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The Daily Dose – DraftKings


By Bryan Sweet, DFW Senior Writer and Co-Owner, @FantasyFreakDFW

Welcome to your DFS Daily Dose!  Our goal with this article is to bring to light some players who can help you profit in daily fantasy football.  If you’re new to the scene, I suggest you read this post to get a general overview of what we’re going to be talking about in this article every week.  Once you’ve finished getting caught up, rejoin us for some strategy for taking down both cash games and GPPs on DraftKings.

LAST WEEK

How did we do in week six?  Let’s take a look back and find out.

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY PROJECTION ACTUAL
QB Tom Brady/NE $7,700 24.2 30.24
RB LeSean McCoy/BUF $6,900 21 37.2
RB LeVeon Bell/PIT $7,900 24.6 18.8
WR T.Y. Hilton/IND $7,700 20.4 7.9
WR Mike Wallace/BAL $5,200 16.3 13.7
WR Kenny Britt/LA $3,700 11.8 35.6
TE Martellus Bennett/NE $4,500 14 9.8
FLEX Cameron Meredith/CHI $4,100 13.7 25.3
DEF Chicago Bears $2,300 9.4 7
TOTAL $50,000.00 155.4 185.54

Now this is the kind of results we like to see!  I believe this is our best score so far this season and it easily cashed in any contest it would have been entered in.  Granted, I was surprised at the crazy game Britt had and slightly surprised by the score posted by Meredith, but I honestly felt this lineup should have done better.  Hilton had his worst game of the season and Bennett gave way to Gronk this week.  I’ll take the win though.  Did our GPP lineup have as much success?

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY PROJECTION ACTUAL
QB Tyrod Taylor/BUF $5,300 18.3 20.96
RB Lamar Miller/HOU $6,600 18.2 35.8
RB LeVeon Bell/PIT $7,900 24.6 18.8
WR Robert Woods/BUF $4,200 10.1 16
WR Tavon Austin/LA $3,900 13.2 5.6
WR Jeremy Maclin/KC $6,300 16.6 7.9
TE Delanie Walker/TEN $5,500 15.1 3.1
FLEX LeSean McCoy/BUF $6,900 21 37.2
DEF Pittsburgh Steelers $3,400 11.3 1
TOTAL $50,000.00 148.4 146.36

Our GPP lineup didn’t quite live up to our cash game one, but it managed to approach our projected score and still finished above the cash line.  Had Lamar Miller not come through the way he did, however, this lineup would have been toast.  The surprising return of a useful Kendall Wright killed Walker’s output and Britt did the same to Austin.  Much like the cash game lineup, we’ll take the win and move on to week seven.

CASH GAMES

Cash games are the bankroll builders of daily fantasy football.  Everyone wants to hit a life-changing GPP, but you’ve got to have money to enter those tournaments.  If you can be successful in cash games, and play a higher dollar amount in these versus GPPs, you should be able to build a sustainable bankroll to last throughout the season and beyond.  So, who are some targets on DraftKings that can help lead us to a profit in cash games?

Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,000, 19.9 projected points)
Cleveland has shown it’s not wise to plug-and-play the QB playing them every week, but this week seems like the right week to do it.  Joe Haden looks like he’ll miss the game this week, leaving little in the secondary for Cleveland.  In addition, Tyler Eifert may see some snaps this week, and a limited Eifert is better than no Eifert.  Dalton has been OK this year through six weeks, but he’s due for a multi-TD game, and this just might be it.  Oh, and he’s at a nice price point allowing for some studs as well.

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,300, 14.6 projected points)
Either Rodgers or Mike Evans (more on him in a minute) are going to be the highest-owned player in DFS this week, and likely be the highest owned at their respective positions.  Rodgers will see almost all the RB work with Doug Martin and Charles Sims out this week, putting him in line for 30+ touches as his floor.  They draw the worst run defense in the league in the 49ers, and Rodgers might reach value by halftime.  This is a set and forget pick, so don’t overthink it.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,800, 21.8 projected points)
Wait, two Tampa Bay players in the same lineup? Yes, because injuries have taken their toll on Tampa’s offense.  Vincent Jackson was put on IR this week, and we’ve already mentioned the RB situation.  Evans is already seeing double-digit targets, on average, this season and that number could approach 18 this week because of the number of plays the 49er offense runs, increasing the offensive plays of both teams.  Evans should easily reach value, and locking up Evans and Rodgers might ensure you get all of Tampa Bay’s TDs this week.

