Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

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UNCProfesh
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Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby UNCProfesh » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:56 am

So now that it's the off-season or better put....the biggest research/player movement time of the year....

I wanted to see if this hypothetical trade makes sense or not. I'm coming off my first championship in my dynasty league of record...and ready to put together a 2-3 year championship run. Given the two teams below...would the following trade make any sense? I know that winning is hard to do, and winning multiple championships back to back is even harder. I'm well set to do so regardless of the trade but should I do this and go for the league's jugular with a more short-sighted viewpoint or hold steady? (Note: I realize that my team is absurd for a 10 team dynasty league ALREADY)

Send: Michael Thomas AND Brandin Cooks
Get: David Johnson (to add to my Bell and Gurley)

0.5 PPR, 0.05 pts per return yard, Conservative scoring IDP, no designated TE but TE's are available for WR/TE and flex slot.

Start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR/TE, Flex, K, LB, DL, DB, Dflex

My team as of now (will need to drop 6 players prior to draft - we keep 22 with max number of players at 28 due to IR slots prior to keeper decision):

QB: Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Derek Carr
RB: Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, Joe Mixon, C.J. Anderson, Marshawn Lynch, Isaiah Crowell, Peyton Barber
WR: Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, Tyreek Hill, Brandin Cooks, Josh Gordon, Sammy Watkins, Nelson Agholor, Dede Westbrook, Kenny Golladay, Paul Richardson, Kevin White
WR/TE: Travis Kelce
K: Stephen Gostkowski
LB: Luke Kuechly, Kwon Alexander, Reuben Foster
DB: Adoree Jackson
DL: Khalil Mack

Opponent's Team (will need to drop 6 players too):

QB: Carson Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott
RB: David Johnson, Lamar Miller, D'Onta Foreman, Tevin Coleman, Aaron Jones, Tarik Cohen, Marlon Mack, Wayne Gallman
WR: Antonio Brown, Davante Adams, Golden Tate, Devante Parker, Josh Doctson, Corey Davis, Tyler Lockett
WR/TE: Greg Olsen
K: Ryan Succop
LB: Preston Brown, Benardrick McKinney, Zach Brown, T.J. Watt
DL: Joey Bosa
DB: Landon Collins, Matthias Fairley

My proposed new starting lineup and bench would be:

QB: Watson or Brady
RB: Todd Gurley
RB: Le'Veon Bell
WR: A.J. Green
WR: Tyreek Hill
WR/TE: Josh Gordon or Travis Kelce
Flex: David Johnson
K: Stephen Gostkowski
LB: Luke Kuechly
DL: Khalil Mack
DB: Adoree Jackson
Dflex: Kwon Alexander

Bench: Brady/Watson, Carr, Josh Gordon/Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Agholor, Westbrook, Golladay, Richardson, White, Mixon, Lynch, Crowell, C.J. Anderson, Barber, Foster

To me....that's a frightening lineup for the next 2-3 years...with potential of crushing the soul of anyone playing me.
Brady,Watson, Carr
L.Bell, Gurley, Mixon, CJ Anderson, Crowell, Lynch
AJG, M. Thomas, B. Cooks, T. Hill, J. Gordon, Watkins, Dede, Agholor, Golladay
WR/TE elig Kelce
L.Kuechly, K.Alexander, R. Foster
K.Mack
A. Jackson
Gostkowski

zildjian
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby zildjian » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:08 am

I wouldn't do it. You have a great trio right now with Bell, Gurley, and Mixon. I know Mixon didn't have a great year, but his upside is there. I don't think its worth taking the hit losing 2 of your 3 best WRs. Plus those are your younger WRs just entering their prime. AJG is a stud, but getting older. Who knows what you'll get from Watkins (big fan but big disappointment so far) and then you have the idiot factor/risk with Hill and Gordon.

Keep your impressive roster!

thedream9
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby thedream9 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:55 am

I’d stay put as well and agree with zildgian completely.
If you want to move a WR for elite return is move AJG not Thomas.
10-team .5 PPR
Ben, Carr, Stafford
Gurley, Fournette, Mixon, Hill, Henry, Crowell, Lynch, AP
AJG, Keenan, Watkins, DT, Jordy, moncrief, Doctson, Floyd, Dorsett, Carroo, JJ Nelson
NJoku, Cook

bobber56
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby bobber56 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:57 am

I wouldn't do it either...I'd add to Thomas for DJ, but not at the expense of Cooks.
In a startup Thomas would only be a few picks after DJ.
Chalupa Batman - DFW48 Roster
Roethlisberger, Ryan
Zeke, Ajayi, Powell, Henry
Dez, Cooper, Alshon, Cobb, Thielen
Reed, Olsen, Rudolph, Howard

buckeye
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby buckeye » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:13 pm

I'd absolutely do that. People have already forgotten what DJ did 2 years ago. Thomas and Cooks were worth 415 points last year in my 1/2 PPR. DJ was worth 392 on his own in 2016.

