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“You are NOT the father!”
Last time around, I went over the first 16 rounds of a 12 team Dynasty Start Up Mock Draft. I told you my favorite and least favorite draft picks, round by round, and tried to analyze each round’s trends. Here is a link to the article: Link This time around, there are a few other voices that would like to be heard. Below, you will find the reaction from the rest of the drafters. Enjoy the read and don’t forget to check back for some more updated mock drafts as we move along in the post season!
Side note: The David Wilson pick in the 3rd round is already paying off for Skip. Foot inserted into mouth…now!
Justin Myers (1.01)
-What do you think was your best pick?
Peyton Manning at 7.01 I know he’s older, but he’s still got 3 solid years left IMO. This allowed me to stock up on other positions as I’m a firm believer of waiting on QBs.
-What pick do you feel you reached on/aren’t comfortable with?
Crabtree at 3.01 which is considered a reach by most, however he has been elite since week 8. As much as I love his situation with Kap he does come with some risk of not performing up to this ADP moving forward.
-What was the best pick of the draft? (by another owner) –
The Captain with Brees at 4.09 which is crazy-good value, especially when he has 3-5 good years left.
-What was the biggest reach of the draft? (by another owner) -
Jeff selected DMC at 2.10 which is really high for my taste. He proves over and over again that he just can’t stay healthy, but he is still elite when he’s on the field which is the hard part.
-Any tips you can give to an owner drafting in a dynasty league for the first time? -
There are a number of different strategies to start-up drafts. One that I personally live and die by is waiting on QB while stacking studs at RB/WR. QB is a very deep position after the additions of Luck, RG3, Wilson and Kaepernick and the re-emergence of Peyton which gives us 12 really good starting options. You have Rodgers, Luck, Cam, Brees, RG3, Stafford, Ryan, Brady, Russell, Kaepernick, Peyton, Romo. I’d be fine with any of these guys in the 6th/7th rounds while grabbing 2RB/4WR minimum . Also, try and remain flexible during the draft and grab value that slips in the draft.
-Who do you think had the best draft and why? (by another owner) –
I believe Jeff had the most complete draft. He grabbed a few good QBs in Cam, Roethe and then Schaub as a #3 is solid. Rice, Bradshaw and DMC at RB while cuffing DMC with Reece which is a must IMO. Wallace, Jennings, Britt and DJax gives him 4 good options at WR. He follows that up with two solid TEs in Vernon and Gates, I truly believe V.Davis is too good to be held down for much longer.
Joe Kilroy (1.02)
-What do you think was your best pick?
Jimmy Graham at the end of the second. He produces at the level of roughly a Top 15 wide receiver with the luxury of being able to line him up at TE.
-What pick do you feel you reached on/aren’t comfortable with?
Mikel Leshoure at the end of the fourth. I don’t like being thin at running back and feel he was the best one remaining as my number two at the position. That said I don’t feel comfortable with him being a long-term option for me there.The Lions may still be searching for someone new this offseason, or in the one that follows if Leshoure doesn’t show he can consistently average better than 4.0 yards per carry.
-What was the best pick of the draft? (by another owner)
Luke drafting Jamaal Charles in the early-to-mid second could prove to be a great selection (Editor’s Note: Great Call!). People already know what he is capable of, but in Andy Reid’s offense I tend to think he’ll become a more consistent point producer. That’s especially true in PPR leagues.If Reid gets the Chiefs QB situation fixed quickly Charles should also see a decent jump in his TD production as well. Basically, Charles could jump into the same value category as Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy were heading into the start of the 2012 season.
-What was the biggest reach of the draft? (by another owner)
I think I’d go with Andrew Luck at 2.06 and Russell Wilson at 5.10.In regards to Luck I say this because similiar QB value could have been had later (for example, the Luck owner also selected Matthew Stafford in the fifth round).In regards to Wilson I just didn’t think he’d go that high. They could both prove to be well worth the selections, but I don’t think I would have considered either one until a round or two later than they had gone.
-Any tips you can give to an owner drafting in a dynasty league for the first time?
