Re-Drafting the 2016 Rookies: Part 2
By Luke Grilli, DFW Senior Writer and Co-Owner @LGrilli88
Annnnd we are back with Part 2 of the “Re-Drafting the 2016 Rookies” series. You can catch Part 1 HERE. Once you glance that over, continue on as I round out my Top 25 rookies from 2016.
14. Rob Kelley – RB – Washington Redskins
Preseason ADP- Undrafted
“Fat Rob” was basically a nobody after being an UDFA and plucked off waivers by the Redskins. Matt Jones showed flashes throughout the early parts of the season, but he fumbled away (literally) his chances of being the lead back in Washington. Eventually, Jay Gruden got so fed up with Jones’ fumbling, that he was relegated to street clothes on Sundays. By Week 8, Kelley was the unquestioned starter. If you take him numbers from that week to the end of the season and extrapolate that over a 16 game season, he is a 1000 yard back with 4 TDs. With question marks on the defensive side of the ball, Kelley should be entrenched as the every down back in 2016.
Projected 2017 Fantasy Outlook- RB18-RB22 Finish
15. Will Fuller – WR – Houston Texans
Preseason ADP- 1.11
Well, Will Fuller started off the season looking like the best receiver in the rookie class. In three of the first four games of the season, Fuller either recorded 100 yards and/or scored a touchdown. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, he failed to do that again for the remainder of the season and ended with a whimper of a stat line of 47/635/2. Throughout his rookie season, there were plenty of drops by the speedy but slippery handed receiver. If Fuller can get his drops under control (and Brock Osweiler gets his head on straight) Fuller will have plenty of fantasy value thanks to his elite speed.
Projected 2017 Fantasy Outlook- Boom or bust games. Boom= WR2 numbers. Bust=Waiver Wire fodder
16. Kenneth Dixon – RB – Baltimore Ravens
Preseason ADP- 1.07
I felt that Kenneth Dixon was being over drafted last season. Every rookie draft I took part in, Dixon was picked right around 10-12, but I never really agreed with it. It seemed like a bit of a stretch for a mediocre player headed to a RB group in Baltimore already filled with mediocrity. As expected, each week it was difficult to project who would be getting the carries…and it didn’t help that Dixon missed time with a knee injury. In the end though, Dixon started getting the bulk of the carries over fellow backfield mate Terrance West. Given the opportunity, he fared well at the end of the season and was able to churn out a few RB2 games to close out the year. Dixon will have a chance to shine next season, but like this past off season, I won’t be reaching for him.
Projected 2017 Fantasy Outlook- Hard to trust RB3. Maybe a PPR FLEX play
17. CJ Prosise – RB – Seattle Seahawks
Preseason ADP- 1.12
Prosise was one of my favorite pickups after Christine Michael’s clock struck midnight and he turned back into a pumpkin. Seattle cut bait and in came CJ Prosise, who looked dangerous as a pass catcher and runner between the tackles. After having a 7 reception game against the Patriots, and Thomas Rawls’ return nowhere in sight, he was destined for RB1 numbers much like the Seahawks runners before him, right? WRONG. After breaking off a long TD against the Eagles, Prosise suffered a shoulder injury and he hasn’t come back from it. A once promising rookie season cut short way too soon.
Projected 2017 Fantasy Outlook- Will be drafted as an RB4, but has high end RB2 upside if Thomas Rawls can’t regain his 2015 season form. I will be targeting Prosise in late rounds in 2017
18. Tyler Boyd – WR – Cincinnati Bengals
Preseason ADP- 1.11
Meh. That is how I would respond to anybody who asked me how Tyler Boyd’s rookie season went. After he was drafted by the Bengals in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft, it seemed like he would be the perfect complement to AJ Green and could be a WR3 for fantasy purposes. Even with AJ Green getting hurt. Boyd never really lived up to those expectations and finished with a stat line of 54/603/1. A big reason why Boyd never really lived up to the hype was because Brandon LaFell actually showed us he is still worthy of consideration as your fantasy WR4 (57/795/6). LaFell is a free agent in 2017, so Boyd should have a chance to prove his merit is LaFell moves on in free agency.
