blackmon horiz texas 2011 apjpg c19143d67af260a2 e1330982303134 Justin Blackmon   Top 10 NFL Draft Pick?Why do I have issues with a player who is being talked up by some scouts as a top-10 overall pick in this April’s NFL draft? He has the college resume with over 3,000 receiving yards and over 30 TD’s in the last two seasons. He seems to have good physical tools, but are they good enough to be a future elite WR1 for your team? We were spoiled last year with Green and Julio, but I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed if they are expecting that type of production and upside out of Blackmon.

Let’s take a closer look for a minute. Back to his physical tools, he is 22 years old, 6’1 weighing in at 215 lbs. Those aren’t the greatest measureables, but not the worst either. I can see a little Anquan Boldin in him and a little Hakeem Nicks as well. Hopefully he will run the 40 at his pro-day, I’m expecting high 4.5’s. But, I think that the times are always inflated when players workout on their home turf for some reason. No proof, but it sure seems like every player has a better 40 time at their pro-day opposed to the combine. I also think that too many people put too much weight on the 40-time, I truly don’t think it matters as much for a player like Blackmon. He isn’t that deep threat kind of guy like AJG last year. He is more of the Possession WR who will get a ton of short to intermediate passes. He can also make the tough catches. Here is a very cool Sport Science video profile for Blackmon link, it hightlights his ability to contort his body to make the tough catch.

I like Blackmon as this year’s best WR talent in the draft, but I think that expectations need to be tempered. He is definitely a top-5 pick in rookie drafts, but I’m not sure I wouldn’t grab a RB before him at the #2 spot. Lamar Miller, David Wilson and Doug Martin all could be taken ahead of him depending on landing spots. They are all very talented for RB’s, and have 3-down capabilities. It may come down to your team needs if you have to make that call. Bottom line for me is that I like Blackmon, but I don’t love Blackmon.