My approach is to always be well balanced in both terms of meaningful starters at every position while maintaining a team that isn’t too young or too old.Take the best value with every single pick while keeping the above kept in mind. In dynasty leagues if you have notable players everywhere (as in your depth/back-up players) you will be able to make trades where you group a handful of promising players for a clear upgrade somewhere.
-Who do you think had the best draft and why? (by another owner)
If I had to name just one I’d go with Chase. His team has solid starters across the board with notable depth. He has some roster flexibility as well in terms of who he’d start from which positions on a weekly basis at his flex spots.He doesn’t have a really old or young team either, so I tend to think he’d be set up well over that three year window dynasty leaguers tend to view their roster within.
Jeff Melbostad (1.03)
-What do you think was your best pick?
Vernon Davis at 9.03. I realize he struggled this year and his value took a hit as a result of that but he’s as talented as it gets at the TE position. In my book he’s a top 4-5 TE and I got him as the 8th one off the board. He showed very well in the last NFC championship game so I have high hopes for his future.
-What pick do you feel you reached on/aren’t comfortable with?
Cam Newton at 3.03 is a bit of a reach in retrospect. Don’t get me wrong, I love getting Cam as my starting QB. He’s a super talented, young stud and should be an anchor of this team for a while. But seeing RG3 and Stafford go in the 5th while Peyton and Romo were taken in the 7th makes me think I may have spent too early a pick on a QB. Obviously, hindsight is 20/20.
-What was the best pick of the draft? (by another owner)
It’s hard to argue with Larry Fitzgerald at 3.07 as the best pick. He’s a top 5 WR (#3 in my current rankings) and was the 11th WR taken off the board in this draft. It’ll take more than one down year with some of the worst quarterbacking on the face of the planet to convince me he’s fallen from grace. Before 2012 he goes in the first round without a doubt. Getting him with a late 3rd is a steal in my book.
-What was the biggest reach of the draft? (by another owner)
David Wilson at 3.04 was a pretty big reach in my estimation. Taking him that high and as the 13th RB off the board means he has to not only be named the starter but produce big things. There’s just no room for error there. He still has Bradshaw (Editor’s Note: Bradshaw was cut AFTER the draft took place) to contend with and may not be the starter on his own team. While I believe in his talent as much as anyone there are guys just as talented and, in some cases, almost as young in better situations taken after him. I think Wilson is a guy who is tremendously overvalued right now because of some nice games late in the season. Buyer beward at this kind of price.
-Any tips you can give to an owner drafting in a dynasty league for the first time?
Value youth but don’t over-value it. The biggest mistake I see dynasty newbies make is either drafting tons of youth at the expense of being able to compete now or drafting like redraft at the expense of your hopes for the future. There is a balance there and while it isn’t easy to find make sure you draft both young potential and productive vets to ensure you compete both short-term and long-term.
-Who do you think had the best draft and why? (by another owner)
I like Carl’s team the best (since I can’t choose myself ). He’s solid at all positions with two stud RBs, a solid set of WR starters, a young stud TE, and great potential at QB. All teams have their weaknesses and while depth may be his Carl definitely has the best starters in terms of both potential and production of the group.
Skip Brott (1.04)
-What do you think was your best pick?
Lamar Miller in the 10th round. Daniel Thomas is not a competent backup for Reggie Bush who really faltered most of 2012. Bush is a free agent who may sign back on, but he is clearly showing a fading skill set and Miller should get plenty of opportunity to show his in 2013 with a very promising future ahead.
-What pick do you feel you reached on/aren’t comfortable with?
I actually like the selection, but if I had to nitpick I would say David Wilson at 3.4 may have been earlier than others would have selected him. Being a mock where we weren’t trading draft picks, there was no chance he was going to last until 4.9 so it was the price I had to pay to get who I wanted. The concern is that selecting him there made him my RB1 and he may not be posting those numbers in 2013.
-What was the best pick of the draft? (by another owner)
I missed Chris Givens still being on the board all the way down at 12.12 which is fantastic value there. In my opinion, he is the #1 WR in St.Louis and is going to be very productive at such a low price.
