Thoughts on Tyreek Hill?

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UNCProfesh
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Re: Thoughts on Tyreek Hill?

Postby UNCProfesh » Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:01 pm

FLIP1184 wrote:
Not 100%, but I know Tyreek was outside the top 5 but inside the top 10 (no.8 I'm thinking). With Lockett on my squad, who holds a very similar floor/ceiling, Tyreek was much easier to move with much better payout. If my RB depth wasn't so non existent, and I didn't have Lockett, Hill would definitely be on the starting squad.


Not really all that sold on Lockett at all. He may be a similar styled player, but he's yet to come close to top 10 WR numbers nor has anywhere near the electric ability that Hill has. FYI, Hill was clocked at close to 22 mph last year. He ran a 4.29 40 yard dash. Though, RB depth is always something you want...but if it were me given your team (assuming from the bolds that you start 3 RBs and 3 WRs), I would have held pat with Hill. Your RB corps in a 3 RB start league...with Gurley, Howard, and Hyde has to be near the top of your league. I wouldn't be rushing to sell Howard either. He showed top 10, possibly top 5 stuff and Gurley will rebound. Hyde has the talent to be an elite RB, but has lingering injury woes. Still if it's 3 and 3....you would have been much better off with Gurley, Howard, Hyde, Evans, Jeffery, and Hill in your starting lineup, with legit TE options too. Depending on how many teams are in your league...that sounds like a playoff, if not championship caliber squad as is....don't understand why you would trade away a start worthy player.

Some advice for your rookie draft:

Try like hell to steal a guy like John Ross or McCaffery. In return leagues, their values could be a LOT more than typical rookie mocks will say.
Brady,Watson, Carr
L.Bell, Gurley, Mixon, CJ Anderson, Crowell, Lynch
AJG, M. Thomas, B. Cooks, T. Hill, J. Gordon, Watkins, Dede, Agholor, Golladay
WR/TE elig Kelce
L.Kuechly, K.Alexander, R. Foster
K.Mack
A. Jackson
Gostkowski

FLIP1184
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Re: Thoughts on Tyreek Hill?

Postby FLIP1184 » Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:32 pm

UNCProfesh wrote:
FLIP1184 wrote:
Not 100%, but I know Tyreek was outside the top 5 but inside the top 10 (no.8 I'm thinking). With Lockett on my squad, who holds a very similar floor/ceiling, Tyreek was much easier to move with much better payout. If my RB depth wasn't so non existent, and I didn't have Lockett, Hill would definitely be on the starting squad.


Not really all that sold on Lockett at all. He may be a similar styled player, but he's yet to come close to top 10 WR numbers nor has anywhere near the electric ability that Hill has. FYI, Hill was clocked at close to 22 mph last year. He ran a 4.29 40 yard dash. Though, RB depth is always something you want...but if it were me given your team (assuming from the bolds that you start 3 RBs and 3 WRs), I would have held pat with Hill. Your RB corps in a 3 RB start league...with Gurley, Howard, and Hyde has to be near the top of your league. I wouldn't be rushing to sell Howard either. He showed top 10, possibly top 5 stuff and Gurley will rebound. Hyde has the talent to be an elite RB, but has lingering injury woes. Still if it's 3 and 3....you would have been much better off with Gurley, Howard, Hyde, Evans, Jeffery, and Hill in your starting lineup, with legit TE options too. Depending on how many teams are in your league...that sounds like a playoff, if not championship caliber squad as is....don't understand why you would trade away a start worthy player.

Some advice for your rookie draft:

Try like hell to steal a guy like John Ross or McCaffery. In return leagues, their values could be a LOT more than typical rookie mocks will say.


Understandably so, I'm obviously sold a little more on Lockett, he's in a prime position going into next season. Like I said, I can get a much more polished skills position player at 1.03, and was merely cashing out on my 9.04 flier, scooping up Howard in the process and move up to 1.03. Ross is definitely a top my board at 1.03.

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Re: Thoughts on Tyreek Hill?

Postby mcirish » Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:42 pm

Ice wrote:My take is Hill will be closer to 199 than the 250 over/under projection the trader figures.

In a 16 game schedule only 5 WR's hit 250 plus last season. In a 17 game schedule only 8 hit that mark. Thinking Hill would be a top 5 or top 8 WR in fantasy is a very bold prediction for this young "fun to watch" WR.

I would put his true over/under in non return leagues at 225 if I were setting the line in Vegas. :D


Hedging toward a little more upside is definitely not crazy and he's very talented obviously. I just think that teams are going to have rules in place for him from the get go and he's a smaller player so he's going to be targeted. Last year he caught everyone by surprise, but he's got a big target on his back now.

Plus I just see him as more of a gadget player who was just in the right offense and in the right situation to max out on his production. Maclin will be back healthy, Conley is maturing and they have another kid named Demarcus Robinson who is a big upside player. So many mouths to feed in that offense.

