Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

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buckeye
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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby buckeye » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:30 pm

Ice wrote:If an owner can get a high floor WR that may only be a legit WR3 on a fantasy team with high WR 2 upside then he is worth the risk given his bust factor is much lower so the pick waste ratio as I like to say is low.
.

That's where I disagree. It's just a different approach. I'm just not going to waste valuable roster space on that type of player.

buckeye
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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby buckeye » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:33 pm

jordanzs wrote:Do we think the QBs will fall this far in actual rookie drafts?

What QBs? ;)

I think this year, QBs will definitely go late. I don't see a 1st rounder.

Ice
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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby Ice » Sat Mar 18, 2017 9:19 am

buckeye wrote:
Ice wrote:If an owner can get a high floor WR that may only be a legit WR3 on a fantasy team with high WR 2 upside then he is worth the risk given his bust factor is much lower so the pick waste ratio as I like to say is low.
.

That's where I disagree. It's just a different approach. I'm just not going to waste valuable roster space on that type of player.


I get it, from your comments you obviously think the player is a waste.

If you don't see the upside then you shouldn't make the pick to get the player.

The only difference here is valuation.

I see serious upside in today's NFL and you don't which is the only difference in approach.

If you saw Edelman, Welker, upside I am certain your view would change dramatically.

No reason to couch it any other way. Bottom line it is ALWAYS about an owners valuation of a player no matter how one chooses to spin a decision.

No issues if you just don't like the player.

My bottom line after considerable research is this player has all the tools needed to excel in fantasy within 3 years and maybe less.

If he busts then nothing new with 2nd round rookie picks.

buckeye
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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby buckeye » Sat Mar 18, 2017 10:19 am

Ice wrote:
buckeye wrote:
Ice wrote:If an owner can get a high floor WR that may only be a legit WR3 on a fantasy team with high WR 2 upside then he is worth the risk given his bust factor is much lower so the pick waste ratio as I like to say is low.
.

That's where I disagree. It's just a different approach. I'm just not going to waste valuable roster space on that type of player.

The only difference here is valuation.

No reason to couch it any other way. Bottom line it is ALWAYS about an owners valuation of a player no matter how one chooses to spin a decision.


Again, I disagree. I don't think you're fully understanding what I'm saying. It's not just valuation. In fact, I don't think we're far apart on valuation. i pretty much agree with this:

Ice wrote:I agree he may only ever be a teams #2 but the reality is a WR2 on some teams can have fantasy 1 or 2 upside.


I'm just not putting that type of player on my roster for 2-3 years. Yes, I miss out on Welker and Edelman. But I also miss out on the rest of them that turn out as players that are too mediocre to start but not crappy enough to drop and just worthless enough to not be able to trade.

dgulaitis
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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby dgulaitis » Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:12 pm

2.10 is on the clock. :-)
QB: Wentz, Goff, Luck
RB: LeVeon, Zeke, Howard, Kamara, Crowell, Drake, Kelley, Sims, Cohen
WR; OBJ, Evans, Hopkins, Diggs, Watkins, White
TE: Engram, Doyle, Olsen

Taxi: Clement, Ekeler, Samuel, Hollins

2018: 1.01 1.03, 2.01 2.06

buckeye
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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby buckeye » Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:27 pm

dgulaitis wrote:2.10 is on the clock. :-)

Easy to miss in the discussions but 2.10 went yesterday night. You're up.

dgulaitis
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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby dgulaitis » Sat Mar 18, 2017 1:24 pm

Malachi Dupre
QB: Wentz, Goff, Luck
RB: LeVeon, Zeke, Howard, Kamara, Crowell, Drake, Kelley, Sims, Cohen
WR; OBJ, Evans, Hopkins, Diggs, Watkins, White
TE: Engram, Doyle, Olsen