What might a lineup look like featuring these three players?  Let’s take a look.

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY PROJECTION
QB Andy Dalton/CIN $6,000 19.9
RB Jacquizz Rodgers/TB $4,300 15.6
RB David Johnson/ARI $7,400 21.3
WR Mike Evans/TB $7,800 21.8
WR T.Y. Hilton/IND $7,700 20.6
WR Pierre Garcon/WAS $3,700 13.3
TE Jack Doyle/IND $2,500 11.9
FLEX DeMarco Murray/TEN $7,200 20.7
DEF New England Patriots $2,900 11.1
TOTAL $49,500 156.2

Value plays at QB and RB allowed us the flexibility to slot four guys priced above $7,000 in our lineup, giving us a pretty good floor to work with.  Garcon should see a bump in targets with the absence of Jordan Reed and the Lions defense is not good enough to keep the slot receiver from having a decent game.  Doyle also gets a boost with Dwayne Allen sidelined, giving his TD upside a nudge up.  With just $6,200 tied up in Garcon and Doyle, the two need to combine for just 19 points to hit value for this lineup, which I think is very likely.

GPPs

Life. Changing. Money.  That’s the draw for GPPs with seven-figure top prizes and low entry fees, but how can one be taken down?  The easy answer is it can’t without everything going your way, but we can try and tilt those odds just a little by focusing on those with high ceilings and low projected ownership.  Let’s see if we can find some of the players who fit that bill.

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts ($7,000, 20.0 projected points)
Luck has struggled this season, and the injuries to his receiving weapons aren’t helping any, but eventually Luck has to have a “get right” game, right?  I suspect many will look to a higher-priced alternative (Brady) or lower-priced alternative (Dalton), making his ownership percentage very low.  If he can pull together another game like in week four of 2014 (393 yards, four TDs), he might win people a lot of money who took the chance.  I’m suggesting a triple stack with Hilton and Doyle, who will likely be the recipients of any of Luck’s TD tosses.  This might be my biggest reach so far this year.

Spencer Ware RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,800, 14.3 projected points)
Remember when Ware was the must-have RB earlier this season?  Well, the title is being shared this week by Jacquizz Rodgers (TB), Mike Gillislee (BUF) and Mike Davis (SF) because of injuries ahead of them on the depth chart and their very low prices.  However, Ware also had an injury ahead of him this week as Jamaal Charles suffered some sort of complication with his knee.  If Charles is ruled out, or even if he is limited, Ware should be in line for a huge workload against a poor New Orleans defense.  Ware has proven he can be a difference-maker, but this week you can get him at a severely discounted ownership.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts ($7,700 20.6 projected points)
Since Donte Moncrief has been out, Hilton has seen his targets go through the roof.  It seems like I said the same thing last week and he severely underperformed, leaving a bad taste in a lot of owners mouths.  That usually leads to depressed ownership the following week, and that is something we can take advantage of.  IF Luck starts to turn things around, Hilton will be a key contributor to that happening, and there is a chance that happens this week against division rival Tennessee.  We’re looking to hit big money in GPPs, and taking chances is how you do it.

So, can we put together a high ceiling team including these three players?  I believe we can.

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY PROJECTION
QB Andrew Luck/IND $7,000 20
RB Spencer Ware/KC $5,800 14.3
RB LeVeon Bell/PIT $8,000 23.1
WR T.Y. Hilton/IND $7,700 20.6
WR Quincy Enunwa/NYJ $4,600 13.5
WR Jamison Crowder/WAS $4,300 12.9
TE Jack Doyle/IND $2,500 11.9
FLEX DeMarco Murray/TEN $7,200 20.7
DEF New England Patriots $2,900 11.1
TOTAL $50,000 148.1

That’s a lot of “maybes” in that lineup.  Maybe Luck turns things around this week and Hilton and Doyle have great games.  Maybe Geno Smith will use this opportunity as an audition and target his WRs, especially Enunwa, a lot this week.  Maybe Crowder once again becomes the apple of Kirk Cousin’s eye in the red zone and finds a couple scores.  Maybe this is the type of chance we have to take to score big in a GPP.  Maybe I’m crazy, but maybe I’m right.

Well, there’s my prescription for taking down cash games and GPPs on DraftKings in week six.  We’ll schedule a follow up appointment for next Saturday to see how we did and look ahead to week seven.  Best of luck!