How much FAAB for Cohen?

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UNCProfesh
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How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby UNCProfesh » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:16 am

Hey DFW,

Have a wager question. So in one of my older 10 team dynasty leagues that I'm the heavy favorite I have an open bench spot due to Kevin White yet again landing on IR. I'm intrigued by Tarik Cohen. He's the kind of player who has potentially more value in my league since we reward 0.05 pts per return yard in addition to 0.5 PPR. My team is in the signature and is absolutely stacked already so not planning on too many waiver moves. I used $50 of $200 on previous moves to add Golladay (surprisingly went undrafted in three round rookie), Karl Joseph, and Chris Carson. I have $150 left. In this league the guys don't seem to know how to properly make bids (often only a couple bucks at a time, but the DJ owner who is need of RB now with him hurt is one that does routinely bet a lot.

Am I crazy for bidding $145 of my remaining $150 on Cohen. Again, don't really need him but want to capitalize when I can. Last year I landed Jordan Howard (traded away for Brandin Cooks)and Tyreek Hill the same way.

Thoughts?
0.5 PPR 0.05 rtrn yd
Brady,Carr
L.Bell, Gurley, Lynch, Mixon, CJ Anderson, Crowell,
AJG,M. Thomas,B. Cooks,T. Hill, Watkins, Golladay, Zay Jones, K.White
WR/TE elig Kelce, Henry
L.Kuechly, K.Alexander, Jatavis Brown
K.Mack
K. Joseph
Gostkowski

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the_captain
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Re: How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby the_captain » Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:50 am

Too rich for my blood. It was a nice week, but I'm not paying that kind of price for such an undersized back. He's the type of guy that I would never feel comfortable ever putting in my lineup.

UNCProfesh
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Re: How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby UNCProfesh » Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:12 pm

I hear that Cap. Its just that the wager behaviors of my league have been so unpredictable, and the return yardage component gives him a boost/bigger floor. There isn't much on the waiver pool, so trying to capitalize on one of the few moves. At a minimum, it looks like Cohen may end up being a heavily targeted receiver for Chicago in addition to his 8-12 carries.
0.5 PPR 0.05 rtrn yd
Brady,Carr
L.Bell, Gurley, Lynch, Mixon, CJ Anderson, Crowell,
AJG,M. Thomas,B. Cooks,T. Hill, Watkins, Golladay, Zay Jones, K.White
WR/TE elig Kelce, Henry
L.Kuechly, K.Alexander, Jatavis Brown
K.Mack
K. Joseph
Gostkowski

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Jaysports
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Re: How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby Jaysports » Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:23 pm

50% of total budget is what I would be willing to do for Cohen and it's a decent move with your team since that last spot is just a flyer spot for upside. But, the question is what happens if you need a bye week replacement for any positions where you only roster one player, who do you then drop?
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Re: How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby the_captain » Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:43 pm

UNCProfesh wrote:At a minimum, it looks like Cohen may end up being a heavily targeted receiver for Chicago in addition to his 8-12 carries.


You are forecasting FAR too much usage, imo. 8-12 carries? In a backfield with Jordan Howard? Langford had the 2nd most carries in that backfield a year ago with 62.

I don't like drawing conclusions of anything from one week. If he's still productive a month into the season then I consider a player like Cohen as a potential dynasty asset.

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Re: How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby Just4Fun » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:24 pm

the_captain wrote:
UNCProfesh wrote:At a minimum, it looks like Cohen may end up being a heavily targeted receiver for Chicago in addition to his 8-12 carries.


You are forecasting FAR too much usage, imo. 8-12 carries? In a backfield with Jordan Howard? Langford had the 2nd most carries in that backfield a year ago with 62.

I don't like drawing conclusions of anything from one week. If he's still productive a month into the season then I consider a player like Cohen as a potential dynasty asset.


A month into the season is far too late to make a move on guys. By then the price is absurd if he's truely legit. Now if your throwing big assets around then I would agree. Blind bid money isn't a big asset IMO while talking about potential big time players.

You will be hard pressed to find a waiver wire guy like this all season. Spend it but I would hold back 15 to 20 bucks. If someone bids more than that then they may have gone all in anyways

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Re: How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby Jaysports » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:30 pm

Just4Fun wrote:
the_captain wrote:
UNCProfesh wrote:At a minimum, it looks like Cohen may end up being a heavily targeted receiver for Chicago in addition to his 8-12 carries.


You are forecasting FAR too much usage, imo. 8-12 carries? In a backfield with Jordan Howard? Langford had the 2nd most carries in that backfield a year ago with 62.

I don't like drawing conclusions of anything from one week. If he's still productive a month into the season then I consider a player like Cohen as a potential dynasty asset.


A month into the season is far too late to make a move on guys. By then the price is absurd if he's truely legit. Now if your throwing big assets around then I would agree. Blind bid money isn't a big asset IMO while talking about potential big time players.

You will be hard pressed to find a waiver wire guy like this all season. Spend it but I would hold back 15 to 20 bucks. If someone bids more than that then they may have gone all in anyways

I thing this is a fair statement. I'm a gunslinger and you have to be bold to get some of these guys before the rest of the crowd believes it 4 weeks into the season after trends are assessed due to having 4 weeks worth of data. If you like what you see I'd go for him, I personally would keep it at 50% or $106ish.
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Re: How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby the_captain » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:00 pm

Just4Fun wrote:A month into the season is far too late to make a move on guys. By then the price is absurd if he's truely legit. Now if your throwing big assets around then I would agree. Blind bid money isn't a big asset IMO while talking about potential big time players.