Taxi: Clement, Ekeler, Samuel, Hollins

2018: 1.01 1.03, 2.01 2.06

stardog
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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby stardog » Sat Mar 18, 2017 5:19 pm

it would be interesting to see how much this would change AFTER the draft
12 team 1 flex (RB,WR,TE) PPR
Ryan,Kessler,Lynch
Ajayi,Hill,Sims,Powell,Thompson,Richard
Diggs,Crabtree,Smith,Garcon,Coates,Conley,Carroo
Fiedorowicz,Higbee

Ice
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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby Ice » Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:43 pm

buckeye wrote:
Ice wrote:
buckeye wrote:
Ice wrote:If an owner can get a high floor WR that may only be a legit WR3 on a fantasy team with high WR 2 upside then he is worth the risk given his bust factor is much lower so the pick waste ratio as I like to say is low.
.

That's where I disagree. It's just a different approach. I'm just not going to waste valuable roster space on that type of player.

The only difference here is valuation.

No reason to couch it any other way. Bottom line it is ALWAYS about an owners valuation of a player no matter how one chooses to spin a decision.


Again, I disagree. I don't think you're fully understanding what I'm saying. It's not just valuation. In fact, I don't think we're far apart on valuation. i pretty much agree with this:

Ice wrote:I agree he may only ever be a teams #2 but the reality is a WR2 on some teams can have fantasy 1 or 2 upside.


I'm just not putting that type of player on my roster for 2-3 years. Yes, I miss out on Welker and Edelman. But I also miss out on the rest of them that turn out as players that are too mediocre to start but not crappy enough to drop and just worthless enough to not be able to trade.


Drafting Rookies is or should be 100% based on your player valuation.

Not drafting Dynasty Players with an eye on development is faulty logic.

buckeye
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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby buckeye » Sun Mar 19, 2017 8:15 am

Ice wrote:Drafting Rookies is or should be 100% based on your player valuation.


No game strategy involved at all? Isn't that like playing checkers?

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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby Ice » Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:13 am

buckeye wrote:
Ice wrote:Drafting Rookies is or should be 100% based on your player valuation.


No game strategy involved at all? Isn't that like playing checkers?


Even in checkers which looks like your game of choice based on your comments there is strategy.

Your justifications are actually on par with tic-tac-toe from my perspective :D

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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby buckeye » Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:20 pm

It doesn't look like hiteck22 is going to make the last pick so I'll go ahead and finish it off.

With the last pick and Mr. Irrelevant in the 1st post combine mock draft, the selection is . . . .

Cooper Kupp, WR

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Kybone
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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby Kybone » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:35 am

bobber56 wrote:
Ice wrote:If somebody doesn't take Krishawn Hogan soon I am going to stop reading this.

He will be a lock first round Dynasty Pick for the Sharks swimming the dynasty league waters.

Come on Guys! :think:


A lock? No chance he goes 1st round in dynasty mocks unless you are over drafting him. I just spent a good hour looking into him he's projected to be drafted at the earliest in the 4th round in actual draft. Most dynasty rookie rankings and mocks I've seen don't even have him in the top10 WR...one didn't have him in top15. And he didn't go in 1st or 2nd in any mock dynasty draft I saw.
He has NFL size, and he put up numbers in college...but he went to Marian University? Never even heard of that school, so I assume the competition he faced wasn't great...coupled with the fact that he is a good size means he likely dominated corners.


I know I'm a little late to this argument, but several thoughts here.

1) A "lock" may be a little much, but he's making a bold call

2) Mock drafts don't mean much at all, other than 1st round guys have a 50% chance to succeed and the success rate goes down each round. There are still successes though.
... Where were David Johnson, Stefon Diggs. Tyreek Hill, Jordan Howard, Tyler Lockett, Moncrief and Landry being drafted? (All 2nd round or later)

3) The argument against a small school or draft pedigree with WR is redundant when the top WR in the very same draft is from Western Michigan. There are several others that have come from small schools and had success.
3a) Antonio Brown - Central Michigan (6th)
3b) Stefon Diggs - Maryland (5th)
3c) TY Hilton - Florida International (3rd)
3d) Emmanuel Sanders - SMU (3rd)
3e) Julian Edelman - Kent State (7th)
3f) Willie Snead - Ball State (UFA)
3g) Cam Meredith - Illinois State (UFA)
3h) Pierre Garcon - Mount Union (6th)
3i) Chris Hogan - Monmouth (UFA)
3j) Tyrell Williams - Western Oregon (UFA)

It's a very sneaky pick and will be interesting to see how the hype continues leading up to the draft.