I don't even think it's close.

UNCProfesh
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby UNCProfesh » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:56 pm

bobber56 wrote:I wouldn't do it either...I'd add to Thomas for DJ, but not at the expense of Cooks.
In a startup Thomas would only be a few picks after DJ.


I mean I totally agree in a normal league with reasonable players. It's a total overpay, but our league owners don't operate as normal dynasty players. Many in the league have complained and grumbled about how my team has two backs that have 40+ pt ceilings...and that my team has bordered on being unfair, despite me always following all the rules. It's simply that I've had good drafts, made smart trades to slowly build a Heavyweight. The price of a top 5-10 back is super high in our league, because the perception is that they're scarce, even after this last year and the upcoming RB class.

To get DJ to mix with Bell and Gurley, I would have to give such a huge value offer that it would be hard to refuse. Even with the overpay, guaranteed league mates would lose it if I got the three of the four top backs to add still one of the best WR corps (even without Thomas and Cooks in there).
Brady,Watson, Carr
L.Bell, Gurley, Mixon, CJ Anderson, Crowell, Lynch
AJG, M. Thomas, B. Cooks, T. Hill, J. Gordon, Watkins, Dede, Agholor, Golladay
WR/TE elig Kelce
L.Kuechly, K.Alexander, R. Foster
K.Mack
A. Jackson
Gostkowski

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the_captain
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby the_captain » Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:25 pm

Your WRs take far too much of a hit giving up your 2nd and 3rd best ones. Pass

bobber56
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby bobber56 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:10 am

I get the overpay and if that's what you're willing to do, I'd want a bump in draft pick to do it. So offer what you are, with a 2nd for DJ and a 1st.
Chalupa Batman - DFW48 Roster
Roethlisberger, Ryan
Zeke, Ajayi, Powell, Henry
Dez, Cooper, Alshon, Cobb, Thielen
Reed, Olsen, Rudolph, Howard

UNCProfesh
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby UNCProfesh » Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:39 am

bobber56 wrote:I get the overpay and if that's what you're willing to do, I'd want a bump in draft pick to do it. So offer what you are, with a 2nd for DJ and a 1st.


Yeah that may be the way to do it. It's still hypothetical...just one of only a few trades I could see making in this league. Rest of the league would be difficult for me to get anything close to DJ, given the way many of the owners have operated, especially after I had such a dominant year. Had one situation where the other owner recognized that what I was offering him would have made his team better in theory, but he said he wouldn't trade with me (deal would have included Hunt), because the trade would make my team better too which makes it even harder to win the league.

I'm in a situation where the other owners may feel like they need to isolate me from anything that makes me better because my team is already too stacked.

Either way, seems like the consensus is still to just stay put with the guys I have. I'm good either way.

One side note, this league rewards prizes to weekly top scores during regular season ($15 a week in addition to end of year prizes)...so getting a guy like DJ would likely boost my potential for more of those weeks. This year I had 7 of the 16 weeks with top score, but three were in the playoffs when it doesn't pay out (last year had 6 of 16 with 2 in the playoffs).
Brady,Watson, Carr
L.Bell, Gurley, Mixon, CJ Anderson, Crowell, Lynch
AJG, M. Thomas, B. Cooks, T. Hill, J. Gordon, Watkins, Dede, Agholor, Golladay
WR/TE elig Kelce
L.Kuechly, K.Alexander, R. Foster
K.Mack
A. Jackson
Gostkowski

thedream9
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby thedream9 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:10 pm

