The Daily Dose – DraftKings
By Bryan Sweet, DFW Senior Writer and Co-Owner, @FantasyFreakDFW
Welcome to your DFS Daily Dose! Our goal with this article is to bring to light some players who can help you profit in daily fantasy football. If you’re new to the scene, I suggest you read this post to get a general overview of what we’re going to be talking about in this article every week. Once you’ve finished getting caught up, rejoin us for some strategy for taking down both cash games and GPPs on DraftKings.
As the NFL’s second season begins, we can squeeze a couple more DFS weeks into our fantasy season, but be warned that short slates are tough to navigate. With so few teams to choose from, the ownership percentages go way up and missing on even one guy can knock you out of cashing. As a result, I’d advise going a little lighter this week and next because of the volatility. Still, I’m going to try and give you the guys I’m targeting and see if we can make a little more money this season. Here goes!
Cash games are the bankroll builders of daily fantasy football. Everyone wants to hit a life-changing GPP, but you’ve got to have money to enter those tournaments. If you can be successful in cash games, and play a higher dollar amount in these versus GPPs, you should be able to build a sustainable bankroll to last throughout the season and beyond. So, who are some targets on DraftKings that can help lead us to a profit in cash games?
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks ($7,000, 20.5 projected points)
Let me start by saying I think Aaron Rodgers will score more points, but Wilson looks like the better option. First, news surfaced that the knee brace he’s been wearing will be removed for this game, perhaps an indication the team will look to Wilson to resuscitate it’s struggling run game. Second, the Lions have been BAD against QBs the last few weeks, allowing more than 25.5 DK points to the position, on average. The Seahawks will likely lean on Wilson to carry the offense and he should provide a nice return this week.
Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers ($10,300, 27.2 projected points)
This may be the biggest no-brainer of the week as Bell is projected to score the most points of all players this week. With that assumption, however, comes a high price tag but I think fading Bell will cost you more than playing him will. His ownership percentage will likely exceed 60%, but if he performs as expected and you don’t have him, you’re behind 60% of the entrants already. Also, if he struggles you’re in the same boat as 60% of the entrants, so you’re not really losing anything. Don’t get cute here, play Bell and move on.
Odell Beckham Jr, WR, New York Giants ($9,100, 22.8 projected points)
We have a few high-end options at WR, but I prefer Beckham over Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson because I expect Pittsburgh to build a quick lead and lean on Bell to shorten the game and the Giants secondary has been playing well of late and I’m not sure Jordy has the upside of OBJ this week. Beckham can score from anywhere on the field and is going to be a favorite target of Eli Manning with the struggles Green Bay has had on defense this season. I do think Brown scores more points than Beckham, but Beckham delivers better value with the $200 savings.
Utilizing these players, and remembering our goals of 150 total points and players with consistently high floors, we could put together a lineup consisting of the following.
|WR||Odell Beckham Jr/NYG||$9,100||22.8|
We have almost 40% of our salary tied up in two players (Bell and Beckham), we need to find value at other positions. Zenner provides a RB1 option at a low price and he should return good value based solely on volume. Zenner has seemingly taken over the lead back role and should get enough opportunity to have a serviceable game. Stills and Parker are low-priced options, but should be involved in a game where the Dolphins will be throwing a lot to stay in the game. Again, this is a volume-based selection and should pay off as a result. Crabtree seems to be the preferred option in Oakland, but the presence of Connor Cook limits his upside. The TE position is almost a crapshoot this weekend, so going cheap with Tye and his TD upside makes sense. Taking Oakland is more of a lack of faith in Brock Osweiler than faith in Oakland’s defense.
Life. Changing. Money. That’s the draw for GPPs with seven-figure top prizes and low entry fees, but how can one be taken down? The easy answer is it can’t without everything going your way, but we can try and tilt those odds just a little by focusing on those with high ceilings and low projected ownership. Let’s see if we can find some of the players who fit that bill.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions ($5,700, 16.4 projected points)
If the Lions want to have any chance of going into Seattle and coming away with a win, it will most likely be on the arm of Stafford. Detroit’s running game is nearly nonexistent, and Seattle lost the captain of its secondary when Earl Thomas went down with a broken leg a few weeks ago. Now, Seattle’s secondary is still very good, but they have been susceptible in recent weeks. If Stafford can find a way to attack this defense with seam routes to guys like Eric Ebron or Golden Tate, the Lions could keep the game interesting. If things go according to script, Detroit is going to be behind and throwing anyways, so Stafford could accumulate some garbage time stats as well.
Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders ($5,000, 10.3 projected points)
Did anyone catch the quote from Jack Del Rio following last week’s game against Denver? “[L]atavius ends up with five carries. How does that happen? It wasn’t a great job of executing by the Oakland Raiders.” Do you think Murray sees all the work he can handle this week against Houston, because I do. Additionally, the Raiders will be relying on third-string rookie Connor Cook as their QB, likely contributing to a conservative gameplan featuring the run game. Also, when Murray gets 20+ carries, he hasn’t scored fewer than 19.1 DK points, so a 4X value day could be in the cards. This could create a perfect storm for our GPP RB this week.
Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions ($6,300, 12.5 projected points)
Piggybacking off of our write-up of Stafford above, it makes sense to target his #1 option at WR. Tate should provide a solid outing regardless of the outcome or game script, but a come-from-behind scenario would lead us to our best opportunity for points. Tate excels out of the slot and could present difficulties for Seattle’s secondary if Stafford can manipulate defensive backs with his eyes. Tate should see depressed ownership percentage due to the matchup, making him a viable option in our GPP lineup this week.
Here is what one of my lineups will look like this week, including the players I listed above.
We should have a solid floor established with Bell and Nelson, and opportunities should create a decent floor for Murray and Zenner. Stills and Tate are on teams expected to throw to stay in the game and Tye is the best value option on the board at TE. If Detroit can stay competitive, this lineup has a good chance of finishing strong in GPP contests this week.
Well, there’s my prescription for taking down cash games and GPPs on DraftKings for wild card weekend. We’ll schedule a follow up appointment for next Saturday to see how we did and look ahead to the divisional round of the playoffs. Best of luck!