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Kybone
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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby Kybone » Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:51 am

buckeye wrote:I thought the original post was just sarcasm and as jordanzs mentioned, a play on Chris Hogan. I didn't realize you were serious.

He's almost identical in measureables and level of football to Jeff Janis. Janis played in Div II, about equal to NAIA. Both just over 6'2" and around 220. Janis was a little faster and a little better in the shuttle and cone. Both were similar in jumps. Both had very similar success at their schools and both were invited to the combine.

I can't imagine anyone taking him late 1st in FF. He have to be at least an NFL 2nd rounder to go that high. Janis was taken in the 7th. I'd expect him to also be a day 3 pick at best.


Wow the Jeff Janis comp. is pretty spot on based off the data alone (haven't looked at film just yet).

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Re: Post Combine Mock Draft- now Live

Postby bobber56 » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:58 am

Kybone wrote:
bobber56 wrote:
Ice wrote:If somebody doesn't take Krishawn Hogan soon I am going to stop reading this.

He will be a lock first round Dynasty Pick for the Sharks swimming the dynasty league waters.

Come on Guys! :think:


A lock? No chance he goes 1st round in dynasty mocks unless you are over drafting him. I just spent a good hour looking into him he's projected to be drafted at the earliest in the 4th round in actual draft. Most dynasty rookie rankings and mocks I've seen don't even have him in the top10 WR...one didn't have him in top15. And he didn't go in 1st or 2nd in any mock dynasty draft I saw.
He has NFL size, and he put up numbers in college...but he went to Marian University? Never even heard of that school, so I assume the competition he faced wasn't great...coupled with the fact that he is a good size means he likely dominated corners.


I know I'm a little late to this argument, but several thoughts here.

1) A "lock" may be a little much, but he's making a bold call

2) Mock drafts don't mean much at all, other than 1st round guys have a 50% chance to succeed and the success rate goes down each round. There are still successes though.
... Where were David Johnson, Stefon Diggs. Tyreek Hill, Jordan Howard, Tyler Lockett, Moncrief and Landry being drafted? (All 2nd round or later)

3) The argument against a small school or draft pedigree with WR is redundant when the top WR in the very same draft is from Western Michigan. There are several others that have come from small schools and had success.
3a) Antonio Brown - Central Michigan (6th)
3b) Stefon Diggs - Maryland (5th)
3c) TY Hilton - Florida International (3rd)
3d) Emmanuel Sanders - SMU (3rd)
3e) Julian Edelman - Kent State (7th)
3f) Willie Snead - Ball State (UFA)
3g) Cam Meredith - Illinois State (UFA)
3h) Pierre Garcon - Mount Union (6th)
3i) Chris Hogan - Monmouth (UFA)
3j) Tyrell Williams - Western Oregon (UFA)

It's a very sneaky pick and will be interesting to see how the hype continues leading up to the draft.


There is bold, and then there is calling a guy who should/could be drafted in a rookie 3rd round, a LOCK to be a 1st round pick.
Two your points 2-3...yes, we can name a handful of guys drafted in 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounds of rookie drafts that turn into studs...and we can name handfuls of guys from small schools drafted in the 3rd round or later in the real NFL draft that turn into studs...but for the 7 and 10 you named, how many drafted in those spots turn into NOTHING...the number would be significantly higher.
Using your 1st round pick in a draft should be spent on getting a high impact player that is most likely to succeed...the stabs in the dark should be left for the 3rd round or later.
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Roethlisberger, Ryan
Zeke, Ajayi, Powell, Henry
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