By: Luke Grilli (@LGrilli88)

Everybody loves finding the steal of the draft. If you we able to grab Randall Cobb in the later rounds of your draft, you found yourself a 2013 Top 10 caliber PPR receiver at a discount price. Most leagues are won and lost in the middle and late rounds, so keep an eye on these guys going into your draft or your off season. Per usual, I will be using DFW’s Dynasty Startup Draft ADP Data, and using a 12 team PPR scoring standard, to give value to these players.

Andy Dalton: ADP QB15
Dalton is being drafted as a high end QB2 in this scenario, but I think there are plenty of players ahead of him who deserve to be pushed down the list (more on them later). Since Dalton came into the league as a 2nd round pick out of TCU in 2011, he has put up two solid seasons and finished right around the QB15 spot. Other than AJ Green, the Bengals have always lacked a second weapon for Dalton to throw to, yet his numbers have steadily improved from Year 1 to Year 2. In the draft, Cinci was able to grab blue chip TE  Tyler Eifert and a great pass catching option out of the backfield in Giovani Bernard. On top of those two, 2012 3rd round pick Mohamed Sanu, will be 100% recovered from a foot injury that landed him on the IR after a few impressive weeks in 2012.

With the draft and returning players, I have Dalton pegged as my QB11, passing over Tony Romo, Ryan Tannehill and Eli Manning.  The fact that he is 25 makes him a better option, in my eyes, in comparison to Manning and Romo. While I simply think he is a better fantasy QB than Ryan Tannehill. In the long term, I see Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees moving onto greener pastures (retirement), giving Dalton the chance to move up to the second tier of signal callers in fantasy football. Invest now and make a pitch to his current owner. He is probably a back up and could be had for a marginal positional player or a low first, high 2nd round rookie draft pick.

Josh Freeman: ADP QB24
Josh Freeman is one of dynasty fantasy football’s most polarizing players. In 2010, he had a solid season of 3,451 yards, 25 TDs and 6 INTs. Owners went wild over the 2nd year QBs stats (yours truly included) and made heavy investments in trading for him to be their QB1 in 2011 and on. Well, in 2011, Freeman took a huge step back and lowered his TD total down to 16, and increased his INTs up to 22. Not really what the owners who made a significant investment in him expected. 2012 was the first year that Greg Schiano was in charge, and it seemed to light a fire under Freeman. Yardage and TD totals were career highs and he was able to bring his INT total down to 17, finishing as a QB1/QB2 in most leagues.

The biggest issue with Freeman in 2012, and throughout his career, is his inconsistency. From Weeks 6-14, Freeman put up at least two TDs all but once. Owners who rode that hot hand were rewarded with fantasy playoff and championship stinkers. Cue the anger for Josh Freeman yet again and the rumblings that Mike Glennon will take the starting job. In the end, Freeman is the guy in Tampa. I know that the Bucs are letting him play out his rookie contract, but that isn’t the worst thing in the world. Freeman will come into 2013 motivated for the big money contract either from TB or somewhere else, and has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Vincent Jackon’s arrival helped Mike Williams turn into a legitimate WR2 and gave Freeman a true #1 WR to target. Plus, don’t forget about Doug Martin who broke out as one of the best overall running backs in the NFL during his rookie season last year. Long story short, Freeman is being drafted as a QB24, but I have him locked in as my QB18, who will put up serviceable weeks as a QB1 against weak defenses.

Shane Vereen: ADP RB32
The 2012 AFC Divisional Playoff Game vs. the Texans was Vereen’s coming out party as he tallied over 100 yards from scrimmage and 3 TDs. As a 2nd round pick out of Cal in 2011, many had high expectations for Vereen to supplant Kevin Faulk as the 3rd down specialist in the pass happy New England offense. Unfortunately for Vereen, preseason injuries and Danny Woodhead kept him from being active, or a factor, in most games during 2011 and 2012. Now in 2013, Woodhead has moved onto San Diego and Vereen is next in line to pick up the 3rd down duties.

Vereen is more athletic, faster and quicker than any other scat back New England has ever had. Kevin Faulk and Woodhead were never known for their speed, but more their ability to protect their QBs and have a reliable pair of hands. Vereen will bring a dynamic skill set that will only improve the Patriot offense. Right now, Vereen really has legitimate value as a weekly contributor in PPR leagues (where Danny Woodhead sneakily became a Top 25 RB), and an injury/bye week fill in in standard scoring leagues. His value may still be somewhat high if his owner remembers the playoff game against Houston, but if you have extra WR depth and need another RB, Vereen can be had.

LaMichael James: ADP RB54
Even by being inactive for most of 2012, LaMichael James may have proved to be the least injury prone of all the HBs on the 49ers roster. Frank Gore is known to be dealing with an injury at any given time and hit the dreaded 30 years old mark in May, Kendall Hunter is coming off an achilles injury and Marcus Lattimore will probably sit out 2014 while rehabbing from a nasty knee injury. In 2013, I expect Gore to be the lead back, but if he goes down, I feel that LaMichael James is a better play than Kendall Hunter. James showed he could be dominant in college while at Oregon, and I think those skills will translate into a solid pro career. LaMichael James is coming in as the RB54, but I think he has skills, and is in a situation with the potential for catches and carries, to eventually be a top 35 RB.

Rod Streater: ADP WR74
Rod Streater could start the 2013 season as a starting WR, lining up across from Denarius Moore. With Darrius Heyward Bey leaving for Indi. and Jacoby Ford struggling to stay healthy year after year, I really like Streater to produce as a low end WR3. If Matt Flynn can prove that he is a NFL-caliber QB, then maybe Streater becomes more of a bonafide WR3 that can start for you week in and week out. During his rookie year in 2012, Streater showed some real potential as the 4th pass catching option in Oakland , hauling in 39 catches for 584 catches and 3 TDs in his rookie season. With the departure of DHB and Brandon Myers, I expect those numbers to come right around 55 catches, 875 yards and 6 TDs.

Jonathan Baldwin: ADP WR82
Baldwin is headed into his 3rd year as a pro and this is generally where we see WRs take the next step into becoming solid players in the NFL. We saw it last year with Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas (granted Peyton Manning had a little bit to do with that) and Dez Bryant. Each player went from being a question mark as a pro, to solid NFL wide receivers. Now, Jonathan Baldwin was a first round pick in 2011 and super athletic while at Pitt, yet hasn’t caught on to the pro game yet. It is no secret that he can be a diva at times, but no one can deny his athletic ability.  While I don’t think that Baldwin will have the meteoric rise that Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant had, I truly believe that Andy Reid’s game plan will allow for Baldwin to thrive. I expect a state line of 60 catches, 800 yards and 7 TDs. Yes, these are pretty high numbers considering  Baldwin has never had  more than five catches in one game, but I have faith in the “3rd year wide receiver break out” menatlity and the additions of Alex Smith and Andy Reid.

Coby Fleener: ADP TE23
Right now, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen’s fantasy stocks are limited as they steal looks from each other, Reggie Wayne is still around and Andrew Luck grows as a passer in the NFL. However, I think you should pounce on Fleener while his stock is low. Reggie Wayne will be turning 35 during the 2013 season and will eventually start to drop off. On top of that, both Allen and Fleener should grow with Andrew Luck and develop into his favorite targets. I think that both of Indi’s TEs have a real chance to be stars in this league, ala the TE situation in New England. In the early years, it may be difficult to start each guy week to week, but good things come to those who wait. I expect Fleener to improve off his 2012 season, but 2014 and beyond should be the years we really start to see him blossom.

Hit me up in the comments or on Twitter and let me know what you think or if there are any players I’ve missed.

Courtesy of  http://www.thefantasyfootballauction.com/

If this is your first auction draft, then you may be wondering exactly what to expect heading into your draft.  Whether you pick your squad online or live, there are a few basic guidelines I suggest you follow in order to put yourself in a strong position to acquire a solid team.

Since you are reading this then I take it that you are interested in performing well in your auction draft.  You are being proactive and looking for ways to improve your skills.  You may read many articles before you do your draft looking for secrets and words of wisdom to help you win your league which is a good thing.  One thing I have seen which drives me crazy is “experts” that write an article with strategy and they mention things about you being lucky.  If you read that immediately leave the site.  Would a stock market expert say recommend that you get lucky as a way to succeed with their product?  Of course you will need some luck in order to win any pool.  How do you harness luck and use it as a tangible strategy to bring into your draft?  Obviously it’s impossible.  If we knew how to control luck then we’d all be billionaires and we could play fantasy football with real football teams.  My point is I can’t trust the credibility of someone that says you should try and get lucky in order to succeed.  I’m going to tell you that the next few keys will help you potentially create your own luck by putting you in the best situations to draft a winning team.

Alright, let’s get into some real winning ideas.

DO YOUR HOMEWORK

This may seem obvious but you’d be surprised how many people there are that play fantasy football that don’t prepare before a draft.  I
think you should read as much information as you can.  I also highly recommend doing as many free mock drafts on sites like Yahoo or ESPN that you can. For me, mocks are the best tool you can use to prepare.  These mocks will allow you to spot trends in values for particular players.  I always look at the results to look for players that appear to be over and under valued.  I can see which players will tend to be targeted more aggressively in drafts and ones that will tend to be overlooked.  The more mocks you do, the easier it becomes to spot patterns.

The one problem with online mocks is that many participants leave once they draft their starting lineup.  This makes it hard to gauge the proper values of bench players since robots begin making picks once the user leaves.  I try and get users to stay as long as possible to get a sense of the prices for the bench guys.  That’s important because your bench will win you your pool.  If it’s not deep then you will never be able to withstand bye weeks, injuries and inconsistent play by your starters.

CREATE YOUR OWN VALUES

If you were to build a house would you just pick one that you like and copy it exactly?  Most likely you are going to take aspects of many homes and use them to build your ideal dwelling.  Auction values are no different.  You will not completely agree with any one fantasy expert so why would you their entire rankings?  This ties into doing your homework.  The more values you read and more mocks you do the more detailed and individualized you can make your rankings.  You can use the trends you have noticed to create a more accurate ranking than your competitors.  So as you watch your buddies overspending on players you wanted to avoid you will know the values will be ripe for the picking later in your draft.

HAVE A PLAN A, PLAN B, PLAN C,…… 

In the words of the wise and ever insightful Mike Tyson, “Everyone has a plan ‘till they get punched in the mouth.”  How true Mike, how true.  Everybody will have a rough idea of what they want to accomplish in their draft.  Drafts, however, never play out the way you want them too.  Maybe you banked on getting a particular running back only to find that four others thought the same thing.  Now there is a bidding war.  Do you overspend in order to get your man or do you have a fallback plan and know where you’ll spend your money should you pass?  A good drafter will have multiple scenarios and budgets planned out and know what outcomes to expect in each and every scenario.

Now what do I mean by budget?  I assign a dollar value for every spot on my roster.  For example, I don’t  budget more than one dollar for each of my kicker and defense which is fairly standard.  I also don’t typically budget much more than 15 dollars for my bench positions.  I try and spend the bulk of my money on starters and then get high upside, low cost players for my bench.  Now if I find myself getting starting players for less than I budgeted, then I can allot that extra coin elsewhere.  Maybe it goes to the bench positions.  The more research you do, the more easily you will be able to make your mid-draft adjustments.

I recommend having a few scenarios that are quite different from one another but still give you a team that you think you can win with.  The reason is because crazy things can happen in your draft.  You may have to change your plans a few times because players you want to target simply are too expensive for your budget so you will be forced to look for more affordable options.

WHO TO NOMINATE?

This is the area that makes auction drafts fun because gamesmanship comes into play.  The general thought is you nominate players that you don’t want on your team.  The thought is that it forces other drafters to spend their money on players that you don’t want in the hopes that it creates values for you later on in the draft because you’ll have more money later than your opponents.

I will say I like this strategy.  However, the more experienced you get at auctions and the more you draft with the same people you can tweak this strategy to your advantage.  For instance, I might nominate a player that I believe everyone thinks I’d have no interest in hoping they think I don’t really want him. Then people may be hesitant to try and outbid me because they are scared that I will stop bidding at anytime and they will get stuck with that player.

You also have to really watch for potential good value players that are available.  For example if you see that there are a lot of wide receivers available that are around the $20-$25 range then I will nominate the players in that group I don’t think have the highest upsides.  My hope is that you will force other owners to fill roster spots with wide receivers so they won’t bid when they players you like finally get nominated much later.  By doing this you can really manipulate the prices of certain players in your favor and create values.

You should also pay close attention to what all your competitors’ rosters are looking like.  If you see that most other owners have a quarterback drafted then maybe you want to wait and take one later when there is less competition for them.  You can adjust your budget and allot more funds for skill position players.

What we’ve just covered are a few simple guidelines that will apply very effectively to any auction draft.  They are versatile and will get you in a position to do well, maybe even win a league for you.  However, like any guideline, they are open for interpretation.  The more experienced you get at auction drafting the more you will find yourself creating your own guidelines or personalizing the ones you like.

That’s the beauty of fantasy sports.  There is no right or wrong way to do things.

The Lull Before the Storm – The AFC West

By Leo Paciga  -  @FFHoudini

So here we are in the middle of June with the official beginning of summer only a few days away.  In addition to the start of summer, I also consider the middle of June to be the proverbial lull before the NFL storm; a storm that starts up at the end of July with the official commencement of NFL training camps across the country.  This current lack of NFL activity, however, provides us with the perfect opportunity to set the fantasy football table for dynasty owners by identifying which players to watch, what training camp battles to focus on, and what coaching changes will impact fantasy production.  In the next few articles, I’ll be trying to offer some coordinates for your fantasy football GPS from a dynasty perspective to help you navigate straight through to the next destination…..NFL Training Camp.  I’ll be doing these breakdowns division by division and this week I’ll kick things off with AFC West.

Denver Broncos  -  What to Keep an Eye On:

Running Backs  -  The crystal ball remains cloudy even after the release of Willis McGahee.  The best way to describe the Denver running back situation is by saying there is a ton of potential for fantasy points, but those points are convoluted and buried knee deep in RBBC mud.  From a fantasy football perspective, this positional battle is the one to focus on in late July and early August.  Here’s what we know from OTAs:

• Ronnie Hillman  -  Ronnie Hillman is entering his second NFL season and according to reports, Hillman looked quick and explosive throughout OTAs and worked primarily with the first team.  Hillman has also added some additional weight this off season (15 lbs) to help offset the grind of a long NFL schedule.  It’s been reported that Ronnie Hillman finished his rookie campaign south of 180 pounds, so the additional muscle should help him in the long term.  Just what role Hillman will play in the Denver offense in 2013 will come to light once training camp is under way.

• Montee Ball  -  Many fantasy football pundits expect this rookie and former Wisconsin Badger to take over as the lead back in Denver during training camp.  Montee Ball certainly has the mental and physical make up to be a “bell cow” RB at the NFL level and the news from OTAs was primarily positive.  Ball took some first team reps behind Hillman and looked solid, but there are still many questions to answer.  A few of those questions include just how quickly can Montee Ball adjust to the complex signal calling of Peyton Manning and will HC John Fox trust a rookie to protect his Hall of Fame quarterback in pass protection?  Again, this is a situation to monitor closely throughout training camp.

• Knowshon Moreno  -  Knowshon Moreno appears to be the forgotten man once again in his NFL career.  Still relatively young (26 in July), Moreno finished 2012 in strong fashion averaging 22 carries and 86 yards on the ground over the final 6 games of the regular season.  Moreno is rehabbing from a knee injury sustained during the 2012 playoffs and part of his recovery even included a stem cell procedure.  The Broncos will likely bring Knowshon Moreno along slowly, but if healthy, he’s a player you’ll need to be aware of if either Hillman or Ball struggle.

Wide Receivers  -  The addition of Wes Welker introduces a whole new dynamic to the potent Denver passing attack.  It will be important to monitor just how well (and quickly) Welker acclimates himself to his new home and the impact that could have on Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas.

Diamond in the Rough  -  He’s struggled with health issues and taken some time to develop, but third year Tight End Julius Thomas appears to be ready to take the next step.  Reports out of OTAs claim that Thomas finally looks healthy and explosive and his athleticism was evident early and often.  At 6’5″ and 245 lbs, Julius Thomas is an imposing target and with so many options for opposing defenses to worry about, Thomas could be an afterthought in cover packages.  Even though he’s currently third on the Tight End depth chart, a solid training could open the door for this former Portland State basketball star.

San Diego Chargers  -  What to Keep an Eye On:

Health  -  Sure, new Head Coach Mike McCoy and new OC Ken Whisenhunt create an interesting dynamic for the Chargers in 2013, but my main focus will be on the heath of a few key players – specifically Ryan Mathews and Antonio Gates.  After two straight seasons filled with injuries and poor production, Ryan Mathews once again finds himself with a prime opportunity to anchor a San Diego rushing attack in 2013.  Antonio Gates has also spent the last few seasons battling lingering foot issues and it’s evident that this once prolific TE is slowing down with age.  The interesting thing with Antonio Gates, however, was his frustration level last month over being named a mere number 73 on NFL Network’s Top 100 players.  Even at the age of 33, I’m intrigued by an angry Antonio Gates with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove in 2013.  Simply stated, a refocused and healthy Antonio Gates could represent a prefect opportunity for dynasty owners in need of a relatively inexpensive option at TE for the upcoming season.