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Re: Thoughts on Tyreek Hill?

Postby Ice » Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:07 am

mcirish wrote:
Ice wrote:My take is Hill will be closer to 199 than the 250 over/under projection the trader figures.

In a 16 game schedule only 5 WR's hit 250 plus last season. In a 17 game schedule only 8 hit that mark. Thinking Hill would be a top 5 or top 8 WR in fantasy is a very bold prediction for this young "fun to watch" WR.

I would put his true over/under in non return leagues at 225 if I were setting the line in Vegas. :D


Hedging toward a little more upside is definitely not crazy and he's very talented obviously. I just think that teams are going to have rules in place for him from the get go and he's a smaller player so he's going to be targeted. Last year he caught everyone by surprise, but he's got a big target on his back now.

Plus I just see him as more of a gadget player who was just in the right offense and in the right situation to max out on his production. Maclin will be back healthy, Conley is maturing and they have another kid named Demarcus Robinson who is a big upside player. So many mouths to feed in that offense.


You could be right. The reason I am hedging up a bit is I think he will play more plays. His snap count was only about 40% last season. I do think teams will attack him differently but also think his snap count will increase. Kelce played 886, D. Harris TE 415, Conley 816, Maclin 630, and Hill 415.

Obviously, in that system Hill is an inside guy so I don't think Conley's or Maclin's snaps will suffer but Kelce and or D. Harris, and the RB's could suffer a bit if they get more creative with Hill. I see his snaps pushing 700 this season which should keep him in the low 200 points range like last season.

Agree there are a lot of mouths to feed especially in that type of Hybrid West Coast System. Unlike Julio, which has an unlimited ceiling, Hill's ceiling could be limited which is the main reason I didn't the trade.

Hill is going for a pretty high price these days, one I just can't see paying given so many unknowns.

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Re: Thoughts on Tyreek Hill?

Postby FLIP1184 » Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:23 am

Hill is going for a pretty high price these days, one I just can't see paying given so many unknowns.


That's pretty much where I was at with him. He's a RB converted to WR. I, personally, prefer polished skills position players that play into their natural position. At this point in the off season, too, there's to many unknown variables. Last season, KC needed a play maker like that. As far as we know, they could scoop a RB and lean on that next season.

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Re: Thoughts on Tyreek Hill?

Postby Just4Fun » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:37 am

Ice wrote:
Just4Fun wrote:Ice, Simply put....
Full PPR scoring (that league uses)

I project....

Hill around 250 points with a floor of 220 (199 last year)
Julio around 300 points with age giving him less chance at playing full seasons.(237 last year)


So getting two mid 1st rounds ( 1.06 A and 1.06 B) along with two early 2nd rounds (15th and 16th picks) not to mention 1 year out of Fitz. IMO is well worth the 50 point differential. That's not to mention the age difference of 5 years and a rookie possibly improving his game.


I see why you talked yourself into the deal. Still think much work is needed to move up in the draft to give you a better chance longer term.

You will have to make up those points some place. I see a 5 point per game drop on average not considering consistency.

One factor that drives me in trades is what is the impact on my average scoring weekly and my projections based on consistency of player.

It could work out for you, time will tell. You did get a good player in HIll and those picks could be used in a positive way to get better.

Obviously, I would not have made a deal selling an Uber Stud for upside projects but you went for it which I like to see as owners that are willing to take some risks to get better make for better fantasy players.


Final stats full ppr league in which the trade was made.
Fitz 248
Hill 245 points
Julio 238 points

So... not only did I grab Hill who outscored Julio alone but Fitz who was a 1 year throw in outscored Julio as well. Not to mention the 5 and 6 picks that Had Cook, Hunt and Kamara sitting there. I moved those picks but.... think it's fair to say that everyone that laughed at me and thought I was a fool might want to realize that you have to look forward in this game or you'll be stuck in the middle of the pack.

Julio is a great WR.... I still like him plenty. I also think that in the NFL there is no comparison between the two. However fantasy and NFL talent don't always correlate. I'm wrong at times and have missed on moves like this before so I'm not here to act like I'm a know it all. Only pointing out that this move I was spot on and sometimes you have to take chances.

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Re: Thoughts on Tyreek Hill?

Postby UNCProfesh » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:32 am

Just4Fun wrote:Final stats full ppr league in which the trade was made.
Fitz 248
Hill 245 points
Julio 238 points


Yep, this year should put any doubts on Hill to rest. I've been one of his biggest proponents since before he really started lighting it up (largely because my league rewards return yards so his elevation to WR1 was seen much earlier than most). That said, this year's more traditional usage definitely shows that the hype with Hill is fully real. I know I wasn't the only one touting him (he was one of Christopher Harris' biggest buys), but still, Tyreek the freak is still getting undervalued even if his ADP has risen significantly. Many see him as a top 25 pick....I have seen him as much higher. In my half PPR 0.05 rtrn yard league, Hill in his first two years has been the number 5 WR (2016) and number 3 WR (2017). He's a top tier elite WR who will likely only get better as he matures in the league.

