Inside-the-48-and-361


 Inside The 48 and The IDP 36!


 

Written by: Patrick Anderson (Shackleford) and Bill Cervi (No Problem)

For those of you who are not familiar with DFW’s flagship leagues, DFW 48 and DFW 36 let me take a second and fill you in. DFW 48 is a 48 team Dynasty league that was created in 2012. It has four copies of every player and it is easily one of the most active Dynasty leagues in the country. DFW 36 is a 36 team IDP league with 3 copies of each player, it was created in 2014, and it has some of the most aggressive IDP scoring you will find anywhere!

With the NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, owners are in cram mode analyzing each rookie’s landing spot, and along with that cramming, analyzing, and speculating comes the ever present player and pick value questions. We will pick some of the recent transaction from DFW’s flagship leagues to analyze and further help gauge those values using tools provided by DFW (ADP, rankings, Spotlight articles, etc…). Here are this weeks trades from Inside the 48 and 36!

 

Trade #1(DFW 48)

 

Side A: Aiming To Win! gave up Vincent Jackson, 2.30 (2.08), and a 2016 3rd from Tyler Durden
Side B: Beerhounds gave up Julian Edelman, and the 3.31 (3.08)

Why we like side A: We assume that ATW believes that VJ’s production will decline faster than Edleman’s going forward and that Edleman will upgrade his WR depth at the same time. The first point may be open to debate, but it is hard to argue with Edleman’s production the last 2 years. Julian caught 197 passes for 2,038 yards and he scored 10 total TDs. At this point, Brady seems locked into the Pats starting QB job for at least 1-2 more years (but may be suspended for 2-8 games for the 2015 season) so it seems a safe bet that Edleman will continue to produce solid fantasy numbers. We believe Edleman should be a safe WR 3 in PPR leagues with weekly upside for the next 1-2 years.

Why we like side B: Beerhounds deemed the time was right to move Edelman and replace him with a similar player and add a mid second round pick in a talented and deep rookie class. Vincent Jackson is coming off his worst statistical season since 2010 and he turned 32 this year, but the news is not all bad in Tampa. VJ has posted six 1000+ yard seasons and he should be able to improve upon his numbers from last year considering the Bucs addition of strong armed rookie QB Jameis Winston. We would not be surprised at all if VJ and Edleman posted similar PPR numbers this year (+/- 20 pts) and Beerhounds will also have the 2.8 rook pick to bolster and develop his roster. According to DFW’s latest post draft rookie mock, players like QB Marcus Mariota, RB Mike Davis and WR Devin Funchess were all available at that pick.

SummaryBoth of the WRs in this trade are approaching the end of their NFL careers. Edleman may have a couple extra years based on his current age, but he is beginning to collect injuries (hip, concussion in 2014) and is heavily reliant on Brady and the Patriots scheme for production. We believe that Beerhounds is the clear winner in this trade mainly because of the addition of the quality second rounder who could still be scoring points for Beerhound’s roster long after both VJ and Edleman are gone from the NFL.

 

Trade #2(DFW 36)

 

Side A: Ryder gave up Cody Latimer and 1.10 (1.04)
Side B: Burgandy gave up 1.02 (1.01 because of 3 copies of each player)

Why we like side A: Ryder assured himself the blue chip player of his choice by landing the 1.1 pick. He will be able to trade down for a premium when OTC or he can select either Gurley or Gordon. Both RBs landed in good situations and should be fairly dependable starters as soon this season and they have top 12 RB potential long term.

Why we like side B:  Burgandy had 2 number 1 picks in this year’s draft so he decided he would trade down in order to accumulate more picks/players and we believe this was a good move for his team. Burgandy moves down 3 picks (still guaranteed Gurley, Gordon, Cooper, or White) and gains a very talented young WR who was buried on Denver’s depth chart last year. Latimer admittedly struggled with Manning’s audibles at the line of scrimmage in 2014, but worked out with Peyton in early April and now feels much more comfortable with his route assignments. The team will be counting on Latimer to fill the #3WR role in 2015 and that should lead to immediate fantasy relevant production. This is a perfect example of “buying low” on a player that had an off statistical year due to landing spot/ situation. Burgandy should have himself a quality young WR prospect that should see significant appreciation in value as the year progresses.

Summary: It’s not that Ryder got hosed in this deal, but he did practically hand Latimer over to Burgandy. The owners in the 48 and 36 are well known WR whores and quality prospects demand lopsided trades to wrench them from another owner’s roster. Burgandy moves down to the 1.4 which assures him of landing two of the top 4 players in this draft (if he stays put) and he also added a very talented WR who will,most likely demand a premium via trade by the end of the 2015 season. Burgandy has said, on the record, that he is looking for a similar move now that the draft dust has settled because he feels “there is no clear #1 pick,” so why not trade down a few spots to avoid over-drafting and pick up another investment piece around the Latimer range? “Knights of Columbus, that hurt,” Ryder!

 

Trade #3 (DFW 48)

 

Side A: JScott gave up Bernard Pierce, 3.15 (3.04), 3.16 (3.04), and 4.39 (4.10)
Side B: Dead Man Walking gave up Frank Gore

Why we like side A: JScott would have paid someone to take Bernard Pierce of his roster, but in this case he actually received a weekly starter for him! Pierce was arrested on a DUI charge in March, but he should have been locked up long before for the depressing 3.77 yards per carry he averaged in his 3 seasons with the Ravens. Pierce was buried on the depth chart and the addition of rookie TJ Yeldon virtually assures that he will not have a role with the Jags. JScott also sent 2 third rounders and a late 4th, but he most likely would not have been able to keep any of those players considering the limited roster space in DFW 48.

Why we like side B: There is very little to like on side B. JScott offloaded a random RB and several scrub picks for a proven workhorse back. Gore will turn 32 this season and he has showed no signs of slowing down, posting 1100+ yards in each of the past 4 seasons. Better yet, he’s posted 1000+ yards in 7 of his 9 total seasons (one was his rookie campaign) and averaged 4.4 YPC. Maybe DMW can hit a home run with one of the late round picks and save the day.

Summary: Dirty deeds, done dirt cheap by JScott in this deal. Gore has recently been moved for a high second and a low first in the 48, but a pair of 3rds and a late 4th with a bottom feeder RB thrown in? JScott walked away from this transaction licking his chops.

That will do it for this week’s Inside The 48 and IDP 36. Hope you enjoyed it and we will be back for more action next week.