Wide Receivers -  Keep an eye on Danario Alexander, Vincent Brown and Keenan Allen as all three will play key roles in the San Diego passing attack.  I’ve stated many times on DFW that I love Danario Alexander’s skill set and athleticism, but let’s face it; the poster child for repetitive knee surgeries does not instill confidence in his owners when talking about durability.  Vincent Brown had dynasty owners everywhere salivating last summer before breaking his ankle in a preseason game and recent reports say Brown appeared to be healthy and close to full strength during OTAs.  Eight months since tearing his PCL, there are still some question marks surrounding rookie Keenan Allen’s health although the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that Allen, “ran faster” and “cut more sharply” than he did at last month’s rookie mini-camp.  There’s a lot to like about this trio of San Diego WRs if they’re healthy and training camp should revel who is ready to provide points for your fantasy squad right out of the gate.

Oakland Raiders  -  What to Keep an Eye On:

Darren McFadden  -  Is Darren McFadden healthy?  It’s a question we seem to ask every season, but when he’s healthy, McFadden is a fantasy football force to be reckoned with on a weekly basis.  It’s that huge upside that keeps us coming back for more…at least for the dynasty owners (myself included) that love sleepless nights and gnawing off our fingernails.  The news from OTAs was positive concerning Darren McFadden who suffered a season-ending Lisfranc injury in his right foot during week 7 of last season.  The Oakland RB was said to be running, catching, cutting and doing every drill on the practice field all while showcasing that trademark McFadden burst.

New Blocking Scheme  -  We saw the impact former OC Greg Knapp had on the Raiders offense last season when he implemented his zone blocking scheme.  Yes, Darren McFadden is always battling some type of injury, but last season McFadden’s biggest stumbling block was running behind a blocking scheme that fought against his very instincts as a running back.  Patience as a runner is a prime ingredient for a successful zone blocking scheme and McFadden prefers to make quick decisions while creating angles and fearlessly blazing past defenders (when healthy).  Last season McFadden had issues identifying the correct holes and as a result he bounced too many runs outside hoping to find a shred of daylight and that led to an abundance of plays for no gain.  Enter new OC Greg Olson, new Offensive Line Coach Tony Sparano and a return to the “gap and power” blocking scheme that was so successful for the Raiders in the past.  Tony Sparano may have missed the mark in his previous positions, but he is rock solid as an Offensive Line Coach.  Watch for the early signs of a vastly improved Raider rushing attack once Oakland’s training camp gets underway.

Latavius Murray  -  Any running back backing up Darren McFadden on a depth chart should be on every owner’s fantasy football radar.  Murray, a 6’2″, 223 lb. rookie turned in an impressive 4.38 forty and 1.48 ten-yard split at Central Florida’s Pro Day and impressed HC Dennis Allen during OTAs.  Latavius Murray has terrific straight-line speed and he has the size and ability to be a tough inside runner, a perfect combination for new OC Greg Olson’s gap-blocking scheme.  Latavius Murray did miss the most recent mini-camp with a sore foot, but he is a “must watch” once training camp officially begins.

Quarterback Play  -  OTAs were not kind to any of the Oakland quarterbacks as newly acquired Matt Flynn, rookie Tyler Wilson and Terrelle Pryor all struggled with accuracy and getting the ball down-field.  Of the three QBs, rookie Tyler Wilson reportedly looked the best, but this is certainly a situation to monitor from the start of training camp.

Diamond in the Rough  -  Another TE to keep an eye on during training camp is Oakland’s David Ausberry.  A former WR at USC, Ausberry seems to have come into 2013 ready to step up and be a key contributor in the Raider passing game.  In fact, Steve Corkran of the Contra Costa Times reported that, “Ausberry has been seeing “a ton of action” in the early going of OTAs.”  Ausberry has the genuine potential to create yardage after the catch and he brings a nice combination of size and athleticism to the TE position.  With his WR experience, Ausberry could create some serious mismatches for the Oakland passing attack and could easily become a reliable target for an inexperienced quarterback should Tyler Wilson win the starting QB job.  David Ausberry is definitely a player that dynasty owners should track during training camp.

Kansas City Chiefs  -  What to Keep an Eye on:

The New Head Coach  -  Andy Reid brings a proven track record and some interesting offensive tendencies to Kansas City.  In the last 15 seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs have had 6 different Head Coaches (including Andy Reid), the last two being the “quirky” and somewhat difficult Todd Haley and the defensive minded Romeo Crennel.  It’s my belief that Andy Reid is exactly what the doctor ordered to breathe some life back into the Kansas City offense and that should become even more evident once the reports start flowing from training camp.

Jamaal Charles  -  We’ve all seen what Andy Reid was able to do for the offensive production of LeSean McCoy and Brian Westbrook while he was with the Eagles.  With that in mind, Jamaal Charles could be in line for the biggest fantasy production of his career and my guess is that early reports from training camp will support that hypothesis.

Alex Smith/Dwayne Bowe  -  Alex Smith may not be a world beater at quarterback, but he’s far better than the collection of noodle armed “gun-slingers” Dwayne Bowe has had to deal with during his career.   Since coming into the league in 2007, these are the quarterbacks Dwyane Bowe has watched line up under center in Kansas City – Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn…….excuse me for a second while I throw up a little in my mouth.  Alex Smith, even with all his shortcomings, should rejuvenate the Kansas City aerial attack and Dwayne Bowe will most likely be the happiest man in Kansas City.   Keep a watchful eye on the chemistry that develops between Alex Smith and Dwayne Bowe during training camp later next month.

Well, that will do it for the AFC West and some players and situations to focus on once training camp opens up later this summer.  You may or may not agree with my analysis on the players and situations mentioned above, but hopefully you’ve at least enjoyed the article.  I encourage everyone out there to take the time to research players, watch some film and continue to actively improve your dynasty rosters.  The tools and opinions provided here at DFW can certainly help take your teams to the next level.  Feel free to contact me on Twitter @FFhoudini with any questions or comments.

Read more DFW articles by: Leo Paciga

Written by Sal Conti                                      Follow on Twitter: @SC2_DFW

Frank Gore is ‘the guy’ in San Fran but,his contract expires in 2 seasons and he isn’t getting any more durable or younger. Luckily for San Francisco, backup RB LaMichael James is an electric back that, in my mind, is ready to carry the load whenever he’s needed to.

Marcus Lattimore, former South Carolina RB, is also now wearing crimson and gold. Lattimore was a dominant player in his freshman and sophomore seasons, but two major knee operations abruptly ended his college career.

Kendall Hunter may be given some touches during the middle and end portions of the season, but he is still recovering from a torn knee ligament.

As a dynasty owner, how do we handle the 49ers backfield? What’s the fantasy outlook for Frank Gore, LaMichael James, Kendall Hunter and Marcus Lattimore for this year and the next few to come? How should you handle them as fantasy football owners?

Let’s peer into that 49ers depth chart.

Frank Gore

Gore is the undisputed starter in San Francisco for right now. While he has gotten injured numerous times in the past, he’s an ox between the tackles and has been in the upper echelon of the NFL’s RBs for a few years now. He ran for 1214 yards last season with a 4.7 YPC average, one of the better marks in the league.

However, he’s 30 now, he’s pushing 10 years in the league and his style of play is a bit too old-school to run the inside zone read play, the bread and butter of the Niners’ offense. Gore can carry defenders and run north and south, but he isn’t very explosive in his cuts and he lacks elite top end speed required to make the Inside Zone a lethal play.

If I owned him in a keeper league, I’d sell high immediately. While Gore has one or two high RB2/ low end RB1 caliber years left in him, LaMichael James is a much better fit for the Niners offense; I’ll go into further detail on that point later on.

LaMichael James

This kid is solid gold in the open field. Maybe the most lethal back in the NFL not named Adrian Peterson in term of explosiveness in his cuts. He can turn a loss of 3 yards into a 4 yard gain with a simple wiggle and shake past defenders.

James can also handle the rock in between the tackles. He averaged around 6.5 YPC when running up the middle or off the right tackle. But let’s also give credit to his offensive line; the Niners’ interior OL is one of the best in the NFL. For a young running back, he sees the hole very well. Besides, there’s no hole too small for James, thanks to his quickness.

Another reason to like James’ fit into the SF offense is his ability to catch passes and grab chunks of yards on each play. One of the more common plays to run in an offense that focuses around the Zone Read is the screen pass. You saw Kaepernick run this play often this past season. All he had to do was flick the ball over to the RB in the flat. From there, the RB uses his speed, cuts and agility to create yardage. Creating yardage is what James is best at.

James’ only problem is that he’s stuck behind Gore barring injury for as long as Gore stays in San Fran. He also could benefit from running with a lower pad level and more strength. Durability is the name of the game when it comes down to playing RB in the NFL.

If by some chace James is available in your league, pick him up NOW. If/when Frank Gore gets hurt, James is the man. He’s a threat to score whenever he’s in the open field. Buy low now. In a couple of seasons, we could be looking at a solid, starting NFL running back.

Marcus Lattimore

This is where this topic gets interesting.

Lattimore was phenomenal at South Carolina. He played like an All-American from his very first game in his freshman year. While he isn’t a speedster, he made some BEAUTIFUL cuts; his vision is unprecedented among other running backs in his draft class. Work ethic is yet another forte for Lattimore.

Unfortunately, TWO major knee surgeries have really halted Lattimore’s career. While the intangibles are there with the experience of dominating the college level, durability is, obviously, a major concern. Marcus cited that NFL backs Frank Gore, Willis McGahee and Adrian Peterson have all come back from major knee injuries to have lengthy and productive careers. If Lattimore’s work ethic continues to be as good as advertised, he could find himself back to full health soon, dominating the NFL competition within a few years.

That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Lattimore doesn’t see the field at all in 2013 simply because he doesn’t need to. The 49ers have a healthy passing game, a solid starting running back and an electric backup running back. Lattimore needs to work hard to rehab his knee, and by the time the 2014 or 2015 season rolls around, we the people will see how good he could really be in the NFL.

If you have empty spots on your roster than you know FOR SURE you won’t need, then pick up Lattimore. Just don’t expect any sort of production for at least a season.

Kendall Hunter

Hunter has recently began cutting again, according to Roto World. This is a good sign, as he can now participate even further in RB workouts two months ahead of summer camp. Kendall Hunter was the main backup to Frank Gore before he went down with a torn Achilles.

I’m a strong believer that Hunter will have his 2^nd string position man-handled from him by LaMichael. I would hold out on Hunter right now. If he is indeed named the backup, I’d keep him as a handcuff to Frank Gore only.

Written By Wesley Wood                        Follow on Twitter: @Chipper_DFW

No matter what time of the year it is, there is always some new buzz or gossip in the NFL. Not all of us have the time to scour all of the NFL sites for news, which is why I am here to give you the update on what is going on in the NFL.

Tim Tebow Goes To The Patriots

I think everyone knows this news by now. Tebow was signed to be the QB3 in new England and shall make little difference for anyone playing fantasy football. If you truly want to know every detail about this unimportant news then turn on Sportscenter.

Santonio Holmes May Miss Time

It has been reported that Holmes may miss some time in the beginning of the season. When he was asked about starting week 1 against the Buccaneers, Santonio had no comment. He suffered a Lisfranc injury in the beginning of last season after a hot start.

Ryan Broyles Expects To Participate In Training Camp

Despite tearing his ACL for back to back years, Broyles has been recovering well by being patient. Last year he rushed a little bit to show off on his pro day but this year he has shown patience and it has paid off. Broyles is expected to be Stafford’s number 2 target when he plays.

The Broncos Release McGahee

Willis McGahee has been released and this just further shows the Broncos commitment to Montee Ball, their 2^nd round pick. Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno are expected to split back up duties.

Ahmad Bradshaw Signs One Year Deal With The Colts

With Bradshaw in Indianapolis, the backfield is a mess. Bradshaw is expected to compete with Vick Ballard for the RB1 spot.

Victor Cruz Signs RFA Tender

All Cruz owners can breathe a sigh of relief as Cruz signs with the Giants for the 2013 season. Cruz has been a stud for them as he continually plays well without missing games.

Jonathan Stewart May Not Be Ready For Training Camp

Oh brother… Jonathan Stewart just keeps disappointing his owners one way or another. He has had surgeries on both ankles this off season. Good news for any DeAngelo Williams owners though.

Joe Philbin Says Lamar Miller Has “Really Progressed” This Offseason

Good news for all Lamar Miller owners as the head coach keeps saying he likes how Miller looks. The organization seems committed to him being the top dog in Miami. Lamar should be a solid RB2 for fantasy this season.

Giants OC Says Reuben Randle is “Gonna Play A Lot”

Looks like Kevin Gilbride really likes what he sees from Reuben Randle. With as much time as Nicks continually misses, it wouldn’t be surprise to see Randle be Eli’s number 2 target.

Kyle Shanahan Really Likes Alfred Morris

With everyone a little timid about Alfred Morris due to Mike Shanahan and his past of using any RB on the roster, it is nice to hear the offensive coordinator say Morris is “as good a back as I’ve ever been around”.

Brandon LaFell Locked In as the Panthers #2 Starter

LaFell is now in his final year of his rookie contract so now is the time to step it up and show the Panthers he is worth keeping. LaFell finished last season with 44 receptions/677 yards/4 TD’s.

Latavius Murray Is Sidelined Throughout Minicamp

Apparently Murray has a sore foot and will be missing time until training camp. Not the best news when you are trying to prove you can back up McFadden, who is bound to miss time.

Rams To Use a RBBC Approach

A top beat writer for St. Louis writes that the Rams will be using a RBBC approach this year. Not good news for owners who drafted Stacy expecting him to be the top dog this season.

Mark Sanchez Taking All 1^st Team Reps In Minicamp

Despite everyone besides the Jets seeing that Sanchez is not the answer, they still have him starting over Geno. It looks like Geno will need to earn the starting job the old fashion way.

Michael Floyd Impresses Bruce Arians

According to the Arians, Floyd has made leaps and bounds to get better. Floyd keeps improving his fundamentals and does not like to make mistakes. Floyd can expect a breakout year this year with Palmer under center.

Mark Ingram Playing With The Back Ups

Apparently Ingram keeps showing he was not worth a 1^st round pick as he is now practicing with the 2^nd stringers. Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles have been splitting 1^st team reps.

Arian Foster Is Out Until Training Camp

Foster has strained his right calf and will be out until training camp. This shouldn’t change anything as he remains a very viable RB1 in fantasy.

Questions? Comments? Concerns? Let me know below!

Of the 32 teams in the NFL, not every team has a running back worth starting. Since we all need a couple of running backs to start our league, the question is: Which teams have the running backs worth selecting? With so many teams to keep an eye on, this issue will be tackled over the course of two weeks. The first 16 will be looked at in this issue and the next 16 will be handled in part two. If anything changes with the first set of teams, I will make sure to include an update in part two. Let’s dive in!

Arizona Cardinals

• Who is the starter? Rashard Mendenhall
• Is Mendenhall worth starting? Only as a low-end RB2
• Who is the handcuff? It is a mess between Ryan Williams, Stepfan Taylor, and Andre Ellington. Ryan Williams has the best chance to fill in for Mendenhall.
• Is Williams worth owning? Only if you have Mendenhall. Even with Mendenhall, it’s a risk with Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington nipping at Williams’ heels.

Atlanta Falcons

• Who is the starter? Steven Jackson
• Is Jackson worth starting? Jackson is a RB2 with RB1 upside due to the TD opportunities the Falcons usually give their RB’s.
• Who is the handcuff? Jacquizz Rodgers
• Is Rodgers worth owning? Kind of… Jackson is a workhorse and the Falcons are “pass- heavy”; Rodgers would have limited opportunities.

Baltimore Ravens

• Who is the starter? Ray Rice
• Is Rice worth starting? Without question, yes! He is easily an RB1 in both standard and ppr formats.
• Who is the handcuff? Bernard Pierce
• Is Pierce worth owning? For dynasty, yes. For 2013, not necessarily. Rice has no injury issues and Pierce will probably only be getting 20% of the touches, at most, to keep Rice fresh.

Buffalo Bills

• Who is the starter? CJ Spiller
• Is Spiller worth starting? Yes, he is a home run pass catcher. He should pan out as a RB1 this year.
• Who is the handcuff? Fred Jackson
• Is Jackson worth owning? Jackson’s time is limited. So, if you cannot get him cheap then don’t waste your time.

Carolina Panthers

• Who is the starter? DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart
• Are either of them worth starting? Maybe as flex plays or bi-weekly fill-ins. Both cannot be counted on unless the other is injured. Even in that situation, they are only an RB3 in the Panther offense.
• Who is the handcuff? No one, as they both split carries.
• Are they worth owning? If you can acquire them cheap then, yes.

Chicago Bears

• Who is the starter? Matt Forte
• Is Forte worth starting? Yes, he is a viable RB2 and if the Bears can get him the ball in the red zone more frequently, then he can elevate RB1 numbers.
• Who is the handcuff? Michael Bush
• Is Bush worth owning? Yes, as Forte tends to miss a couple of games every year.