Projected 2017 Fantasy Outlook- Mid to late round redraft pick. Mid round dynasty pick. Could produce as a low end WR3.
19. Hunter Henry – TE – San Diego Chargers
Preseason ADP- 2.04
I thought that Antonio Gates would be retiring after the 2016 season, but apparently he is coming back for more, so that means Hunter Henry won’t be the go-to tight end for at least another season. With that being said, I can’t justify giving Henry 1st round value. It is tough to stash a tight end who isn’t projected to be the next Gronk or Greg Olsen.
Projected 2017 Fantasy Outlook- TD dependent TE2 in 2017. Should see a bump in value if Gates retires in 2018 and could be a low end TE1
20. Paul Perkins – RB – NY Giants
Preseason ADP- 2.03
Paul Perkins may have finished the season strong with a 100 yard game against the Redskins, but I don’t see him being a featured back in 2017. Rashad Jennings is still under contract for the 2017 season, but I have a hard time seeing the Giants continue to give him a huge role. Plus, Shane Vereen should be back from his 2016 triceps injuries. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Giants used an early pick on one of the great running backs in this draft, so that is going to muddy the waters even more in 2017.
Projected 2017 Fantasy Outlook- RB4. Perkins is a late round lotto ticket that probably won’t ever get cashed in
21. Jared Goff – QB – LA Rams
Preseason ADP- 2.08
I don’t want to call myself a Jared Goff truther by any means, but before we write the guy off, let’s remember he only has a season under his belt and if it weren’t for media and local pressure, he never would have seen a snap in 2016. Listen, it is obvious that the Rams need to do a lot of work to bolster their offensive line and receiving options before Goff can ever blossom into what the Rams front office expected he would be when they gave up a King’s Ransom to move up to 1st overall, so I’m not giving up hope just yet. It may be a three year process, but that’s the point of Dynasty Fantasy Football. Have patience and you may be rewarded.
Projected 2017 Fantasy Outlook- More of the same low end QB2 numbers. 2018 will be the year Goff blossoms
22. Kenyan Drake – RB – Miami Dolphins
Preseason ADP- 2.08
Did you see that wiggle at the end of the season? When given the chance towards the tail end of the year, Kenyan Drake looked like a solid complement to Jay Ajayi. There isn’t a ton of tape on Drake just yet, but I expect his role to grow as the back to spell Ajayi next season.
Projected 2017 Fantasy Outlook- PPR RB4/5 and Jay Ajayi Handcuff
23. Leonte Carroo – WR – Miami Dolphins
Preseason ADP- 2.01
I felt that Leonte Carroo was over drafted this past off season, but he should see his role grow a bit if Kenny Stills leave via free agency. Stills had a solid season where he reeled in 9 TDs, so I expect a team to throw a bunch of money at him. With a lot of their cash tied up in Ryan Tannehill and Ndamukong Suh, and a player like Carroo waiting in the wings, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Dolphins let Still walk. Because of this, I like Carroo to see a lot more playing time in 2017.
Projected 2017 Fantasy Outlook- PPR WR4
24. Paxton Lynch – QB – Denver Broncos
Preseason ADP- 3.07
John Elway knows what he is doing here with Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch. While the QB play may have suffered in 2016, Elway is in this thing for the long run. Giving Lynch a red shirt year (or two?) will only help this team contend in the future. Both QBs are on relatively low money deals, so instead of spending triple on a big question mark like Brock Osweiler, Elway is biding his time. When Paxton Lynch is ready, he will be a solid starting QB for this team
Projected 2017 Fantasy Outlook- Roster stash or mid range QB2
25. Austin Hooper – TE – Atlanta Falcons
Preseason ADP- 3.04
Austin Hooper’s rookie season was a bit of a disappointment due to injury and Jacob Tamme’s first half emergence (?), but the stars are aligning for Hooper to have a bounce back sophomore campaign. The Falcons didn’t spend a 3rd round pick on the tight end to not make him a large part of the best offenese from 2016.
Projected 2017 Fantasy Outlook- TE2 numbers
With their rookie seasons in the book, this is where I have the 2016 rookie class stacked up. Will these guys increase or decrease in value come 2017? Time will tell! Have any thoughts on where I ranked players? Let me know on Twitter or in the comments below!