I was looking through the post draft rookie ADP (Average Draft Position) and noticed some trends where certain players are being drafted too high and some too low. I decided to pick through the players and give you my feedback on which to let fall and who could possibly be a steal for your team.
Montee Ball (ADP 1.05) – Not a major over draft but when he is the 4th RB off the board, which tells me DeAndre Hopkins (my true love, as stated two weeks ago) is likely getting the shaft in favor of positional need. Montee is good, but as of now he hasn’t participated in any 1st team practice snaps and could very possibly be in a RBBC. Keep in mind that Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno didn’t drop off the face of the earth just because Ball showed up.
Zac Stacy (ADP 1.12) – A 5th round RB going at the 1.12… who would of seen this coming? I like Stacy and I see that he has potential to be a solid starter if given the workload. However, he is being drafted ahead of players like Justin Hunter, Aaron Dobson, Markus Wheaton, and Robert Woods. To me, Stacy is more of a mid to late 2nd round pick. The history of RB’s drafted in the 5th, 6th, and 7th round just isn’t on Zac’s side.* See bottom of page for RB’s taken in round 5 or later.
Denard Robinson (ADP 3.06) – He is not a RB. No matter how much fun he was running around as a QB in college, he certainly isn’t a RB. His ceiling is an all star kick returner like Devin Hester or Josh Cribbs.
Cordarrelle Patterson (ADP 1.06) – I am not going to beat a dead horse, but (explain what “this” is) is two spots higher than I would even consider placing him. Two spots is a lot in round 1.
Da’Rick Rogers (ADP 3.06) – An undrafted, talented, boneheaded WR on a team that has a rookie QB and other more promising WR’s means he will be not be getting a chance soon. Da’Rick should be dropping to round 4 without much question.
No tight end is being taken higher than where I would start considering them.
Tyler Wilson (ADP 4.05) – I think this is partially due to this QB class getting bashed so heavily. Tyler Wilson is solid and has been given praise so far in OTA’s. Seeing as Matt Flynn has in no way locked down the QB1 position, Wilson could very easily end up taking the starting spot by the end of the year. You mean I can draft a starting QB in the 4th round? Sign me up!
Mike Glennon (ADP 4.12) – While not uncommonly going undrafted, Glennon is another QB who could end up being the starter by 2014. Schiano is in no way enamored by Freeman and keeps publicly saying he isn’t impressed. If Glennon plays his cards right, while Tampa has another average season, we could easily see Glennon under center in 2014.
There are not any RB’s being under drafted, as everyone knows the importance of the position and what difference a starter can make on your team.
DeAndre Hopkins (ADP 1.06) – DeAndre is a really solid WR on a team with a need for someone opposite of Andre Johnson. As I highlighted two weeks ago, DeAndre is worth a 1.02 if you truly draft BPA and enjoy the safe pick.
Robert Woods (ADP 2.05) – When you are a good player and Lattimore and Zac Stacy are being taken before you, then you are being under drafted. Woods is a solid receiver who is even better for ppr leagues and is in the same tier as Hunter, Wheaton, and Dobson. At the 2.05, Woods is nothing but a steal.
Tavarres King (ADP 4.11) – Yes, I am aware he is on the Broncos who are currently loaded at WR at the moment. However, King is a receiver who will benefit from a little time on the bench and may end up being the #2 receiver for the Broncos by 2015. Welker isn’t getting younger and Decker’s contract ends soon which spells opportunity for a young WR who can be picked up in the late 4th round.
Travis Kelce (ADP 3.01) – While Kelce may enjoy smoking a bowl every once in a while, he is a good TE on a team that needs a starting TE. Kelce can catch and block and is very possibly better than Ertz who is also being drafted at the 3.01. Kelce in the late 2nd would be a smart pick.
Dion Sims (ADP Undrafted) – Dion Sims isn’t even being drafted. This means he costs you nothing and within the next year you will see what he is worth. He sits behind Dustin Keller (who has a 1 year contract) on the Dolphins. A possible starting TE next season that you can get for free? Well, why wouldn’t you pick him up?
*Here are all the RB’s taken since ’09 in the 5th round or later (excluding the 2013 class). (Any RB who has been fantasy relevant for a season is bolded) Chris Rainey, Vick Ballard, Alfred Morris, Cyrus Gray, Dan Herron, Terrance Ganaway, Michael Smith, Bryce Brown, Daryl Richardson, Edwin Baker, Johnny White, Jacquizz Rodgers, Evan Royster, Jordan Todman, Allen Bradford, Da’Rel Scott, Anthony Allen, Baron Batch, Jay Finley, Anthony Dixon, Deji Karim, Jonathan Dwyer, James Starks, Frank Summers, Javon Ringer, Cedric Peerman, Aaron Brown, James Davis, Benard Scott, Chris Ogbonnaya, Javarris Williams, Fui Vakapuna, LaRod Stephens-Howling, and Rashad Jennings.
Side note: Arian Foster was the only undrafted back worth anything from the past 4 seasons.
Do you have comments, questions, or concerns? Comment below and I will get back to you.