Cincinnati Bengals

• Who is the starter? BenJarvus Green-Ellis
• Is Green-Ellis worth starting? Only as a low end RB2.
• Who is the handcuff? Giovani Bernard
• Is Bernard worth owning? Yes! He is a high dynasty rookie pick and can snatch the starting job by playing well.

Cleveland Browns

• Who is the starter? Trent Richardson
• Is Richardson worth starting? Yes, he is. He will be a low end RB1 for sure barring any injuries.
• Who is the handcuff? No one really knows. It is a mess behind Richardson.
• So… what do I do? If you have Richardson do not worry about a handcuff as there is no one worth picking.

Dallas Cowboys

• Who is the starter? DeMarco Murray
• Is Murray worth starting? Yes, when he plays. DeMarco is a solid starter, but he has injury issues that hamper him from starting every week. He is an RB2 when playing.
• Who is the handcuff? Joseph Randle
• Is Randle worth owning? Yes, he is. Randle will fill in for Murray if he can’t start.

Denver Broncos

• Who is the starter? Right now it is a battle between Montee Ball, Knowshon Moreno, and Ronnie Hillman. Montee seems to have the advantage.
• Is Ball worth starting? As of now it is unclear. My best guess is he will be an RB3 with RB2 upside.
• Who is the handcuff? Hard to tell at this point but Moreno and Hillman are fighting for the RB2 spot.
• Are either of them worth owning? I would stay away until it becomes clear on who it is.

Detroit Lions

• Who is the starter? It seems Reggie Bush and Mikel Leshoure look to split time.
• Is Bush or Leshoure worth starting? Bush may be best in ppr formats as a RB3 with an RB2 upside.
• Who is the handcuff? Most likely, Leshoure.
• Is Leshoure worth owning? Yes, if you have Bush.

Green Bay Packers

• Who is the starter? Eddie Lacy seems to have the edge to win the starting position.
• Is Lacy worth starting? The Packers seem to be trying to get the running game more involved. This should make Lacy an RB3 with RB2 upside.
• Who is the handcuff? Johnathan Franklin
• Is Franklin worth owning? He sure is. Even if you don’t own Lacy, Franklin is the next in line to be the starter, plus he is a solid all around RB.

Houston Texans

• Who is the starter? Arian Foster
• Is Foster worth starting? For sure. He has been a top 5 back the past few years and while he may need to take less touches this year to stay healthy, he is a solid RB1.
• Who is the handcuff? Ben Tate
• Is Tate worth owning? If you own Foster then you need Tate. Foster is durable but he isn’t invincible. He has missed games previously and, after such a heavy workload this season, he may miss some more. In addition, he is currently out until training camp.

Indianapolis Colts

• Who is the starter? This one is tough as the Colts just signed Ahmad Bradshaw. This means Bradshaw and Vick Ballard will be fighting for the RB1 spot. I give the edge to Bradshaw in this situation.
• Is Bradshaw worth starting? If the Colts commit to him as the starter then he should be able to put up low RB2 numbers.
• Who is the handcuff? Vick Ballard
• Is Ballard worth owning? Since Bradshaw tends to miss games and is injury prone, Ballard is worth owning.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Who is the starter? Maurice Jones-Drew
• Is Jones-Drew worth starting? Yes, he is, despite going down with a season ending injury last year in week six. Maurice is a solid RB2 with RB1 upside.
• Who is the handcuff? Denard Robinson
• Is Robinson worth owning? I wouldn’t suggest it. He is a former QB who has very limited experience at RB. Plus the Jaguars are a bad organization, so I can’t trust their judgment here.

Kansas City Chiefs

• Who is the starter? Jamaal Charles
• Is Charles worth starting? An easy yes, as Charles is an RB1.
• Who is the handcuff? Kniles Davis
• Is Davis worth owning? From what I saw on his college tape, he has shown very little reason to be trusted. So, I would not suggest picking him.

Questions? Comments? Concerns? Let me know below!

Follow me on Twitter @Jesse_DFW

Value is the name of the game when building a dominant dynasty team through trades and the waiver wire and what better way than to get your guy before he blows up and commands top dollar?  It’s fairly common knowledge that the key to fantasy is finding the combination of talent and opportunity.  When looking for breakout players it is good to remember that most players make their biggest jump in production in years two and three as it takes time to adjust to the NFL game, and it is no different for defensive ends.  Guys like Jason Pierre-Paul, JJ Watt, and Von Miller all showed flashes in year one and blew up in year two.  For dynasty, I like to target guys in these years because it gives you a solid 5-7 years of elite production and another 2-3 years of really good production.

Here are my guys to target this year that are primed to have breakout seasons.  Some will take more to get than others but all are worth the price with the current scarcity of quality defensive ends.

Chandler Jones: New England Patriots, 23 Years Old, Year 2

Jones is an elite athlete with the ideal size and strength to be a playmaker at DE. After putting on 10 lbs. of muscle this offseason and measuring in at 6’5”, 260 lbs. and 35 ½” arms, Jones possesses the perfect combination of size and length.  As a player, Jones excels in short areas and is an explosive violent rusher who can get to the quarterback in many different ways.  Jones is also great against the run making him a much more consistent candidate than some other DEs that are strictly edge rushers.

I love Jones because he displayed glimpses of what he could really be.  Jones was a terror to begin the 2012 season, notching 6 sacks in his first 8 games, but slowed down after the bye and then was limited in his last 6 games due to injuries.  New England is void of decent pass rushers so Jones is in a fantastic situation.  Not only will he be a full time starter, New England’s offense will get a lead in a hurry and teams will be playing catch-up, giving Jones plenty of opportunity to pin his ears back and get to the passer.  To put it bluntly (if not a little uncomfortably), I love Jones.  I see him as a perennial 10-15 sack, 50 plus tackle guy and he could vault himself into top 10 consideration.

Shea McClellin:  Chicago Bears, 23 Years old, Year 2

McClellin was a fast riser coming out of Boise State in 2012 and the Bears drafted him in the middle of the first round to be their impact pass rusher on the opposite side of Julius Peppers.  McClellin measured in at 6’3”, 260 lbs and displayed nice speed by posting a 4.63 40 yard dash.  McClellin won’t blow you away physically, but he is an intelligent, hard-working, relentless football player with enough speed to get around the edge.  In addition, McClellin was very productive at Boise State (16.5 sacks and 26 TFL is his final 2 years) and on tape he displays all the necessary tools to be successful in the NFL.

I like McClellin because, despite being very limited last year, he showed me the ability to make plays.  He flashed early in 2012 with 2 sacks in his first 3 games but the rest of his season was derailed due to a knee injury and concussion that limited him in the next 14 games and he was only able to finish the season with 2.5 sacks.  The downside is Corey Wootton had somewhat of a breakout season with 7 sacks which has created some competition between the two for the starting position this coming year.  You would think this would cause me to curb my enthusiasm for McClellin, but as you can tell, my money is on McClellin winning out.

I like that McClellin was a first round draft pick with a ton of talent because he will get the opportunity to shine.  Additionally, I am not overly high on Wootton.  Yeah he put up 7 sacks last year, but he also was only able to manage 1 sack in his first 2 years, leading me to believe his sack total was more due to McClellin being limited and playing opposite Peppers than it was about pure talent and ability.  Personally, I think McClellin has the upside to notch double digit sacks in the same role.  When push comes to shove, I side with talent every day of the week, and McClellin is the more talented player.

Da’Quan Bowers: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 23 years old, Year 3

You all may think I am crazy on this one because Bowers has been a bust for the most part in his first 2 years, but most of that is due to injuries more than ability.  Da’Quan Bowers was arguably the most talented DE in the 2011 draft, but slid into the second round due to medical concerns surrounding his knee.  At 6’4”, 274 lbs., Bowers is a big, physical DE that has the ability to dominate opponents, he just has to put it all together.

Bowers was slowed in his first season recovering from the knee injury and then an Achilles tear kept him out for the majority of the first half of the season last year, therefore Bowers and has yet had a full healthy offseason.  The good news is this year looks to be different.  Bowers is finally healthy for the first time and should be able to train properly and utilize the offseason to turn into productive pro.  He certainly has the physical tools and talent to be a force.

Additionally, Bowers is in a great situation in Tampa Bay now that Michael Bennett is gone and Adrian Clayborn is dealing with knee issues of his own.  Bowers will get his shot to start at DE in a defense that just added Dashon Goldson and Darelle Revis to their secondary.  Bowers should get plenty of opportunities to make plays as receivers struggle to get open against a much improved Buccaneers secondary.  Like the others, Bowers has upside to produce in the double digits but I would guess somewhere in the range of 8-10 sacks next year is reasonable.

The Warehouse Invitational: Part 2

A Writeup By Brian Luzier (@TheFFBoss)

A couple of weeks ago the DFW crew got together for a good old fashioned, none-of-the-money-but-all-of-the-pride Draft Master. It was hosted on MyFantasyLeague.com, and the league can be found here. When you put someone’s pride on the line the smack talking is bound to fly and the chat and email thread we have going is epic. DFW has promised a “mystery prize” known only to the head honchos, and we all agreed the loser at the end of the season (the owner with the fewest points scored through 16 weeks) would have to write a followup article bashing himself and praising the winner, with 10 shades of gray in between. Be sure to let us know who you think will be writing the followup article below or on Twitter!

Originally I was going to trim the fat from some of the answers to get this down to a reasonable length, but the answers were so packed with awesome info and strategy I had to double down, so make sure you check out the followup article tomorrow on DFW and FFW.

Here are the questions I asked:

1. What was your strategy heading into the Draft Master? Did you stick to it? Did it work?
2. What’s the pick you could have back? (Sorry, Crabtree doesn’t count)
3. Who had the best draft?
4. Who had the craziest strategy, or who do you expect to finish last?
5. How did you approach this differently than a traditional redraft?
6. Anything else you’d like our readers to know?

And here are the answers I was given:

Luke Grilli (@lgrilli88)

1) I always make sure I am able to stock up on as many stud RBs/WRs as possible, before focusing on the QB and TE. Generally, (and it depends on where I draft) I like to go RB-WR-WR-RB-WR/QB-WR/QB. This draft I started at 1.09, which I was content with. There are 9 RBs I would take in the first round, so I am guaranteed to be happy with my first round pick.

I went LeSean McCoy 1.09, Brandon Marshall 2.04, Stevan Ridley 3.09, Wes Welker 4.04, Antonio Brown 5.09 and Tom Brady 6.04. This is almost a perfect Top 6 picks for my strategy. McCoy and Ridley are clear cut RB1s on their respective teams and my top 3 WR are PPR studs. The icing on the cake is I got my 4th ranked QB for 2013 in the 6th round. If I waited on Brady and took Tony Gonzalez as my TE1 or Greg Jennings as my flex, I would have lost out on an the elite QBs and taken Kaepernick or RG3 at 7.09. Both of those options would have been great QB1s for my team, but I will take the guy who consistently puts up Top 5 numbers. Plus, I was able to get Miles Austin and Jonathan Stewart in the 7th and 8th rounds respectively, so they round out my flex-by-committee position.

2) While I’m not upset taking LeSean McCoy 1.09 by any means, I think I should have taken Jamaal Charles, who went one pick later. Since this draft finished up, I have become enamored with Jamaal Charles. Peyton Hillis looks like he is gone (not that it really mattered anyways) and the offense should be run through Charles. LeSean McCoy will get plenty of carries, but I’m sure Bryce Brown, Felix Jones and Michael Vick will steal plenty of points from Shady. Nobody is stealing anything from Jamaal Charles in KC. I would also probably take Pitta over Jonathan Stewart in the 8th. I think that Benjarvus Green-Ellis has one more year of fantasy relevancy in Cinci and would have been just fine as my RB3.

3) Can I say me? Ok…I’m a little biased so I will go with someone else. I like Joe Kilroy’s squad. Peyton is a stud and Reggie Bush could come close to 70 catches in Detroit. If Ryan Mathews can put together a decent season, I could see high end RB2 production from him. I would prefer to have a true RB1 on this team, but his top 4 WRs mask any weakness at RB. Calvin Johnson, Demaryius and a healthy Amendola/Danario (big ifs)…it doesn’t get much better than that. Pitta should have plenty of catches as Flacco’s security blanket and even his kicker (Gostkowski) is tied to a high octane offense. Not too shabby Joe.

4) You hit the nail on the head. I’m not a fan of taking TEs early and you (Brian) took two of them! I don’t know if you will be finishing last, but your depth at WR worries me. I wouldn’t feel too comfortable having Stevie Johnson as my WR1 in a PPR league. Plus, with Gronk’s injury concerns, you could be playing without him for a few weeks.

5) Because it is a Draft Master and we are unable to add/drop and trade during the season, I didn’t reach for any sleeper candidates when I was still putting together my starting lineup. Potential break out guys (AJ Jenkins, Emmanuel Sanders and Ronnie Hillman) will not be relied on week to week, but if they become a starter then that is just gravy for my squad.

6) Please, please, please…do NOT draft a QB or TE in the first four rounds. There is so much WR and RB talent that you need to stock up on before you can even think about the other positions. Remember, each week you are starting AT LEAST 5 RB/WR. Take care of those positions, or take a QB in the 5th if you know you can get a decent WR option in Round 6. Get your RB/WR set and then worry about the QB and TE positions later. There are so many great options at QB that you can get late.

Also, the upside of taking a TE early is minimal. There are 2 elite guys that will out score the average TEs by 4-5 points a game (Graham and Gronk) and three 2nd tier guys (Witten, Hernandez and Gonzalez) who will outscore the average TEs by 1-2 points a game. Take the discounted player like Kyle Rudolph or Owen Daniels 3-4 rounds after the 1st and 2nd tier guys and gain the advantage at RB/WR, and you can thank me later.

Wesley Wood (@Chipper_DFW)

1) My strategy was to get consistent performers (as usual), but also wanted to take some risks with higher upside players.

2) No pick I made was a true regret. I think I got a tad desperate in round 13 when I picked Ryan Williams. I realized my RB depth was shallow.

3) I think I had a solid draft but if I had to choose someone elses team, it would be Jay’s. His team looks solid as well and he avoided rookies.

4) Alan had the craziest when he took 7 rookies and Jordan Cameron, who are all unproven.

5) I approached it with the mindset that age doesn’t matter. Only thing I look for is players who have produced and haven’t shown any reasons not to produce this year.

6) I want to say I am sorry to all of the readers. Since I will be far from last place, that means you won’t have my love put into the end of the year article.

Leo Paciga (@FFHoudini)

1) My strategy heading into the draft was to target RBs early and often and let the WR value fall to me in rounds 4-8. I was able to basically follow this approach, but the Crabtree injury – just 30 minutes after I drafted him at 4.02 – was tough to recover from. I felt like I spent the rest of the draft chasing lost points.

2) Tavon Austin at 6.02. I probably should have gone the route of a steady veteran at that stage in the draft (Greg Jennings of the Vikings and Carolina’s Steve Smith were both available at that pick).

3) I think Jay probably has the most well rounded squad. He’s got good depth at QB with Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger, 3 solid RBs with Ray Rice, Darren Sproles and David Wilson and both Larry Fitzgerald and Dwayne Bowe are primed for come back seasons at WR with improved options at QB. Adding in Tony Gonzalez at TE is just icing on the cake.

4) No crazy strategy, but losing Crabtree to a season ending injury will be very difficult for my team to overcome. Any player selected in the 4th round needs to be a key contributor in order for a squad to be successful. I’ve got a tough road ahead of me against these other talent laden teams.

5) Usually I’m “all in” with building my squads from the ground up with a solid group of young, upside WRs. DraftMaster leagues, however, are a different animal; if you don’t acknowledge and address the RB premium early in a DM, you’ll pay the price all season long.

6) Just that I really appreciate the folks that stop by DFW and take the time to read our articles, leave comments and/or visit the message board. I just want to say, “THANK YOU”!

Dan Heins (@Dan_DFW)

1) My strategy for just about any draft is always BPA ( best player available). Obviously there comes a time in every draft where “need” can start to outweigh the BPA and you will have to make a few concessions. I also wanted to gamble on RB a little. I figured I could load up on some strategic flyers and overfill the position by 2-3 players and try and hit on one or two.

2) Marcus Lattimore in the 10^thwas a silly pick in retrospect. Wish I had that one back. I love the pick there for dynasty but for a DM-redraft style draft that will end up hurting me unless Gore goes down.

3) I am going to go Jeff here. With a redraft format I think he did exceptionally well. 3 legitimate stud-potential RBs with Martin, Dmac, and MJD. He found great value at the WR position and since it’s a one year deal, age has no bearing. Boldin, Wayne, Wallace, and Steve Smith make for a nice options. I also love Boldin with the loss of Crabtree. He should take over right where Crabs left off. Cam will give him a game winner at QB and his TE position will just need to “hold its own”.

