Inside the 48 and 36


Inside The 48 and The IDP 36!


 

Written by: Patrick Anderson (Shackleford) and Bill Cervi (No Problem)

For those of you who are not familiar with DFW’s flagship leagues, DFW 48 and DFW 36 let me take a second and fill you in. DFW 48 is a 48 team Dynasty league that was created in 2012. It has four copies of every player and it is easily one of the most active Dynasty leagues in the country. DFW 36 is a 36 team IDP league with 3 copies of each player, it was created in 2014, and it has some of the most aggressive IDP scoring you will find anywhere!

While many dynasty leagues are lying dormant or their owners are busy collecting, processing, and analyzing the Combine data and Free Agency moves, owners in the 48 and 36 have completed 100’s of trades already this year! We will analyze the biggest trades and highlight the more interesting power moves in the upcoming rookie draft, with the hope that you can gain an edge in your own Dynasty League.

Without further adieu let’s take a look Inside the 48 and the 36!

 

Trade #1 (DFW 48)

Side A: Why Does it Ertz When i. Pead gave up Odell Beckham Jr, 3.34 (3.09), and 4.06 (4.02)

Side B: Tyler Durden gave up Keenan Allen, Jordy Nelson, 2.48 (2.12)

 

Why I like side A: At first glance, I’m sure a lot of you are looking at this trade and thinking “He traded ODB?!” Yes, he did and he also improved his starting WRs group as a unit. Jordy is still only 30 years old (May 31st) and should have at least 2-3 quality years of top 12 production left and Keenan Allen should rebound to some extent (if Rivers is his QB) and should improve on his WR 36 finish in 2014 PPR leagues. The 2.12 should also provide a solid prospect or provide ammunition to move up to an earlier pick or swing away at a second or third tier player.

Why I like side B: Even though this trade was good for both sides in the short term, I love this trade for Tyler Durden. Bundling Allen, Jordy and a late second rounder to grab one of the hottest dynasty WRs, in a WR driven league, is a huge move. The Offensive Rookie of the Year posted 87 catches, for 1,261 yards and he scored 11 TDs, in only 12 games! OBJ became Eli Manning’s safety blanket and seemed unstoppable at times last season, despite DC’s best efforts. He seems primed for another quality season, the only question mark will be how Victor Cruz impacts his stats. Opinions on Cruz’s recovery have ranged from being on track to he may never be the same after his serious knee injury (Pattellar tear). The bottom line is, with or without a healthy Ctuz, if OBJ can play at  level he performed at last season, he is a lock to be a top 5 WR for years to come as he will only be 23 in November.

Summary: Although this trade may balance out in the short term, we have to side with Tyler Durden on this one. We have concerns about the longevity of Jordy’s elite production and Keenan Allen significantly regressed in 2014. Allen’s receptions and targets both increased (71 recs/104 targets to 77 recs/122 targets) , but his yardage, TDs and catch rate all decreased (1.046 yards, 8 TDs, 68% catch rate to 783 yards, 4 TDs and a 63% catch rate). If Allen can rebound from his sophomore slump and return to WR 2 status then this trade will be much closer to equaling out over the long term. If we were shopping OBJ however, we would have demanded a King’s ransom, including another elite Young WR to even consider the deal. Hopefully Why Does it Ertz When i. Pead will nail the 2.12 or pull of another move and this trade will work out for both parties in the long run.

 

Trade #3(DFW 48)

Side A: THE FANTASY TYPHOON gave up 1.12 (1.03) and 1.21 (1.06)

Side B: McCowell gave up Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills, 2016 1st round pick from Monsters of the Midway

 

Why I like side A: This is a man’s trade and we admire the conviction required to pull the trigger on both sides of this trade. The Typhoon grabbed a young, proven WR1 in Cobb, a 23 year old WR 3/4 with upside in Kenny Stills, and a future late first round pick. Cobb should continue to play a significant role in the Packer’s high powered passing attack and the only thing that will limit his production will be his ability to stay on the field. Stills will be an interesting player to watch in Miami since Wallace left town, but the team just added journeyman WR Greg Jennings and there are rumors flying that the Dolphins may select a WR early in this year’s draft. If they pass on WR to address other needs, Stills has a WR 3 ceiling with some upside based on his ability to run underneath routes, stretch the field and his outstanding 78% catch rate (#4 in the NFL).  This trade could help TFT make a serious push for a playoff run this year as he now rosters Benjamin, Cobb, Lynch, Ingram, and Kelce.

Why I like side B: We love the nards it takes to trade established proven players for high draft picks with hopes of landing roster changing talent. In our opinion, this draft has 3 outstanding prospects that seem to have elite talent and should have a shot at being top 12 at their positions in 1-2 years. One copy of either RB Todd Gurley, WR Kevin White or WR Amari Cooper should be available at 1.3 (1.12) and any one of them should be a safe bet to be successful. The 1.6 (1.21) should be a quality prospect as well. According to DFW’s Pre Draft Rookie ADP players like RB Melvin Gordon, WR DeVante Parker, WR Dorial Green-Beckham, and RB Jay Ajayi could possibly be available and depending on their landing spot prove to be future top 12 candidates at their position as well. Then you add in the fact that McCowell already has the 1.2 (1.8) and you have to wonder if he plans to land 2 of the top 3 prospect or does he plan on trading down and snowballing picks/players? The options are tremendous and we will have to keep an eye on McCowell’s moves in the coming weeks.

Summary: The jury will be out on this trade until after the draft. The benefits to the Typhoon are apparent, but we will be watching McCowell’s moves in the coming weeks and we may actually revisit the outcome of this trade in the near future, as it surely has the potential to be a roster changing move for McCowell.

 

Trade #3 (DFW 48)

Side A: Tyler Durden gave up 1.01

Side B: Shackleford gave up Jamaal Charles, 1.34 (1.09), and 1.42 (1.11)

 

Why I like side A: DFW 48 is a Dynasty league that often undervalues RBs and overvalues WRs. Tyler Durden surely does not fall into this trap as he now rosters Le’Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles and DeMarco Murray. I am not completely convinced that TD will keep all 3 RBs after week 3 (Bell’s suspension ends), but if he does he should have a huge weekly advantage with his 3 headed monster RB stable. TD also landed 2 first round picks as well that offer him a myriad of directions to go when he is OTC. As everyone knows, the closer we get to draft day, rookie pick values begin to rise. There should be several quality players on the board when TD is OTC, but I would not be surprised to see him trade up for a better prospect or trade down from one or both picks and turn them into a future pick/player bonanza! This is another trade we will have to keep an eye on as there are so many moving parts involved.

Why I like side B: Shackleford is in full rebuild mode so his goal was to replace the aging Jamaal Charles with presumably RB Todd Gurley who is on track with his ACL recovery and has been called the best college RB prospect to enter the league since Adrian Peterson. The possibility also exists that Shackleford could  potentially trade down from the 1.1 as a copy of Todd Gurley could fall to the pick 1.2 to 1.3 range given the 48 league member’s proclivity to hoard WR prospects. We will have to see what decisions he will will ultimately make.

Summary: I think it is fair to say that Shackleford overpaid for the 1.1 in this deal, but he believes that Jamaal Charles is inevitably looking at a precipitous decline in his production and the time to move him was now. TD basically moved down in the draft from 1.1 to 1.9, 1.11 and Jamaal Charles so at this point TD seems to have the upper hand in this trade. We will keep an eye on Shackleford’s trades in the coming weeks as he may be planning a move that can not be openly discussed at this point, Stay tuned!

That will do it for this weeks Inside The 48 and IDP 36. Hope you enjoyed it and we will be back for more action next week.