs like marijuana like Josh Gordon, Lev Bell, and Martivis Bryant have multiple positive tests before they get suspended but the PED policy calls for a 4 game suspension with the first positive test.  Jeffery has been in the league for 5 years and this is the first incident that has come up with him and I’m willing to give him a pass on this but I’m assuming other owners may not be so forgiving.  I do not expect Alshon to be with Chicago next year but it’s unlikely that he’ll get a mega-contract with the suspension and lack of elite production this season so he’ll likely be playing for another deal in 2017.  I’m throwing out offers to see if the Jeffery owner in my league is panicking over the suspension news.

Tyrell Williams, WR San Diego – Tyrell Williams has stepped up in Keenan Allen’s absence this year and is producing like a top-20 WR as Phillip Rivers’ #1 option in the passing game.  Williams has 9 Red Zone receptions and 4 TD’s on the year, he’s seeing nearly 20% of the Chargers Red Zone targets.  Tyrell “The Gazelle” has great workout metrics and the size to play as a prototypical X-receiver, even when Allen returns next year Williams can have a major role in a pass heavy offense.  If that’s not a good enough reason for you to buy, take a look at the Chargers upcoming schedule during the fantasy playoffs (weeks 14, 15, and 16) he will get to face Carolina, Oakland, and Cleveland.  Trade for Williams now and ride his production to a fantasy championship, you’ll have to pay for him after what he did in week 10 but he’s a good short and long term investment.

Jamison Crowder, WR Washington – Coming into the 2016 season Crowder was seen as the 4th or 5th option in the passing game for the Redskins but he’s emerged as the most consistent and reliable pass catcher for Kirk Cousins.  Washington is one of the more pass heavy teams in the NFL and Jamison Crowder has a 69.8% catch rate,  he’s only had 2 weeks this year without double digit fantasy points.  In week 11 Washington gets to face the Packers, a team that just gave up a ton of fantasy points through the air to Marcus Mariota.  This may be your last chance to buy him for a reasonable cost, Crowder is producing like a WR2 but most fantasy owners do not see him that way.  DeSean Jackson is banged up and unavailable, Jordan Reed is consistently out dealing with injuries so I expect Crowder to continue to see plenty of targets going forward.


Good luck in your quest for a fantasy championship.  Let me know who you are buying, holding, and selling to get there.  Follow me on twitter @mike_krafick