4) Definitely struggling to understand the mentality of taking 3-QB1s (and yes I’m talking to you Alan). A-rodg, Ryan, and Wilson are all great QBs so what they are doing on one team when you are only going to be getting one score out of all of them is a little perplexing. Obviously your QB is likely to give you some very nice points every week with those choices and it will also limit some of your opponents who failed to grab a higher end QB, but I think you just sacrifice and risk too much at the other positions. I think RB-wise Alan will be ok, but WR could be a disaster. He did load up on WR though, so he did increase his odds of hitting on a flier.

5) Honestly the biggest difference is the roster size. I was able to load up on flyer-RBs as I believe that is the most unpredictable position in FF. Get a stable WR corps, a stable QB, and then just hit on a couple of RBs and you are golden.

6) Just like anything you want to be good at, it requires practice. A great draft can set you up for domination. A poor draft can put you instantly in a rebuild-mode (at least for dynasty). If you want to be a great drafter, then you will need to PRACTICE. Get in some mock drafts on your favorite sites. Compete in some “draft master” leagues on MFL. They are painless and a ton of fun.

Unfortunately Sal and Jay couldn’t be reached for comments on the draft. I’m sure if you hit them up on Twitter or below they’ll be happy to answer all of your questions though!

After reading these responses it became clear to me that my mentality for DraftMasters is vastly different from the others (a good thing, I think), and so you have that to look forward to in the next week or two.

I hope you guys enjoyed the followup to our draft and got your learn on.

Be easy.

The Warehouse Invitational: Part 1

A Writeup By Brian Luzier (@TheFFBoss)

A couple of weeks ago the DFW crew got together for a good old fashioned, none-of-the-money-but-all-of-the-pride Draft Master. It was hosted on MyFantasyLeague.com, and the league can be found here. When you put someone’s pride on the line the smack talking is bound to fly and the chat and email thread we have going is epic. DFW has promised a “mystery prize” known only to the head honchos, and we all agreed the loser at the end of the season (the owner with the fewest points scored through 16 weeks) would have to write a followup article bashing himself and praising the winner, with 10 shades of gray in between. Be sure to let us know who you think will be writing the followup article below or on Twitter!

Originally I was going to trim the fat from some of the answers to get this down to a reasonable length, but the answers were so packed with awesome info and strategy I had to double down, so make sure you check out the followup article tomorrow on DFW and FFW.

Here are the questions I asked:

1. What was your strategy heading into the Draft Master? Did you stick to it? Did it work?
2. What’s the pick you could have back? (Sorry, Crabtree doesn’t count)
3. Who had the best draft?
4. Who had the craziest strategy, or who do you expect to finish last?
5. How did you approach this differently than a traditional redraft?
6. Anything else you’d like our readers to know?

And here are the answers I was given:

Alan Satterlee(@Speedkills_FFW)

1) I have participated in an experts’ mock draft in Fantasy Index magazine for a few years with this exact format. In a “Tuesday morning lineup” league the key to me is taking guys with upside (some will connect) and running back also becomes much more important. My strategy was to load up on RBs early and I feel like I have the best set of RBs at 2-deep, 3-deep and 4-deep. I also decided to wait on wide receiver and go with volume, although I got sniped a few times on WRs that I wanted. I also like to throw a monkey wrench into the draft formula. In this one I went off the deep end and drafted three straight QBs – Aaron Rodgers in the 5th, and then Matt Ryan / Russell Wilson in the 6th / 7th. I bet people didn’t see that one coming! That wasn’t my strategy per se but the math in this format to me says it will pay off so we shall see. I may need to never have a week with below 30 QB points to pay off.

2) This sounds kind of silly but I wanted to leave the draft with a Blair Walsh / Greg Zuerlein kicker combo! I was hoping kicker would last one more round. I would have had to have passed on the Houston Texans DT and Latavius Murray. As there are no moves having two (good) kickers is also important and two that will definitely be kicking several months from now.

3) I did! I feel like I have the best QBs and best RBs, so that’s two positions. The question is can my WRs collectively do enough to keep pace in Tuesday morning lineups (I just need 3 to hit and I have 8 of them). Okay, okay, aside from me, I like Leo (pre Crabtree injury) and Dan’s teams the most. They both happen to be at the very end of the draft so maybe that says something for my ideal 2013 draft slot (1.11 and 1.12) although I would prefer 1.01 with Adrian Peterson if I were able to chose and I wouldn’t get cute. Leo lost Michael Crabtree or else his team would be very strong. Both Leo and Dan drafted titled albeit in different directions. Leo went RB-RB-RB and landed a good QB gamble combo late (still though Leo will lose points at QB). Losing Crabtree will be tough to overcome. Dan’s WRs are badass. I would LOVE to start a draft Dez/Julio. Getting both Pead and Stacy in St. Louis was smart. Colin Kaepernick at 7.12 was larceny. I’d like Dan’s team even more with Sam Bradford or Andy Dalton on it as the QB2 (Bradford and Dalton went the next two picks at 12.02 and 12.03).

4) Well I have to be on that list. Drafting 3 QBs like that wasn’t my strategy but they all were great picks in my opinion and since I don’t have to pick a starter it will pay off in this format (to what degree we shall see). Honestly, I wanted Russell Wilson but Matt Ryan had great match-ups in Week 1 (when Aaron Rodgers travels to San Francisco, Ryan will be lighting it up against Drew Brees) and Week 4 (when Green Bay is on a bye). So I decided to draft both QBs and start weaving and bobbing from there, my favorite way to draft. Brian the Boss drafting two TEs at 2.11 and 3.02 was certainly crazy. It could pay off though, and it will be interesting to watch. In this format, only one kicker or one defense is a tremendous disadvantage. It significantly reduces those team’s (Sal’s) chances of winning in my opinion.

5) I wouldn’t have drafted a 3rd QB so high- that’s for sure.

6) I think Jordan Cameron in the 11th round is a great 2013 TE strategy, maybe being the last team to get a starting TE but the first one to get a backup TE.

Brian Luzier (@TheFFBoss)

1) Going into DraftMasters I usually aim to have 1 solid, week in and week out starter I can count on at each position. I certainly succeeded at QB, RB, and TE, but I could see someone looking at my WRs and thinking I’m screwed. I don’t feel that way as I drafted Johnson and Williams who are both rock solid RB2s, so all I need is for one of my favorite breakout WRs to put up a respectable week and follow my RBs and TEs to victory. Also, as many can attest to a DEF can straight up win you a week, so I like having 3 in DMs and hoping I get lucky a few weeks with some monsterous totals. I also ended up with two TEs, didn’t plan on that but I saw them there at the end of the 2^nd and a light turned on in my head.

2) I’m pretty happy with the values I got at all my picks, but I feel dirty drafting the Redskins D…

3) Alan is going to need a few of those rookies to hit, but it’s hard for any dynasty fan to look at that team and not get excited. I think taking a WR instead of that third QB would make his team look much more intimidating.

4) I think the craziest strategy, which really might just have been a huge oversight on his part is Sal with only 1 K and 1 DST. It’s hard for me to think that team can compete all year long with no redundancy at the most volatile positions.

5) DMs differ primarily for me in the way I approach the WR:RB ratio. Usually I’m happy with 1 good RB and a bunch of depth picks, but in a DraftMaster I tend to flip the strategy and hoard early RBs and mid round WRs.

6) I just want to say thanks to everyone for reading and tweeting me. I love interacting with other fantasy nuts and twitter is an awesome way to get at me!

Carl Zabel

1) Honestly, the only real strategy I had was to go RB/RB with my first 2 picks. I did stick to it taking TRich in rd 1 and SJax in rd 2. I hope it worked. My RB depth isn’t the greatest, but I hope that TRich and SJax will be strong enough to carry me through the year.

2) The one pick I wish I could have back is Blackmon in round 5. Losing him for 4 games (basically 25% of the season) could be crucial. I think I protected myself in his absence with players like Rice, Garcon, Streater, but I could have taken players like Wayne, Colston, and Bowe who would produce for me right away.

3) Obviously, I like the team I drafted. Overall, I would have to say that Jay had the best draft. IMO, Romo is a very underrated fantasy QB. Yes you will have to deal with a few “duds” from him, but for the most part, he puts up solid numbers. He has a solid RB core with Rice, Sproles and Wilson, with some nice handcuffs in Thomas and Pierce. Bowe, Fitz, Maclin, Wright, Quick should put up some nice numbers at WR and Gonzo will be solid at TE in a redraft format.

4) The craziest strategy was Alan taking Rodgers, Ryan, and Wilson as his QBs. I understand his logic of keeping those players off of another team, but I think he could have gotten better value at RB/WR where you need to start 2 or 3. I also thought @THEFFBOSS taking both Graham and Gronk was interesting, although not as crazy as the QBs since Graham/Gronk could make a nice flex play. Dan taking Lattimore……WTF 

5) The only real different approach I took was going RB/RB with my first 2 picks. Normally, I would probably take RB in rd 1 and then try and get a “stud” WR in rd 2. Since we don’t need to choose starters, I felt it was more important to try and lock down 2 RBs early and try and fill my WR core with more the WR1/WR2 types.

Jeff Melbostad (@Jeff_DFW)

1) My strategy going in was to land three stud RBs right off the bat because they aren’t nearly as deep as other positions this year. Landing RBs early is imperative in 2014 in my opinion. From there I wanted to fill in my WRs for the most part with QB and TE being low priority. I think I stuck to it well and ended up with a pretty solid and deep team because of it. I got a better QB than expected because Cam Newton fell to the 6th and like how all of my WRs (except Keenan Allen and Jacoby Ford) will likely be the #1 receiving option for their given team. TE was an afterthought as it usually is for me but I really like Fleener to break out in a big way this year.

2) At the risk of sounding cocky I really don’t feel like I would take any of my picks back. I’m comfortable and confident in each one as I nabbed value or need in almost all cases. A number of times I was at the beginning of a run on a position which is always a good thing. I like the players I landed for the most part where I got them so while it seems like a cop out I stand by my draft.

3) From a strategy perspective I despise what Brian did taking both Gronk and Graham in the first three picks. I will likely never draft either of them early enough to make my squad alone much less both of them. I just don’t believe TE is the position you want carrying your team and I feel it’s deeper than all other positions besides maybe QB. From a team perspective I think Alan’s team is bound to struggle the most. Aaron Rodgers is a stellar QB but that position has become the deepest in fantasy football with the recent success of the young guys. After Adrian Peterson and Randall Cobb I don’t see much in the way of proven or guaranteed production at all on this team. The RBs could work out but I’ll be surprised if the WRs and TEs do.

4) Because it’s a draftmaster where no waivers or lineup changes are made throughout the season depth plays nearly as important a role as starters. I made sure to handcuff my RBs as best as I possibly could. This way injuries won’t kill my RB lineup. I also made sure to grab three starting NFL QBs to ensure one big week from any one of them will count toward my total. Even the worst of QBs is capable of putting up nice stats any given Sunday. In retrospect an extra TE would have been good in case the two I have get injured or falter but every roster has it’s weakness.

5) While I chose my strategy up front and stuck to it with what I feel is a successful strategy I think everyone should be aware that this won’t always be the case. It’s always good to have a plan going into a draft but be prepared to adapt as the draft is going down. A plan can fall apart quickly so don’t be afraid to mix things up if things don’t go your way. Sticking to a failing strategy is far worse than abandoning what you initially wanted in favor of something that works.

Joe Kilroy (@KilroyDFW)

1) I went into it the same way I would approach any redraft league for the most part. The main difference was that if I felt I was weak in any one area as the draft unfolded I was willing to stockpile at the position a little more than I may have otherwise done. This is because I knew I would only need one option there to have a strong outing during any given week in order for me to get solid or strong production from the position.

In a draft master the headache of having a handful of uncertain options you have to pick from and hit on each week is eliminated. Having more options at any one position is a benefit here as opposed to potentially complicating matters.

2) With the way the draft unfolded I don’t really regret any of my picks. By the end of the year though I may be wishing I selected Le’Veon Bell (went at 4.12) or Chris Ivory (went at 5.02) over Ryan Mathews who I took at 4.08. I felt Mathews offered the most upside though. And while others may have lost all faith in him I’m still willing to give him this year before possibly reaching that point. I just have to cross my fingers that he stays healthy.

Outside of that I had hoped to get Danny Woodhead and/or Joique Bell as handcuffs to Mathews and Reggie Bush, but they both went about a round earlier than I anticipated and I still would have chosen the players I had selected in those same rounds ahead of those two even in hindsight.

3) It’s tough to pinpoint one roster as the best. The teams that standout the most to me though (taking myself out of the equation) are Jay, Jeff, Luke, and Wes. I’m not sure what order I’d rank them, but they would be my top four.

4) I think Alan may have overdone it when he drafted three quarterbacks within the first seven rounds. I can understand grabbing Aaron Rodgers (at 5.01) and Matt Ryan (at 6.12) like he did, but selecting Russell Wilson at 7.01 instead of grabbing something helpful at the WR or TE position could prove costly.

I don’t think he’ll finish last, but the three-QB approach might’ve been overkill and could hinder him from achieving a higher win total than he might end up with.

5) The biggest difference is something I touched upon in my response to the first question. Depending on how the draft unfolded I would stockpile players at the one or two positions I felt I was weakest at. In this draft I did this with my tight end spot. I may not have landed Gronkowski, Graham, Witten, or Hernandez, but between Pitta, Finley, Dustin Keller and Heath Miller I like to think I’ll get really strong outings from my TE position all throughout the year on a weekly basis.

If I didn’t land one of the top quarterbacks then I would have taken the same approach there by trying to group three or four decent QBs together as opposed to knowing I was locked in with Peyton Manning all year and just one guy behind him (Philip Rivers).

Same goes for however things played out at RB or WR. Running back is a little harder to take that approach with due to the limited number of valued options, but I tried doing my best with guys I felt had upside behind Reggie Bush and Ryan Mathews by grabbing Bryce Brown, Daryl Richardson, and Fred Jackson.

6) This is my first draft masters league, but I think I took the right approach to it. And that is what I just covered. You can afford to not have a top option in these leagues at primarily the QB or TE position as long as you stockpile a solid group of three or four players in those areas where you figure there’s a good chance one from that bunch will have strong outing every Sunday.

I managed to land Peyton Manning at QB so I didn’t have to worry about that spot here. But basically I wanted to get two solid starting RBs, go strong at the WR position, and then grab as many notable tight ends as I could to cover my bases there.

I think doing this with the D/ST’s position could payoff too if you have the roster space to grab three or four D/ST’s while knowing all you need is one of them to have a strong outing to gain an upper hand on your league mates there.

Shawn Gallagher (Contact Shawn on Facebook)

1) My Strategy was to treat this draft like a redraft, and take best player available. I also wanted to mix it up a bit, and go with some players I don’t have in any other leagues to add some variety.

2) I wish I had drafted a running back sooner, like in the first 2 rounds, as the elite backs went rather quick and I’m relying a lot on rookie or unproven backs.

3) Lots of really good drafters here, but if I had to pick one other than my own, I’d go with Luke’s team, as I think his draft was solid and he didn’t really make any reaches.

4) At this point I think Dan has invested his entire life savings into Zac Stacy, and he’s swinging for the fences with him, but I like that Dan is willing to talk the talk and walk the walk. If Stacy is slow out of the gate, it could send Dan straight to 12th place :)

5) Age obviously was not that much of a factor for me, for example, in this league I drafted Andre Johnson where I normally wouldn’t have due to his older age.

6) Overall, I was happy with this draft just let the draftboard come to me. I’m the kind of guy that goes with gut feeling in drafts like this, and throws research out the window.

That completes the 1^st half of Q and As from the inaugural Warehouse Invitational. Be sure to check in tomorrow for the remaining answers, and let us know what you thought of our strategies in the comments below!

Thanks for reading, and as always, be easy.

Andre Roberts: Up and Comer

By Joe Kilroy (@KilroyDFW)

A Blip on the Radar

Andre Roberts is someone I took note of heading into last season simply because he was going to line-up opposite Larry Fitzgerald as a starter in the Cardinals offense. I saw he had posted 51 receptions for 586 yards and 2 touchdowns as a second-year wide-out in 2011 and figured he may be worth a roster spot in dynasty leagues based on the outside chance he would build upon those statistics in the year ahead.

When he opened the 2012 season with 5 receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown I was encouraged, but wasn’t overly excited. He went on to record a touchdown in Week 2 however, followed that up with 3 receptions for 55 yards in Week 3, and then tore it loose with a six-catch, 118-yard, and two touchdowns outing in Week 4 against the Miami Dolphins.

Not only was Roberts off to a hot start, but the Arizona Cardinals were 4-0 and I thought maybe both he and the team were destined for great things in 2012. As it turns out the team went on to win just one more game over the remainder of the year. But while the Cardinals season may have gone kaput, Andre Roberts kept chugging along. When all was said and done he finished the year with 64 receptions for 759 yards and 5 touchdowns. Those figures may not be overly impressive to some, but when viewed within the proper context they tend to standout.

The Cardinals offense as a whole threw for just 3005 yards (fifth fewest in the league) and 11 touchdowns last year (second fewest). That means Andre Roberts accounted for 25% of the team’s receiving yards and 45% of their touchdown receptions. He finished the season with just seven fewer receptions and 39 fewer receiving yards than his potentially Hall of Fame worthy counterpart Larry Fitzgerald. And he did so while playing in one less game.