I don't disagree if I felt that he had that kind of potential. I tend to be much more guarded with my decisions. My thinking is if we get a month into the season and he's what I expect then I'm going to regret burning almost my entire budget. It's uncommon for someone like Cohen first to become legit but more importantly remain so. I don't think he gets more than a half dozen touches a week and with so few of them he's going to need to sustain production with big plays.

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Re: How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby Just4Fun » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:55 pm

the_captain wrote:
Just4Fun wrote:A month into the season is far too late to make a move on guys. By then the price is absurd if he's truely legit. Now if your throwing big assets around then I would agree. Blind bid money isn't a big asset IMO while talking about potential big time players.


I don't disagree if I felt that he had that kind of potential. I tend to be much more guarded with my decisions. My thinking is if we get a month into the season and he's what I expect then I'm going to regret burning almost my entire budget. It's uncommon for someone like Cohen first to become legit but more importantly remain so. I don't think he gets more than a half dozen touches a week and with so few of them he's going to need to sustain production with big plays.


I see him as a Woodhead or Sproles type guy. Think they will try to get him 10-12 touches min. A game. (5-7 carries and 5-10 targets) depending on game situation. PPR obviously will be his best format. He also will be a guy that may give you some clunkers depending on game flow. However Chicago could be playing from behind a ton this year so his 4th quarters alone could be huge. Long term..... Never a bell cow so ceiling isn't like Zeke, Bell, DJ or Gordon type guys (not even Howard) but we are talking about basically giving up a bunch of waiver wire fodder the rest of the season for him also. I paid 80 % of my blind bids last year for Prescott and was happy I did. Maybe this works and maybe it doesn't but my guess is he will be a valuable flex player. I'm glad I'm not a Howard owner because this kid is going to take a lot of receptions away from him.

Lastly this kid is highly liked by the staff as they raved about him all camp. Enough that they moved on from Langford and others before the season started so I think he was a surprise to us but not them.

Side note... I would still take Howard over him lol. Just want it clear before someone takes that the wrong way. I just think Howard is taking a hit this year on his overall production.

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Re: How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby UNCProfesh » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:53 am

Well Update:

The $145 was not good enough. The owner who had DJ and is perennially a top 2 team, bid $151 to ensure he outbid me. So I guess on one level it's good I retained my FAAB budget and didn't overspend. But oh well. On a good note, though we only start 4 IDP players each week, I was able to add TJ Watt for free on free agency and am throwing a total dart to pick up Josh Gordon for free as well. Heard rumors he's been told he will be reinstated in time for Sept 24 game against the Colts. Of course the floor is zero with him (super low), but for a back end bench spot, could be good if he does keep his head on straight and gets a second chance.
0.5 PPR 0.05 rtrn yd
Brady,Carr
L.Bell, Gurley, Lynch, Mixon, CJ Anderson, Crowell,
AJG,M. Thomas,B. Cooks,T. Hill, Watkins, Golladay, Zay Jones, K.White
WR/TE elig Kelce, Henry
L.Kuechly, K.Alexander, Jatavis Brown
K.Mack
K. Joseph
Gostkowski

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Re: How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby Ice » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:57 am

After losing DJ in one of Dynasty leagues and now weak at RB, I went all in to get him in one league. He has a chance to be really good and if I miss it doesn't cost much. If he hits then its a steal. Sure I will now go after players for free but with large rosters getting a potential gem is worth it for one season of waiver dollars given gems don't pop up on the wire very often.

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Re: How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby Just4Fun » Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:15 am

Find it odd that he was even on waivers.

He was only availabable in 2 of the 3 leagues I'm in with 8 Teams.
Of the 10 leagues I'm in with 12 teams..... He was available in ZERO.

Maybe these leagues are IDP or something but I'd be interested hearing from others as to how many leagues he was on the waiver wire in.

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the_captain
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Re: How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby the_captain » Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:35 am

Just4Fun wrote:Find it odd that he was even on waivers.

He was only availabable in 2 of the 3 leagues I'm in with 8 Teams.
Of the 10 leagues I'm in with 12 teams..... He was available in ZERO.

Maybe these leagues are IDP or something but I'd be interested hearing from others as to how many leagues he was on the waiver wire in.


I'm in a 12 team IDP league with rosters of 55 and a 5 round rookie draft and he went undrafted. He was picked up from waivers/FA on August 15th but that's an awfully big league/rosters before he was added. I'm not surprised at all that he was available in a lot of leagues.

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Re: How much FAAB for Cohen?

Postby dgulaitis » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:48 am

I got him in the draft so I'm good. In redraft he went for 50% ($100) to the owner of Howard. Panic city.
QB: Luck; Wentz, Goff
RB: LeVeon, Zeke, Howard, Crowell, Kelley, Sims, J Rodgers, Cohen, Ellington, Kamara (ts), Clement (ts)
WR; OBJ, Evans, Watkins, Hopkins, K White (IR), C Samuel (ts)
TE: Doyle, Engram, Olsen (IR)

2018 1st (3), 2nd (2)


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