It will be interesting moving forward to see how his usage and value will be affected when Mahomes ultimately takes over in KC.
Brady,Watson, Carr
L.Bell, Gurley, Mixon, CJ Anderson, Crowell, Lynch
AJG, M. Thomas, B. Cooks, T. Hill, J. Gordon, Watkins, Dede, Agholor, Golladay
WR/TE elig Kelce
L.Kuechly, K.Alexander, R. Foster
K.Mack
A. Jackson
Gostkowski

Ice
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Re: Thoughts on Tyreek Hill?

Postby Ice » Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:26 pm

UNCProfesh wrote:
Just4Fun wrote:Final stats full ppr league in which the trade was made.
Fitz 248
Hill 245 points
Julio 238 points


Yep, this year should put any doubts on Hill to rest. I've been one of his biggest proponents since before he really started lighting it up (largely because my league rewards return yards so his elevation to WR1 was seen much earlier than most). That said, this year's more traditional usage definitely shows that the hype with Hill is fully real. I know I wasn't the only one touting him (he was one of Christopher Harris' biggest buys), but still, Tyreek the freak is still getting undervalued even if his ADP has risen significantly. Many see him as a top 25 pick....I have seen him as much higher. In my half PPR 0.05 rtrn yard league, Hill in his first two years has been the number 5 WR (2016) and number 3 WR (2017). He's a top tier elite WR who will likely only get better as he matures in the league.

It will be interesting moving forward to see how his usage and value will be affected when Mahomes ultimately takes over in KC.


Hill had a very solid year beating my personal over/under by 20 points. While I like him a lot, he did have 4 games under 9 points. With the expected QB change in KC expecting a better return next year is speculative.

Closer to a sell candidate than buy candidate in 2018. I like him as a high quality WR2 low end WR1 due to consistency.

In return leagues is value is through the roof if he returns the ball next year.

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Re: Thoughts on Tyreek Hill?

Postby UNCProfesh » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:49 am

Ice wrote:
UNCProfesh wrote:
Just4Fun wrote:Final stats full ppr league in which the trade was made.
Fitz 248
Hill 245 points
Julio 238 points


Yep, this year should put any doubts on Hill to rest. I've been one of his biggest proponents since before he really started lighting it up (largely because my league rewards return yards so his elevation to WR1 was seen much earlier than most). That said, this year's more traditional usage definitely shows that the hype with Hill is fully real. I know I wasn't the only one touting him (he was one of Christopher Harris' biggest buys), but still, Tyreek the freak is still getting undervalued even if his ADP has risen significantly. Many see him as a top 25 pick....I have seen him as much higher. In my half PPR 0.05 rtrn yard league, Hill in his first two years has been the number 5 WR (2016) and number 3 WR (2017). He's a top tier elite WR who will likely only get better as he matures in the league.

It will be interesting moving forward to see how his usage and value will be affected when Mahomes ultimately takes over in KC.


Hill had a very solid year beating my personal over/under by 20 points. While I like him a lot, he did have 4 games under 9 points. With the expected QB change in KC expecting a better return next year is speculative.

Closer to a sell candidate than buy candidate in 2018. I like him as a high quality WR2 low end WR1 due to consistency.

In return leagues is value is through the roof if he returns the ball next year.


Yeah, my first feelings on him were generated coming from a return league. I have a hard time thinking that they won't use him in some return context since he's top 2 in the league in that role (Adoree Jackson is in play for top spot). In my league he has back to back top 5 finishes, but of course, that comes with return yard point caveat. Though I think there may be some early struggles for Mahomes due to his inexperience, his style of play should be a boon to Hill as compared to Smith. Though I think Hill is a dangerous weapon in real life in all contexts, his ability to stretch the field will be enabled through Mahomes propensity for throwing the long ball. I think having had the ability to sit behind Smith and learn from him, should enable Mahomes in his first real campaign. Hill's upside and stock to me...are only going to rise. I most certainly wouldn't sell him. He's a hold candidate at minimum, and depending on the cost would be one I would actively strive to buy. He's only 23 and heading into that potential year 3 breakout.
Brady,Watson, Carr
L.Bell, Gurley, Mixon, CJ Anderson, Crowell, Lynch
AJG, M. Thomas, B. Cooks, T. Hill, J. Gordon, Watkins, Dede, Agholor, Golladay
WR/TE elig Kelce
L.Kuechly, K.Alexander, R. Foster
K.Mack
A. Jackson
Gostkowski


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