The Daily Dose – FanDuel
By Bryan Sweet, DFW Senior Writer and Co-Owner, @FantasyFreakDFW
Welcome to your DFS Daily Dose. If you’re new to the scene, I suggest you read this post to get a general overview of what we’re going to be talking about in this article every week. Once you’ve finished getting caught up, rejoin us as we look back at the week that was and also for some strategy for taking down both cash games and GPPs on FanDuel this week.
Well DFS fans, this is it. The last weekend to participate in daily fantasy football. Much like last weekend, keep your money in play down as the volatility makes for a tough weekend to predict and profit from. I hope you’ve enjoyed following along this season as much as I’ve enjoyed bringing these articles to you! Maybe it was a profitable venture and we can look forward to increasing our bankroll next season. Enjoy your final dose and let’s see if we can make some money!
History suggests if we can hit 2X value overall on FanDuel, you will cash approximately 85% of the time. With a $60,000 budget to build our team, that means our target should be 120 total points. So, how can we maximize our chances of reaching that magic number? Let’s take a look at some players who should eclipse that 2X value threshold and get us on our way.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers ($8,800, 21.4 projected points)
Rodgers has been on an absolute tear the last eight weeks, tossing 22 TDs and no INTs! The loss of Jordy Nelson is concerning, but Rodgers still have a fantastic day last week after Nelson’s injury. Rodgers went 25-for-40 for 362 yards and four TDs and dissected the Giants defense en route to Green Bay’s eighth consecutive victory. The Packers come into Dallas as 4-point underdogs and likely will have to continue to lean on Rodgers if they want to escape the Jerry Dome with their ninth win. Rodgers only mustered 13.46 points when these two teams met back in week six, but this is a different Packers team and Rodgers should exceed the 2X value threshold we’re looking for in our cash games based strictly on volume alone.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys ($8,500, 21.4 projected points)
Elliott is almost certainly going to be the highest-owned player on this slate, mainly because of the $1,400 price difference between him and Le’Veon Bell. Dallas is favored by Vegas against Green Bay, and if they’re correct that means a healthy dose of Zeke to chew up clock and close out the game. Elliott put up 18.4 FD points in week six, and that was without Dez Bryant to attract some of the defense’s attention. Elliott is a three-down back and has a presence in the passing game (32 receptions on the season) and should be the focus of the Cowboys offense to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field as much as possible.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers ($7,400, 18.6 projected points)
We now know that Jordy Nelson will miss this week’s game against Dallas, although it was suspected all week, and Adams immediately rises to the top of the WR value heap. Randall Cobb was the biggest beneficiary of Nelson’s injury last week, but Adams saw the most targets on the day (12) and put together a nice line of eight catches for 125 yards and one TD. While Cobb is the big play threat, Adams seems to be who Rodgers looks to most often when Nelson is off the field. As mentioned above, we expect the Packers to lean on the right arm of Rodgers and somebody is going to benefit. Cobb is the cheaper option, but Adams has the higher floor and is a better fit for cash games this week.
Utilizing these players, and remembering our goals of 120 total points and players with consistently high floors, we could put together a lineup consisting of the following.
|DEF||New England Patriots||$5,100||14.6|
Word came out Friday afternoon that the NFL moved the Kansas City – Pittsburgh game to Sunday night to avoid the icy conditions moving through the Midwest, so that hopefully opens up the value of Antonio Brown somewhat. Ware might be the most valuable player for Kansas City this weekend as they hope to advance to the AFC championship game by controlling the clock and keeping the explosive offense of Pittsburgh on the sidelines. Richardson is our value WR and has become the clear #2 option in for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Witten isn’t projected to score the most points at the TE position, but should be plenty involved in the offense and should pay off his relatively low salary. The Patriots defense might be 100% owned this weekend, but they are arguably the biggest no-brainer play of the season.
The draw for these big tournaments isn’t simply to make it above the money cut line, but to turn a small entry fee into a big win. As such, the focus shifts to players with a higher upside than those in our cash games lineup, but also more risk to have a bad game. Also, we want to go a little “off the grid” and find players that will be owned by a smaller percentage of entrants. Let’s see if we can find a few players that could push us toward the top of the leaderboard in a GPP.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys ($7,700, 19.5 projected points)
The Dallas-Green Bay matchup is the best on the slate on paper, and checks in with the highest expected point total (O/U 52.5) according to Vegas. This game could very well turn into a shootout, which bodes well for both QBs. For our GPP lineup, we’ll look towards the less expensive option and lock in Prescott. Green Bay has been in the holiday spirit recently, allowing QBs to run up gaudy numbers on a weekly basis. Sam Bradford hit 25.78 FD points in week 16, Matthew Stafford got to 20.58 in week 17 and Eli Manning (in a game where his WRs couldn’t catch a cold) managed 14.06 points. Prescott lit up this defense for 19.48 points back in week six, and we think a repeat performance might be in order.
Ty Montgomery, RB, Green Bay Packers ($6,000, 12.1 projected points)
If we’re going to fade Aaron Rodgers at QB, perhaps we can double down on a less-than-stellar performance from Rodgers and look for a decent game from his RB. Montgomery doesn’t need to do much to hit GPP value, especially if he can manage a rushing TD. The absence of Jordy Nelson also could open up some opportunities in the passing game, increasing his overall value. With so few options this week, we have to dig a little deeper to find the low-owned options that can tilt the odds in our favor and Montgomery could be that guy this week.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,500, 8.1 projected points)
The recent emergence of Tyreek Hill and the evolution of Travis Kelce have seemingly made Maclin an afterthought in Kansas City, but he’s the perfect candidate for a GPP lineup this week. Maclin will be very low owned, mainly because of his struggles this season and the nature of Kansas City’s short passing game. However, Pittsburgh will certainly be focused on stopping Hill and Kelce in the passing game, leaving Maclin in advantageous situations he still has the ability to excel in. This is a true boom-bust option, but one that could lead to the top of the leaderboard in GPP contests this week.
Here is what one of my lineups will look like this week, including the players I listed above.
|DEF||New England Patriots||$5,100||14.6|
Notice all the similarities with our cash game lineup? That’s precisely the reason we want to limit our exposure on small slates like this. However, if our GPP picks pan out, just a few differences from the crowd can lead to a nice payday.
Thanks for checking out the last edition of the Daily Dose. Best of luck!