-What was the biggest reach of the draft? (by another owner)
Pierre Garcon at 4.2 was the 13th WR off the board. I count at least 10-12 WRs over the next couple of rounds who are better options.
-Any tips you can give to an owner drafting in a dynasty league for the first time?
Draft young. There are plenty of owners who fall into the trap of taking older players with the idea they are going to be the team to win it the first year. While this may work out, it is no guarantee and you can compete just as well with a younger roster. The problem is you have saddled yourself with players who will only see their value decrease and be stuck in a rebuild situation almost immediately.
Who do you think had the best draft and why? (by another owner)
Carl has positioned himself perhaps the best with a solid starting group and good upside depth while keeping this concept in mind. The older players on this squad are Andre and AP – both of whom are still highly productive and are not yet close to the finish line of their careers. Backup options like D.Rich, Stephen Hill, Sid Rice are solid choices with plenty of potential to outproduce their draft positions. Nicks and Bowe do bring some potential risk, however both were drafted lower than their potential production. Overall this team should have one of the better lineups with good overall value to work with over the long term.
Brian Luzier (1.05)
-What do you think was your best pick?
RG3 in the 5th. Someone who has the potential to be the highest scoring player in the league in the 5th round? That’s unreal value. If he’s only top 10 its a good value. If he’s top 3 it’s a steal.
-What pick do you feel you reached on/aren’t comfortable with?
The pick I’m least comfortable with is Forte in the second. He has a lot of potential as shown in 2011, but injuries and possible coaching changes, plus the complete lack of RZ touches tell me he could be thrown into the same tier as J Stew pretty soon. Another reason this makes me so uncomfortable is because I paired him with D Murray, another injury prone back. Hopefully at least one is healthy all the time.
-What was the best pick of the draft? (by another owner)
Both the R Wilson and Kaep picks bugged me because I was hoping to get them either that round or the next. The fact that Kaep was taken a full round later makes him the best pick of the draft. It’s very early in the offseason and what not, but if he continues to electrify this will put my RG3 pick in the 5th to shame.
-What was the biggest reach of the draft? (by another owner)
Definitely Alfred Morris at 2.07 by Lear. The talent is there, no doubt, but the questions surrounding Shanny and his role in the offense means I wouldn’t touch him til a couple of rounds later.
-Any tips you can give to an owner drafting in a dynasty league for the first time?
Assemble your “dream team” on paper. Pick your ideal QB, RB, WR, and TE at each “tier” you’ll be starting (ie 1 RB1, 1 RB2). Write down their ADPs. Use your picks (both future rookie and start-up) to trade up or down as necessary to attain picks around where those players “should” be drafted. This approach allows you to enter the draft with a real plan, and gives you plenty of time to execute. Good luck!
Who do you think had the best draft and why? (by another owner)
My favorite team is Carl’s. He has a solid group of RBs with some high upside guys, and a strong core of WRs bolstered by some of my favorite lottery tickets (like Stephen Hill and Sidney Rice). Between Wilson and Cutler he’ll have a startable QB each week. The fact he has Kyle Rudolph is just gravy in my book.
Steve Lear (1.06)
-What do you think was your best pick?
Colin Kaepernick @ 6.07. In games that he started this year he averaged just over 20.25 FPPG. That puts him right at QB7. He is clearly the QB of the future and with his first 10 starts under his belt he should come back with a ton of confidence. His ceiling is easily top 3 at his position, and it didn’t cost me a high draft pick.
-What pick do you feel you reached on/aren’t comfortable with?
I took the 18th TE in the draft. Robert Housler clearly has no right being my TE1 but I wanted to grab someone that was young with tangibles. He can get down the field quickly and showed that he has decent hands last year. He is the best pass catching TE on the team and hopefully will get more chances next year. I really need to address this position further through the rookie draft (hopefully Ertz or Eifert)
-What was the best pick of the draft? (by another owner)
I would have to say C.J. Spiller at 2.05. Chase really stole him at that position. With a new head coach coming into town there is going to be a little pressure to win now. The best way to win games is to have your best player in the game. Spiller is the Bills best player by a mile and Doug Marrone should lean heavily on Spiller both in the running and passing game. Great pick as the RB9 taken in the draft.