It’s also worth noting that Roberts compiled these statistics while having to work with four different starting quarterbacks throughout the season. None of whom started more than six games. And none of which were any good (Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer). He also had to fend off highly touted rookie Michael Floyd throughout the year and did so rather successfully.

Enter Bruce Arians

Following the Cardinals 2012 collapse Ken Whisenhunt was relieved of his head coaching duties and replaced with Bruce Arians. Arians is well known for his tenure as the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator from 2007-2011, but is most recently noted for the outstanding job he did running the Colts 2012 offense and serving as the team’s interim head coach following Chuck Pagano’s midseason absence due to his fight against cancer.

Arians had a lot on his plate last season working with a rookie quarterback, running an offense, and being called upon to steer the ship for the Colts ailing head coach, but he managed to do a far better job than anyone could have expected. Not only did he hold the team together but he was a major factor behind the Colts 2012 playoff berth. It no doubt played a significant role in why he landed his first NFL head coaching gig this offseason.

In accepting the job as Arizona’s head coach Arians had two significant areas he had to address on the offensive side of the ball – the quarterback position and the offensive line. He solved the first issue by acquiring Carson Palmer from the Oakland Raiders via trade in early April. He then used the seventh overall selection in this year’s draft on guard Jonathan Cooper out of North Carolina to help solve the interior issues amongst the offensive line. For good measure Arizona added another guard in the fourth round with their selection of Earl Watford out of James Madison University.

In further addressing the Cardinals offensive needs Arians brought in running back Rashard Mendenhall – a player he had coached during his stay with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He also added two more options amongst his running back stable with the selections of Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington during the draft.

While the Cardinals may be hard pressed to accomplish a one-year turn around following a 5-11 season all the offensive additions should serve to benefit the likes of not just Larry Fitzgerald but Andre Roberts as well.

Andre Roberts in 2013 and Beyond

To my surprise I have seen more than a few early season projections expecting a dip in production from Roberts during the upcoming season. I have to assume this is partly due to the belief Larry Fitzgerald will grossly occupy the lion’s share of production amongst Cardinals receiving targets while Michael Floyd and Robert Housler are being trumpeted as next in line for breakout campaigns.

As a result Andre Roberts appears to be getting the shaft. I wouldn’t be so quick to overlook or dismiss the fourth year wide-out however. Roberts has improved upon his reception and receiving yardage totals during each of his first three seasons in the league. And I believe there will be ample opportunity for him to carry on with that trend in the year ahead.

For the first time in his career Roberts will be working with a quarterback actually worthy of being a starter in the NFL. He’ll also be playing in Arians open offensive attack which will allow him to thrive as either the starter opposite Larry Fitzgerald or as the team’s primary slot receiver.

And not only does Roberts possess the athletic ability to be a strong component within the Cardinals offense, but he has a good head on his shoulders as well. He works hard and has garnered praise not only from the Cardinals brass but also from his teammates. Larry Fitzgerald has offered high praise of Roberts in the past and he’s drawn comparisons to Hines Ward at times for his strong blocking abilities as a receiver.

I’m not about to proclaim the fourth-year receiver out of the Citadel will have a true breakout campaign this season, but he has just as likely a chance at it as Michael Floyd or Robert Housler – and even more so in my opinion. At worst I believe he will come close to matching the production he put forth in 2012. But he also stands a very real chance of becoming one of Carson Palmer’s favorite targets in the same manner Brandon Myers was for the veteran quarterback last season.

Beyond this year Roberts’ future is somewhat uncertain. He is in the final year of the four-year contract he signed as a rookie. If he doesn’t remain a Cardinal however I tend to think he’ll find success elsewhere and could be a sought after commodity if he reaches free agency.

Read more DFW articles by: Joe Kilroy | Email: KilroyDFW.J@gmail.com

A League of Characters

By Leo Paciga  -  @FFHoudini

Jeff Melbostad’s article last week on risk management and how it reflects an owner’s personality got me thinking about the different types of owners that are consistently found in dynasty leagues.  While I will say that every individual owner certainly brings their own style, characteristics and personality to a league, there are still a few fairly common owner stereotypes that can be found with regularity in dynasty leagues everywhere.  I know owner stereotypes make for an entertaining message board discussion, but in order to excel at fantasy football, especially in a dynasty format, you really have to be able to identify different types of owners and learn how to use their tendencies to your advantage.  Since I’ve spent the last few years playing in over 30 competitive dynasty leagues, I’ve seen my fair share of “characters” and I thought now would be a great time to discuss some observations on a few stereotypical dynasty owners.

The “Antique Collector”  -  This is the owner who sees the value in adding those veteran players that other owners have stopped coveting due to age.  Sure, players lose value as they age in a dynasty format, but some owners tend to see “seniority” as a plague and draw a line in the sand at a certain age depending on the player’s position.  Running backs used to have a magical depreciation age of 30 when it came to trade value and that age has slowly inched its way up to 29, 28 and even 27 years of age in some situations, leaving plenty of productive years on the table for some crafty owner.  Dynasty enthusiasts tend to focus so much on youth that these older players are shunned well before their shelf life has expired.

• How that works to your advantage  -  These owners will be the ones you have to target when rebuilding your own squad.  They are the only owners who will be interested in taking on players like Antonio Gates, Frank Gore or Reggie Wayne and offering any form of value in return.

The “Risks be Damned” Owner  -  This is a great type of owner to have in your league because he or she is a true trade catalyst.  This type of team manager sees the value and upside in players that many owners simply want to trade away due to the risks associated with making a long term dynasty investment.  Health concerns, off field issues, poor attitude and lousy life management choices can all be reasons why certain players carry a value far below what their physical skill set should demand in a trade.  There is always that one dynasty owner in every league that is willing to jump on board and invest in the potential upside regardless of the high risk factor that comes along in the deal.

• How that works to your advantage  -  This is the owner you seek out when you’ve simply had enough of a certain player’s off field antics or when you’ve tired of a certain player’s hype and upside never reaching fruition.

The “Shiny New Toy” Owner  -  The opposite of the “antique collector”, this owner always seems to be gambling on and investing in the next best thing.  This type of dynasty owner often tends to quit on any young players that take a while to develop in favor of pursuing the next new set of rookies.  What’s funny about this style of roster management (and yes, I’ve been guilty of being this owner in the past) is that you can often find yourself chasing your own tail, always having a young roster loaded with promise, but never enough “here and now” production to make a serious title run.

• How that works to your advantage  -  This is the owner to target if you’re looking to turn future draft picks into immediate value and/or production because they’ll usually pay a premium for any type of draft pick.  With an eye always on the future, this owner often tends to discount veteran players more aggressively as they age in an attempt to free up roster space for an influx of younger talent.

The “Used Car Salesman”  -  Nearly impossible to trade with, this owner has to win each and every deal by a substantial margin.  This owner also tends to send lopsided offers in abundance accompanied with long winded explanations as to why his or her four bench players are better for your squad than keeping Calvin Johnson or some other elite producer.  Armed with just enough fantasy football knowledge to be dangerous, this owner creates his success by targeting – and relentlessly pursuing – the less experienced owners in your league.

• How that works to your advantage  -  You learn to simply end negotiations early with this owner and save the frustration for another day, or you play the same game and use those very same tactics against that type of owner.

The “Risk Averse” Manager  -  A dynasty owner that likes very few ripples on the fantasy football pond; the “risk averse” manager enjoys owning players that provide consistent production and rock solid track records on and off the field.  This type of owner also tends to apply the same philosophy to trade negotiations, taking methodical steps when it comes to digesting value and/or making offers.

• How that works to your advantage  -  If one of this owner’s players gets into trouble, fails a drug test or has a run in with the law, you know a potential “buy low” opportunity could be right around the corner.  This type of owner will also overvalue consistent performers – even with limited upside – and will often pay a premium for such a player.

“The Shark”  -  Always on the prowl, the fantasy football shark – or “hawk” as they are sometimes referred to – is the owner in your league who is shrewd, active and knowledgeable.  In dynasty leagues the two most important traits of a shark tend to deal with player evaluation and getting out in front of the herd when it comes to identifying player values.  This type of owner is usually very open to having trade negotiations and general fantasy football discussions because they understand the importance of setting a comfortable atmosphere with as many potential trade partners as possible.

• How that works to your advantage  -  Just because a “shark” comes knocking at your door for a particular player, don’t get nervous and avoid negotiations.  Unlike the “used car salesman” in your league, dynasty owners that fall into the “shark” category tend to make very solid offers if they’re going after a targeted player, and as I mentioned above, they generally enjoy a good back and forth negotiation.

“The Wallflower”  -  The worst type of owner, the “wallflower” tends to be disinterested in fantasy football dialog of any sort and seldom engages in league activities.  I’m simply not sure why this type of owner joins a dynasty league since this format is dependent on owner activity, trading and overall commitment.  But sadly, many leagues have an owner that fits this description and days can go by with very little activity and endless trade offers may go unanswered.

• How that works to your advantage  -  Simple, it doesn’t.  It doesn’t work to your advantage and it’s a detriment to the league.  The best possible outcome is to replace this type of owner with a more active, committed owner.

“Captain Ahab”  -  The most entertaining of all dynasty owners, this owner marches to his own rhythm and has little concern for player values or what his league mates think.  The “Captain Ahabs” of the dynasty world fall in love with particular players for an endless myriad of reasons (usually none of them valid) and go after acquiring those players with unbridled enthusiasm and endless determination.  For whatever reason, this owner tends to be a true example of an oxymoron whose only consistency is being completely and passionately inconsistent.

• How that works to your advantage  -  Well, good luck figuring this owner out.  I suggest sitting back and enjoying the passion this owner brings to your league even if you seldom agree with the moves he or she makes.  And don’t get upset when they offer a crazy proposal or if they reject one that you feel is completely fair in value; that’s just the unpredictable nature of this type of owner.

“The Trade Machine”  -  This owner has yet to find a trade that couldn’t be made or negotiated.  There is a certain sense of accomplishment and adrenaline that comes from completing a dynasty trade and certain owners thrive on the constant wheeling and dealing.  In fact, I’ve run across a few owners in my leagues that I swear make trades simply because they like to negotiate and not because they actually improve their squad in any way, shape or form.

• How that works to your advantage  -  There is no better value barometer in your league than the “trade machine” as these owners are always open to negotiations and these trade talks can usually help provide you with a price point for the players you’re looking to sell.  These owners also help fuel the activity level in your dynasty league with an endless supply of trade negotiations and are a vital component of any successful league.

So there you have it; a look at ten different types of owners that are littered throughout dynasty leagues everywhere.  You may not have all ten types in your league, or you may find that your league has some owners that are a combination of several character types.  Either way, you’ll have to learn how to identify and handle all of them in order to be successful.  As always, I encourage everyone out there to take the time to research players, watch some film and continue to actively improve your dynasty rosters.  The tools and opinions provided here at DFW can certainly help take your teams to the next level.  Feel free to contact me on Twitter @FFhoudini with any questions or comments.

Read more DFW articles by: Leo Paciga

IDP Stockwatch:  Above the Radar?

For some of us, the rookie draft season flies by quicker than a long weekend in May when you’re having fun. And if you can appreciate that, then you’ll agree that there are other players to focus our attention on right now aside from rookies. I don’t claim to be a prophet and I might not blow anyone’s minds anyway ( http://gataplex.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/mindblown_st.gif ) with the players on this list since a diehard dynasty IDP owner no doubt has heard of these players. But this is about players on the rise who won’t cost you an arm and a leg or any other vital appendage.

In the IDP world, linebackers reign supreme. Everyone and their dog is on the hunt for the next middle/inside linebacker that can be plugged in as a LB1 each and every week. And while I’d like to preach the importance of having a well balance squad across all 3 major IDP positions… the fact of the matter is, linebackers are big time commodities. So let’s have a closer look at a couple of younger players that are in position to take on a larger role, both in the NFL and in your fantasy league this year.

Nigel Bradham, LB, Buffalo Bills – Oh how things can change! Bradham once was a deep OLB prospect (at best) and now is suddenly a prime candidate to play MLB/ILB in the tackle friendly Buffalo defense. The Bills cut ties with Nick Barnett and Kelvin Sheppard so the door is wide open

Big Wreck – Blown Wide Open

At 6’2″ and 240+ lbs, he definitely has the measurables to play inside. At the 2012 NFL combine, he put up a 4.64 forty, a 37″ vertical and 24 reps on the bench. On tape, Bradham is a big time hitter with the athletic ability to chase, cover and lay some wood with a big hit. In his rookie season, he finished with 59 total tackles, including 38 solos in fairly limited action and was improving as the season went on. As of now, Mike Pettine’s plans are still unclear. They drafted Kiko Alonso and will likely run with some 3-4 and 4-3 schemes. But all signs are pointing to Bradham being a 3 down LB for the Bills this year where they can take advantage of his skill set in coverage and on blitzes.

Even though this clip is college highlight footage, it does give you a glimpse of what Bradham can do for you.

- Nigel Bradham FSU 2011 Highlights

Demario Davis, LB, New York Jets - For some, this might be a little too late. But with Rex Ryan’s endorsement that he’ll be a starter this year and replace Bart Scott at ILB… he’s worth far more than a roster stash. For those of you that picked him up off waivers last year, good on ya. He’s another 2nd year player that is poised to payoff for those early investors.

In many ways, he’s very similar to the aforementioned Bradham.  Demario Davis is extremely athletic and displays a great combination of size, speed and strength. At the 2012 combine he posted a 4.49 forty, 32 reps on the bench and a 38 1/2 vertical. Fast enough to play a skill position and strong enough to play in the trenches.  That’s a nice skill-set.  In his rookie year, he racked up 35 total tackles, including 30 solo tackles in fairly limited action. At 6’2″, 235 lbs, he’s definitely not a thumper.  But he has above average speed and has proven to be a pretty solid tackler. He’s more of a straight line speed guy than a coverage LB, but he’s very effective and efficient when in the open field. Having said that, the NYJ linebacker to own is still David Harris, but Davis should be able to stick around as a 3 down LB on the weak side if the Jets mix in some 4-3 looks. I think he can definitely flirt with solid LB3 production, if not more.  Above all else, his future is looking bright.

Erin Henderson, LB, Minnesota Vikings - At 6’3″, 248 lbs, Henderson is currently penciled in as the MLB for the Vikings. There was talk of the Vikings bringing in a veteran MLB like Urlacher, but that ship has sailed. Henderson was mainly a special teamer for his first 3 seasons but he has been a starter for the past 2 years at WLB and posted 149 total tackles over that span.

The Vikings re-signed him this spring on a 2 year deal. Since they didn’t go after anyone early in the draft or in free agency, it looks like it’s his job to lose right now. Having said that, the Vikes did draft Michael Mauti and Gerald Hodges, both former Penn State linebackers, so his future as a starter certainly has some question marks. If you’ve been playing in IDP leagues for a while, you’ll know that Penn State has been churning out studly LBs for years. (See: Paul Posluszny, NaVorro Bowman, Sean Lee) So keep an eye on the development of the guys behind Henderson. But in the meantime, Henderson could help fill that hole on the cheap if the injury bug should strike.  In terms of trade value, anything more than LB3 for LB5 value is no good for you IMO. Henderson’s shelf life isn’t nearly as high as the others I covered in this article.

Chicago Fire: The Marc Trestman dynasty begins!

By Shawn Gallagher – DFW Writer

                Optimism is high in Chicago for the 2013 version of the Bears, as brand new Head Coach Marc Trestman brings a new attitude to the team! A Bears offense that was already highly talented and skilled is now paired with a real Offensive guru as their new coach!  Trestman was recently a Championship winning Head Coach in the Canadian Football League, leading the Montreal Alouettes to 2 Grey Cup titles in 5 years. NFL fans are also probably familiar with Trestman, as he has a very long resume of working in the NFL as an Offensive Coordinator and Position Coach for many years, dating all the way back to the 1980’s.  In this article here, we will attempt to figure out how Chicago Bears players will be impacted by the Marc Trestman hiring, and how dynasty owners of these Bears players should also share in the optimism that Bears fans have thanks to Marc Trestman.  Here is a brief video of the Bears introduction of Marc Trestman, and the beginning of a new era in Chicago.

The Marc Trestman Bio

            Marc Trestman’s football career started many years ago, as he was a former college quarterback for the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the late 1970’s.  When it was determined that Trestman wasn’t going to become an NFL Quarterback, he decided to pursue a law degree, and became a volunteer coach at the University of Miami.  After a few years of service, Trestman was promoted to Quarterbacks Coach of the Miami Hurricanes in the year 1983.  Success followed upon this promotion as the pairing of Trestman and Quarterback Bernie Kosar helped lead Miami to a National Championship, and Kosar passed for several school records while ultimately becoming a Heisman finalist!  The success shared by Kosar and Trestman at Miami would not end up being the only success that the two share together during their careers.

