The final DFW Experts’ Rookie Dynasty Rankings has been released! Something like that. Heading into the draft this Thursday, this is where DFW’s rookie dynasty rankers, Gino Cerulli, Shawn Gallagher, Dan Hosler, Alan Satterlee, and Chase Wheatley, see the Top 36 dynasty rookie picks (prior to their team selection in the 2013 NFL Draft), a would-be full three-round rookie draft in 12-team dynasty leagues. To see all the dynasty rookie rankings heading into the draft please click here: http://dynastyfootballwarehouse.com/dynasty-ppr-rankings/rookies-top-50/
1. WR Cordarrelle Patterson – WR takes the #1 slot here with Cordarrelle Patterson garnering a Top 3 slot on each experts’ rankings.
2. RB Giovani Bernard – In a close second, Giovani Bernard just misses out on top spot, ranking 2.4 on average (versus 2.0 for Patterson).
3. RB Eddie Lacy – Shawn Gallagher was the only expert to rank Eddie Lacy #1 overall.
4. WR Tavon Austin – Austin moves up here in the final rankings, in part with Shawn Gallagher moving Austin up from #8 to #4 overall, although Gallagher has some caution, “The talent and blazing speed is definitely there and he’s rising fast”, said Gallagher, “although I’m not quite as high on him as others, as I’m just not quite sold on his smaller size being able to last a long time in the NFL.”
5. WR DeAndre Hopkins – Rankings varied wildly on DeAndre Hopkins, with Shawn Gallagher ranking him lowest, not even a 2013 dynasty rookie 1st-rounder at #15, while Dan Hosler ranked Hopkins #1 overall!
6. RB Andre Ellington – Andre Ellington drew rankings anywhere from 1.06 to 1.10.
7. RB Johnathan Franklin – Dan Hosler has moved Johnathan Franklin to his #2 rookie dynasty RB, “I like everything he brings to the table, including great vision and explosion, and those two components together can lead to some great things in the NFL,” said Hosler.
8. RB Montee Ball – Montee Balls weights in as a solid 1.08 selection, fairly consistently across the board.
9. QB Geno Smith – Geno Smith easily comes in as the top rookie QB prospect, averaging out at 1.09.
10. TE Tyler Eifert – A tight end looks to grade out as a 1st round pick in 2013 rookie dynasty drafts, with three experts ranking Eifert at 1.11.
11. WR Justin Hunter – Opinions on Justin Hunter are mixed. Alan Satterlee has him highest at 1.06. Says Satterlee, “Big, talented 6-4 dynasty WRs are where it’s at and Hunter has a ton of talent.” Dan Hosler has Hunter #25 while Gino Cerulli dropped Hunter from the #6 to the #10 WR over the last month. “Hunter plays smaller than his size,” said Cerullu, “I would like to see him be more aggressive. I’m also not impressed with his after-the-catch ability.” Hosler essentially agrees, “He (Hunter) could be the number one WR in this class but he just doesn’t have the mentality for it.”
12. WR Keenan Allen – With even more disagreement than on Justin Hunter, Shawn Gallagher ranks Allen as the 5th best dynasty pick in this year’s draft, while Gino Cerulli has him #27, not even worth a 2nd round dynasty pick. “I was thoroughly unimpressed with all the film I watched on Allen,” said Cerulli, “add in his horrific 40 time some drug test concerns at the combine and I wouldn’t touch this guy anywhere near his current ADP.”
13 (2.01). WR Robert Woods – Driving a 2.01 draft price (in 12-team leagues) in large past was Shawn Gallagher’s #7 overall ranking on Woods. Alan Satterlee was lowest at #21. Gino Cerulli, Dan Hosler and Chase Wheatley all see Woods as a mid-teen pick.
14 (2.02). WR Stedman Bailey – Opinions on Bailey were wildly mixed. Shawn Gallagher sees Bailey as a 4th-round type dynasty prospect (#46), while both Gino Cerulli and Dan Hosler think Bailey is a major sleeper this year, each ranking Bailey inside their Top 10. For Hosler, “Stedman Bailey is the exact opposite of Keenan Allen and Justin Hunter. Stedman plays big. He beats defenders, fights for the ball, has exceptional awareness/ball skills and excels with the ball in his hands.” Hosler goes on to say that “People see the height and see a slot receiver. This guy is far more than that. Bailey could be like Steve Smith (Carolina) – a smaller wide receiver that becomes a true #1 target for an NFL team.” Gino Cerulli thinks that “there’s nothing that Bailey can’t do and no offense he won’t work in. He plays much bigger than his size and is one of the safest picks in this draft.”
15 (2.03). RB Christine Michael – Christine Michael gets consistent low-end 2nd-round dynasty grades from the DFW panel, although Alan Satterlee ranks him highest as a high 2nd-round dynasty pick. Satterlee is no doubt moved by the sick Combine stats Michael threw down: 1st among RBs in both the 3-cone and 20-yard shuttle drills, 2nd best in the broad jump and 1st in the vertical jump, an almost unbelievable 43”. Not to mention Michael also showed off his strength with 27 reps in the bench press. Shawn Gallagher is starting to buy into the hype and moved Michael up from his #10 to #6 RB over the last month. Said Gallagher, “I’ve been worried about his off the field issues for awhile, but the talent and buzz surrounding him helped me move him up at the end, and feel that he could succeed if given the right opportunity and situation.”
