dk-daily-dose


The Daily Dose – DraftKings


By Bryan Sweet, DFW Senior Writer and Co-Owner, @FantasyFreakDFW

Welcome to your DFS Daily Dose!  Our goal with this article is to bring to light some players who can help you profit in daily fantasy football.  If you’re new to the scene, I suggest you read this post to get a general overview of what we’re going to be talking about in this article every week.  Once you’ve finished getting caught up, rejoin us for some strategy for taking down both cash games and GPPs on DraftKings.

LAST WEEK

dk-cash-13 dk-gpp-13

Another week with two winners on DraftKings, despite a couple poor performances that kept us from finishing higher.  DGB’s injury and general ineffectiveness from Blake Bortles and Colin Kaepernick led to subpar scores from Lee and McDonald, but Johnson, Gordon, Julio and Hill pulled us above the cash game money line.  On the GPP lineup, only Stills had a bad game, getting us a nice return on this lineup.  Let’s see if we can double down again in week 14.

CASH GAMES

Cash games are the bankroll builders of daily fantasy football.  Everyone wants to hit a life-changing GPP, but you’ve got to have money to enter those tournaments.  If you can be successful in cash games, and play a higher dollar amount in these versus GPPs, you should be able to build a sustainable bankroll to last throughout the season and beyond.  So, who are some targets on DraftKings that can help lead us to a profit in cash games?

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers ($6,400, 21.8 projected points)
Rodgers had a rough outing last week, fighting the weather and the Texans, but still managed a decent game (16.96 DK points).  This week, Seattle comes to town and brings that stingy defense with them.  The Seahawks did lose safety Earl Thomas for the remainder of the season last week, however, and his loss will have an impact.  Rodgers did see s slight price decrease heading into this week, and with little to no running game, Rodgers will be tasked to leading the team to victory on the strength of his arm.  Needing just 19.2 points to reach value, I think he gets there as a result of a short rushing TD and an effective passing attack.

Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers ($9,000, 25.7 projected points)
I mentioned last week that David Johnson might not find his way out of this spot for the rest of the season, but I was wrong.  Because of the weather concerns in Miami for this week, I think Bell becomes the better play.  Bell has nearly an identical skillset to Johnson, but is priced $800 cheaper and won’t be facing windy and rainy conditions.  Buffalo has been good against RBs the majority of this season, but they did allow David Johnson to gash them for 26.1 DK points in week three, and I think that’s an apt comparison for this week.

Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers ($8,700, 22.8 projected points)
This pick is more of a gut feel than anything I can back up with stats.  I can say that Brown has seen his targets dip the last two weeks  (six in week 12 and seven last week), but he’s scored four TDs and compiled 145 yards on those targets.  He is still one of Ben Roethlisberger’s top targets when nearing the end zone and has the playmaking ability to score from anywhere on the field.  I think he finds the end zone again this week and approaches 100 receiving yards, getting him close to our 3X value threshold for cash games.

What might a lineup look like featuring these three players?  Let’s take a look.

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY PROJECTION
QB Aaron Rodgers/GB $6,400 21.8
RB Le’Veon Bell/PIT $9,000 25.7
RB Jeremy Hill/CIN $5,800 17.8
WR Antonio Brown/PIT $8,700 22.8
WR Taylor Gabriel/ATL $4,300 14.8
WR Robby Anderson/NYJ $3,000 10.8
TE Jimmy Graham/SEA $5,500 15.9
FLEX Rob Kelly/WAS $4,200 14.2
DEF Atlanta Falcons $3,100 11.0
TOTAL $50,000 154.8

We got a couple cheaper options at RB in Hill and Kelly, but both are the lead back on their teams and should see the majority of the workload, giving them great value.  Gabriel might see more targets this week due to the injuries to Julio Jones and Mohammed Sanu and Anderson is Petty’s preferred target.  At just $3,000, if Anderson catches a TD he’s at value.  Graham is looking more and more like the dominant TE he was in New Orleans and Atlanta gets a struggling Rams team that is already focused on next season.

GPPs

Life. Changing. Money.  That’s the draw for GPPs with seven-figure top prizes and low entry fees, but how can one be taken down?  The easy answer is it can’t without everything going your way, but we can try and tilt those odds just a little by focusing on those with high ceilings and low projected ownership.  Let’s see if we can find some of the players who fit that bill.

Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills ($5,400, 17.4 projected points)
As most of you are well aware by now, Taylor’s appeal comes from his ability to run the football.  In fact, he’s had more carries by QBs from inside the 10-yard line then everyone except Cam Newton and has six rushing TDs on the year.  Pittsburgh has been stingy this season against QBs, but the zone read plays should be effective against them as LeSean McCoy has looked very good the last few weeks.  If Taylor can get a rushing TD, he would need an average passing day to hit value, and that’s reachable with Sammy Watkins and McCoy being so good in the passing game.

Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers ($7,400, 20.2 projected points)
It wasn’t long ago when Gordon was an every week, set and forget RB in DFS.  Recently, however, he has been surpassed by the likes of David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell as the high-priced guy to own.  Add in the fact that casual players will see San Diego facing the Panthers and assume a tough matchup and his ownership should be depressed this week.  However, just last week Seattle gashed the Carolina defense to the tune of 240 yards and three TDs on the ground.  Gordon is the bellcow back for San Diego and should get every opportunity for a short TD or two in a game projected to reach 50 points.  Enjoy the low ownership and high score this week.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills ($5,300 13.7 projected points)
There is no doubting the ability of Watkins, just whether or not he will be healthy from week to week.  Last week, still nursing a broken foot, Watkins saw a team-high nine targets and just missed on a couple big plays with Taylor.  This selection is absolutely a boom or bust pick, but with low ownership and a friendly price, the boom could result in a large payday.  You’ll definitely want to monitor his health status early in the day, but if he’s active he’s worth starting this week.

So, can we put together a high ceiling team including these three players?  I believe we can.

POSITION PLAYER/TEAM SALARY PROJECTION
QB Tyrod Taylor/BUF $5,400 17.4
RB Melvin Gordon/SD $7,400 20.2
RB Le’Veon Bell/PIT $9,000 25.7
WR Sammy Watkins/BUF $5,300 13.7
WR Antonio Brown/PIT $8,700 22.8
WR Robby Anderson/NYJ $3,000 10.8
TE Cameron Brate/TB $4,100 13.8
FLEX Jerick McKinnon/MIN $3,600 12.2
DEF Cincinnati Bengals $3,500 12.2
TOTAL $50,000 148.8

We’ve offset some of our unknown quantities (Taylor, Watkins, Anderson, McKinnon) with some high floor guys (Bell, Brown, Gordon) to create a solid GPP lineup.  Remember, you don’t have to be contrarian at every position to cash high, just two or three can make the difference.  McKinnon is not an exciting pick, but he is the lead back for Minnesota and is involved in the passing game against a Jacksonville team that has been mostly generous to RBs this season.

Well, there’s my prescription for taking down cash games and GPPs on DraftKings in week 14.  We’ll schedule a follow up appointment for next Saturday to see how we did and look ahead to week 15.  Best of luck!