Next Stop: The NFL

            Trestman’s success at Miami helped bring him to the NFL as a coach a few years later in the mid 1980’s.  After a couple of brief assistant coaching jobs with the Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bucs, Trestman would find himself reunited with quarterback Bernie Kosar in 1988 with the Cleveland Browns.  Success came once again for both Trestman and Kosar as the Browns went to the AFC Championship game, and Kosar was one of the top passers in the NFL during this time.  Various disagreements with Browns Head Coach Bud Carson ultimately led to Trestman leaving the Browns, but his reputation as an innovative offensive mind was now well known in NFL circles. Here’s a picture of Trestman as Offensive coordinator of the Browns back in the late 1980′s:

Later on the mid 1990’s Trestman resurfaced as Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks Coach for the San Francisco 49ers.  Trestman and starting quarterback Steve Young led the 49ers to league highs in passing yards and points scored during his time there in 1995 and 1996.  Trestman’s once again had led the league in several offensive categories, and success was achieved with another quarterback.  Trestman’s remarkable trend continued later on in 1997 as quarterbacks coach of the Detroit Lions, where quarterback Scott Mitchell had a career passing year, and later on in 1998 with the Arizona Cardinals as then quarterback Jake Plummer had a career year under Trestman and the team made the playoffs for the first time in quite awhile.  Multiple coaching stints followed for Trestman, most notably in 2001 and 2002 when Trestman was Offensive Coordinator and Quarterbacks Coach for the Oakland Raiders, a time in which Oakland Quarterback Rich Gannon became NFL MVP, led the Raiders to a Super Bowl appearance, and led the NFL in several passing and offensive categories.  Other stops with the Miami Dolphins in 2004 and North Carolina State  in 2005 gave Trestman a rather decorated coaching portfolio, but it wasn’t until 2007 that he’d actually become a Head Coach somewhere.

Oh Canada!!!

            Marc Trestman eventually was able to score his first Head Coaching job in the year 2007, in the Canadian Football League.  Trestman coached the Montreal Alouettes of the CFL for 5 years through the 2012 season, and quickly became one of the greatest coaches in the history of the Canadian Football League.  In 5 seasons as Head Coach of the Montreal Alouettes, Trestman compiled a 59-31 record and made the playoffs each season.  It was during this 5 year time that Trestman’s Alouettes won 4 division titles and 2 Grey Cup Championships.  Much like the rest of his coaching stops, a quarterback had great success under Marc Trestman, and in this case it came from little known quarterback (in the U.S.) named Anthony Calvillo.  The Montreal combo of Trestman and Calvillo turned out to be a great match, as Calvillo shattered many passing records in the CFL, won multiple MVP awards, Grey Cups, and ultimately became the all time leading passing yards leader in professional football history!!!  Here are a couple of highlight videos of Montreal Alouettes football under Marc Trestman, the first shows highlight of Montreal’s Grey Cup win over in 2010, and the 2^nd video highlights a 2012 game where Montreal had a real offensive explosion in a victory over Calgary.

2010 Grey Cup – Montreal vs. Saskatchewan

2012 – Montreal vs. Calgary

Concerns about Trestman??

                After seeing Marc Trestman’s long resume, which included quite a few stops on different teams and in multiple leagues, one may wonder why the guy never stayed in one place too long, or never received a Head Coaching job until recently.  My feeling on this is that professional football has so many regime and coaching changes, that it is quite possible that a coach like Trestman to bounce around between different teams without settling somewhere.  Coaches and General Managers change much more frequently nowadays, and it could be easy for teams to overlook someone like Trestman who is now older and may not be fresh, or the “next big thing” like many of these younger coaches may appear to be to NFL franchises. Certain Head Coaches also may have felt threatened by having Trestman on their staff, as he always seemed to be a popular head coach in waiting wherever he went.  The success in Montreal really helped to ease many concerns about Trestman, as he achieved great success as a head coach in professional football,  not quite the NFL, but close.  Many former NFL star coaches and players spent time working or playing in the CFL, so it isn’t like the CFL is terribly far behind the NFL as far as talent goes.  Bears fans still are Bears fans however, and as you can see in this cartoon, it will still take some work to convince some fans about the hiring of Marc Trestman.  J

2013: Chicago Bears

                Despite a 10 win season in 2012 and an overall winning record with the team, The Bears fired Head Coach Lovie Smith after the 2012.  Concerns over the offensive direction of the team seemed to play a large part in the firing of Smith and eventual hiring of Trestman, as the Bears finished rather low in NFL ranking in most offensive categories during this season.  With a roster that included offensive impact players like Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and Brandon Marshall, a low offensive ranking and missed playoff appearance became too much for Lovie Smith and his staff to survive .  The pressure immediately goes on Marc Trestman, as expectations are high for Trestman to bring the Bears back to the playoffs and contend right away.  Here is a quick look at how I see the dynasty values of key Bears players changing under new head coach Marc Trestman.

Quarterback – Jay Cutler

                Jay Cutler has frustrated many Bears fans and dynasty owners throughout the years, as most seasons he’s seemed to fall below expectations, while there seems to be quite a bit of potential in Cutler and his arm.  Trestman has immediately stressed greater pass protection for Cutler , and the team has upgraded the offensive line in several positions.  Cutler finished in the bottom half of the league in several passing categories last season, and a lack of pass protection can certainly be blamed for some of his struggles.  Trestman’s remarkable track record working with quarterbacks at many different levels has me very excited about Cutler’s potential as a dynasty fantasy quarterback.  I’d expect Cutler to improve in many areas, and move closer to the QB1 status that he was earlier in his career.  Considering how many quarterbacks that Trestman has gotten career years out of, the odds are good that Cutler will join that group.  Buy low on Cutler and don’t be surprised if you see him as a QB1 once again.

Running back – Matt Forte

                Matt Forte owners have to be very optimistic about Marc Trestman, as we keeping hearing Trestman praise Matt Forte as being the featured back, but in addition Trestman keeps talking about how Forte should expect an increase in receptions this coming season.  Trestman has stressed how Forte could be seeing a lot of short, high percentage passes, and he could threaten his career high in catches this coming season, which was 63 catches back in 2008.  While Michael Bush is still a threat for goal line carries at times, Forte owners should still be very happy with his increases presence in the passing game and increased receptions.  At the age of 27, dynasty owners could still expect a few RB1 or high end RB2 caliber seasons from Matt Forte.

Wide Receivers – Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, Tight End Martellus Bennett

                Brandon Marshall has remained an absolute stud, top-tier receiver, even when his team’s total offense has been down.  Optimism should remain high that Marshall maintains his WR1 status during the Trestman era, as Jay Cutler has always had a great connection with Marshall throughout their years in Chicago and Denver.  One big thing to watch for this coming season is the development of 2^nd year Wide Receiver Alshon Jeffery.  Jeffery had a rough rookie season in Chicago, as he battled injuries and concerns over his conditioning, but seems to have a much better outlook going into the 2013 season.  Conditioning and injury issues seem to be behind him, and Brandon Marshall has started to serve as a nice mentor for Jeffery, as he matures.  Jeffery is expected to start at WR2 for the Bears this season, and appears to be ready for a breakout in this pass-happy offense.  Finally, new Tight end Martellus Bennett signed a 4 year deal this offseason with Chicago, and hopes to build on a career year last season in New York.  Trestman has talked about stretching the field vertically with Martellus Bennett, hoping to create mismatches, and become another top receiving threat.  The Bears will give Bennett every chance to succeed and become a top –tier receiving option in this offense.

Conclusion

                Looking at the different trend s we’ve seen from Marc Trestman’s coaching career leaves a great sense of optimism about his offense in Chicago.  Trestman coached teams have a reputation of scoring a lot of points, totaling a lot of yards, and especially doing well in the passing category.  With playmakers like Jay Cutler, Matt Forte,  Brandon Marshall, and others already in place, Trestman should have no trouble improving their numbers on a disappointing 2012 campaign.  I’d suggest that any dynasty owners buying these core Bears players will be rewarded for their investment as the thought of this Chicago offense realizing its potential could make Bears fans and dynasty owners very happy.  In Marc Trestman we Trust!!

There are tons of ways to play the game of fantasy football.  That is part of what makes it such a fun and exciting hobby.  Everyone is clamoring for position and they’re doing it their own way.  Whether it be taking a fairly conservative approach or going “balls to the wall” the way we play has a way of defining us.  It defines who we are to our league mates, on fantasy football message boards we frequent, and maybe even in our own eyes a little.  I would argue that the way we play the game is a microcosm of our own personalities.  A shadow of what we are in our real lives.

Take my outlook for example.  I play a fairly conservative game.  I prefer to sit tight in a draft and let value fall to me.  I love plucking the best guy available at my spot and using ADP and VBD to define my draft as I go along.  Unless there’s a guy I really like I will resist trading up and giving up value when I could stay put and let value simply fall to me.  Likewise I tend to seek value and current production over potential and risk in trades.  In doing so I ensure myself that the risk present on my team remains at manageable levels while still allowing my production to stay top tier.  Now it isn’t all positive with this approach.  Oftentimes I find myself waiting for a player to prove himself before jumping on him.  I don’t immediately buy into sudden production or positive comments by the coaching staff.  Usually this means I’m not hitting on the Victor Cruz’ or Arian Fosters of the world because someone else was willing to jump at a whim.  Another negative side effect of a conservative approach is that it almost always ensures you’re in the race but it limits the upside and potential firepower you have to win it all any given year.

Now if I put my psychologist hat on I find that this approach likens itself a lot to my real life personality.  I’m a bit conservative by nature.  Not politically maybe (God help us if this article turns into a political discussion).  I tend to favor the known over the unknown.  The safe way over the riskier one.  It makes it easier to know what to expect out of each decision and keeps life at a nice, even status quo.  So in my case my personality is definitely represented by my style of play.  I’m not saying I don’t make big moves, trade for guys I believe in, and take chances now and again.  Just that I limit their scope and number so that I can ensure I’m always competitive even if the worst should happen.

Don’t get me wrong; limiting risk is something we all do.  It just varies based on degree.  Someone who plays a more conservative game limits risk to a great extent.  The opposite approach would have one taking chances, making big plays, and allowing for a high degree of risk on a team.  Jaysports is an example I can bring up of someone who plays this type of style.  He isn’t afraid to make big moves and is constantly wheeling and dealing to get what he wants.  I’m not saying he fails to limit his risk.  Just that he does it to a lesser extent.  And since joining one of my leagues 4 years ago he’s won the title 3 times to my 1 so the approach is definitely working.  Now does that reflect Jay’s personality or not?  You’d have to ask him but I suspect it does at least to a certain extent.

So now that you’ve seen a couple of examples the question is does the way you play the game truly reflect personality or not?  In most cases I think it does.  Some people use it as an outlet to act differently than they would in their real life.  This probably isn’t an uncommon occurrence and gives you the ability to play differently than your personality would otherwise define.  After all, it is a game.  It isn’t real life.  In fact, when in multiple leagues it’s often a good idea to play different leagues a little differently.  Your team makeup and competition can definitely impact the technique that you decide to employ.

As I said earlier there are any number of approaches that span from risky to conservative and include everything in between.  All techniques and styles of playing fantasy football can be successful or can fail.  Much like personality it’d be boring if we were all the same and did the same things.  Different approaches allow for player movement in the form of trades, different draft approaches, and starting lineup decisions.  They enrich the fantasy experience and make us all enjoy fantasy football a little more.

So how do you play the game?  Do you lean more toward the risky or the conservative side of things?  Does that reflect your personality or not?  Do you mix it up in multiple leagues or remain consistent?  Does the way we play fantasy football define us?  Or do we define the way we play fantasy football?  I’d love to hear your thoughts and start up a discussion here in the comments or in our forums.  Hit me with your thoughts.

Concussions are a problem that has plagued the National Football League (NFL) for years but have mostly gone unnoticed by the public eye up until recently. The NFL has always neglected to accept the fact that the game that Americans love so much is taking such a toll on the heads of the players.

One contributing factor to the increasing number of concussions is the size of the players.  According to Chase Stuart, a contributor for Pro-Football Reference, the average weight of offensive and defensive lineman was around 250 pounds in the 1970s while the weight of an offensive lineman today averages well over 300 pounds.  There have also been slight increases at the other positions such as linebacker, running back, and quarterback. One would assume that since players are getting larger that would in turn make them slower.  Wrong.  Players now are faster and stronger than they have ever been before.  These two factors play an essential role in concussions.  The amount of force caused by a collision is calculated by multiplying mass by acceleration.  Football players have increased in size while traveling at faster speeds, thus contributing to the possibility for a greater number of concussions being suffered on a weekly basis.  According to Jason M. Breslow, there were 9.2 concussions suffered on a weekly basis during the 2012 NFL season, but this number is down from previous years.  While concussions have directly contributed to players unexpectedly retiring from the NFL because of medical issues resulting from playing the game, the NFL has responded in recent years by instituting policy and rule changes in an effort to decrease the number of concussions.

The NFL’s neglect toward concussions took a turn toward improvement in the spring of 2007.  Roger Goodell, the new rookie commissioner had just taken over his new role in the NFL front office with a stack of problems that had just been dropped in his lap by Paul Taglibue, the previous commissioner.  Most notably, Goodell had to take care of the glaring problem that concussions were presenting.  According to Linda Carroll and David Rosner, to become informed about the issue, Goodell scheduled a meeting that would include health and training representatives from all thirty-two teams.  Also included in this informational summit were doctors not affiliated with the NFL in any way who could bring their perspective to the table as well.  One of the latter was a neurosurgeon, Dr. Julian Bales, who had been previously employed with the Pittsburgh Steelers.  His presentation proved the NFL’s stance on concussions, most notably on chronic brain damage, misguided, incomplete, and frankly, dead wrong (245-46). According to two studies he authored and conducted with Kevin Guskiewicz, a concussion expert for the University of North Carolina, evidence showed the holes in the NFL’s argument that there is no link between the game of football and chronic brain damage:

One [study] showed that retirees with at least three concussions were three times more likely to be diagnosed with depression than those with no history of head injury; the other showed that retirees with at least three concussions were three times more likely to suffer from significant memory problems and five times more likely to be diagnosed with the pre-Alzheimer’s condition mild cognitive impairment. (Carroll and Rosner 246)

The NFL, of course, paid no attention to these claims and the NFL’s chairman for the Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Committee, Dr. Ira Casson found himself in a few back and forth heated altercations with Dr. Bales. A few months prior Dr. Casson had adamantly denied several questions in interviews about concussions and their long-term effects on NFL players.  To prove that he wasn’t just going to sit back and do nothing about this problem, Commissioner Goodell announced new standards that the NFL would adhere to from there on out:

• Instituted neuropsychological baseline testing for all players before each season (adopted model from National Hockey league who has been using it for over a decade
• Stipulated that players who were knocked unconscious could no longer be returned to action the same day.
• Mandated that return-to-action decisions be based on health rather than being based on “wanting to win” and “what is best for the team”.  Decisions also needed to only be made only by team medical personnel without pressure from external influences.
• Instituted a “whistleblower” hotline enabling anyone (player, coach, or anyone else) to anonymously call and report an infraction of any of the above rules by any given team. (Carroll and Rosner248)

This was a big deal in the sports media and made a big statement for the NFL, and more importantly, for Roger Goodell.  Though he was early in his term as commissioner, he chose to be proactive about the problem and did not allow the problem to become more complicated, as it had in years past.  As a result of his findings, he wanted to make a change, and this was the first step of many to do so.

The second step stemmed from an incident that took place about two and a half years later in the Rayburn House Office Building on Capitol Hill.  Roger Goodell, in defense of his NFL doctors, stood in front of a crowd of people and fielded and deflected numerous questions with typically the same answer that he had used to dismiss any link between the game and brain trauma, impairment, and dementia (Carroll and Rosner 252). He faced several questions from numerous people in well-regarded professions such as doctors and lawmakers. Representative Linda Sanchez compared the NFL to tobacco companies and their handling of the effects of cigarettes during the session.  Additionally, Representative Maxine Waters made an eye-opening comment to Roger Goodell in which she told him, “I think you’re an eight-billion-dollar organization that has not taken seriously your responsibility to the players. I know you do everything you possibly can to hold on to those profits but I think the responsibility of this Congress is to take a look at the antitrust exemption you have and take it away” (qtd. in Carroll and Rosner 252-53). This would result in a monumental loss of revenue for the NFL.  The thought of losing billions of dollars in revenue would cripple the league on many levels. According to John Bresnahan, this antitrust exemption is what allows the NFL to negotiate its very profitable TV deals with various broadcast networks.  This is something that no other sport can do, so of course, the league, and more importantly Roger Goodell, seriously noted Waters’ comment.

After this most recent thrashing, Commissioner Goodell had to go on the offensive again, this time instituting in 2009 more comprehensive changes than he made in 2007.  He was no longer denying, denying, denying.  This time Goodell insisted, “We [the NFL] are changing the game for the better” (qtd. in Carroll and Rosner 253).  In late November of 2009, Goodell announced his second series of changes that served to better protect the NFL players while setting the standard for football across America, no matter the age group or organization.  “The NFL would now require that outside neurologists and neurosurgeons independently clear concussed players, taking return-to-pay decisions out of the sole control of team physicians who were vulnerable to conflict-of-interest pressures from their employers. . . . the NFL would now require players with any significant sign of concussion to be removed from a game or practice and be barred from returning same day” (Carroll and Rosner 254).  This was a big step toward the NFL progressing toward correcting a wrong for which it had been scrutinized over the past ten years.  No longer would players be able to return to the game, as they previously had been, if they experience any concussion-like symptoms at all.  Gone are the days of going back into practice once the dizziness or headaches subsides.  If these rules are enforced, now is the time of a concussion aware league.