-What was the biggest reach of the draft? (by another owner)
Josh Gordon. I am not completely sold on him especially over guys like Maclin, Brown, Bowe, Shorts, and to some extent Stevie J, Austin and DX. Its a bold move that could pay off but I thought he could have been had at least two rounds later.
-Any tips you can give to an owner drafting in a dynasty league for the first time?
Have fun. Don’t value youth too much. Though it is nice you want to think in 3 year blocks. If a solid veteran can help your team for the foreseeable future it may be wiser to pick him over an inconsistent second year player. Secondly youre not redrafting your team after the season is over so make sure you do your due diligence in preparing for a dynasty draft. You shouldn’t hesitate to reach on a player that you have ranked high.
-Who do you think had the best draft and why? (by another owner)
Its pretty close between two owners (not going to name the other to inflate any egos) here but I would lean Chase because his team has less holes. He was able to land a QB, RB, and a WR that have a shot every year to lead each position in fantasy scoring. That is tough to do. Spiller fell into his lap at 2.05 after selecting Julio in the first round. CJ?K is an unknown but in the 3rd round he is worth the risk. Sproles is a very good RB3/FLEX play. He has filled up on depth at WR and RB and has a solid tandem at TE. Top to bottom a tough opponent week in and week out.
Daniel Heins (1.07)
-What do you think was your best pick?
3rd round for Fitzgerald is awesome. 29 and still an uber elite talent with any selblence of a QB at the helm. They WILL get a QB and they WILL feed him the rock and like every other year before last, he will put up top 10 numbers and I will end up with a WR1 in the mid 3rd.
-What pick do you feel you reached on/aren’t comfortable with?
Easy one here. Beanie in at 7.07. Honestly Beanie could be considered a reach at any point during this draft. I am not very happy with myself for this pick, but the fact remains that AZ will be focusing almost all their efforts on OL and QB. If, and it’s a big if.. .. but if Beanie stays healthy he is all but a lock to produce at mid to high RB2 #s and since I did not focus on RB until late, I needed to take some chances.
-What was the best pick of the draft? (by another owner)
Vernon Davis at 9.03 is crazy. Yeah the dude had a down year and he was probably coming off the board too early last year(in the 4th or 5th), but you just saw what this guy is capable of in the NFC Championship game. Kaepernick will learn that this guy is a freak of nature and will get him more involved. Great pick by Jeff_DFW in my humble opinion.
-What was the biggest reach of the draft? (by another owner)
This was a tough one as I really like how this draft shaped up. A lot of great picks and smart people. I will go Chase’s pick of CJ Spiller at 2.05. We all know Spiller is electric, but he is just way too small to be an everydown back and if I am proven wrong I will eat my words. He will spend just as much time on the sidelines nursing injuries as he will be putting up random 25 point games on 15 carries. Spiller’s best chance at CONSISTENT production(which is what I would want at 2.05) will be if Buffalo keeps him between 12-15 touches/game with 6 of those being receptions. If that happens he might live up to this draft position. I think this is where CJ’s value is, but it’s not where it will end up.
-Any tips you can give to an owner drafting in a dynasty league for the first time?
Do your homework. Dynasty is about VALUE and not about last year’s production. Production needs to be apart of the equation, but value is more important when playing chess VS checkers. Be flexible and be willing to jump on an opportunity if you see it.
Who do I think had the best draft?
JSCOTT did. Very VERY nice in my opinion. Really nice high end WRs with DT, Danario Alexander, and Marshall. Yeah DX is riskly but for a WR3… .. nice job. Jeff found some seriously good value at RB with MJD and Matthews at the turn 3.12/4.01. Then then added Reggie Bush later. He then stocked up on Cook/Finley/Fred Davis at TE. Nothing spectacular, but 3 guys that “could” have top 5-10 years. Just more value was added with Dalton and Romo. We all know Romo is underrated every year when he is in fact a pretty consistent top 5-10 QB1. I bow to you sir! Very nicely done.
Chase Wheetley (1.08)- Technical difficulties. We will get back to him someday…
Luke Grilli (1.09)
-What do you think was your best pick?
