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The Daily Dose – DraftKings


By Bryan Sweet, DFW Senior Writer and Co-Owner, @FantasyFreakDFW

Welcome to your DFS Daily Dose!  Our goal with this article is to bring to light some players who can help you profit in daily fantasy football.  If you’re new to the scene, I suggest you read this post to get a general overview of what we’re going to be talking about in this article every week.  Once you’ve finished getting caught up, rejoin us for some strategy for taking down both cash games and GPPs on DraftKings.

This week is going to be a slightly condensed version as the holiday weekend has significantly restricted my DFS time this week.  As such, I’m just going to give my recommended plays this week and look to profit!

CASH GAMES

Cash games are the bankroll builders of daily fantasy football.  Everyone wants to hit a life-changing GPP, but you’ve got to have money to enter those tournaments.  If you can be successful in cash games, and play a higher dollar amount in these versus GPPs, you should be able to build a sustainable bankroll to last throughout the season and beyond.  So, who are some targets on DraftKings that can help lead us to a profit in cash games?

Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks ($6,700, 21.9 projected points)
Wilson seems to have finally gotten over the leg injuries that hampered his production earlier in the year.  The last three weeks, Wilson has put up great DraftKings points (26.28, 29.52 and 25.28), but his price doesn’t seem to have caught up to his recent uptick in production.  Add to that fact a generous defense awaits Wilson in week 12 in the form of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and he immediately becomes the most attractive cash game QB on the slate.  Tampa Bay gives up plenty of yards through the air (7.3 net pass yards per attempt) and Wilson has seen his rushing opportunities increase, meaning plug him in and move along.

Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers ($7,000, 22.3 projected points)
Gordon has been excellent to DFSers this year because he has finally stayed healthy and also has the backfield all to himself with the early season injury to Danny Woodhead.  While his yards per carry doesn’t look impressive (3.9 YPC), much of that can be attributed to his increased usage in the red zone and in goal line situations.  We’ll take a sub-4.0 YPC if he can continue to produce TDs at a 50% clip when given the ball near the end zone (eight TDs on 16 attempts in goal-to-go situations).  With fewer options this week due to three Thursday games, Gordon seems to be the safest RB priced in the $7,000’s this week.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals ($7,000, 20.3 projected points)
The Atlanta Falcons have been beatable on defense this year, especially through the air, and Fitzgerald is Carson Palmer’s favorite target.  Combining these two factors, Fitzgerald should get plenty of opportunities against a defense that has been suspect in the secondary in a high scoring game which equals good fantasy production.  On a full PPR site like DraftKings, he’s even more valuable because of his increased role in the offense.  Also, with Fitzgerald lining up in the slot the majority of the time, he will avoid Desmond Trufant, furthering his case for a good fantasy day.

What might a lineup look like featuring these three players?  Let’s take a look.

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY PROJECTION
QB Russell Wilson/SEA $6,700 21.9
RB Melvin Gordon/SD $7,000 22.3
RB David Johnson/ARI $8,900 25.9
WR Larry Fitzgerald/ARI $7,000 20.3
WR Tyler Boyd/CIN $4,000 13.3
WR Marqise Lee/JAX $4,000 13.1
TE Travis Kelce/KC $4,000 13.7
FLEX Rashad Jennings/NYG $5,600 17.3
DEF Tennessee Titans $2,800 10.9
TOTAL $50,000 158.7

There is a lot of value at the WR position this week, with Boyd becoming a viable play due to the injuries to Giovani Bernard and A.J. Green last week.  Also, Lee has become one of Blake Bortles’ favorite receiving options, seeing 22 targets the last three weeks and turning them into 38.9 DK points.  The Titans get to face Matt Barkley and should make life miserable for him this week.  Running backs facing Cleveland has been fantasy gold this year, and this week Jennings should be no different.

GPPs

Life. Changing. Money.  That’s the draw for GPPs with seven-figure top prizes and low entry fees, but how can one be taken down?  The easy answer is it can’t without everything going your way, but we can try and tilt those odds just a little by focusing on those with high ceilings and low projected ownership.  Let’s see if we can find some of the players who fit that bill.

Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants ($6,500, 19.4 projected points)
The coaching changes in New York along with the addition of Sterling Shepard and return of Victor Cruz were expected to take some time to come together, and that appears to be happening for Manning and company the last three weeks.  Manning has 23.88, 20.00 and 17.18 DK points the last three weeks and now gets to face a Cleveland team that allows nearly 22 DK points to QBs per game and a 20+ point day seems likely for Manning.  His ownership is never very high, so getting him in a great matchup at 10% ownership or lower is perfect for our GPP lineup.

Spencer Ware, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,100, 17.6 projected points)
Ware has been very good in replacing Jamaal Charles this season, hitting big plays on a fairly regular basis, much like Charles.  On the season, Ware has a 20+ yard play on seven of his 22 receptions and three rushing plays of that distance.  Many people will see the Denver defense and low projected score (O/U 39.5) and avoid Ware, but Denver has been vulnerable to the run this season.  The Broncos have allowed 100+ rushing yards six different times this season and plays much better against the pass.  If the Chiefs want to gain ground in the division, it’s going to be on the legs of Ware and a 4X value day is very reachable, especially with one TD.

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins ($4,700 14.6 projected points)
Parker has quietly become a key cog in Miami’s offense, seeing 18 targets the past two weeks and converting those into 13 catches for 182 yards and one TD.  Oh, did I mention he gets to face off against the San Francisco 49ers who have struggled to say the least against WRs this season.  The 49ers have given up at least 16 DK points to a WR in every week except week one against the Rams and week four against the Dez Bryant-less Cowboys.  If Parker can maintain his current level of involvement, I like his chances to hit that 16-point target this week as well.

So, can we put together a high ceiling team including these three players?  I believe we can.

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY PROJECTION
QB Eli Manning/NYG $6,500 19.4
RB Spencer Ware/KC $6,100 17.6
RB David Johnson/ARI $8,900 25.9
WR DeVante Parker/MIA $4,700 14.6
WR Larry Fitzgerald/ARI $7,000 20.3
WR Malcolm Mitchell/NE $3,000 10.8
TE Jimmy Graham/SEA $5,300 15.2
FLEX Thomas Rawls/SEA $5,700 19.5
DEF New Orleans Saints $2,800 10.4
TOTAL $50,000 153.7

David Johnson is hard to fade in any format right now, so getting him in our lineups is a priority this week.  The favorable pricing for Mitchell, who should see a little more work than normal despite recent news of Rob Gronkowski expecting to play, and our GPP selections allows us the flexibility to get Johnson in there.  Rawls has the Seattle backfield to himself again this week and is a great value facing the weak Tampa Bay defense.

Well, there’s my prescription for taking down cash games and GPPs on DraftKings in week 12.  We’ll schedule a follow up appointment for next Saturday to see how we did and look ahead to week 13.  Best of luck!