Not only has Roger Goodell established numerous policy changes, but also he has instituted a multitude of rule changes.  Wanting to address one of the most violent plays during the game, Commissioner Goodell first focused his efforts on making the highly concussion-prone kickoff a safer facet of the game. The initial change came in 2009 when Goodell made an announcement that prohibited the return team from using the wedge formation during kickoffs. The second followed in March of 2011, and after the labor talks had finished, two new rules had been finalized.  Because the kickoff is such a high impact play that has players going full speed from a running start and crashing into one another, no longer would players from the kicking team get an unlimited running start before the ball was kicked off; that distance had been lessened to five yards.  Additionally, the ball is to be kicked from the thirty-five yard line instead of the thirty.  The latter rule probably has more of a direct effect on lessening concussions as the players never usually had more than a ten-yard running start under the “unlimited distance” rule.  The extra five yards from which the ball was kicked increased the number of touchbacks, which lessened the number of kickoff returns resulting in fewer high impact plays.  According to Nate Jackson’s article “The NFL’s Concussion Culture” however, he believes this rule change was only instituted to allow the NFL to speak favorably about its intentions through various mass media outlets, similarly to what the league did in 2009 when they announced that the “wedge formation” would be banned on kickoffs (22).

The NFL definitely reached its goal of a 30 percent touchback rate on kickoffs.  According to Team Rankings, since the inception of the rule, the touchback rate has been 43.6 percent and 43.7 percent respectively in 2011 and 2012 (NFL). This rule  has yielded far better results than the league could have imagined.  More evidence shows that the number of concussions being suffered on kickoffs has been reduced by 43 percent since the league has implemented this change in 2011 (Breslow). The rule change can easily be seen as a success, though some players and coaches think it drastically devalues special teams, an important phase of the game.

The most recent collective bargaining agreement took the injury issue a step further.  This time the fight was directed toward the practice field. It was established that teams could no longer hold two-a day practices during training camp, lessening the wear and tear on the player’s bodies.  Also, teams would be able to hold only one full contact practice and one walkthrough per day.  Furthermore, teams could have only fourteen full contact practices during the regular season. One full contact practice would be allowed per week in weeks 1-11, while only three full contact practices would be allowed in the final six weeks, weeks 12-17 (Clemmitt).  Bucky Brooks, an analyst for NFL.com, argues that even though the league is taking these safety precautions, other parts of the game will inherently suffer because of these new restrictions. Without the increased number of repetitions at practice, Bucky predicts that tackling, the running game and the passing game will suffer the most.  These rule modifications are successively building a safer league one step at a time.  There will undoubtedly be more changes to come that teams will have to adjust to as the NFL institutes more rules in efforts to keep its players safe.

All of these changes have obviously been emplaced for good reason. One good reason is that retired professional football players are suffering from the effects of Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE).  It is being discovered that not only do concussions inflict pain while causing unwanted side effects such as dizziness and nausea, but also they cause temporary memory loss, headaches and in the most severe cases, CTE.   CTE normally develops in individuals who have been exposed to heavy blows to the head. Thought only to be a boxing related injury, studies now show that the brains of former NFL players have the same characteristics of this deadly brain disease.   The one drawback in diagnosing the disease is that it normally can only be accomplished once the individual is deceased and his brain has been subjected to dyes and other compounds that detail the amount of the malicious protein, tau, found throughout the brain’s tissue.  Additionally, in most cases, the symptoms associated with CTE may not even show up for at least twenty years after the individual has retired from the NFL (Carroll and Rosner 212-44). Depression, paranoia, aggression and impaired judgment are just a few of the deadly side effects from CTE that have led to the deaths of former NFL players, Mike Webster, the vaunting offensive lineman who played for the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 1970s; Terry Long, who played alongside Webster; and Junior Seau, who had recently committed suicide in 2012. These are just a few of the many who have suffered from CTE, and more potential cases are being discovered monthly through research.

It is evident that the NFL is in the midst of a makeover.  The league has instated several policy and rule changes to combat concussions and its effects. However, the challenge lies in where the NFL goes from here.  There will undoubtedly be more rule and policy changes to be made, but what the NFL and Roger Goodell have to be mindful of is keeping the integrity of the game intact.  Commissioner Goodell has already briefly broached the possibility of getting rid of kickoffs all together.  This would be a very controversial and bold move as the kickoff, and special teams, is an integral part of any football game.  It is also rumored that independent neurologists will be on the sidelines next year to help with the diagnosing concussions.  This would be an improvement from team hired doctors as it would remove any bias from of the decision making process. In addition to the rule and policy changes, the NFL has contributed $130 million just this year alone in partnering with Harvard University and the National Institutes of Health to further research on traumatic brain injuries, CTE, and the effects of concussions on former players (Breslow).  Through these steps, the league continues to make concerted efforts to fix this neglected problem that has compounded exponentially with the evolution of the game.   Hopefully any future changes the NFL decides to make will keep the integrity of professional football, which Americans love so much, intact.

Works Cited

Breslow, Jason M. NFL Concussions: The 2013 Season in Review. PBS, 1 Feb. 2013. Web. 11 Mar. 2013.

Bresnahan, John. “Conyers seeks to get rid of NFL’s antitrust exemption” Politico.com. Politico, 14 Mar. 2011. Web. 9 Mar 2013.

Brooks, Bucky. “How Practice Changes Could Negatively Impact NFL Games.” NFL.com. National Football League, 10 Aug. 2011. Web. 9 Mar. 2013.

Carroll, Linda, and David Rosner. The Concussion Crisis. New York: Simon, 2011. Print.

Clemmitt, Marcia. “Traumatic Brain Injury.” 22:20 (2012): 477-500. CQ Researcher. Web. 5 Feb. 2013.

Jackson, Nate. “The NFL’s Concussion Culture.” Nation 293.7/8 (2011): 22-23. Academic Search Premier. Web. 4 Feb. 2013.

“NFL Team Kickoff Touchback Percentage.” Teamrankings.com Team Rankings, Web. 10 Mar. 2013.

Stuart, Chase. How Much Bigger are Players Now? n.p., 27 Feb. 2008 Web. 5 Mar. 2013.

We have hit early June and each team in the NFL has already held at least one session of OTAs (Organized Team Activities). OTAs gives coaches a chance to take their first look at the team’s free agent acquisitions, draft picks, unsigned draft picks and new wrinkles in their game plans. Of course, the media gets a hold of each players performance and the fantasy world eats up any positive or negative news.

DISCLAIMER: BEFORE YOU READ ANY FURTHER, KEEP THIS IN MIND…IT IS JUNE 5TH! What I mean by that is Dynasties are not born and Championships are not won, in early June. This info will give you an idea who to keep an eye, good or bad, on moving into the off season.

Stock Up
Ronnie Hillman
Ronnie Hillman is a guy I have had my eye on since my 2012 Rookie Drafts and I have continued to target him as we move along in the 2013 season. The 2nd year running back out of San Diego State was taking the first team reps at Denver’s OTAs last week, but that isn’t why I am excited about him in 2013 and on. Willis McGahee has a $2.5 million cap hit and Knowshon Moreno is still dealing with a bad knee. The Broncos spent a 2nd round pick on former All American Montee Ball and all signs point to him being the work horse in Denver. So, why do I like Ronnie Hillman? Montee Ball is going to get the carries, but Hillman will be in on most passing downs. At Wisconsin, Ball never had more that 24 catches in a season and was mainly used on running downs. While Hillman only maxed out at 24 catches at SDSU, his role was more along the lines of Ball’s in college. That will not be the case in Denver. Hillman will be a perfect change of pace back in the Denver offense.
In a Peyton Manning led offense, most downs are passing downs. Take a look at Edgerrin James and Joseph Addai. In their time with Manning, both saw plenty of passes come their way each game. I expect Hillman to be in on most 3rd downs and all hurry up situations. Dump offs will be aplenty and Hillman is a great cheap option in PPR leagues. I don’t think a 60 catch season is out of the realm of possibility if Hillman stays healthy.

Aaron Dobson
While Aaron Dobson has impressed some in Foxborough, it isn’t so much his play at OTAs that brings his stock up in my eyes. The fact that New England let Brandon Lloyd walk and have only brought in Michael Jenkins and Donald Jones via Free Agency, makes me think that Dobson is poised for success in New England. Danny Amendola should play the slot, so that leaves two outside WR spots open. Barring a Brandon Lloyd reunion or some unexpected trade for an outside wide out, I fully expect Dobson to grab one of those spots and contribute from Day 1. The turnover at WR has been rapid in New England, but I have to believe that Bill Bellichick is going to put the Patriots in a position to win now, and he feels Dobson can help them do that. If Dobson is starting from Week 1, a Mike Williams (TB) WR2/WR3 performance can be expected.

Montario Hardesty
The news out of Cleveland has been depressing (per usual) about stud Trent Richardson. While I’m not willing to stamp him as such yet, the term “injury prone” has been floated around here and there. The latest reports has Richardson sitting until August, in fear that he could develop a stress fracture. With T-Rich sitting, Montario Hardesty enters the picture as an interesting fantasy play. I’m not saying that Hardesty should be drafted anytime before the 15th round, but if you are a Richardson owner, grabbing Hardesty should be your #1 priority.
Hardesty has had a pretty well known injury bug himself. and cannot be relied on. However, Norv Turner has revamped the Cleveland offense and the RBs should be direct benefactors of that. I think that 2013 will be the year that Browns players are finally done being shunned in your fantasy draft. Whoever is starting at RB in Cleveland should be a PPR darling in 2013 and moving forward. If Hardesty is available, and/or you have Trent Richardson in the driver’s seat of your fantasy squad …what are you doing? Go pick up Hardesty!

Denard Robinson
Another very interesting rookie that seemed to have fallen to the perfect team. Let’s be real here. Jacksonville is a putrid offensive football team. Blaine Gabbert should not be a starting QB (he got out played by Chad Henne…yikes) in the NFL, MJD is busy punching people in the face and Justin Blackmon…well who knows what the hell he did do warrant a 4 game suspension. Jacksonville needs play makers and I think that is Denard Robinson can be that for them. I’m not sure what his role will be, but if they can get the ball in his hands 10-15 time a game, that could translate into flex numbers for your fantasy squad.

Stock Down
Delanie Walker
I love the idea of Delanie Walker getting the chance to start somewhere. He seemed to always make a big play every time I got the chance to catch a 49ers game. Unfortunately, a tweaked knee may have spoiled that idea. I’m not ready to write him off before he received an MRI, but an early injury + a new system + starting for the first time in your career, generally doesn’t end with success. I’m hoping that the injury is minor and Walker is able to put up TE1/TE2 numbers.

Keenan Allen
I was afraid that the Keenan Allen pick by San Diego would mean that 2012 Off Season Hype Man Vincent Brown would be an afterthought. Well, apparently Allen’s knee has not fully healed and he is sitting behind Danario Alexander, Malcolm Floyd and Brown on the depth chart. It is not to say that the guys in from of Allen are Iron Men themselves, but OTAs are an important time for rookies to get on the same page with veterans and get comfortable with the playbook. Any time that Keenan Allen misses will be a concern to me.

Isaiah Pead
And the hits keep on coming for Isaiah Pead. First, he can’t participate in 2012 OTAs because of a bogus college graduation rule and now he gets popped with a one game suspension after Steven Jackson leaves town. The good news is the suspension is only for one game, but the bad new is Pead may be back in Jeff Fisher’s dog house. In 2012, Pead only received 10 carries all season, as he was jumped by fellow rookie and 7th round pick Darryl Richardson for back up duty behind RB1 Steven Jackson.This year, I wouldn’t be surprised if both Ricahrdson and rookie Zac Stacy (maybe you’ve heard of him if you read this site) jump Pead for playing time, and never look back.

Pierre Garcon
Pierre Garcon injured…shocker! While it isn’t the shoulder issue that is hampering Garcon, the foot issue from 2012 apparently hasn’t healed completely and  recently flared up. Garcon is one of those players that I let come and go in Free Agency and Drafts without making a move. Do yourself a favor and let him be someone else’s headache. The talent is absolutely there, but the consistency is not.

Cordarrelle Patterson
Minnesota has come out and said that they will bring Cordarrelle Patterson along slowly and he will start off the year behind Jerome Simpson on the depth chart. I don’t think this is necessarily a bad thing, but his stock still takes a hit. Some owners may bypass Patterson to grab a player who will produce in Week 1 (Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter etc…) and if that is the case, make sure you find a way to move up for Patterson. I think that his rookie year may be a tough pill to swallow, but have patience and feel rewarded when he becomes a WR2 with WR1 potential in 2014.

Again, take these with a grain of salt. A LOT can happen between now and when Week 1 rolls around. Keep the conversation going by contacting me on Twitter or in the comments below.

Welcome back to the series where we learn things the hard way so you don’t have to.  This time around I’m going to write about something that we are all very familiar with.  Many times in a negative way.  Prompt payment is a must for any fantasy football league.  And here is why.

I’ve commished fantasy football leagues since the mid 90’s.  Since 1996 to be exact.  In the beginning it started out as a league with friends.  As such I wasn’t nearly as diligent at collecting league dues as I am today.  After all these guys are my friends.  If I don’t get payment in time I’ll just go to their house and bump some heads.  I suspect most of us started fantasy football in a similar way.  It’s a game and was treated as such when we were younger, dumber, and just cared less.

As time went on the inevitable turnover that comes with a long-running fantasy league began to rear its ugly head.  As new people come on the friendship factor becomes more and more vague.  Either that or people move away, get married, have kids and life takes its twists and turns for all of us.  Either way the result is the same.  Prompt payment of league dues becomes harder and harder to achieve every single year.

And here’s where the hard knocks takes place.  A couple years ago I didn’t receive league dues from one of my owners.  At all.  That means I as commissioner had to fund that spot and cover the extra payout amount that year.  I felt it was my responsibility since I hadn’t done my due diligence and demanded payment up front.  It all ended up ok for me because the owner paid double dues the following year but it doesn’t always work out so well.  I’ve heard of leagues disbanding, people taking money and running, someone drafting a team and then quitting, and various other sordid tales.  I’m sure many of you have similar stories and not a one of them good.

Of course as my obsession with fantasy football grew I needed to branch out to the online community as well.  My friends weren’t all into dynasty.  Not necessarily into the hardcore leagues and so I found my way into leagues with people I don’t even know.  The same logic applies here but it applies ten-fold.  Giving someone you don’t know money and expecting it in return is a big deal.  Similarly demanding payment and expecting said payment from total strangers can be a practice in frustration.

So with that in mind this lesson isn’t just applicable for owners getting their league dues in on time.  It is also for commissioners paying out winnings as promptly as possible.  I’ve been in and seen too many situations where payouts didn’t occur within a reasonable time period.  Sometimes they don’t occur at all.  So what do you do?

Well, the lesson here is no matter who you’re playing with or for how long you’ve played demand payment up front.  Nothing starts until all league dues are collected.  No redraft draft, startup dynasty draft, rookie draft, or offseason waivers happen until the money is collected for the following year.  It sounds as basic as can be but it’s amazing how many times this gets overlooked because we’re too excited to get things rolling.  Even if you’re playing with close friends it’s better to be safe than sorry.

Also, either have an extremely reputable commish (either recommended by someone you know or an actual trustworthy friend) or use leaguesafe.com.  This ensures not only that dues are paid on time but that winnings get paid out automatically at the end of the season.  It sends the annoying payment reminders to individual owners so that you don’t have to.  Even making them pay a late fee if they don’t pay in time.

So what are your experiences with prompt payment?  Have you had good luck or bad?  I know some of you have horror stories to share.  Hopefully whether you’re new to fantasy football or have been doing it forever this lesson rings true for you.  Maybe for some of you it’ll prevent you from learning the same lesson that I did.  The hard way.

By the Numbers – 28 Rookie Drafts

By Leo Paciga – @FFHoudini

So far in this off season, I’ve participated in 28 rookie drafts stretching from April 28th (the day after the NFL draft) right up through the end of May.  Those 28 drafts took place in solid, established 12 team dynasty leagues with pretty standard roster requirements and PPR scoring which creates a consistent base line.  Those leagues also have a great cross section of knowledgeable owners who aren’t afraid to break from the prescribed “group-think” rankings if they want a certain player.   I thought now would be a great time to take a look back at those drafts, dig into some data, crunch the numbers and identify a few patterns.

Below are the 17 rookies that finished with the most consistent numbers in relation to draft position.  I’ve listed the player’s ADP (Average Draft Position) and in parenthesis I’ve placed their highest and lowest draft selections.  All the numbers are based on 12 team leagues so the 1st round consists of picks 1 – 12 and the second round consists of picks 13 – 24.

Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals / ADP 1.96  ( Highest, 1.01 – Lowest, 1.04 )  -  Gio was a top four selection in every single draft and also finished as the top overall selection in 10 of the 28 rookie drafts.  His fantasy value has remained steady as a top selection in dynasty rookie drafts since the NFL draft took place in April.  Even if Giovani Bernard begins the season in an initial timeshare with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, his skills as a receiver will make him fantasy football relevant right from the start of the 2013 season.

Tavon Austin, WR, Rams / ADP 2.35  ( Highest, 1.01 – Lowest, 1.05 )  -  Tavon Austin was the top overall selection in 8 of the 28 rookie drafts.  Dynasty owners love Austin’s upside and situation, especially in PPR leagues and the news from May OTAs only reinforces the notion the Rams plan to feature Tavon Austin early and often.  I certainly can’t fault any owner using the 1.01 on Austin and anything after 1.03 is simply a steal.

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings / ADP 3.25  ( Highest, 1.01 – Lowest, 1.06 )  -  Mr. Patterson’s draft position reflects the risk/reward value most dynasty owners place on him.  A very polarizing player, Cordarrelle Patterson was the top overall selection in 7 of the 28 rookie drafts, but was also selected 5th or 6th overall in seven of those same drafts.  With such a high ceiling, I have no problem spending the 1.01 on Patterson, even if I have to wait 2 years for that upside to fully manifest at the next level.

Le’Veon Bell, RB, Steelers / ADP 4.67  ( Highest, 1.01 – Lowest, 1.07 )  -  Le’Veon Bell and Montee Ball finished with exactly the same ADP and both players found themselves within the same draft range, always coming off the board between selections #1 and #7.  The only real difference between the two running backs was that Montee Ball took the 1st overall selection spot twice during 28 total drafts and Le’veon Bell did it only once.

Montee Ball, RB, Broncos / ADP 4.67  ( Highest, 1.01 – Lowest, 1.07 )  -  As mentioned above, similar players and similar draft results.  Most dynasty owners see Montee Ball and Le’Veon Bell as average talents in good situations, both able to produce solid fantasy football numbers over the next 2 or 3 seasons.  For most dynasty owners, they are the consolation prize attached to having a pick in the 1.04 – 1.07 range.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans / ADP 5.67  ( Highest, 1.02 – Lowest, 1.08 )  -  Never higher than 1.02, but never lower than 1.08, DeAndre Hopkins’ draft numbers mirror his fantasy football outlook – rock solid and super consistent.

Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers / ADP 5.60  ( Highest, 1.03 – Lowest, 1.09 )  -  Eddie Lacy is another polarizing player in this year’s draft class.  Some dynasty owners see Eddie Lacy as a feature running back for a potent offense, while others see Lacy as a potential injury risk with a very competent rookie teammate (Johnathan Franklin) sharing the workload in Green Bay.  Even with the question marks, Eddie lacy never dropped below 1.09 in any of the drafts.

Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers / ADP 9.53  ( Highest, 1.07 – Lowest, 2.02 )  -  Before Keenan Allen injured his knee (PCL) back in October 2012,  Allen was considered to be one the top WRs in this class and some would argue Keenan was actually at the top of the list.  Allen seems to be working his way back to being 100% healthy and his rookie draft value seems to have solidified in the 1.07 to 2.02 range.

Marcus Lattimore, RB, 49ers / ADP 10.53  ( Highest, 1.08 – Lowest, 2.03 )  -  Any owner drafting Marcus Lattimore does so with 2014 in mind and yet Lattimore still found a sweet spot at the end of the first round with an ADP falling between 1.10 and 1.11.  The lure of being the top running back in this class “IF” he regains his health seems to be very captivating as Lattimore fell out of the 1st round in only 5 of the 28 rookie drafts.

Johnathan Franklin, RB, Packers / ADP 10.78  ( Highest, 1.06 – Lowest, 2.06 )  -  Johnathan Franklin exhibited quite the fluctuation in draft range with a high draft spot of 1.06 and a low selection of 2.06.  While some dynasty owners remain somewhat skeptical of Franklin’s future role, other owners are “all in” and believe he will be the lead running back in Green Bay ahead of rookie teammate Eddie Lacy.

Justin Hunter, WR, Titans / ADP 11.0  ( Highest, 1.08 – Lowest, 2.04 )  -  There’s a lot to like about Justin Hunter’s skill set and his situation as the potential replacement to Kenny Britt should the Titans let Britt walk after the 2013 season.  Most dynasty owners understand the upside Hunter represents as evidenced by his draft numbers.  Justin Hunter was a 1st round selection 22 times in 28 drafts.

Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals / ADP 11.67  ( Highest, 1.09 – Lowest, 2.04 )  -  Personally, I have a hard time drafting a TE in the 1st round of any rookie draft.  Tyler Eifert finds himself on a team with a dominant WR#1 in A.J. Green, multiple role WRs and a solid (albeit unspectacular) TE in Jermaine Gresham.  With so many mouths to feed in a Bengal passing attack, Eifert wasn’t a player I targeted in any of my first round selections.  Many owners, however, disagreed with my take and used a 1st round selection on Eifert in 19 of the 28 rookie drafts.

Zac Stacy, RB, Rams  / ADP 13.32  ( Highest, 1.08 – Lowest, 2.06 )  -  As a dynasty owner, you either love Stacy’s skill set, style and situation……or you simply think he’s a 5th round RB with little chance of making any noise in the St. Louis rushing attack.  I’m a buyer and willingly jumped in and bought Zac Stacy at the end of the 1st round a few times.  Even with an emphasis on opening things up offensively in St. Louis,  I still believe Stacy is a great fit in that offense.

Christine Michael, RB, Seahawks / ADP 14.32  ( Highest, 1.08 – Lowest, 2.07 )  -  Michael is another player I love to snag at the end of the 1st round even though some dynasty owners may feel that’s too early for this often troubled running back.  Yes, he’s a luxury on a Seattle team with incumbents Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin already on the roster, but I believe Michael is also the RB in this class with the most long term upside.  Dynasty owners saw value associated with Christine Michael anywhere from 1.08 to 2.07.

Robert Woods, WR, Bills  / ADP 14.39  ( Highest, 1.10 – Lowest, 2.06 )  -  Over the course of 28 rookie drafts, Robert Woods’ most common draft spot was the 2.03 (7 times).  In fact, Woods was selected at either the 2.02 or the 2.03 a total of thirteen times which translates to 46% of the time.  Woods is a solid route runner and many dynasty owners feel there is a “polish” to Woods’ game that will translate well to the NFL.

Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers / ADP 15.74  ( Highest, 1.11 – Lowest, 2.08 )  -  Markus Wheaton is a great selection at the top of the 2nd round.  The former Oregon State receiver will step into the WR #3 role as a rookie and his speed, especially off the line of scrimmage, will make Wheaton a solid candidate to replace former Steeler Mike Wallace as the deep threat in the Pittsburgh offense.

Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots / ADP 15.42  ( Highest, 1.11 – Lowest, 2.09 )  -  I think folks avoiding Aaron Dobson will end up regretting it.  Some fantasy football owners worry about Dobson’s lack of college production in a pass happy offense while at Marshall and feel his “measurables” won’t translate to the NFL.  I think Dobson’s size/speed combination will endear Aaron to Tom Brady and Dobson will become a difference maker in that offense and a nightmare match up for smaller defensive backs.  Aaron Dobson went 2.05 or later ten times in 28 rookie drafts; that’s great value for a player who is being undervalued by many of the FF experts.

Again, the 17 players mentioned above were the most consistently drafted players in the first round and a half (top 20 or so picks) of 28 rookie drafts.  There were a few other names that popped up with some regularity around pick #20 – guys like Joseph Randle, Terrance Williams, Travis Kelce and Da’Rick Rogers.  Rogers is one of my favorite targets in the late 2nd round because he is one of the few players left on the board with 1st round upside.  Yes, Rogers is a UDFA (Undrafted Free Agent) and yes, Rogers comes with so much baggage that he’s the poster child for American Airlines, but I’m always looking for the high risk/high reward guy and I’d much rather take risks on potential than play it safe.  Rogers fits that description perfectly……amazing ability, high upside and tons of risk, but with a late 2nd round price tag, I’m buying in every rookie draft I can.

Well, hopefully taking a look back at all those rookie drafts provided some insight into the draft value of this rookie class.  You may or may not agree with my analysis on certain players, but hopefully you’ve at least enjoyed the article.  I encourage everyone out there to take the time to research players, watch some film and continue to actively improve your dynasty rosters.  The tools and opinions provided here at DFW can certainly help take your teams to the next level.  Feel free to contact me on Twitter @FFhoudini with any questions or comments.

Read more DFW articles by: Leo Paciga

Written By Sal Conti                                          Follow on Twitter: @SC2_DFW

It feels good to be back. Now, let’s get down to football.

Ryan Tannehill’s rookie season was disappointing, to say the least. His TD/INT ratio was a measly 12 to 13, he surpassed 300 passing yards in a game only once and he struggled against most above-.500 teams. As a whole his numbers were wildly unimpressive.

So why bother with the former Texas A&M Aggie?

Because Mr. Tannehill got some new toys to play with this off-season  Miami went out and signed receivers Brandon Gibson and Dustin Keller to multi-year deals. Those players are both serviceable do-it-all players that will provide Tanny with plenty of easy receptions.

But the big ticket signee was former Pittsburgh Steeler wide out Mike Wallace. Wallace will immediately be the number 1 receiver on a Dolphins team that hasn’t had a dominant receiver in a LONG, long time.

How does the addition of Wallace affect Tannehill’s fantasy stock? Can the former 8^th overall pick shape up into the franchise quarterback that the Dolphins expect him to be?

Before we do, let’s look at his attributes.

Tanny stands at 6’4” tall, weighing around 225 pounds; he definitely has the frame of a good NFL quarterback. While his accuracy was spotty on underneath and crossing routes, Tannehill threw the intermediate and deep passes surprisingly well, thanks to his strong arm and sound mechanics. From a physical standpoint, I really like his prospects going forward.

However, one factor of Tannehill’s game that I don’t like is his decision making. When playing quarterback, you don’t really have any time to ‘think’ about your passes. Most of Tannehill’s interceptions or negative yardage plays came as a result of over thinking.  Ryan needs to pick up blitzes better and get rid of the ball quicker. He doesn’t force the ball into heavy coverage enough for me to call it an issue; that will improve over time with experience.

Also, the addition of former Atlanta Falcons OT Tyson Clabo will make Tanny more at ease in the pocket; he was sacked 35 times last season, 7^th most in the NFL.

In my eyes, Tannehill will play like a top-15 quarterback or better in the immediate future. His fantasy stature will also increase. But how?

Here’s an interesting stat: Tannehill completed most of his passes, 84 of them, to the right sideline last season. This makes sense, as he excels at throwing the out route and the corner route. This bodes well for Wallace, who caught more passes near the right sideline, 21, than any other area of the field. Both players play to each other’s strongest areas on the field. I can picture the 15-20 yard gains right now while typing this.

Wallace also is a constant threat to score. He’s one of those receivers that ‘can’t be overthrown.’ He is classified as a deep threat, but if he gets room up the middle he can scurry on for another 20+ yards. Wide outs that can eat up yards after the catch make their quarterback MUCH more desirable in the fantasy realm (see Wes Welker with Tom Brady).

Is it possible that Tannehill could help Wallace just as much?

Wallace thinks so; in an interview with NBC Sports, he said that Tannehill “has a cannon, [and] can really fling it.” He also made the bold claim of saying that Tannehill has a stronger arm than his former QB, Ben Roethlisburger. Sounds like Tanny and Wallace have created the foundation for quite the tandem in Miami.

Overall, I really like Tannehill as a quarterback. He has the physical tools to become a great NFL QB, and with added confidence, could be a great quarterback in this league in a few years. The addition of multiple free agents will help Tanny improve, especially Mike Wallace and Tyson Clabo. Those two alone could push Tanny over the hump of mediocrity, and start his rise to stardom.

He’s a solid QB2 for me right now, and I’d buy low while the buying low is possible. By the end of the season, he could be a dark horse QB1 candidate for the next fantasy season.

I was looking through the post draft rookie ADP (Average Draft Position) and noticed some trends where certain players are being drafted too high and some too low. I decided to pick through the players and give you my feedback on which to let fall and who could possibly be a steal for your team.

Over-Valued

QB’s

There are not any QB’s being over drafted as of now. This may change if you have a late rookie draft and some other rookies are announced as starters.

RB’s

Montee Ball (ADP 1.05) – Not a major over draft but when he is the 4^th RB off the board, which tells me DeAndre Hopkins (my true love, as stated two weeks ago) is likely getting the shaft in favor of positional need. Montee is good, but as of now he hasn’t participated in any 1^st team practice snaps and could very possibly be in a RBBC. Keep in mind that Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno didn’t drop off the face of the earth just because Ball showed up.

Zac Stacy (ADP 1.12) – A 5^th round RB going at the 1.12… who would of seen this coming? I like Stacy and I see that he has potential to be a solid starter if given the workload. However, he is being drafted ahead of players like Justin Hunter, Aaron Dobson, Markus Wheaton, and Robert Woods. To me, Stacy is more of a mid to late 2^nd round pick. The history of RB’s drafted in the 5^th, 6^th, and 7^th round just isn’t on Zac’s side.* See bottom of page for RB’s taken in round 5 or later.

Denard Robinson (ADP 3.06) – He is not a RB. No matter how much fun he was running around as a QB in college, he certainly isn’t a RB. His ceiling is an all star kick returner like Devin Hester or Josh Cribbs.

WR’s

Cordarrelle Patterson (ADP 1.06) – I am not going to beat a dead horse, but (explain what “this” is) is two spots higher than I would even consider placing him. Two spots is a lot in round 1.

Da’Rick Rogers (ADP 3.06) – An undrafted, talented, boneheaded WR on a team that has a rookie QB and other more promising WR’s means he will be not be getting a chance soon. Da’Rick should be dropping to round 4 without much question.

TE’s

No tight end is being taken higher than where I would start considering them.

Under-Valued

QB’s

Tyler Wilson (ADP 4.05) – I think this is partially due to this QB class getting bashed so heavily. Tyler Wilson is solid and has been given praise so far in OTA’s. Seeing as Matt Flynn has in no way locked down the QB1 position, Wilson could very easily end up taking the starting spot by the end of the year. You mean I can draft a starting QB in the 4^th round? Sign me up!

Mike Glennon (ADP 4.12) – While not uncommonly going undrafted, Glennon is another QB who could end up being the starter by 2014. Schiano is in no way enamored by Freeman and keeps publicly saying he isn’t impressed. If Glennon plays his cards right, while Tampa has another average season, we could easily see Glennon under center in 2014.

RB’s

There are not any RB’s being under drafted, as everyone knows the importance of the position and what difference a starter can make on your team.

WR’s

DeAndre Hopkins (ADP 1.06) – DeAndre is a really solid WR on a team with a need for someone opposite of Andre Johnson. As I highlighted two weeks ago, DeAndre is worth a 1.02 if you truly draft BPA and enjoy the safe pick.

Robert Woods (ADP 2.05) – When you are a good player and Lattimore and Zac Stacy are being taken before you, then you are being under drafted. Woods is a solid receiver who is even better for ppr leagues and is in the same tier as Hunter, Wheaton, and Dobson. At the 2.05, Woods is nothing but a steal.

Tavarres King (ADP 4.11) – Yes, I am aware he is on the Broncos who are currently loaded at WR at the moment. However, King is a receiver who will benefit from a little time on the bench and may end up being the #2 receiver for the Broncos by 2015. Welker isn’t getting younger and Decker’s contract ends soon which spells opportunity for a young WR who can be picked up in the late 4^th round.

TE’s

Travis Kelce (ADP 3.01) – While Kelce may enjoy smoking a bowl every once in a while, he is a good TE on a team that needs a starting TE. Kelce can catch and block and is very possibly better than Ertz who is also being drafted at the 3.01. Kelce in the late 2^nd would be a smart pick.

Dion Sims (ADP Undrafted) – Dion Sims isn’t even being drafted. This means he costs you nothing and within the next year you will see what he is worth. He sits behind Dustin Keller (who has a 1 year contract) on the Dolphins. A possible starting TE next season that you can get for free? Well, why wouldn’t you pick him up?

*Here are all the RB’s taken since ’09 in the 5^th round or later (excluding the 2013 class). (Any RB who has been fantasy relevant for a season is bolded) Chris Rainey, Vick Ballard, Alfred Morris, Cyrus Gray, Dan Herron, Terrance Ganaway, Michael Smith, Bryce Brown, Daryl Richardson, Edwin Baker, Johnny White, Jacquizz Rodgers, Evan Royster, Jordan Todman, Allen Bradford, Da’Rel Scott, Anthony Allen, Baron Batch, Jay Finley, Anthony Dixon, Deji Karim, Jonathan Dwyer, James Starks, Frank Summers, Javon Ringer, Cedric Peerman, Aaron Brown, James Davis, Benard Scott, Chris Ogbonnaya, Javarris Williams, Fui Vakapuna, LaRod Stephens-Howling, and Rashad Jennings.

Side note: Arian Foster was the only undrafted back worth anything from the past 4 seasons.

Do you have comments, questions, or concerns? Comment below and I will get back to you.