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The Daily Dose – DraftKings


By Bryan Sweet, DFW Senior Writer and Co-Owner, @FantasyFreakDFW

Welcome to your DFS Daily Dose!  Our goal with this article is to bring to light some players who can help you profit in daily fantasy football.  If you’re new to the scene, I suggest you read this post to get a general overview of what we’re going to be talking about in this article every week.  Once you’ve finished getting caught up, rejoin us for some strategy for taking down both cash games and GPPs on DraftKings.

LAST WEEK

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Our GPP lineup above was dragged down by poor games from Fitzgerald, Parker and Rawls.  Despite three single-digit scores, we still were just more than two points from the cash line, so we were on the right track with most of our selections.

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We did manage to land in the money with our cash game lineup, mainly on the strength of Kelce’s 21.1 points combined with his 7% ownership and 13.9 from Lee at just 3% ownership.  But, a win is a win and we’ll take them any way we can get them.  Let’s see if we can hit on both lineups as we head into week 13.

CASH GAMES

Cash games are the bankroll builders of daily fantasy football.  Everyone wants to hit a life-changing GPP, but you’ve got to have money to enter those tournaments.  If you can be successful in cash games, and play a higher dollar amount in these versus GPPs, you should be able to build a sustainable bankroll to last throughout the season and beyond.  So, who are some targets on DraftKings that can help lead us to a profit in cash games?

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers ($6,700, 23.3 projected points)
Somehow, Rodgers has quietly put up a string of very good games, yet his price on DraftKings continues to drop ($7,000 last week versus $6,700 this week).  The last four weeks, Rodgers has reached 3.48X value or better, and the Packers are still struggling in the run game meaning more work for the future Hall of Famer.  Houston’s pass defense has been beatable in recent weeks, and without All-Pro J.J. Watt to pressure Rodgers, another good passing day could be in store for Green Bay.  Rodgers did suffer a hamstring injury during Monday night’s victory, so monitor his progress leading up to kickoff on Sunday.  If Rodgers can’t go, a viable pivot would be to Russell Wilson or Colin Kaepernick at a reduced price.

David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals ($9,500, 28.1 projected points)
There is a chance Johnson stays in this spot the rest of the season with the way he’s been playing and his role in Arizona’s offense.  Johnson has been held below 60 yards rushing in three of his last four games, but has still averaged 29 DK points over that span because he is so involved in the passing game.  Johnson has a nose for the end zone and is on the field for nearly every offensive snap, meaning even at his high price, he is arguably the best value on the board this week.

Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons ($8,700, 22.2 projected points)
Atlanta is leading the NFL in scoring this season, and much of that can be traced back to Matt Ryan and his receiving corps.  Taylor Gabriel is going to be the hot name this week after he exploded for two TDs last week, but Jones carries the higher floor and sees the majority of targets when Ryan drops to throw.  The Kansas City secondary is decent, but there are too many weapons to stop them all.  We’ve seen Jones put up the top fantasy score of the year already with his 300-yard performance in week four, so the upside is certainly there but so is his floor.

What might a lineup look like featuring these three players?  Let’s take a look.

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY PROJECTION
QB Aaron Rodgers/GB $6,700 23.3
RB Melvin Gordon/SD $7,200 22.3
RB David Johnson/ARI $9,500 28.1
WR Julio Jones/ATL $8,700 22.2
WR Dorial Green-Beckham/PHI $3,000 11.6
WR Marqise Lee/JAX $4,000 12.7
TE Vance McDonald/SF $2,900 10.5
FLEX Jeremy Hill/CIN $4,300 16.1
DEF New England Patriots $3,700 13.1
TOTAL $50,000 159.9

Our first four slots each up a bunch of our salary cap ($32,100), so we’ve got to look for value at the remaining positions.  Green-Beckham has seen his usage spike recently, but his price has not reflected that change, so we can slide his in as a value play this week.  Lee is also seeing increased involvement in Jacksonville’s offense, but his price has not caught up to him either.  McDonald has become one of Colin Kaepernick’s favorite targets and has a knack for finding the end zone.  Those three combined need just 33.6 points to reach cash game value and all have TD upside making them strong plays this week.

GPPs

Life. Changing. Money.  That’s the draw for GPPs with seven-figure top prizes and low entry fees, but how can one be taken down?  The easy answer is it can’t without everything going your way, but we can try and tilt those odds just a little by focusing on those with high ceilings and low projected ownership.  Let’s see if we can find some of the players who fit that bill.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers ($7,400, 21.2 projected points)
Roethlisberger is a viable DFS option most weeks, but he excels when playing at home.  We all know how much better Drew Brees is at home, and he’ll be very highly owned this weekend, but Roethlisberger is nearly on par with Brees.  The good thing this week is we’ll get Roethlisberger at a discounted ownership because most will flock to Brees and his juicy matchup with the Lions.  You should get similar production (we’re projected Brees to score about three more DK points) but at a $200 discount and a lower ownership, which is important for making noise in GPPs.

Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders ($5,400, 16.2 projected points)
Murray has plugged along this season, not doing anything overly exciting, but has become the workhorse RB for Oakland and is priced low enough that he should approach 4X value if things break right.  Buffalo is a defense that has been gashed on the ground in the past (see Jacksonville in week 12), and Murray should see 20+ touches this week.  Murray is also involved in the passing game, increasing his appeal on a full PPR site like DraftKings.

Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints ($6,400 15.9 projected points)
Many players of DFS suffer from recency bias.  In other words, “what have you done for me lately?”  In the case of Cooks, he did absolutely nothing last week, seeing zero targets from Drew Brees.  Many owners were burned by Cooks last week, depressing his ownership heading into this week.  However, Brees is almost a lock for 300+ yards and 3-4 TDs this week playing a mediocre Detroit defense at home.  Michael Thomas seems to have captured the #1 WR role, but Cooks will certainly be a part of the gameplan this week, and possibly a large part.  One or two big plays and Cooks is at value, and Cooks has shown he only needs a handful of catches to hit 25 DK points.

So, can we put together a high ceiling team including these three players?  I believe we can.

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY PROJECTION
QB Ben Roethlisberger/PIT $7,400 21.2
RB Latavius Murray/OAK $5,400 16.2
RB David Johnson/ARI $9,500 25.9
WR Brandin Cooks/NO $6,400 15.9
WR Tyreek Hill/KC $4,600 14.1
WR Kenny Stills/MIA $3,900 11.9
TE Travis Kelce/KC $4,700 15.6
FLEX Jeremy Hill/CIN $4,300 16.1
DEF New England Patriots $3,700 13.1
TOTAL $49,800 150.0

The inclusion of Hill and Stills is honestly a bit scary, but their involvement at their prices makes them worth a shot in GPP lineups.  Both have a very low floor, but have exhibited a high ceiling in the past which is what we’re looking for.  Johnson remains a must-start in all formats right now, and Hill has the backfield basically to himself with the injury to Gio Bernard a couple weeks ago.  Hill’s price is depressed enough to warrant a look with the volume he is expected to see on a weekly basis.

Well, there’s my prescription for taking down cash games and GPPs on DraftKings in week 13.  We’ll schedule a follow up appointment for next Saturday to see how we did and look ahead to week 14.  Best of luck!