FANEX Analysis Draft – Making the Turn
By Alan Satterlee, DFW Senior Writer and Co-Owner, @Speedkills_DFW
// DFW / REDRAFT 2016 SERIES
I highlighted the start of the FANEX analysis experts draft here a few days ago. The FANEX has several big industry names and participation in FANEX requires every pick include analysis. You may want to follow along — here is the link to the picks and analysis on the league-hosting site MyFantasyLeague.Com. With the first three picks (out of the 1.04 spot), I went WR/WR to start the draft with Julio Jones and Mike Evans, and then with Eddie Lacy in round three. Here are my next seven picks through round 10 and some other highlights (but again a fun draft to follow along in terms of ADP and strategy ideas).
4.09 RB Carlos Hyde: A good need and value intersection here. I don’t want to have a bunch of Niners on the roster, but Hyde could be very fantasy productive under Chip Kelly. Personally, I have Hyde with a 3rd round grade on my board, two rounds better than LeSean McCoy, C.J. Anderson and Matt Jones who went before Hyde.
OTHER: It’s PPR and Danny Woodhead likely deserves more premium than he gets some times — and Carlos Panizo went with Woodhead in the last pick of the 4th round .
5.04 RB Duke Johnson: To me this is all about running back value here, especially in this format with no transactions. While receiver can be approached here some with depth. Duke could easily have 75 receptions — a back with a high floor and high ceiling, Johnson should basically provide a minimum 10-point buffer with his receiving work each week. Nice to ding the RB position too with two teams going WR/WR/WR/WR.
OTHER: We debated Dion Lewis in a recent DFW article and he gets the love here by Chris Rito/Mike Nazarek with the 5.02 pick, while Thomas Rawls drops to 5.06. Tyler Lockett was also spotlighted /debated in the same recent DFW article and Lockett draws a 5th round premium, as does Kevin White.
6.09 WR Sterling Shepard: It can be risky to draft rookies (less and less nowadays), but Sterling Shepard looks like a safe PPR pick here and with a ton of upside as well. For starters, the Giants pass a TON under Ben McAdoo and that will continue. Shepard is already inked in as a starter, and ODB and others alike are saying Shepard could have a chance to be rookie of the year. I am buying into the hype.
OTHER: It was a strong wide receiver round with 7 of 12 picks in round six as teams work to round our their starting set of receivers.
7.04 TE Coby Fleener The New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees paired up with Coby Fleener seems like a perfect match. The Saints didn’t give Fleener $36M over five years for a bit role and obviously the tight end can dominate in this offense (even a marginal talent and old player in Ben Watson went off for 74/825/6 in this offense last year finishing as TE6 — I am not sure how that isn’t Fleener’s floor for 2016).
OTHER: While round six was a high receiver round, round seven was a high running back round (half of the picks). Additionally, after Rob Gronkowski (1.12), Jordan Reed (3rd), and Greg Olsen (5th), the next three tight ends went here in round seven in Delanie Walker, Coby Fleener and Travis Kelce.
8.09 Dorial Green-Beckham: To me, DGB stands out as the only receiver left in a tier (on my list anyway) and he’s great value here in the late 8th. It depends if he breaks out of course but I like his chances. After not playing for a year, DGB showed his talent at the next level as a rookie last year with a solid 32/549/4 season. There’s no reason he can’t double these stats as the featured Tennessee receiver this year, collecting deep scores off play action and being a weapon particularly in the red zone with his size. While I doubt he is a reception magnet, I nonetheless really like DGB in this best ball format to collect on some big games. No worries about having to earn his starting job either with the silly Tajae Sharpe starter talk, simply some spring motivation.
OTHER: Time will tell if Mike Nease spazzed on adding his potential Thomas Rawls’ handcuff in adding C.J. Prosise here in the 8th round, but there are endless handcuffs still available.
9.04 TE Eric Ebron: I am going to join Carlos Panizo and double down on tight end. It’s a true opportunity to differentiate here with two potentially elite tight ends, and severely ding the position as well. I love me some Eric Ebron this year — there is so much opportunity with Calvin Johnson having retired and Ebron has plenty of talent for OC Jim Bob Cooter to devise an impact for maximizing. Ebron showed a nice leap last year (and tight ends take time to develop historically), and Ebron could break out here in year three as that opportunity meets talent. It also allows me to go with just two tight ends if I’d like (and Ebron / Coby Fleener could be a difference-making duo) and tight ends can be flexed here too.
OTHER: Theo Riddick is getting the love after his 80 receptions last year, drawing a 9th-round grade by Tony Holm.
10.09 Derrick Henry: To me Derrick Henry is the type of pick who can instantly win a league — one injury to DeMarco Murray (who is injury prone) and Henry is a potential top ten back. Henry also has value regardless as a red zone weapon and should be busy regardless (you can’t run “exotic smashmouth” football without him getting liberally involved. There is also the possibility that Henry is simply too talented to not eventually just take Murray’s job.
OTHER: A Justin Forsett Rotoworld blurb came out today that he is the “clear lead dog” and perhaps that inspired his quick 10th round selection by Tony Holm as he went back-to-back running back. I mentioned Forsett’s 2016 cap hit in this Show Me the Money article — Forsett is the game’s 15th-highest paid running back for 2016.
That’s the latest — again click here if you’d like to follow along.