I treat dynasty like the stock market and I am constantly looking to trade to stay ahead of the market.  The biggest mistake I see teams make in this format is just sitting on their team and not making any moves.  You sit on your team long enough value will come and go and you will more than often lose out on any potential moves while player values spike and then disappear after a season or two.  The best owners can guesstimate who’s value will go up or down based on past production and future changes whether player personnel (competition), coaching changes, offensive philosophy changes, aging, etc.  If you can take in all the data and formulate an opinion on how that will play out moving forward then you can buy and sell players and consistently win on deals.  Just remember past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Here are some players I would look to sell this off-season based on in-season expectations and go-forward value.


Tyreek Hill – With the recent release of Maclin some are expecting this to vault Hill into WR2 territory with WR1 games here and there.  I would use this recent news as a good time to sell him at an inflated price as I don’t see him as the long-term WR1 for the Chiefs.  He’s a fast guy, but he’s never been a #1 WR.  I see him as a long-term complimentary piece who will have some good games here and there with the team addressing the position next off-season.  With the news that the Jets are going to release or trade Decker maybe the Chiefs make a play for him.

D.Adams – His value exploded during the ’16 season after being relegated to a flyer in drafts last off-season.  Although he finished as a top-10 WR, a lot of his production came from TDs with 12.  Aside from that he had 75 catches for 997 yards which are far from top-10 WR status.  I expect the TDs to regress and I expect the catches and yards to remain relatively flat.  Based on that he’ll be more of a low-end WR2 which is fine, but I am a fan of selling any stock that I think will fall whether a big or small drop.

L.McCoy – This is your last shot to move the 29 year old McCoy for decent value before next off-season.  While I would sell for the right price, the smart move might be to move him mid-season.  He’s currently a top-5 RB for the ’17 season if you are a contender, but if not you’ll probably be able to move him for more than his current mid-to-late 1st value which is what I’ve seen this off-season.

Jordy Nelson – He was the #2 WR in PPG last season and his value is hit-or-miss right now based on the league and the potential owners.  I’ve seen him moved in all sorts of deals this off-season, deals where he fetched more value than he should have and deals where he was almost given away due to age concerns.  You have to be careful with a guy like Jordy, you want to move him before his value tanks completely as he’ll be 33 next off-season, but you also don’t want to sell him too cheap especially if you need his ’17 production to make a run.

Matt Ryan – OC Shanahan is now in the HC in SF and he was a key reason for the Falcon’s recent offensive success and Ryan’s 2nd place finish at the QB position in PPG.  Not to say they won’t still be good, but I don’t see them being as efficient or productive moving forward which means now is the time to sell Ryan for a downgrade and bump at RB, WR or TE.  I’d target a guy like Stafford on the cheap along with the bump.

B.Powell – The Jets are going to be really bad and Powell is not the long-term answer as a 29 year old RB that is just not getting a shot to be the upper part of a RBBC.  If you’re not a contender I’d move him for a 2nd while he has some value.  He’s also a guy you can ride for the first month of the season and then trade him for a tad bit more value.  With that option there is always a chance he busts and you get nothing which is why you might want to settle for a 2nd now if you can.

Zach Ertz – Once again Ertz finished the season in strong fashion.  That being said they have added lots of new toys in the off-season between Alshon and Torrey Smith while they still have JMatt working the slot.  That’s a lot of mouths to feed so I expect his targets to go down from the 86 he had from week 9 and on when he got hot.  I’d rather move Ertz for a late ’18 1st or a lesser TE like Higbee and an upgrade at another position.