I love the Brady pick at 5.09. Tom Brady is a top tier QB and will be for the next 2-3 years. The Patriots know their window for a Super Bowl is closing more and more with each day Brady ages, so they will do all they can to put weapons around him. I will definitely need to address the QB situation in a year or two, but for now I have a Top 5 guy week to week.
-What pick do you feel you reached on/aren’t comfortable with?
Jordy Nelson at 4.04. Jordy has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, which is always a good thing, but we have only seen one great year from him. I would like to see some consistency before I anoint him as my WR2 for the next 3-4 years.taken a chance with Justin Blackmon.
-What was the best pick of the draft? (by another owner)
I’m a fan of Lamar Miller in the 10th round. It looks like Reggie Bush is on his way out of Miami and if you watched Hard Knocks, you know that Philbin is not a fan of Daniel Thomas. I expect Lamar Miller to flourish in the Miami offense moving forward.
-What was the biggest reach of the draft? (by another owner)
I’m not a fan of taking a guy who earned the starting job by default and Dajuan Harris is 2012′s version of that. Harris did not impress me that much and I think that the Packers will either look to bring back Cedric Benson (unlikely) or bring some else in to take over the RB1 duties.
-Any tips you can give to an owner drafting in a dynasty league for the first time?
Do your best to draft a good amount of youth and proven talent. While it is nice to say that you have a roster full of highly rated rookies, those guys don’t always turn into highly rated NFL players. 2013 could be a prime example of a lame duck year for rookies. Also, don’t rely on those rookies to start for you week to week right out of the gate. Justin Blackmon was usually taken as the 5th or 6th rookie off the board, but did not produce until the second half of the season. If you have a draft pick you don’t love, don’t be afraid to use it to sweeten a deal for a proven vet.
-Who do you think had the best draft?
Lear had a nice draft I think. While he went RB in rounds 1-3, he got 3 talented guys that should produce for the next 5-6 years. WRs are a bit weak, but he can mask that with his strength at RB. He can either keep his RBs and hope that they outscore other teams at that position, or move one of them to upgrade from Torrey Smith or Antonio Brown and get a true WR1. Finally, Kapernick has a small sample size, but that guy is electric. He should be able to put up Top 10 QB numbers for a while.
Carl Zabel (1.10)
-What do you think was your best pick?
I liked getting Nicks at 3.10 and Bowe at 6.03. Both players had down years in 2012, whether due to injury or poor QB play, that has lowered their value heading into 2013. I’m convinced that Nicks was never 100% in 2012. If he is 100% in 2013 and Manning bounces back, Nicks will be a steal at 3.10. If Bowe is smart and goes to a team that is the best fit for him and not necessarily the most money, he should get a QB upgrade from Cassel and Quinn. I think Bowe definitely has top 10 upside in the right situation. I will definitely take that at 6.03.
-What pick do you feel you reached on/aren’t comfortable with?
Russell Wilson – It’s not that I don’t like Wilson, I just feel like I almost made a “panic” pick here. RG3, Stafford, Ryan, and Brady were all picked in the 5 picks before my pick. I’m not sure he would have been around when it came back to me in round 7, but at the time I wasn’t real comfortable with the pick. I will definitely be interested to see where Wilson is being drafted in startups during the off season. I took him at 5.10 and I saw that he went at 5.03 in the DFW Industry Experts Mock.
-What was the best pick of the draft? (by another owner)
Larry Fitzgerald – I absolutely love Fitz at 3.07. His down year was definitely not because he is losing any ability. IMO, he is 1b to Calvin as far as the best WRs in the NFL. If Arians had been hired before we started this draft, I believe Fitz would have been drafted higher.
-What was the biggest reach of the draft? (by another owner)
I’m going with Mikel LeShoure. There were still a lot of good values at WRs available when LeShoure was taken at 4.11. IMO, I thought Bell looked like the better RB in Detroit, and I would expect him to get more chances going forward. I think Joe hit is analysis of the pick right on the head. If LeShoure is still the #1 in Detroit next year, he does do enough to be a middle of the pack RB2. But the risk is there that he will lose touches to either Bell or another RB that they might bring in.
