WRITTEN BY WESLEY WOOD
Chances are if you have been paying attention to the NFL or DFW or even the Dynasty Pulse podcast (which is awesome), then you are aware that Geno Smith is regarded as the #1 rookie QB in the 2013 draft class. But for us dynasty owners who have a need at QB we need to ask ourselves… What is Geno worth? Is he worth a 1st round pick? Is he maybe an early 2nd round pick? Well the only way to figure this out is to watch his tape (which I have) and use that as a starting block to figure out how he would perform on each team. So let’s dive in!
Arizona Cardinals – Since Kansas City is not likely to draft Geno with the 1st pick, Arizona has been mocked by many to be the landing spot for Geno. Now how would this turn out? We can safely assume that Arizona will not let Geno sit and develop. He will be thrown into the fire immediately. Since the offensive line is atrocious to say the least this may lead to some being skeptical of Geno not doing well. But not so fast. Watching Geno play this past year I can say with confidence that he plays well even when his offensive line is falling apart such as in the Texas game (see video below). The Cardinals do have the offensive weapons for Geno to be successful with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Rob Housler, and Andre Roberts.
If Geno lands in Arizona is he worthy of a 1st round pick? Ehh… I would say no. But he is most certainly worth a high 2nd round pick.
Buffalo Bills – Not many think Geno will land here but it is not out of the realm of possibility. If he does then he will need to play in cold weather and from my observations and others, it has been noted that cold weather is not his forte. The offensive line is much better than Arizona’s but do the Bills have offensive weapons to make Geno successful from week one? They most certainly do. CJ Spiller is a great back, Stevie Johnson is a good WR, Chandler is a good pass catching TE, and TJ Graham is a burner at WR. If the Bills draft a WR in the first three rounds then sign me up for Geno train. However… If the Bills do not get rid of Ryan Fitzpatrick then expect a QB battle that I don’t think Geno will win right away. Fitzpatrick always starts out the season strong so I expect him to be the starter so it may take a while until Geno hits the playing field. With Fitzpatrick there I expect Geno to start when the Bills are clearly not making the playoffs which means that year two will be Geno’s year to shine.
Is he worth a 1st round pick? Not unless Fitzpatrick is gone. But even with Fitz still sticking around I believe this will benefit Geno and let him develop a little. Year two would be his breakout year in Buffalo. So in essence Geno is once again only worth a high 2nd round pick.
Cleveland Browns – You might be thinking huh? I thought they had Brandon Weeden who they traded up to get in the 1st round last year. Well you are correct, however the Browns apparently are unhappy that their 29 year old rookie played like well… a rookie. Since he will be 30 next year they seem to be moving on from him. They have the 6th pick in the draft and could potentially swipe Geno from Arizona or Buffalo. Cleveland is just a bad place to land as a QB right now. While they do have Trent Richardson and Josh Gordon they also have Greg Little. I like Little personally but he has stone hands which has made Weeden and McCoy look worse than they really are. Plus who is the browns WR3? Take a guess. Josh Cribbs. He is not a good WR by any means.
Geno would be the day one guy but would he be a 1st round pick? Once again, no. I would actually downgrade him here to a late 2nd. The Browns cannot seem to commit to anyone and do not develop talent well. Geno will probably be a fantasy QB2 for the longest time while playing for them.
New York Jets – This an even bigger wasteland of talent than the Browns. I am going to make this short and sweet. The Jets are poorly run and are deteriorating. When the organization cut Favre and their head coach after a 9-7 season they hired Rex Ryan and drafted Mark Sanchez. They did well their first two years going to the AFC championship game. Since then? Two abysmal seasons with a head coach who cannot stay out of the spotlight and questionable decisions. Why trade for Tebow and anonymously say he is bad and never use him but claim he is the QB2? What talent do the Jets have? Well he would be replacing Mark, who will not be going anywhere with his lofty contract holding the Jets at gunpoint, Bidal Powell currently at starting RB, Santonio Holmes who is an above average WR, Stephen Hill as a prospect receiver, and Dustin Keller is leaving town as of right now.
Not even a discussion. Geno going to the Jets would be worse than going to the Browns to start his career. Not worth a 1st round pick by any means. Going here makes him a high 3rd round pick in my eyes.
Last but not least… … what if Geno ends up being passed by all those teams and ends up in a place with an aging QB like New Orleans, New England, and Oakland. Heck, maybe even a place with a QB who just isn’t viewed as a guy that can lead the team all the way like Dallas, Philly, Houston, and San Diego. If Geno pulls a Rodgers on draft day and one of these teams gets a discount double check on Smith, he will most likely be given a year or two to develop. At this point I would be happy to draft him as an investment. I would value him as a late 2nd, early 3rd if he goes to any of these places.
All in all is Geno worth a 1st round pick anywhere? No. But if you really want him and cannot trade back then take him. Just because it’s at the end of the first instead of the beginning of the second, doesn’t mean that you reached. I would rather fail with players that I drafted and liked, than fail with a team I picked based off of what other people thought a player’s value is.