DJ is a beast no doubt about it.
But what often is forgotten due to how short he’s been in the league, is he’s already 26 years old, older than leveon bell by a few months.
Also he’s lost his coach and lost Carson palmer. Who knows what the cardinals will look like.
Thomas is on his way (if not there already) to being the elite of elite WR in the league.
I understand your league mates concerns and thinking this makes you invincible, but I’ve seen more dominant teams than yours fall short.
Rosters that have contained Rodgers, Bell Gurley Zeke, OBJ Julio AB, Gronk and Kelce. All at the same time. And lost. Seems impossible right.
10-team .5 PPR
Ben, Carr, Stafford
Gurley, Fournette, Mixon, Hill, Henry, Crowell, Lynch, AP
AJG, Keenan, Watkins, DT, Jordy, moncrief, Doctson, Floyd, Dorsett, Carroo, JJ Nelson
NJoku, Cook

dgulaitis
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby dgulaitis » Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:23 am

thedream9 wrote:DJ is a beast no doubt about it.
But what often is forgotten due to how short he’s been in the league, is he’s already 26 years old, older than leveon bell by a few months.
Also he’s lost his coach and lost Carson palmer. Who knows what the cardinals will look like.
Thomas is on his way (if not there already) to being the elite of elite WR in the league.
I understand your league mates concerns and thinking this makes you invincible, but I’ve seen more dominant teams than yours fall short.
Rosters that have contained Rodgers, Bell Gurley Zeke, OBJ Julio AB, Gronk and Kelce. All at the same time. And lost. Seems impossible right.


Totally agree! I didn’t win my championship this year and I thought I was invincible.
QB: Wentz, Goff, Luck
RB: LeVeon, Zeke, Kamara, Howard, Drake, Cohen, Kelley, Sims
WR; OBJ, Hopkins, Evans, Diggs, Watkins, C Davis
TE: Engram, Olsen, Doyle

Taxi: Clement, Ekeler, Samuel, Hollins

2018: 1.01, 2.01 2.05, 3.03

buckeye
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby buckeye » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:02 pm

I honestly don't get the overwhelming responses against this trade. It doesn't make any sense at all to me. While Thomas may be on his way to being elite, DJ could match his Thomas's receiving numbers from this year. Sure, he's 26, but he easily has 4+ years left. Does Brady or Brees? Probably not. I would be less concerned about DJ's QB than the future QB for Thomas or Cooks.

I think there is a lot of overthinking going on here.

UNCProfesh
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby UNCProfesh » Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:09 pm

Nice points buckeye.

Another trade scenario I just started a dialogue with that would be a league changing move...

Send: Le'Veon Bell and A.J. Green
Receive: Deandre Hopkins and the 1.1 (Barkley)

This move would guarantee elite production for many more years to come, but of course, is a risk sending a league winning talent like Bell away. Right now, it's just in the early thought phase, but the Hopkins/1.1 owner didn't shoot it down. Said he would more just want to see where Barkley lands and if Bell re-signs with Pitt.

Would people do this trade?

After trade team would look like...considerably younger with 4 players with top 10 dynasty value (Gurley, DHop, Thomas, and possibly Barkley after 2018) several top 20-30 dynasty talents as well (Cooks, Tyreek, Mixon, Kelce, and Gordon).

QB: Watson, Brady, Carr
RB: Gurley, Barkley, Mixon, C.J. Anderson, Lynch, Crowell, (Barber - Potential Drop)
WR: Hopkins, M. Thomas, Tyreek, Cooks, J. Gordon, Watkins, Agholor, Dede, Golladay (Potential Drop and redraft)
WR/TE: Kelce
K: Gostkowski
LB: Kuechly, Kwon Alexander, (Foster - Drop)
DL: Khalil Mack
DB: Adoree Jackson
Brady,Watson, Carr
L.Bell, Gurley, Mixon, CJ Anderson, Crowell, Lynch
AJG, M. Thomas, B. Cooks, T. Hill, J. Gordon, Watkins, Dede, Agholor, Golladay
WR/TE elig Kelce
L.Kuechly, K.Alexander, R. Foster
K.Mack
A. Jackson
Gostkowski

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the_captain
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby the_captain » Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:24 pm

I'd pass. I don't think AJG and Hopkins are far apart at all and prefer Bell to Barkley.

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tzley22
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Re: Off-season dynasty trade scenarios

Postby tzley22 » Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:12 am

the_captain wrote:I'd pass. I don't think AJG and Hopkins are far apart at all and prefer Bell to Barkley.



Agree...
QB : Wilson, taylor
Rbs: Gurley , mccaffry ,jstew, blount, ekeler, Mike davis, clement
Wrs: Evans, jeffery, parker, JMatt, amendola, Richardson, Benjamin, higgins,
TEs: Olsen, njuko,kittle, seals jones

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