-Any tips you can give an owner drafting in a dynasty league for the first time?
I would avoid the temptation to draft a QB or TE in the first couple of rounds. There is a lot of value to be had at the RB and WR position in rounds 2 and 3. WR is deep, but the RB talent falls off fast after the late 3rd round. There are some solid QBs and TEs that will be available in round 5 and later while you stock up on solid talent at WR/RB. QBs like Brady and Brees went in the late 4th/early 5th round, and TEs like Witten were going in the 7th Round. It is nice to have the production from a Rodgers/Cam or Gronk/Graham, but you can still get good production later in the draft while shoring up your RBs and WRs.
-Who do you think had the best draft and why? (by another owner)
I am going to go with Jeff. He has a good QB core with Cam, Ben, and Schaub. If Bradshaw and McFadden both stay healthy, he has a solid set of RBs with Rice and M. Bush. His WRs have some question marks with Britt, Jennings, Wallace, and Jackson, but if they end up in the right situation, it could be a formidable group of WRs. I can’t imagine that V. Davis will be invisible next year so he has 2 solid TEs in Davis and Gates.
John Evans (1.11)
-What do you think was your best pick?
Ryan Williams at 11.11 could be a steal. Bruce Arians loves him and there is little competition for carries unless Beanie Wells is forgiven, AND signs new deal after 2013. -What pick do you feel you reached on/aren’t comfortable with?
Since I picked him at 4.02 the specter of Pierre Garcon’s foot has reappeared, so now I’m wondering if I should have taken Torrey Smith or Eric Decker
-What was the best pick of the draft? (by another owner)
T.Y. Hilton at 9.01 (Jay). A little undersized, but Hilton was a Top 25 receiver as a rookie and this burner should improve along with his quarterback.
-What was the biggest reach of the draft? (by another owner)
Nothing jumps out at me, but 5.03 is sooner than I expected Greg Jennings to go off the board, as a slightly creaky WR without a team (for now). Still has WR1 upside in the right situation, though.
-Any tips you can give to an owner drafting in a dynasty league for the first time?
Think through your trades. Redraft is a “re-do” every year. Not in dynasty. Nothing’s worse than watching a breakout player you traded carry another owner’s team for years to come.
-Who do you think had the best draft and why? (by another owner)
I like Carl’s team best. Cutler and Wilson offer ample upside and with Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, he’s rock-solid at RB, at least for the short term. With Andre Johnson, Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Bowe to anchor his receiving corps, you have to think Carl is in great shape there. The cherry on top is Kyle Rudolph at TE — with Gonzalez and Witten gone or going before long, the Red Zone Reindeer might be a top 5 value at his position in dynasty.
Jeff Katz (1.12)
-What do you think was your best pick?
MJD @3.12 – Mid first rounder last season at he end of the 3rd, probably should have at least gone mid second.
-What pick do you feel you reached on/aren’t comfortable with?
Danario Alexander @6.01 – He’ll produce at this level if not higher but others don’t seem to be as high on him so probably could have waited until the next turn.
What was the best pick of the draft? (by another owner)
Brady @5.09 - Still has 2-3 years of top 3 QB numbers to go, comparable to Rodgers who went in the first. Obviously age is the difference but Brady normally comes off the board around the 3rd. Honorable mention, AD @1.10.
-What was the biggest reach of the draft? (by another owner)
DuJuan Harris @6.12 - With talk of GB bringing in a FA RB, plus the likes of Ballard, Ingram and even BJGE still on the board I thought this was the biggest reach.
-Any tips you can give to an owner drafting in a dynasty league for the first time?
Too many owners draft solely for the future. You also want to be competitive out of the gates so don’t ignore the “redraft” studs even if they only have a few years left at the top. That allows you to get production now and still have time to get a solid replacement lined up either via the rookie drafts or trading. Don’t ignore the vets.
-Who do you think had the best draft and why? (by another owner)
For getting good value early and late, getting players who are producing now and will continue for a while into the future and for balancing said talent at all positions I’d ranks the other top 3 drafters in the following order… Carl, Chase, Luke.