16 (2.04). RB Le’Veon Bell – Le’Veon Bell’s average rank is a 16, but he takes a curious route to get there. Gino Cerulli, Shawn Gallagher, and Dan Hosler all rate Bell 17-18. Alan Satterlee jacks Bell up to 1.08, while Chase Wheatley has Bell down all the way to the 42nd best dynasty prospect! Buyer beware per Wheatley on Bell who garners a 4th round dynasty rookie grade. Ouch. Gino Cerulli moved Bell up two spots this month and thinks “He’s a value pick. I have a feeling he’s going to land in a very fantasy friendly spot, somewhere without a lot of competition, and his value will skyrocket. I just have a hard time finding more than 5 running backs to put ahead of him right now.”
17 (2.05). WR Markus Wheaton – That’s Markus with a K. Wheaton gets a solid mid-2nd round dynasty grade.
18 (2.06). WR Quinton Patten – Quinton Patton marks the second of three-straight WRs here with mid 2nd-round dynasty grade. Shawn Gallagher is down on both, rating Wheaton #43 overall and Patten at #30.
19 (2.07). WR Da’Rick Rodgers – Da’Rick Rodgers is a 2nd or 3rd round dynasty prospect with our panel aside from Alan Satterlee who gives Rodgers a 1st round grade (1.09 ranking). The former SEC receptions leader (2011) had an exceptional Combine, including a 4.52 forty time, and finishing in the Top 5 in the 3-cone, 20-yard shuttle, 60-yard shuttle, vertical jump and the broad jump.
20 (2.08). RB Marcus Lattimore – Once a sure-fire 1st round rookie dynasty pick (and if not the 1.01) before a second major ACL tear, Lattimore’s slide stops at #20.
21 (2.09). RB Zac Stacy – Somewhat of a DFW darling, Zac Stacy draws a 2nd round dynasty grade. Dan Hosler is the highest on Stacy ranking him #14 overall. Hosler believes “Stacy could potentially be the top running back in the class. He performed well despite being the only offensive weapon for Vanderbilt and teams game planning against him.” Added Hosler, “I am curious to see where he goes in the NFL draft and that will either fuel or extinguish my love here.”
22 (2.10). QB E.J. Manuel – With very consistent marks, E.J. Manuel easily weighs in as the 2nd-ranked rookie QB.
23 (2.11). RB Joseph Randle – Shawn Gallagher (#19), Alan Satterlee (#15) and Chase Wheatley (#17) all have Randle as an early to mid 2nd round rookie dynasty pick. Gino Cerulli (#33) and Dan Hosler (#40) knock him down from the would-be #14 slot in this ranking to #23.
24 (2.12). TE Zach Ertz – The draft’s 2nd-ranked overall TE goes a full round cheaper than Tyler Eifert (ranked 1.10).
25 (3.01). RB Kenjon Barner – Kenjon Barner draws 2nd (Cerulli, Hosler), 3rd (Gallagher, Satterlee) and 4th-round rankings (Wheatley). “Barner’s toughness as an inside runner is vastly underrated,” says Gino Cerulli. “I think he’s an all around solid running back with exceptional receiving skills. In the right offense I could see him being very productive and I do not view him as just a change of pace back.”
26 (3.02). TE Gavin Escobar – In short order, the 3rd TE is off the board, the near consensus “EEE” set of top rookie tight ends in this year’s draft (Eifert, Ertz and Escobar).
27 (3.03). WR Tavarres King – Landing King in the 3rd round of rookie dynasty drafts would be a lethal steal according to Gino Cerulli and Dan Hosler who have King ranked 1.12 and 1.11, respectively. Says Cerulli, “King is one of the smoothest, most natural wide receivers in this class. It continues to baffle me that there’s not more buzz on this guy. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t go a lot earlier than people expect in the NFL draft.” Adds Hosler, “King is 6’0″ tall but plays like he is 6’3″. He beats defenders deep consistently and has great hands. “
28 (3.04). WR Terrance Williams – Shawn Gallagher likes Williams best, ranking him #14. “I like his talent, and think that his learning experience playing with NFL receivers like Josh Gordon and Kendall Wright at Baylor will really help him transition to the NFL game quickly,” said Gallagher.
29 (3.05). WR Kenny Stills – As with Tavarres King, Kenny Stills gets a healthy bump in the rankings with Gino Cerulli and Dan Hosler’s relatively high marks. In Stills they see him as an early 2nd-round rookie dynasty talent (#13 for Cerulli and #18 for Hosler).
30 (3.06). RB Mike Gillislee – Mike Gillislee gets one of the most consistent set of scores: 30, 30, 31, 33 and 33. Gillislee was relatively poor in Combine drills but was 1st-Team Offense AP All-SEC last season.
31 (3.07). WR Ryan Swope – Ryan Swope likely can be had in the early to mid 3rd round pending draft outcome, although Chase Wheatley likes Swope enough to slot him as the 18th-best dynasty prospect heading into the draft.
32 (3.08). QB Matt Barkley – Matt Barkley’s stock has been somewhat on a steady decline, finalizing here at 3.08. Shawn Gallagher has been holding firm with Barkley, ranking him 18th.
33 (3.09). RB Knile Davis – Even looking at the best slotting of the five in the panel, Knile Davis still only garners a 3.01 grade.
34 (3.10). WR Aaron Dobson – Most of the experts have Aaron Dobson as a 3rd a 4th round dynasty prospect, Alan Satterlee’s 2nd-round grade keeps Dobson stock here in the 3rd round.
35 (3.11). WR Marquise Goodwin – Speedster Marquise Goodwin is the last player to show up on all five rookie dynasty rankings submissions.
36 (3.12). RB Kerwynn Williams – Kerwynn Williams gets the nod on 4 of 5 tickets, Shawn Gallagher has the one omission, while Dan Hosler fires Williams all the way up to the #20 slot. “Kerwynn is another guy with good vision and explosive ability,” says Hosler, “I think he is overlooked and dismissed as the change of pace running back but I think there is more potential there.”